liveforoctober

I thought this was worthy of discussion. I've seen multiple mentions of certain players having elite OBP 'skills'. At a glance, you get on base a few ways: hit, walk, error, hbp, etc. So what skill could someone possess that makes them 'elite' at getting on base beyond hitting? Drawing walks is the obvious answer. But what particular skills does having good plate discipline entail? Eyesight for pitch recognition? Zen to calm nerves? Batting stance to alter strike zone? Intelligence to understand counts and pitcher tendencies? Lorenzo Cain seems to beat out a fair amount of infield hits. A great break out of the box and home to first speed is certainly a skill that adds value. Other random and maybe even silly skills can be a factor too I suppose. Eric Thames is comfortable wearing a big pad on his elbow while batting which allows him to wear inside pitches... you could argue effectively hitting with a pad on his arm is a skill that allows him more opportunities to get on base in other ways. People on this board and pundits have used that phrase often enough "great on base skills" .. that it isn't just OBP (just hits & walks) they are talking about. What other OBP skills are out there?

I always thought Corey Hart looked unathletic and it always looked like he was running at 80% speed but like you said, he just had a big frame to carry around.

I can't speak for Stearns but if I had to guess how the Brewers are going to operate under him it is going to be what you just said. 1) Never lock yourself into a potential crippling contract, especially in the rotation 2) Assemble a roster of competent and flexible players 3) When the deadline arrives and you are in position to make a run, acquire the necessary talent so your financial obligations are half a season only for those acquired and not a multi year hit that needs to be offered in FA.

This seems like on odd take. We don't have a 1B or a 3B yet. Braun to 1st is only rumored at this point and if the Garcia signing happens there is probably good merit to it BUT I would say the only sure thing is that Hiura will be our 2B to start the year and one of Arcia or Urias will be our SS. To be down on the Anderson signing because you predict our infield defense (of which you don't know half of them) is going to be bad seems pessimistic for pessimistic's sake. If we trade for Seager and resign Thames is the Anderson signing now fine? I like a lot of your material but this seems to be jumping the gun for no real reason other than to scared of what could be. We have more guys to acquire yet.

There is no significant difference between making the World Series and not making in 2018 when evaluating player talent. They came one pitch away from making it. That means the talent was in place to make it. They don't need to change a thing. Also making the World Series being your only barometer for judging a team is just a really poor way to look at things. I would like to see them sign one more solid non injury guy for sure to add depth. It is not the only barometer, but it is a key barometer when we've an MVP player in our team. Winning the WS is a barometer and the key goal of Stearns and Mark A, I've heard them saying it. The Marlins, Royals, Astros, Cards and even Cubs have won the WS, it would be nice for the Brewers to win it at least once. As a Bucks fan, the key goal and barometer this season is to win the championship with our MVP player. The NBA and MLB could not be more different in terms of having an MVP on your team and that making your team championship worthy. If you have an MVP on an NBA floor he can control AT LEAST half the game if he wants just by having the basketball in his hands. Yelich can go entire games without a defensive chance and teams can pitch around.. making his impact minimal if they choose to. Trout is the best player we have seen in decades ... how good have the Angels been in recent memory? Having an MVP caliber player on a MLB team is a great asset and helps the team avoid offensive slumps as drastic as we have been accustomed to around here... but teams that win World Series need a 30 man+ roster that contributes throughout a season.

Couple of things...you're right, at best he's a solid 3/4...the problem is and has been, Stearns signs guys that should be NO better than really 4-5 guys and one of them has to be a 2. He's been playing russian roulette with the rotation and so far it's worked, but it's not sustainable. Which brings me to my next point..I see everyone when they sign a cheap guy like this say "well, if he bombs, he only cost xxx amount of money, as if the low amount of money mitigates the disaster. Only in reality, you shouldn't look at it in terms of what he costs as far as it not making it bad..the RESULTS are what end up being bad, and costing the team dearly if it doesn't work out. You can't say "well, he was bad, but he was only 5 million". The 5 million doesn't make it okay if he's bad. The results are the problem if they are bad. Finally, I see people talk about "well, I like this signing of so and so, because it still leaves them money to go out and sign someone for more". In theory, that's correct. However, they are sitting on a boatload of $$ right now, but the problem is....there isn't really anyone left to give that money to. At this point, to me, if they "use up" all of their money and have the same payroll as last year(for example), then they likely severely overpaid someone to use up what they have. What is your definition of a #2 pitcher?

