You can dismiss PAP all you want but there is ample evidence that pitchers that appear regularly on the top five experience decline - oftentimes significant - shortly thereafter. The cause and effect can be debated but if I'm a small market team I don't ignore the data. Here are the top five in PAP for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008: 2005 Livan Hernandez Carlos Zambrano Mark Prior Aaron Harang Barry Zito 2006 Livan Hernandez Carlos Zambrano Aaron Harang Dontrelle Willis Jason Schmidt (Zito was 8th) 2007 Dice K Carlos Zambrano AJ Burnett Roy Halladay Aaron Harang (Livan Hernandez was 7th) 2008 Tim Lincecum CC Sabathia Roy Halladay Justin Verlander (9th in 2007) Matt Cain (9th in 2006, 8th in 2007 at ages 21 and 22 respectively) (Zambrano 7th) Is it just coincidence that Zambrano broke down in the 2nd half of 2008 or that Harang was just plain awful all year? Or that Verlander's velocity has dropped? Like I said, you can argue cause and effect and say Zambrano was just getting older or Harang was getting older or whatever, but if I'm a GM of a small market team (or a fantasy baseball manager) I think long and hard before trading for someone with a history of abuse.