SoCal Brew Crew Fan

I don't understand...is Soup not gritty enough or is he just not battling?

All is about to be right with the world...Happy Opening Day everyone!!!

From the same people that brought baseball Barry Bonds the role model...now we have this Opening Day weather screw up. I'm beginning to hate the Giants. Either that or I've been in SoCal long enough that the NoCal hatred is starting to rub off on me.

If we still had 3TO he could have moved the clouds away with his muscles.

I like the Tigers over and the Phillies under.

Volatility. I can't figure out if they truly are a 100+ win team or on the verge of an epic collapse. I'm going to go 60/40 on those chances. I just don't see it being as simple 95 wins and a 10 game cushion on the division.

Very true it is a big deal, but here is the point (just not that eloquently) that I was trying to make. Last year Sheets and Sabathia combined for 47 regular season starts. However, Sheets was not the same pitcher after the Sabathia trade that he was before. In his final 14 starts after the trade he went 3-7 with a 3.58 ERA in 81+ innings. Considering he was out there with a bum wing that's solid work, but Parra and Bush likely matched that over equivalent stretches last year. If you combine Sheets before the trade and Sabathia afterwards, you've got the runaway NL Cy Young award winner at 20-4 in 33 starts with a 2.22 ERA over 239+ innings. If Gallardo can deliver 180-200 innings with a 3.00 ERA and the other 40 innings come from the bullpen at a league average clip, maybe that is the apples-apples comparison. It's a drop-off for sure, but someone help me out with the difference in expected wins. I guess I don't see it as the cataclysmic difference that the media prognosticators make it out to be. Take that out, a little better run production and a worse bullpen maybe offset each other. I think that gets you 85 wins.

At this point the Brewers seem like an 85 win team. I think it will take 88-90 to get the Wild Card and 93-95 to win the division. Reasons I'm optimistic - Starting Pitching - This Sabathia/Sheets issue is a little overblown. Granted if you combine the two - Sheets pre-All Star break and Sabathia afterwards, you had the most dominant starter in baseball. However, we didn't get Sabathia until July and Sheets was basically done by then. That and Gallardo only made 4 starts. The net effect of losing them is negative, but not as much as some make it out to be. I expect Yo to be a true ace (our top pitcher by far). I also like Soup to bounce back. I think he was hurt at year end. A healthy Soup gets an ERA in the mid-4's. Bush should be similar, not as bad as April '08 but maybe not at the level of the second half. The real wildcard of the starters is Parra. He's got the stuff, but has been inconsistent. If he steps up and becomes a legit number 2, this staff will be in good shape. I am a little wary on that happening for Parra. Lineup - They need to find a way to score 30-40 more runs than '08. With 5 players on the uptrend of their careers - Fielder (my team MVP pick), Braun (if the intercostal is ok he's an MVP candidate as well), Hardy, Weeks and Hart it can easily happen. I think Weeks can become that legit leadoff hitter and get that OBP to .380-390. Hart just broke down at the end of the year. If he stays consistent they are golden. Hall is a wildcard. It's been 2 subpar years and it is make or break time for him. Let's hope the lasix works. 3B was a big area of under-production and without 3TO, there isn't a great option to platoon. He needs to step up. Cam and Kendall just need to maintain and continue to deliver in the field. I think they get those 30-40 runs. Why I worry - This bullpen makes me nervous. Our bullpen was better than most give credit to last year, even with the high profile implosions of Gagne. Torres was a huge loss IMO. Aside from Hoffman, Villanueva is the only one I have any confidence in. I hope I'm wrong. They really need Riske to get it together. Injuries - This team lacks depth. It will be interesting if anyone at Nashville proves to be MLB ready this year, my guess is they are all a year or two away. Melvin will need to work some magic on the scrap heap to plug some likely holes that will come up. Overall, my guess is we fall a little short based mainly on the bullpen, but we are close enough that a player or two stepping up or someone above us faltering could make the difference.

A little postscript from last night...my daughter got very excited whenever Ryan Braun came up. In the seventh, he belted a long homerun. She got so excited; her eyes got big, her jaw dropped and she proceeded to whip off her jacket to show everyone around her Ryan Braun shirt. Later, she took off her Dodgers hat and asked if we could get her some more Brewers stuff for her birthday. I think she's hooked...thank you Ryan Braun!!!

I'll keep an eye out for you Louis...great jersey choice!!! Great memory hawing!!! On the day of game 162 last year I gave each of my kids a pack of baseball cards to fire them up...the first card my oldest pulled out happened to be Ryan Braun...how was that for a sign. We had his card propped up right under the TV when he hit the big blast. I brought back a Braun shirt for her from the playoffs...she loved it. He's been her favorite player ever since. Augie jersey it is!!! The Yount one has a few too many Secret Stadium Sauce stains anyways!!! FYI - The local UW alumni club has been meeting before games at the Dugout Bar on Sunset Blvd. not too far from the stadium. I'm not sure which game they are meeting before this weekend, but last year there were at least a hundred Brewers fans there. I won't be able to make that this weekend, but probably will when they come back in August.

