Eye Black

Thanks for participating! Now have over half the spots filled, but still have room for 6 more members to join the fun.

They also have Wei-Chung Wang listed as the #26 prospect in the Pirates system and a 50 extreme grade. Their rankings are compiled before the Rule 5 Draft apparently. His writeup mentions that in addition to his curveball that flashes plus, his fastball velocity last season went from sitting 87-89 mph to working between 91-93 mph by his final start.

He will get a pension since he has 3 years of service time (only 43 days is required for the minimum pension). From what I could find, the minimum pension starts at $34,000 annually, so he will get some amount beyond that.

I am slightly intrigued by the possibility of seeing Omar Garcia and Johnny Davis on the same team at some point, because the only thing better than having a potential 80 runner on the base paths is having two of them.

Some interesting analysis of Marco Estrada's injury history and mechanics in this SP Guide Article by Paul Sporer and Doug Thorburn. The whole article is worth the read (and not all negative), but found this part in particular ominous:

Go ahead and pick a couple of teams (or both Blue Jays picks). It is for entertainment purposes and I have no doubt you are plenty qualified and will have fun with it.

With the first weekend of college baseball complete, I am proposing an idea for our very own Brewerfan.net Mock Draft (1st round of MLB draft) to be held on BF.net later this Spring. The idea is fairly simple and involves the participation of those interested in following amateur baseball, or at least that have an awareness of the elite talent among the amateur ranks. Each participating BF.net poster should select two teams to represent (with the exception of whomever picks the Blue Jays and their two 1st round picks). Pick one team in the 1-14 range and a second team in the 15-28 range. Simply either post the two teams you select in this thread or message me with your teams, and I will list them as your assigned teams in the below draft order (draft order still subject to change based on remaining qualifying offer signings). The mock draft itself will take place beginning May 1st, and take place over the course of a couple of weeks. Everyone will have up to a day to make their selection after the pick in front of them is made. The pick will not necessarily represent a prediction of who a given team will select, but instead who each BF.net poster would take in the given slot. No need to account for financial draft pool strategies or signability concerns. All that will eventually be required in May is listing the name and position of your pick, but any extra player analysis or reasoning for a specific pick is certainly welcome. Thought this could provide an entertaining community exercise leading up to the 2014 MLB first-year player draft. I will start with selecting a couple of picks. I took what I figured would be the least suspenseful pick (Astros, #1) as well as the last pick (Cardinals, #28). Hopefully some others find this mildly interesting and are willing to participate. Represented picks are bolded with team representative listed and italicized. Brewerfan.net Mock Draft (2014 MLB First-Year Player Draft 1st Round) 1. Houston Astros - Eye Black Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State 2. Miami Marlins - nate82 Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina 3. Chicago White Sox - jjkoestler Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (San Diego, CA) 4. Chicago Cubs - reillymcshane Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd HS (Texas) 5. Minnesota Twins - And That Alex Jackson, C/OF, Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego, CA) 6. Seattle Mariners - IndyCrew Aaron Nola, RHP, Louisiana State 7. Philadelphia Phillies - Kelbysdaddy Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt 8. Colorado Rockies - BallFour Kyle Freeland, LHP, Evansville 9. Toronto Blue Jays - Hyerbro1 Grant Holmes, RHP, Conway HS (South Carolina) 10. New York Mets - Eye Black Nick Gordon, SS, Olympia HS (Florida) 11. Toronto Blue Jays - sheetskout Trea Turner, SS, North Carolina State 12. Milwaukee Brewers - narwhalattack Touki Toussaint, RHP, Coral Springs Christian HS (Florida) 13. San Diego Padres - sheetskout Brandon Finnegan, LHP, TCU 14. San Francisco Giants - brewcrewdue80 Bradley Zimmer, OF, San Francisco 15. Los Angeles Angels - reillymcshane Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford 16. Arizona Diamondbacks - nate82 Michael Chavis, 3B, Sprayberry HS (Georgia) 17. Kansas City Royals - brewcrewdue80 Kyle Schwarber, 1B, Indiana 18. Washington Nationals - narwhalattack Max Pentecost, C, Kennesaw State 19. Cincinnati Reds - IndyCrew Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon State 20. Tampa Bay Rays - TheCrew07 Luis Ortiz, RHP, Sanger HS (California) 21. Cleveland Indians - Kelbysdaddy Jacob Gatewood, SS-3B, Clovis HS (California) 22. Los Angeles Dodgers - Hyerbro1 Casey Gillaspie, 1B, Wichita State 23. Detroit Tigers - jjkoestler Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Sandalwood HS (Florida) 24. Pittsburgh Pirates - TheCrew07 Monte Harrison, OF, Lee's Summit West HS (Missouri) 25. Oakland Athletics - BallFour Marcus Wilson, OF, Junipero Serra HS (California) 26. Boston Red Sox - Eye Black Foster Griffin, LHP, First Academy HS (Florida) 27. St. Louis Cardinals - And That Kodi Medeiros, LHP, Waiakea HS (Hawaii)

