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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    The NFL cannot be compared to MLB in a remotely useful way. FA still make squat in the NFL to be honest and it has only gone down as years have gone by. The leagues are just so completely different you can't hope to treat them the same.
  2. Ennder
    I'd love Vazquez but I don't know that he sees us as contenders.
  3. Ennder
    But again you are ignoring the selection bias. Teams in a position to make the playoffs add salary, those that are not in the position cut salary. Last year the Marlins had a top 15 salary and when it became clear they would not make the playoffs they cut salary to the point of being in the bottom 10. This was a team that was the biggest spender in the off season but probably fits in the bottom 15 list. This is also kind of a goofy way to look at things in the first place since the difference between the 8th highest payroll and the 20th most seasons is miniscule. Nobody complains about the 14th highest payroll in baseball having a competitive advantage, it is really just the top 4 or 5 that get the complains. The mid 2000s were definitely a dark time, it was before a lot of the revenue sharing was really impacting things and when the teams could basically just ignore the luxury tax. I think the past 3 years showing a 15-11 ratio says a lot. If baseball can keep things so that somewhere around that ratio stays it is in a good place. Also a salary cap is one way to change things and it causes a load of problems of its own. There are other ways to adjust the game and they have been doing it for a few years now. I think those results show they are on the right path if anything.
  4. Ennder
    The Mariners already are 4-5 deep in the OF and their DH is taken up so I really don't see this working. I'm sure they would rather see what they have in Bay/Ibanez/Wells/Saunders in their corner OF than trade for Hart. I'm not against or for trading Hart. I don't want to extend him so as long as they are getting value I'm fine with it. Seattle doesn't really make any sense at all to me though.
  5. Ennder
    There is no reason to think Segura matches Weeks in OBP or SLG so I fail to see the argument here.. Seems like you just hate low AVG guys and are out to ignore them as far as I can tell. Weeks is an elite offensive 2B and has been for years, if he wasn't such a mediocre defensive guy he would be a gold mine. Weeks is also an extremely good baserunner who chooses not to steal much because he has wrist problems and doesn't want to get hurt and because SB just aren't all that valuable.
  6. Ennder
    Also Hart honestly does project as a 1B or at best a LF. His defense in the OF has really slipped and his foot speed is way down. It really does suppress his value for any team that wants OF help and not just 1B help.
  7. Ennder
    His peripherals are actually as a legit high AVG hitter so it wouldn't shock me if he hit .300. I'd probably project more like .280 since he isn't fast at all though. .280 with a 6% BB makes him a valuable offensive C no matter how much power he hits for though.
  8. Ennder
    I highly doubt Segura is ever as good of a hitter as Weeks. He would have to consistently hit .300 to pull that off with his plate approach... that or change approaches.
  9. Ennder
    Not to mention they made the playoffs 7 out of 10 years from 1997 to 2005 so it is hard to call it a flawed strategy. They made some awful choices towards the end of that era and made some pretty bad drafting as well.
  10. Ennder
    I think we are probably just going into the season with very different expectations. I expect the Brewers to compete for a playoff spot and losing a win or two is a big deal. I also expect the team to try to maximize the years we have Braun because he creates a rather special window for us that we might not get again soon so any trade really does have to be aimed at 2013/2014 and not a true rebuilding type move.
  11. Ennder
    A near 900 OPS against righties the last two year is a major concern, that is large enough for me. in 2007 and 2008 he was just awful vs LHP and that obviously didn't mean much. In 2012 we are talking all of 75 PA each way, that is like judging a starter by a 4 start stretch. You just can't read much into RP splits, especially RP who aren't healthy and don't pitch a full season. His last full healthy season he was fine vs RP so if he is healthy and he is pitching well there is no reason to turn him into a LOOGY. They pretty much have to take a wait and see approach.
  12. Ennder
    What are we going to trade Hart for that will improve the team though? We don't need any position players, we already have young upside pitching to step in. Nobody is going to trade a good established SP for Hart. There just aren't a lot of trades that make any sense for Hart other than to trade him for a prospect that is a year away still. That doesn't improve us for 2013 and there isn't much reason to do it right now rather than mid season if things aren't going well. He has gotten so slow I'm not sure he profiles as an OF anymore and there is at least 1 FA 1B better than him still that teams can just go out and buy if they want. It is going to be very hard to find a realistic deal for Hart.