SoCal Brew Crew Fan will be out at Dodger Stadium on Saturday night to check out the Crew. We'll be in the section behind the Dodgers dugout...or at the concession stand loading up my daughter with plenty of treats. I haven't decided which Brewers jersey I'm going with...either the road Yount or the home Jerry Augustine jersey (my 2 all time favorite Brewers). My daughter has diplomatically agreed to wear her Ryan Braun shirt with her pink Dodgers hat. Until the last couple years it's been a long time since April wasn't the best month to be a Brewers fan. I can't wait. If anyone is at the park, stop by and say hi! (edit: excessive punctuation --1992)

Maybe he could come back to Milwaukee to complete the circle. We could put him at 3B...I'd love to see Prince beat the heck out of him after he tosses one over his head into the stands.

Reminds me of Aaron coming back to Milwaukee in the mid-70's. There wasn't much of a team so having a legend come home generates some excitement with the fans. Going out to watch Hank was a thrill...I'm sure Mariners fans will feel the same with Junior...even though they'll likely only win 65 games. It's nice to see.

I may buy a Gagne jersey...terrific signing. Despite all the booing, the guy has really put out the olive branch to Brewers fans...I hope they reciprocate.

Spoke with a friend who does scouting. He says while Sheets can pitch through his current injury for awhile, it is often a pre-cursor to a more serious injury. Many scouts feel he'll likely have Tommy John at some point...it's not a matter of if, but when. That being said, a one year deal may make some sense...it's going to be tough for Ben to get a 2 year deal.

I'd love to see a salary cap too...but it will never happen. Between the big market teams and the player's association...it will never happen. We will probably just get more tweaks to the system to at least give the small market teams a chance if they execute perfectly...like Tampa this year and avoid from having too many "Washington Generals" out there that don't offer enough legit competition to the big market teams. Baseball views it in their best interest to keep the Red Sox and Yankees strong...and if they aren't they will always get the option to rebuild quickly through free agency like this year. The overall league and I believe even the players would benefit from the cap, but there are certainly big interests like the Yankees and Scott Boras who may have to sacrifice. No way they ever do that. One other thing working against competitive balance in baseball versus football is the playing life of the player. Also, it takes more players to make a difference in football versus baseball. Those items and the cap makes football more balanced and has certainly played a role (not the only one) in the relative success of football over baseball in recent times.

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Suppan was our #2 starter last year, this year he is #5 Aside from Gallardo missing his first two starts, most expectations had Suppan as our #3 behind Yo. I'd put him as our #4 this year, McClung had some promising starts last year but is likely still the #5. I guess I'm not as bearish on Soup as the board. I think he was hurt at the end of the season. If he returns to his career norms he is certainly equal to Bush and a valid #4...it will never justify the $12 million, but he should be steady. If the lineup can hold their own, with slight improvements from Hart & Weeks...the pitching probably puts them in the low 80's for wins. Maybe 2-3 wins less than last year's projections without Sheets and a lack of depth beyond the front five. They will need to sign another starter...even a #3-4ish one. Assuming these five make it through the year without missing a start in highly unlikely...that would at least allow McClung or Villy to fold back in if needed. To get above the low-80's total towards the magical 90 win level will take improved run production and fielding...I could easily see that...and at least a Team ERA in the upper half of the league...a little tougher to see right now, but not out of the question.

Bud tried to get a salary cap and couldn't get the union or the big market owners to go along. He got the luxury tax, but that was as much as he could. Even in the lockout they beat him in court. It's just the way it is and it will never change. It's a flwed system and there are too many vested interests in the status quo. Baseball will never be a level playing field and teams like the Brewers or Rays need to be that much better to even have a slight chance of winning in a narrow window. Baseball will always revolve around the Yankees, Red Sox and the other big/upper mid-market teams. Their TV revenues alone dwarf the Brewers total revenue stream. It's not hopeless...but it's close. It's also a big reason that football is now more popular than baseball.

Maybe the Yankees figure by signing everyone big in one year, they keep the draft damage to one year instead of losing a first rounder every year. This is really bad news for the Brewers...another reason to hate the Yankees.

Comparing the starting pitching is a little tricky. 1992 Brewers starters were filthy down the stretch, but never really repeated that success afterwards. The 2009 Crew could outpitch that group post-1992, but that 1992 group was better than the staff we had in 2008.

I was laughing so hard as I was reading TH's flawed logic, I just knew the bf.net board would be all over him. Thanks for not disappointing!!! As for the previous posts...yes, you are right, TH has no idea what he is talking about in this matter...it really is embarrassing.

I agree...maybe us DirecTV subscribers need to rally and write some letters.

They pick it up and he comes back. Hopefully, the Brewers can find someone to take on the closer role. Torres is so valuable as a 1-3 inning pitcher, it makes more sense to use him in high leverage situations earlier in the game...even sticking with him into the ninth.

So if FtJ sours on Macha...will he be exhibiting "Pure Machiavellian Hatred"?