nate82

The Red Sox went from a 90 win team to a 90 win team this off season. So 0 wins added from the addition of Sale. So yes if the Brewers got Bumgarner they would only improve by about 1 win as nothing else for the Brewers is changing and no this is not based on WAR. Now if you said Villar or Broxton would be replaced by Trout or a Harper level of talent then yes you would see a more dramatic increase in your expected wins. Positional players have more of an impact on a teams wins than starting pitchers for obvious reasons. Plus you are not replacing Garza for whoever Garza would be replaced by. Even moving down one pitcher to the next you are gaining at most 1 win over the season. Take 2011 for example the Brewers expected wins didn't change when they acquired Marcum and it only changed by about 2 wins when they acquired Greinke. That team without Greinke or Marcum was about an above 500 team with those two acquisitions it bumped the Brewers up to about an 88 win team. So they went from an 86 win team to an expected 88 win team and beat the expected by 8 wins mostly due to their offense was better in 2011 compared to 2010. This is flat out wrong. Other factors are involved I would empty our top 5 prospects for a #1 starter, I don't consider DeGrom a #1 But it is not. Offense correlates to winning more than pitching/defense. Replace your worst hitter with the best hitter in the league and your win expectation will go up more than if you changed your worst pitcher for the league's best.

The Red Sox went from a 90 win team to a 90 win team this off season. So 0 wins added from the addition of Sale. So yes if the Brewers got Bumgarner they would only improve by about 1 win as nothing else for the Brewers is changing and no this is not based on WAR. Now if you said Villar or Broxton would be replaced by Trout or a Harper level of talent then yes you would see a more dramatic increase in your expected wins. Positional players have more of an impact on a teams wins than starting pitchers for obvious reasons. Plus you are not replacing Garza for whoever Garza would be replaced by. Even moving down one pitcher to the next you are gaining at most 1 win over the season. Take 2011 for example the Brewers expected wins didn't change when they acquired Marcum and it only changed by about 2 wins when they acquired Greinke. That team without Greinke or Marcum was about an above 500 team with those two acquisitions it bumped the Brewers up to about an 88 win team. So they went from an 86 win team to an expected 88 win team and beat the expected by 8 wins mostly due to their offense was better in 2011 compared to 2010.

Adding a #1 or #2 starter to this team would be adding nothing. You would get a net gain of nothing as the win expectancy of this team wouldn't increase any higher than what it is by getting a #1 or #2 starter. Basically adding another #1 or #2 puts the team at an 81 win team instead of an 80 win team. You are adding one win to a team that is barely a .500 club to a .500 club. Why would you trade assets only to get a +1 win?

I am not sure what every ones definition of a #5 is but Garza is basically the definition of a #5 starter and at $5m that is an extreme bargain thus having surplus trade value. A #5 starter is going to give you somewhere between an ERA of 4.50 to 5+ ERA which is what Garza is doing. Their FIP and xFIP are also going to be around the 5.00 mark so again that is where Garza is. Garza next year will be around a 4.50 to 5 ERA which is your #5 starter. To get that same #5 starter in free agency that is going to cost you around $8-10m a year or you are going to have to gamble on someone who hasn't been a starter for awhile or someone coming off a significant injury and that is still going to cost you about $5m. If you want to get a pre arbitration player or even a player in arbitration you are looking at giving up someone in your top 20-30 prospect range. To get Garza it is going to cost less than a pre arbitration player obviously. You are looking at someone who might be a rule 5 pick or someone that is down in A ball or in the Dominican summer league. Trading Garza for that is how to positively use your assets just dumping Garza at the end of the year is how you negatively use your assets. Keeping Garza for another year is still a good idea as you never know when an injury is going to occur. Woodruff, Ortiz, Lopez, and others could all or some get injured between now and the start of the next season. Keeping Garza for insurance at a small salary is not a bad idea you may not like the idea but that does not make it a bad idea. Take the Mets for example they thought they had a lot of depth at the starting pitching level and now look at them. They do not have the depth that they thought they had one or two injuries can completely derail your depth if you just let someone go.