Segura contract extension discussion to recommence this Spring according to SB Nation article by Chris Cotillo.

Check... http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/2005/06/03/odd.uniforms.ad/gallery_5_aaron.jpg

I have a feeling he is going to sign with team that gives him the best financial offer regardless of geographical location. As Greinke reminded us all last February, money is "obviously the number one thing". From my recollection Burnett's timeline goes something like this... Last fall reports were that he is going to either sign with the Pirates or retire; then reports surface that Burnett may be willing to sign with the Pirates at a discount because of their location; then the Pirates don't give him a qualifying offer presumably because he may sign with them at a discount; then the Pirates don't immediately sign him and he is open to listening to offers from other teams; then the other offers are strong and he is almost assured of getting more then what the qualifying offer would have paid him. It seems like he did a great job of talking the Pirates out of extending a qualifying offer while ensuring himself the most FA value by not being attached to the loss of a draft pick. Maybe I will be surprised and the geographical thing will win out, but it seems like if it was more important than the money, then he would have signed already.

I am really glad the Brewers are taking a shot at one of the top DR talents, it would be a very positive step toward infusing the organization with potentially elite young talent. I prefer they spend money going after a top prospect on July 2 every year to the alternative of giving a guy like K-Rod $3 million. From the little I have read so far it sounds like many of these verbal agreements are already in place with the top DR prospects, and apparently the Yankees have several of them in place. Here is a little more information I found on Lara from a Blue Jays blog posted at the end of January...

Well it was prior to the Garza signing and paying a 27-year old Abreu 10 million a year over 6 years to shore up the organizational black hole at 1B wouldn't have been completely crazy (but risky, certainly).

Easy. Segura was likely projected as Leadoff hitter while Gomez was likely projected at #7 in the lineup. But I agree how can Gomez not accumulate 2WAR alone on defense? So he's going to provide 0.0WAR in offense? The projection includes 586 plate appearances for Gomez. That would be the third highest PA's of Gomez career, and the projection is 50 PA's less than the Segura who is projected as the lead-off hitter like brewcrewdue speculates. Gomez projected numbers are much closer to his career norms with an OBP of just over .300 and a SLG in the low-.400 range. I do agree that combined with his defense, a full season of Gomez even at those numbers is sure to be higher overall WAR.

PECOTA projections were released. They have the Brewers at 80 wins, but I guess the good news is they are ahead of the Pirates and only 3 games behind the Reds in the projections (they have the Cardinals winning the division). Some notables in the Projected WARP (Baseball Prospectus version of WAR): Braun (4.9); Segura (4.3); Davis (2.6); Gomez (2.1). The rest of the offensive players are projected below 2.0. Yo is the top pitcher at 2.4 WAR.

I have the same thoughts on Denson. He is currently 18 years and 2 months old. He was very young for his grade and could still be in High School this year. I really like Denson's swing mechanics in the video. His swing appears to have a smooth pre-swing load (when he doesn't rush) and his overall swing seems fluid throughout, especially for a guy that generates some serious power. And as TLB points out, I think that is how they are supposed to sound. I realize you can only capture a limited glimpse of player by watching 2-minute videos, so I won't go too far over the top here. I will say Denson is certainly a player that intrigues me, and I looking forward to watching him over the next couple of years to see how he develops.