  13. Ennder
    Yeah I can't agree that Ramirez was better than expected, expectations were wrong from the beginning. I don't know why people assume he was going to be bad or fall off a cliff but outside of the one isolated injury he had that bridged 2 seasons this is exactly the player he has been for a number of years outside of maybe a little better defense than expected. This year's team isn't clearly worse than last years, it is just much higher variance because it has a lot less experience.
  14. Ennder
    His year to year splits are just so goofy I don't think you can count on him being any certain type of player. The samples with RP are so small they are almost useless so scouting is going to be key more than anything as much as people don't like that line of thinking.
  15. Ennder
    It is always hard to say with RP. If you look at his year to year splits they are just goofy. He had a few years where he dominated righties and couldn't get lefties out followed by a few where he dominated lefties but couldn't get righties out. Hard to say what he is or isn't.
  16. Ennder
    It is also useful to note that those stats showed selection bias. Teams who are not competitive trade away salary mid season and teams who are competitive tend to trade for salary mid season. Things are actually more balanced than those numbers suggest and those numbers weren't horribly unbalanced to begin with. The game can be improved for sure but the difference in salaries per team is not this huge monster in the closet that people like to make it out to be either.
  17. Ennder
    Betancourt is fine as a utility player where you can mostly slot him in vs LHP and hopefully hide is dreadful range at 2B more than at SS. I'm glad we didn't sign him but he has a use in the league. He just hasn't been a starting quality player for most of his career.
  18. Ennder
    I'd rather he put up good stats than bad ones wherever he is playing though. Sure you can't draw huge conclusions from it but if your the GM and he seems to be your only option as a starter at a position you have to be happy with his results. To me the most important part is that he put up a .379 OBP while hitting .324. If he can have at least a .050 separation from his AVG and his OBP it is a good sign. My big worry is he isn't going to carry a high enough OBP. A .070 separation would make me a lot happier but a player like him needs to keep at least .050 and they have to consistently hit .275 or higher to really carry much value.
  19. Ennder
    The NFL just is so different that it is hard to compare. When was the last time a big name FA came to GB in football. The reason I didn't copy football though is more that the leagues are so completely different. FA is just not a big part of the NFL because players careers are too short and single players just don't make enough of an impact outside of the QB. The NFL is structured such that good teams can pay less to keep their players and bad teams flounder around and have no choice but to rebuild through the draft. It is pretty rare for a bad team to turn into a good one in football unless they pick up a franchise QB in the draft. Parity is more about an unbalanced short schedule than anything, if you look at long term success of teams in football there are pretty clear haves and have nots. The haves are the teams with the great QB, the have nots are everyone else outside the two or three teams with truly great defenses. On top of this there is no minor league feeder system in the NFL. The structure of a salary cap would have to be wildly different from what we've seen in any other sport. Personally I don't think the salary cap really works in the NFL either but that is probably a discussion for another day. None of this matters because the player's union is too strong in baseball to ever have a cap.
  20. Ennder
    Considering the price it is almost impossible for this to be a bad deal. I'm a little worried about the rotation still but the team is shaping up to be a pretty decent bunch. We still need to get some luck or breakouts to have a real shot at the playoffs and hopefully that comes from a hot start or we'll end up selling mid season.
  21. Ennder
    More can be done with revenue sharing etc but a hard cap would be just awful in baseball. A hard cap is just a bandaid fix in the first place and there is no way the players would go for it. I think you are also looking at the problem the wrong way to begin with, just because teams spend money doesn't mean they have a huge advantage. The cost per win of a FA is so colossally high that building a team by throwing tons of money at players is just completely inefficient. I'm not even sure the Dodgers or Angels have playoff teams this year as an example. To use the NBA as an example. It will be harder for the Bucks to build an elite team than the Brewers even though the NBA has a salary cap. No big name player wants to come to the Bucks unless they grossly overpay so the only way to get the star players they need is to get really lucky in the lottery of the draft. A salary cap doesn't just magical fix competitive balance in sports.
  22. Ennder
    Guys like Badenhop aren't an improvement over Veras and they aren't even more consistent. They are just different about how they are very average, they give up strings of hits and HR instead of strings of walks. The reason people like these kinds of guys is because if they do magically find their control you get a Rodney type season out of them.
  23. Ennder
    Wow those hats both look really ugly. I'll have to wait and see the real deal before I pass complete judgement though.
  24. Ennder
    I think this safely sums up how worried I am about the Cubs!
  25. Ennder
    Nobody has dismissed the Reds and the Pirates have proven time and time again that they are a 2nd tier team at best, not sure where this is coming from at all. The Pirates epitomize the team that is treading water and not improving even though they should be.
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