It is not off the table but I think that is the Brewers last resort option. From the people I have talked to in differing chambers of commerce that have been dealing with the Brewers and these situations is that they seriously want to stay in AZ. This is not just a fluff answer the Brewers seriously want to stay in AZ and Florida is really the last and final option. I have talked with the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce members who have dealt with the Brewers and the Peoria Chamber of Commerce members who have also dealt with the Brewers and they have both said this. I would give the chances of the Brewers going to Florida at about a 5% chance maybe even less.

Local stations are only available in certain markets. If you don't see your local stations that is because there is no contract with that local station at this time.

So Jim Edmonds would go with Diego?

Vegas is more of a speculation/rumor. There have been a few games played in Vegas recently and the teams have profited quite well doing this. Vegas is a concern but so far nothing has come of this concern. It may just be a ploy by the teams to get more money from the city or county to build a facility. I still think a AAA team would make sense here scheduling would be a nightmare but there is a AAA team in Las Vegas so the scheduling wouldn't be all that bad. Plus the AZL team can play on the practice fields if a game needs to be played at the same time as the AAA team is playing.

I did a similar project when I was working toward my MBA - tried to determine the economic impact of the Carolina Panthers. Nice perk was getting to visit the stadium, meet with Jerry Richardson, go on the field, etc. Eventually presented to people from the Panthers and various government and business leaders from the city. As you discovered, it was crazy hard to come up with some sort of accurate financial figure. It was basically a bunch of guessing and extrapolating. Like it seems you did, we really talked up the "intangible" impact, like how having professional sports teams makes a city a "big league" city and can help draw businesses and what-not. It was half B.S., but probably wasn't much different in that regard to what the pros do. All stadiums are losing propositions for the city paying for them. There is very little economic positives that funding a stadium brings to the host city and the negatives are far higher than the positives. There are some ways you can improve the economic situation but a spring training facility where you are only going to be using it 1/12 of the time per year is rather foolish. If the Brewers wanted to get really creative they could buy a AAA team and then place that team at their spring training facilities. This would then bring in more revenue for the city but that is still a losing situation for the city but at least you could justify it a little bit more. It is extremely hard to justify spending $70 million on a spring training facility. I am also wondering how long Phoenix is going to be a viable spring training spot. Las Vegas has been creeping up on taking some teams from Phoenix, I don't like the idea of this as one of the major selling points for spring training in Phoenix is the relative closeness all of the facilities are from each other. The drive from Phoenix to Vegas is about 5 hours.

hahaha I just talk about Broxton taking a fastball down the middle and this AB he does exactly that on the 1-0 pitch. Someone needs to tell Broxton to swing at those pitches.

Well it is a battle of the two worst teams in terms of Z-contact% take that for what it is worth. The stat is rather useless for about 3/4 of a season data would be useless for a seasons worth of data. The Brewers and the Rays are again 1 and 2 for SwStr% Brewers at 82.3% and the Rays at 81.3% for Z-Contact% Brewers at 12.0% and the Rays at 12.8% SwSt% Before anyone pipes in about the Brewers being bad at swinging at the first pitch they are actually not. The Brewers are at about league average which historically is at 59% currently the Brewers are at 60% F-Strike%. There are a few players on the team that are extremely bad at not swinging at a first pitch strike that is going straight down the middle fastball (Villar and Broxton).

All of the locals I have talked to here will not go near Maryvale at night. During the day there are only a small amount of areas in the Phoenix area that I would not go around. There are parts of downtown Phoenix I will not go near during the day or night. I forget what the locals call the Maryvale hospital but it is not a nice nickname for that hospital basically nearly all of the gun shot, stabbings, and other violent crime victims go to that hospital. In general the area around Maryvale is rather nice which is basically the definition of the greater Phoenix area. There are parts of Surprise that are not that good you can go from million dollar homes in anywhere in the greater Phoenix area and then run into am I in a third world country? Maryvale is not as bad as Detroit or Wilmington Delaware but it can be rather bad late at night. There is a reason why the Brewers don't play that many games in the evening at Maryvale.