I just bought a pair, it is going to be a great event. Per a Mike Ferrin tweet, the tickets are selling fast. According to Joe Hamrahi, they have had crowds between 50 and 250 (Texas) for these outings. They have also occasionally had to cancel them (Minneapolis last year), it will be interesting to see where the Milwaukee event ends up at in terms of numbers. UPDATE: So I guess the event is doing well according to this Joe Hamrahi tweet:

Baseball Prospectus released their Brewers Top Ten List: 1. CF Tyrone Taylor 2. RHP Jimmy Nelson 3. CF Mitch Haniger 4. SS Orlando Arcia 5. RHP Johnny Hellweg 6. OF Victor Roache 7. RHP Devin Williams 8. RHP Taylor Jungmann 9. RHP David Goforth 10. SS Yadiel Rivera

I agree with the fact the Brewers organization lacks high ceiling talent and deserves to be near or at the bottom of any rankings that value high impact potential. I don't have an issue with the ranking nearly as much as I do with the source. As I have invested more time following prospects the past couple of seasons, Keith Law has quickly become my least favorite "pundit", and there really isn't a close second. What bothers me isn't his opinion or an inferiority complex that he hates the Brewers, but I just find him to be both condescending and reckless in his approach. I have pretty much completely disregarded him since this series of comments on his ESPN chats last Summer... In my opinion this type of commentary with no supporting evidence is a grave disservice to a young prospect. Especially in an industry (prospect ranking) that is fueled by buzz, gossip, and hearsay. Why unnecessarily hang the vague makeup issues tag on a kid before he has even completed his first season of professional baseball when you aren't even willing to commit to providing any evidence supporting your potentially slanderous allegations? To put it plainly, I have zero respect for Keith Law's approach to reporting on prospects.

Added in the Cubs rotation zWAR projections for those interested. Still haven't seen zWAR projections for Garza...

I don't disagree with you that it appears to be a good deal, but ultimately I guess 29 other teams had the chance to top it including two teams that have had Garza on their roster in the last year. I would be interested to know if either the Cubs or Rangers even made an offer to Garza.

Garza has gone onto the DL 4 times in his career: 2008: elbow - 16 days missed 2011: elbow - 19 days missed 2012: elbow - 74 days missed 2013: strain below shoulder - 60 regular season days missed; 84 missed if you count Spring Training Would not categorize him as a candidate for a catastrophic injury, but he has missed time with an injury each of the past three seasons.

My biggest concern at this point isn't really whether the Garza deal gets done, but more about how the Brewers will react if the deal falls through. I have a bad feeling that if this deal doesn't go through they will quickly make a move toward another FA starting pitcher, probably one that costs a first round draft pick. It just seems too obvious that after adding a jilt of excitement among the fan base they will feel a sense of obligation to go after another starting pitcher, regardless of how reckless it may actually be.

My initial reaction to the deal was I was very surprised Garza, without being hitched to 1st Rd pick compensation, agreed to 4 years at $13 million per year. I had envisioned him signing for closer to $15 million annually. From a financial standpoint the deal (assuming it is completed) seems like a good price relative to other FA signings. It does seem strange to me that the Brewers felt the need to clarify the status of the lack of agreement on Twitter. Seems like if you were just working out the details of the contract structure you would just continue to work on it without making any public acknowlegements. Very curious to see what direction this goes from here.

This Fangraphs article by Mike Petriello on What Mark Reynolds Means to Milwaukee contains, near the end of the article, a very candid synopsis of the Brewers off-season thus far:

Mark Reynolds might be the modern Brewers version of Rob Deer. Taking a look at their 162 game averages (based on career stats), it is striking how similar they are statistically as hitters. If you look at Deer's Baseball-Reference page, Reynolds comes up number one in similarity score. To be fair, Deer's numbers do take into account his age 30-32 seasons, but still some uncanny similarities between the two statistically. Mark Reynolds - 162 Game Average [pre]PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 647 560 87 131 27 2 33 93 75 209 .233 .329 .464 .793[/pre] Rob Deer - 162 Game Average [pre]PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 633 544 81 120 21 2 32 84 81 198 .220 .324 .442 .766[/pre] A few other similarities: - Both led the league in SO's 4 times in their careers. - Both had their career high HR totals in their age 25 season. - Both have nearly identical career K% (SO/PA): 31% (Deer) & 32% (Reynolds) - Both have nearly identical HR per plate appearance rates: HR every 19.6 PA's (Deer) & HR every 19.5 PA's (Reynolds)