My complaint last year was the lack of experience and stability. Which doesn’t need to cost a ton of money. While everyone said Anderson (Chase) sucked and wanted to dump him pre 2018 I told people he would easily end up one of the Top 5 guys come season end. There was so much inexperience someone was destined to fail and Anderson (a reliable starter) would take someone’s place. The problem this year is we don’t have that. Suter would be the closest thing ready to step in. Personally I would like three pieces considered reliable/experienced. Woodruff is one, Lauer is another, and preferably the third would be a solid mid rotation guy. I really don’t think Brett Anderson is that. All I am saying is I hope it ends up a little better. I don’t have a huge problem rolling the dice and then fixing in July...but consistently that is wasting resources and costing wins. It is very troublesome when they end up like Peralta/Burnes/Chacin and throw BP. There is offseason left and money to spend. We will see what they do. They may still add to the rotation or dramatically improve the offense. I appreciate this response. I do wish we would have had Gio from the onset last year as well. Cheers man, go Brewers.

How is making the playoffs deemed not working out? Because I believe there are 25 guys on a roster (more than that make an impact every year I suppose). Just because a a bunch of them did, doesn’t mean all 25 were automatically a success. I guess Travis Shaw worked out? We made the WC game. I didn’t say the team didn’t work out, I was speaking purely towards the opening day rotation. He made great additions, but let’s not ignore we could have had Lyles and Gio the entire season etc. He constructed a poor rotation to start the season, it just wasn’t good. He gave young unproven guys a chance and 2/3 were total flops. All I am saying is I hope he constructs a rotation this year that is actually good from the start and we don’t lose countless games for months trotting out 7 ERA pitchers until we give up on them and/or use assets to replace them. I thought last year's strategy was fairly obvious. Spend money to build a lineup, take the risk with the pitching staff. We didn't have money to do both. Your criticism of the opening day rotation is valid, but if you were in Stearns' shoes and it seems you opinion is you would have spent money on a rotation piece... you would have likely sacrificed either Grandal or Moustakas to do so. Would that have turned out different/better? Additionally, hand to heart what were you expecting from Chacin when the season started? I don't believe you would have said released mid season due to performance. If Chacin pitches as we were expecting him to, last year has more chapters.

I think for many it is because his name isn't Stephen Strasburg.

So what you are saying is that I could continue to have success with my bargain bin Windshield Fluid, but there is also a good chance that it will become a complete and utter disaster? I think correct and hopefully you have saved enough with the bargain bin fluid to get a steering wheel cover and a car wash. If the fluid fails, the steering wheel cover and car wash don't really matter... but if the bargain fluid holds up, boy are you in for a sweet ride

The rotation they wound up using last year, if you can call it that, looked like a 56-win team without context. They're going to end up starting 10 different guys anyway. This is just another guy, I wouldn't read into it. Yah and that rotation ended up a huge joke for the most part (the opening day one). Burnes/Peralta were worthless and Chacin flopped. We won't have a guy like Chase to save the day for one of the spots either if someone blows. There isn't really much depth. That is especially concerning when you are going to role with a rotation that is made up of poor track records, inexperienced, and may have some injury history. Yah, we can acquire guys in July, but that is 3-4 months of baseball you go through before that time. Poor performance out of the starters is going to cost a lot of wins in that case. I get the injury concerns... but B. Anderson pitched better than C. Anderson did last year... so, yes we will?

Does anyone have access to that hit spray chart site to overlay Seager's production last year but at Miller Park? 23 home runs in under 400 at bats while playing in Seattle... he is certainly a candidate for the Miller Park spike we hypothesize about if the offense is what we are concerned about here on the field.

I can live with Seager at full price IF the Brewers can get something good in return. Now, if people don't mind sending Tristan Lutz to Seattle, BaseballTradeValues.com indicated that in addition to Seagar, the crew could land Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18485/ Now, things get interesting. Seager may or may not rebound, but Dunn looks like the young #2 the Crew wants. Sheffield could slot into the pen. I would take the valuations from the trade value site with low regard.. it is hard to properly value non performance intangibles and other values specific to a franchise. If Seattle wants to offload Seager they can do so by just eating the cost and getting back a small prospect. I would be incredulous if the above offer would even be considered on their end.