Picking up Garza's contract would not hamper the Brewers from doing this and Garza's $5m is not going to help or hurt the Brewers in signing someone like Darvish. I don't think the Brewers should even think about going after anyone in free agency. The only starting pitcher I want to see the Brewers connected to in the off season is Shohei Otani. Darvish is going to get paid somewhere near $20m a season and the Brewers should not be going after someone like that way to much of a risk. Picking up Garza's option will be a smart move by the Brewers. There will be about half the league that would be interested in Garza as a #5 on their roster for only $5m. The Brewers won't get a top 100 player back in a trade but they will get a talented player probably someone who is in A ball or lower. Not picking up Garza's $5m option is just a foolish idea. A #5 starter on average is going to cost you about $8m a year for multiple years on the free agent market unless you pick up someone who hasn't started in the last 3-5 years and put them in the rotation then you can get someone cheaper in free agency. Even on the trade market trying to find a #5 for less than or equal to $5m is rare and if you do find someone who is going to cost less you are going to be paying more as the majority of those players are going to be pre-arbitration players. Pre-arbitration players have more value than $5m and even guys in their first or second year of arbitration are going to cost more in a trade than Garza. The Brewers right now have a surplus value in Garza on the trade market if they pick up that $5m option. You don't just dump a surplus value because you think you can spend that $5m better on something else. It would be better to trade that value for something more useful than a free agent pitcher who carries the same risk as Garza but at a higher price tag.

Gatewood is nowhere near an average SS at best he is just a tick better than Yuniesky Betancourt defensively at SS. There is a huge difference between Arcia and Gatewood just because Gatewood has a better fielding percentage which is a useless stat to even look at does not make him a viable option at SS. Here is why fielding percentage is useless if Arcia gets 1000 chances to field a play at SS and converts 900 of those chances while Gatewood only gets to 500 of those same chances and converts 450 of those chances which player is better? Obviously Arcia is the better SS he just converted twice as many outs as Gatewood did but Gatewood's fielding percentage would be better. It is just useless to look at fielding percentage because it doesn't tell you anything about the player. The majority of the scouting reports I have read on Gatewood state at best he could become an average short stop so that is his ceiling. With defense being a premium at SS having an at best average SS is not a good idea even if the alternate is a lower hitting player. Gatewood is where he should be right now at 1B. Defensively that is the best spot for him going forward he could have been a great 3B but he just never stuck there. Defensively he looked awkward playing 3B and he could just never settle in playing there. It obviously bothered him last year and his offense suffered because of it. Keeping Gatewood at 1B is the correct option going forward with him.

I shot Gatewood up to #6 as his average and OBP seemed to be improving. I think that dealing with the vision issue probably helped in that regard. I do wonder if it's not time to try him at shortstop or third some more. Granted Erceg is at third, but his defensive numbers didn't seem to be awful at either position. I say this as someone who was looking at the earlier offensive struggles, and dismissed him. Not doing so now. Just stop please stop this gets old. Just because a player played a position in HS or college does not mean they should play that position in the majors or the minors. Braun never should have been put at 3B he should have been put in the OF to start his career. Gatewood is not a SS and nor is he a 3B there is a reason why he is at 1B. He is just not good at SS or 3B he is about as bad as Braun was defensively at 3B and even worse at SS. He has no range at SS if you like Yuniesky Betancourt types then sure he can be a SS but otherwise no he is a horrible SS.

