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Eye Black

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Everything posted by Eye Black

  1. Eye Black
    Huh, didn’t see that coming.
  2. Eye Black
    The Rangers had the 4th best starting rotation in baseball last season as measured by Wins Above Average and they have added several additional arms this off-season. I don't normally think of the Rangers as strong in pitching, but last year both their starters and bullpen performed very well, and they are adding some solid reinforcements.
  3. Eye Black
    Mike Murphy from ESPN 1000 in Chicago is claiming the Cubs have a deal in place with Nick Castellanos, but have allegedly been waiting to announce it. Decide for yourself, the audio is included in this Twitter Link.
  4. Eye Black
    I was just referring to guaranteed free agent contracts. With Jeffress he obviously traded him away and then traded back for him, but did he sign him to a multi-year deal as a free agent? I didn’t think so, but I could be mistaken. Edit: Found it (Link), the Jeffress deal was considered a one year contract with two club options. So technically just a one year guarantee.
  5. Eye Black
    This is Stearns’ 5th off-season with the team since taking over the team operations in the Fall of 2015. Is this three year deal for Lindblom only the third time he has given out a free agent deal that surpassed two years? Thames signed a three year guarantee and Cain signed a five year contract. Other than that I can only think of two deals that were two years in length (Chacin and Albers). Beyond that I believe every free agent deal the Brewers have done since Stearns took over have been one year deals. Am I missing any additional free agent deals that were greater than one year? It’s sort of amazing that they operate almost exclusively on short term deals in free agency, and two of the longest contracts have been for players coming back to MLB from the KBO.
  6. Eye Black
    I will be content if the team adds Avisail Garcia. I think he has a decent chance to be a slightly above average player at a fraction of the cost as compared to some of the “bigger name” corner outfielders on the market. If he is ultimately their biggest remaining offensive addition this offseason then I will be disappointed. In a vacuum I would prefer Castellanos, even at a much higher cost, simply because I have a gut feeling he is about to unlock another level, but hopefully saving some money on the corner outfielder (not to mention the cost savings already on so many other places on the roster) will allow the team to take on some money to add an impact bat at one of the corner infield spots (likely via trade). Of the 122 games he started for the 96-win Rays team last year below are the number of starts Garcia had in each spot in the batting order... 1st: 9 starts 2nd: 1 start 3rd: 4 starts 4th: 50 starts 5th: 26 starts 6th: 23 starts 7th: 9 starts For the Brewers he would ideally be a guy they’d be starting in the 6th spot in the order more often than 4th/5th, but that would obviously require another impact bat being added to the lineup.
  7. Eye Black
    I think the problem is the Giants are at the start of a rebuild and have plenty of money, so trading away one of their top prospects just to move Belt is not something they are likely willing to do (nor should they). The best bet to make it work would be the Giants basically giving him away for a Brewers’ fringe prospect and including a significant amount of money towards his salary. If they included $15-20 million in the deal then it seems somewhat more likely.
  8. Eye Black
    He’s an okay player, but he’s also owed $34.4 million over the next two years (his age 32 and 33 seasons). Unlike the Angels did when sending a top prospect to the Giants along with Zack Cosart, I don’t think the Giants are going to be willing to send prospects along with an overpriced player. Maybe there is someone else on their roster they would package? Edit: If the Giants included someone like Reyes Moronta (which they probably wouldn’t), I would be much more into it.
  9. Eye Black
    That legit made me LOL.
  10. Eye Black
    He is 250lbs (probably a little more) and has the exact same 90ft sprint speed as Lorenzo Cain. Edit: At the Statcast link you can watch a virtual race between the two.
  11. Eye Black
    I can't wait until a year from now when we have a thread bemoaning the fact that Anderson just signed a 3 year, $40 million deal elsewhere.
  12. Eye Black
    The only "upper tier" pitchers I can even remember this front office being verifiably linked to are Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish. I am probably forgetting someone else... maybe? After the reportedly near miss on the Quintana trade I always assumed they would go after some other established starter in the (near) future, yet here we are.
  13. Eye Black
    I don't think we should discount the possibility that the Brewers might actually be better than other teams when it comes to unlocking pitching success in veterans. They have a significant amount of data on these pitchers that have thrown 100's of MLB innings. Maybe they have a plan for utilizing various parts of Anderson's current repertoire while developing a new usage pattern or other possible tweaks. Let's take a look at the pitcher Charlie Morton was during his career with the Pirates. Charlie Morton through Age 31 season... [pre]ERA G IP ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 4.54 158 875.2 84 4.12 1.443 9.6 0.7 3.4 6.3 1.86[/pre] After a year with the Phillies he went to the Astros where he started throwing his curveball nearly 30% of the time. Since he threw his first pitch for the Astros as a 33 year old his numbers are as follows... [pre]ERA G IP ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 3.24 88 508.1 131 3.26 1.141 7.2 0.8 3.0 10.7 3.50[/pre] I promise I am not predicting, or even suggesting, that Brett Anderson is going to make a Charlie Morton type developmental leap in his 30's. My point is more that the Brewers may actually know what they are doing when it comes to getting the most out of these types of solid, but non-premier starting pitchers. In case you are curious, here are Brett Anderson's numbers through Age 31... [pre]ERA G IP ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 4.05 188 997.1 102 3.91 1.335 9.6 0.9 2.4 6.2 2.56[/pre]
  14. Eye Black
    He would have also led the team in innings pitched last year by quite a bit.