*edited because you already responded to what I mentioned*

If the right deal is there to be made, I'm assuming a lot of folks around here would agree with you. But you can't just say "Trade him for a stud starting prospect and a lot more or you are doing it wrong!" ... because maybe such a trade doesn't exist. If you have any potential matches with organizations and what they have to offer, please let us know.

We already got one Urias this offseason .. might as well get the other!

So IF Knebel returns to be an effective reliever... ...a Hader trade right now makes sense because his value will never be higher. I prefer Hader in the kangaroo role of pitching whenever/wherever needed. I thought he was great as a closer. I thought he was elite in the specialty role. BUT, getting positive closer experience only upped his trade value with 4 remaining years of control. Stearns knows this and knows Hader alone could replenish the entire Brewers system if needed or fill the remaining holes on the MLB squad. Can't trade him without the right deal because our Yelich window is now, but if a team wants to play ball with Josh Hader ... I think we have to listen.

I love Hader. I really do. But if the Mets offered us the combo of Thor, Dom, and Lowrie for him I do it.

I know, I know. But I saw he elected free agency last month and the optimist in me wants to believe in another Jeffress situation. Let's minor league deal this guy and get him back where he only knew success?

I mean this in the nicest way, but I imagine being a Brewers beat writer with the current administration is extremely difficult if you are not able to imagine unique angles to stories and questions in order to have unique or 'breaking' content. Both Stearns and Counsell are so tight lipped and give such vague and pg answers that to create content that your viewers will find worthy, you really need to be creative with your approaches to stories. Please challenge me on this point, because I very well could be wrong, but how often does a Brewers beat break an off-season move? Does McCalvy? TH hardly ever seems to ... and when you are losing out on breaking news to national writers you are losing a big reason for your existence. Again, just my small take and I don't mean harm by it... I don't think Tom's job is easy.

You hit the nail on the head. The Brewers in regards to pitching sign guys that would normally be back end of rotation guys and make them amongst their top starters. NOT a sustainable strategy. In the entire HISTORY of the Milwaukee Brewers organization... please tell me one time that we've signed a free agent TOR guy. Never? Never! So why is it going to happen now that we have the most value minded GM we've ever had?

You can't be serious, right?? They need a LEGIT #2 at worst, none of those guys are even solid #4's. How do any of them improve the rotation significantly?? They might as well light their money on fire. We have seen enough from Stearns and his FO to know that they don't want a #2 pitcher in the same way you want one. They want to acquire someone who will perform at the level of a #2 pitcher and I think there IS a difference in those two things. Traditionally acquiring a #2 pitcher would be signing someone who has a track record of good success under most conditions. Those guys cost a lot of money. Stearns and Counsell believe (and have proven depending on your opinion) that circumstance, situational usage, skillset matching, etc can squeeze value out of guys. In theory, you can get a guy like Brent Suter and squeeze tons of value out of his skillset by limiting exposure, piggybacking with an alt skillset, throwing him against free swinging lineups, etc. You can increase value from guys like Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Lyles and Junior Guerra by doing the same. Obviously it isn't always pretty. Shaw was a great example until he wasn't. Chacin was a good example until he wasn't. Jeffress was a unique but good example until he wasn't, etc The point is, the only way we are going to sign a guy like Ryu is if Stearns and Co think we are getting him at a surplus value. If we are signing him for the money of a "#2" and Stearns believes we can extract the value of a "#1". If he doesn't believe he is getting surplus value ... the poster above you is 100% serious and those are the names we will be sifting through. Stearns will sign the guy he believes Counsell can extract a "#3" out of.

Steele Walker sounds like something I would pour over ice after a long day.

I know he needs to prove himself but I'm hoping Wahl can be that guy.

I think I'd rather keep the prospects and just sign Corey Dickerson to be our '4th' outfielder, mainly because I don't think that prospect haul brings Archer along with. I like Gamel, but if we are serious about having Broxton as the defensive replacement guy... Gamel's value drops a bit and I'd rather get an offensive minded 4th OF the spell Braun when he plays 1B.