I agree Gatewood has put up some solid numbers at A+ this year. He has raised his OBP by almost 100 points over last year and a near 800 OPS in Carolina is actually rather good and has put up numbers similar to what Braun did in A+. Braun was 22 when he slashed .274/.346/.438 at Brevard in 2006 at 22 while Gatewood so far this year has put up this slash line of .268/.341/.443 I would say that is pretty good for a 21 year old in A+. I am not saying Gatewood is going to be the next Ryan Braun but he is having one of the better seasons so far in the minors. Once Gatewood gets out of Carolina I think you will see his power increase some more. Next year in AA is going to be his biggest test. I think Gatewood is probably going to go to the Fall League and I wouldn't be surprised if he is the talk of the fall league.

Reily you might want to take note that there are two Harrison's in the minors recently drafted KJ Harrison and Monte Harrison.

1. Brinson 2. Hader 3. C. Burnes 4. Gatewood 5. Woodruff 6. Ortiz 7. Hiura 8. Diaz 9. Dubon 10. Ray 11. Clark 12. F. Peralta 13. Phillips 14. Diplan 15. M. Feliciano 16. Lutz 17. Lemons 18. M. Harrison 19. Supak 20. Nottingham 21. Bickford 22. Erceg 23. KJ Harrison 24. Ponce 25. L. Ernesto ***********BONUS***************** 26. C. Rodriguez 27. Pennington 28. Medeiros 29. Wang 30. Ernesto Martinez 31. T. Williams 32. Orimoloye 33. Coulter 34. J.Betancourt 35. F. Mallen 36. T. Stokes 37. P. Abreu 38. JC Carmona 39. J. Sibrian 40. A. Ventura 41. J. Ward 42. T. York 43. N. Kirby 44. D. Williams 45. T. Taylor 46. B. Webb 47. Z. Clark 48. M. Reed 49. J. Lopez 50 J. Segovia

That is one stacked rotation: Sheets Halladay Oswalt Peavy Penny During their prime what would have been that teams record? Would that rotation in their prime be better than the 90's Braves rotation? Other than Penny that is like a fantasy baseball rotation!

I said this in the other thread on Gray and I will repeat this again. The A's were not interested in our second tier prospects beyond Brinson. While Clark, Doubon and others may seem fair the A's didn't see those players as having as much value as what they received from the Yankees. I believe Phillips, Ortiz, and one more was the offer Stearns gave the A's and they just didn't value Phillips and Ortiz more than what the Yankees gave up. The only way I could see the Brewers getting Gray would have been with losing Brinson and that would have been a historically bad trade for the Brewers.

3 St Louis (3-0) 3 @TB (1-2) 2 @Min (2-0) 2 Min (1-1) 3 Cinci (1-2) 2 Pitt (0-2) 3 @Col (2-1) 3 @SF (3 -0) 3 @ LAD (0-3) 2 STL (0-2) 1 Washington (0-1) 13-14

OK I might watch ESPN again on Nov 7th. https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2017/07/26/ric-flair-30-30-trailer-espn

It sounds like the A's don't like any of the Brewers other prospects beyond Brinson to headline a deal so I believe the Brewers are out of the running for Gray which is a good thing.

Your analogy is horrible. Trading Brinson to the A's for Gray would be like trading in stock for Amazon just to get a recent high rising stock. Gray is injury prone this is a fact and he is coming off a horrible year last year. Gray could turn into Lincecum next year and be absolutely worthless. Brinson has more value than Gray has right now and you don't trade from a surplus value for a neutral value. It doesn't matter what Brinson was traded for last year it matters what his value is now. Right now Brinson's value is higher than what Gray's value is. Gray already has diminishing returns so I don't see why MA would even trade for Gray as it would be just buying just to buy. The value for Gray is no where near what the A's are asking for and I believe Gray will not be traded as both the Yankees and the Brewers have said no to them for their top prospects. Both Cashman and Stearns are saying no to their big time prospects tells me that the A's are asking for too much in return for Gray. The A's are going to have to take one of the Brewers, Yankees, or the Astros offers which is less than Brinson or they will be keeping him. I don't see either the Brewers, Yankees, or Astros giving up a prospect like Brinson for Gray and that is the right move.

Already being discussed here.