CheezWizHed

I didn't mean to insult the Fonz...

Agreed. If he fails somewhere else, the Brewers are more vindicated as they didn't waste MLB ABs on him. But seeing the hot garbage we rolled out (and continue to roll out in the playoffs), it is head-scratching that Huira wasn't given a single chance. Winker's continued ABs was a joke.

I'm not going to rank them in 2 years, because there is simply too much variability... I'll rank them towards their trend (up or down) based on current position. I'll say that the Badgers will always be at the end of the list (especially FB) for expectations of a championship. The law of probability with so many legit reams make it improbable that either make it. Bucks: Trend - Slightly downward. Giannis, Khris, and Dame are not getting youger, but I think they will remain together. Beachamp and AJJ provide some upside coming, but age is our main enemy here. But we also said this after trading for Holliday. The buck's GM Brewers: Trending downward. Our SP pitching dominant window just slammed shut as only 1 of the 3 main SPs will return next year (yes, I'm assuming CB is traded). There is certainly some upside potential with our youth movement. So I assume a big downward trend next year... perhaps in two they can get back to where they were this year. Except we will be complaining about how we can score runs, but can't develop a TOR starter again (deja vu from 10+ years ago). Packers: Trending down. I'm still waiting and watching before I make any definitive statements, but Love is not going in the right direction. My biggest concern is that his one major red flag from college (accuracy) remains his major red flag today. Doesn't seem like that improved in the least. It wouldn't shock me if MLF, Barry, and Love are all gone for next year and a major rebuild is underway. Badger FB: Trending up. It takes time to change a team's philosophy, personnel, offense, and defense. There have already been transfer and recruitment gains. Results will follow. Badger BB: Honestly... I have no idea. Seems like we have some decent recruiting going on, but we still seem to be stuck in neutral. We were pretty bad last year (for our standards), so hopefully "up", but I don't see a NCAA championship anytime in the near future.

Maybe it will all come out in 20 years on a Netflix special... Huirer Things

I really doubt AJJ or MB are the starting SG this year. In the rotation defensively against certain players, yes I can see that, but I doubt they are ready for starter minutes. If either one sniffs the starting lineup, it would be great...but because they took a huge jump skill wise. PC still makes the most sense as a starter to me. He has similar traits to AJJ - smart, athletic, moves without the ball, rebounds - just shorter and shoots better. I think this defense will suit PC well also. Then let Beasley be the 6th man off the bench. I've heard that AJJ might be able to handle the PG responsibilities... Having him take some backup PG minutes on the second team with Beasley, Khris*, Crowder, and Bobby could be fun. *-not stating that Khris won't be a starter, but there is often start minutes overlap with the second team. Having Khris play a lot of minutes with the second team gives him more shot opportunities than with GA and Dame.

Noting that the OP was speculating a 2025 1st round pick. A 2025 1st rounder is essentially equivalent to a 2024 2nd round pick value wise and waiting another year. That isn't exactly true for a high (top 5; maybe top 10) pick, so I guess it depends on what you think about Carolina's chances in 2024. I do love Watson and his physical capabilities are very evident. But he is far from a complete WR also. Not to mention the injury issues. I wouldn't trade him straight up for a 2024 second rounder. But something mid to late round 2024 (equivalent), I'd probably go for. The real question would be "why would Carolina do that?" Do they really see someone that is a 1st round equivalent WR in him and a "must have" now? They wouldn't have two straight years of 1st round picks either.

I have a feeling (hope?) that our offense will be based more on motion and less on 3pt shooters standing outside while watching Giannis or Khris going 1 on 1 (or 1 on 4) inside and waiting on the ball. I expect more pick and roll and movement to go on in the offense now. So while Jackson isn't the ideal SG for the team... having him in a rotation at SG might not be the worse thing in the world. He would theoretically be strong on D and a great passer/slasher in a motion style offense.