  15. Eye Black
    I am fine with the cheaper low-key starting pitching acquisitions, but remain hopeful they will use their financial flexibility to add a higher end bat to the lineup this off-season.
  16. Eye Black
    He would still start plenty, but he also likely won't even be on the team in a year from now. He would play 1B versus lefties and start in place of Castellanos occasionally as well. Would also use him daily as a pinch hitter and late inning replacement. Lineups vs. RHP 1) Lorenzo Cain ® / Ben Gamel (L) 2) Christian Yelich (L) 3) Nick Castellanos ® / Ryan Braun ® 4) Kyle Seager (L) 5) Keston Hiura ® / Jed Lowrie (S) 6) Dominic Smith (L) 7) Omar Narvaez (L) 8) Luis Urias ® / Orlando Arcia ® Lineup vs. LHP 1) Lorenzo Cain ® 2) Christian Yelich (L) 3) Nick Castellanos ® 4) Keston Hiura ® 5) Ryan Braun ® 6) Jed Lowrie (S) / Kyle Seager (L) 7) Manny Pina ® 8) Luis Urias ® / Orlando Arcia ®
  17. Eye Black
    Sign Nick Castellanos Trade for Dominic Smith and Jed Lowrie Trade for Kyle Seager Lineup 1) Lorenzo Cain ® 2) Christian Yelich (L) 3) Nick Castellanos ® 4) Kyle Seager (L) 5) Keston Hiura ® 6) Dominic Smith (L) 7) Omar Narvaez (L) 8) Luis Urias ® Bench Manny Pina ® Ryan Braun ® Orlando Arcia ® Ben Gamel (L) Jed Lowrie (S)
  18. Eye Black
    Jeff McNeil and Max Muncy were Rule 5 eligible in 2017. In the two seasons since then McNeil has put up a 142 OPS+ with defensive positional flexibility. Also, if you are holding past prospect pedigree against players, its worth acknowledging Hader was considered the third or fourth piece to a trade that brought in 4 prospects, and he had already been traded once before at that point as the throw-in piece on another deal. Players evolve and improve, I wouldn’t hold their development path from their pre-MLB days against them years later..
  19. Eye Black
    Well one is a website trying to reverse engineering thousands of past transactions to see if something can be gleaned from it, and the other is a guy whose hobbies included fishing and fabricating Brewers rumors to get attention. I think they’ve achieved different levels of imperfection. Agreed, and I haven’t seen much of that happening. Most of the trade proposals made directly on the Baseball Trade Values website are “disliked” and argued for a variety of reasons. This forum is no different, just asking people to lay off the “this is stupid” or “a waste of time” tone and stick to the reasons for disagreeing with a particular trade proposal.
  20. Eye Black
    Castellanos reminds me of another guy that saw a mid-career breakout, J.D. Martinez. I think Castellanos would evolve into a legit middle of the order bat playing half a season at Miller/AmFam Park. I know this doesn’t prove anything, but Castellanos is only 27 years old. Here is a comparison between Martinez and Castellanos through their age-27 seasons... J.D. Martinez through age 27: [pre]BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ .275 .327 .471 .798 118[/pre] Nick Castellanos through age 27: [pre]BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ .277 .326 .471 .797 113[/pre] I predict Castellanos is on the verge of a very similar career breakout, and I would love for it to be as a member of the Brewers. I can get past the defensive concerns and believe he will be a good replacement for Braun starting next year. Edit: Here is another right handed hitting outfielder that went on to have a very good run from ages 28-30. Corey Hart through age 27: [pre]BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ .273 .326 .470 .795 106[/pre]
  21. Eye Black
    It’s becoming tiresome having people continually complain about it, IMO. Maybe just don’t use it or pay attention to it then? I appreciate what they are in their infancy towards attempting. It isn’t ever going to be a perfect science, so there will always be plenty of room for debate. Even trade values that matchup perfectly will never work out 99% of the time for a variety of reason that were mentioned earlier in the thread. Still, their site gives a much better starting point towards gauging value for literally 1,000 of players than we had previously. If you know player values better then them, or think the whole thing is a waste of your time, simply move on. Correct. Which is why no one, including Baseball Trade Values, is claiming or even aspiring to be the perfect valuation tool.
  22. Eye Black
    Per Jim Bowden: According to sources multiple teams are willing go to a 4th year for Josh Donaldson If true, combined with earlier reports that he’s going to make >$25 million annually, I think we can likely cross the 34 year old Donaldson off the Brewers wishlist at this point.
  23. Eye Black
    The A’s player to be named later was outfielder Buddy Reed who went unselected in today’s Rule 5 Draft. The Padres lost one other player in the major league portion of the Rule 5 Draft today, reliever Trevor Megill was selected by the Cubs. Assuming that wasn’t the Brewers PTBNL target we may (hopefully) hear something soon.
  24. Eye Black
    Two years ago Max Muncy and Jeff McNeil were eligible in the Rule 5 Draft... and went unselected.
  25. Eye Black
    If you’re interested Rosenthal’s direct quotes are listed on the previous page to this thread, Link.
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