There have been a few cases where it looked like the receiver ran the wrong route or wrong depth, but there are far more throws that are obviously off the mark or late (possibly the harder item to fix). When Love checks down the ball to the RB and throws it 3 yards in front of him or behind him, it is hard to blame the RB (since Love simply looks out at him and throws; not throwing to a route). And he has thrown many, many late throws where the DB ends up on top of the WR; several resulting in INTs. Two of his INTs last week were thrown late - one the DB almost was in front of the WR but merely bounced the ball into the air where someone else caught it. So if you are considering why Love has a 55% completion rate, I'd estimate it is a 25% receiver issue and 75% Love issue, IMO

Completion percentage was the big ticket to watch for with Love. It was his "red flag" coming out of college and continues to be his Achilles heel. Percentage completion and yards/attempt are kind of like the OBP and SLG of a MLB batter. If you complete a high percentage, but very low yards/attempt, you won't have much impact. Having a low percentage but higher yds/attempt is kind of like Chris Carter... will have high impact some games and negligible on others. Compare Fields and Love in the bears game: Fields: 65% completion; 5.8 yds/attempt Love: 56% completion; 9.1 yds/attempt If Love can get to a 62-63% completion rate while maintaining a high (around 8.0) yds/attempt, you can win with that QB. Rarely can any QB win regularly in the NFL with a completion rate in the 50s. Of course, the elites are able to complete >65% long term with a average of 8 yards. Since he was mentioned as a Love comp, Cutler for his career was 62% completion with 7.1 yd average. Rodgers was 65.3% and 7.7. Love is current 55.3% and 6.7, so he has a long ways to go.

All OLBs drop into coverage at some point. Yes, it looks odd, but it isn't like he is in 1on1 coverage on a WR. That is what zone occasionally looks like. Now, there are many other reasons to not like the Joe Barry defense...

I think each QB is going to be different. If a QB isn't ready to run the offense, isn't ready to read the D, isn't ready to know his protections... I think putting him out there early is a danger - physically and psychologically. Would Rodgers been great from Day 1? Maybe. Did he benefit from sitting one year? I think so. Did he need to sit three? Probably not. Likewise with Love, I doubt 3 years was best for him, but certainly one or two years helped him. Would Ryan Leaf been better if he sat and learned from a vet first? Or Zach Wilson? Peyton Manning was clearly ready to start day 1, but not all QBs are coming from college. Obviously, it is impossible to truly know... but giving them a year to learn and grow a la Mahomes, isn't the worst thing for a young QB.

I couldn't remember the whole list but I did the analysis a couple years ago. Best way to win a SB is: Have a HOF level QB. In the past - i.e. Marino and Elway were HOF QBs that couldn't win a SB to save their life (until Elway finally did it late in his career which took a HOF level RB to get him there). While QBs like AIkman (highly overrated IMO) won many due to the run game and big defense. Football is so passing focused now that the running game is almost an afterthought. Warner's Rams teams might have been the first team transitioning towards that. With rule changes (e.g. increased PI rules, QB protections), the league doubled down on high offense. But the result is that the SB champion typically goes to the team with the best QB at that moment. How many SB MVPs of the last 20 years weren't QBs? So yes, Mahomes and Brady have a virtual monopoly on SB wins because they were most often the best QB of the moment. I think those ironically are the only two that won a SB before the final year of their rookie contract also. Inexperienced QBs have a tough time beating the best of the best. So if you want to deploy the QB on the rookie contract rule, you better have an awesome defense or you better find that next "special HOF-level" QB.

Again, I don't know that QBs are any more ready to start in the NFL today than they ever were... Some will be; some won't be; some won't ever be. I think 3 years is a bit steep to be "the norm". It worked for Rodgers. Love's initial returns aren't very positive. Favre clearly benefited from 1 year. Peyton Manning was ready almost immediately. Each individual will have their own growth curve. Ryan Leaf would never be ready. Nor Manziel. But I don't think it is odd to say a QB could use a year of development and learning before being thrown into the fire of the NFL. It is basically like going from AAA to MLB - the biggest jump. Especially those QBs that are going to play on bad teams (i.e. #1 draft picks). Sitting a year to understand your protection calls is probably a self-preservation move. Lots of QBs make bad habits that derail their development too. My point about not many QBs win the SB on a rookie contract is simply... wining the SB is hard. And it takes a few years of development to be that top echelon to do it. The ones that have are almost always sure fire HOF QBs. So while I don't doubt the logic behind "cheap QB" better chances... the inexperience of that cheap QB normally derails the team's chance at some point.

The bigger, bigger question is what is the probability of next year being a division championship year? Our strong SP window is closed (Burnes being traded, Woody being injured) Our offense needs an overhaul Our current strength is in our youth. So if you think that last season was probably Yelich's future peak (i.e. all downhill from there) and you want to reboot and build around our young core.... and you have an opportunity to move him for future financial flexibility... That is why you trade him.

Wasn't there some odd loophole with us not calling him up that prevented Huira from going into FA? Here is me dreaming about having 2016 Chris Carter at 1B for the Brewers in 2023...

But how is that different than the past? I'd say none frankly. If you draft a 1st round QB, there is huge pressure to start him. The slotted rookie salary cap actually reduced that pressure, but fans still scream to start the next guy if the current guy falters.

But rarely do teams win a SB with a QB on a rookie contract. I think since 2000 it came down to Mahomes and Brady (maybe one more that I'm forgetting). So like 3-4 SBs in 23 years. It makes logical sense (having a cheap QB), but it rarely happens.

Love has a lot of positive qualities - poise in the pocket, strong arm, good speed. But his accuracy was always a concern from his college days. He shows glimpses as to what could be... but just can't get the consistency yet. Very hot and cold at QB. His game time decisions were more of the "unknown" as he simply didn't have a chance. Obviously, he is diagnosing the defense slowly which leads to late decisions and late throws. His first pick was a bad defensive read and his last two were the result of late throws. Every game this season, he has thrown to WRs when they were covered (i.e. late throws) and was lucky to not have INTs then... the table turned last night for him, but he has been making those throws consistently late. It will be interesting to see what improvements can be made as the season goes on. Hopefully the game will slow down and he can start making those reads better. But right now... he is looking a lot like an early Justin Fields.

I've seen this a couple times in this thread and disagree. I think people have forgotten the rookie QB deals of the past before the rookie slotted cap... QBs were signing HUGE deals right out of college; especially if you were a top 10 pick. Teams were forced to play them right away. Just the fact that Love, Mahomes, and Rodgers (perhaps other first round picks too) have the chance to sit for at least the first year shows that QBs are forced to start less than they used to. When the Packer drafted Rodgers and sat him, it was literally unheard of. What evidence is there that QBs are forced to start more now days?

Sure, but what are our realistic chances of getting either one? Garver is a C, so we aren't going to pay $$ to replace Contreras for minimal upgrade (if he is an upgrade). What will Hoskins cost? Can we outbid others? The answer is normally no. It could happen, but it just normally doesn't. Our history of acquiring high OBP and SLG hitters is draft or trade. In recent history, our best FA signings would be: 1) LoCain - mostly defense, high OBP, low SLG 2) Yasmani Grandal - a unique opportunity for a one year deal. High OBP/ med SLG 3) Aramis Ramirez - a end of career guy who was high SLG and OBP initially, but slid to just low-med SLG and very low OBP at the end. That is pretty much it for the last 10 years.

About the same as I predicted in June (well, August) without knowing all that.

Watson should've fought for that ball harder. Falling backwards, but did nothing to try to knock it out. I've said it all along that this year was all about finding out who Love is. Bears fans are still telling us that Fields is "it". I'm not ready to give up on Love, but he is certainly trending the wrong way.

Death and taxes are the only things you can be sure about.

I don't know why or how people thought we were going to have 10 wins and take the division... this clearly was going to be a growth and evaluation year. Love - jury still out, but looking very inconsistent. Likes to make throws to covered WRs WRs - young, talented, lots to learn. Barry defense - failed.

Interesting how cycles go... a few years back, we had too many power bats that struggled to score when we couldn't hit HRs. Now we can hit 3 singles in an inning and still not score. Obviously, the high OBP+ high SLG hitters are rare and in high demand, so I have to assume draft them or trade for them. IMO, high OBP guys come priority over high SLG, but is it better to be leaning one way or try to balance that? Kind of a Frelick vs Adames "type of bat" discussion.