Fair enough, though logically I still don't see how Urias has fallen in value when overall he had an excellent 2019 season for his age, and when Grisham (who allegedly jumped in value) was only marginally better in his small sample of MLB playing time. Jharrel Cotton falling in value is totally different, as he is a pitcher coming off major injuries. Another problem with adjusting projected values based on actual trades is that MLB is not necessarily a rational market. The Padres front office is feeling the heat because they are coming off several disastrous moves like signing Myers, signing Hosmer, and (not disastrous but not looking great) signing Machado, and so they want to win now. I think it's logical to bump Grisham's value because the Padres clearly have a very high opinion of him or they could have gotten a "better" outfielder for Urias. But I don't think it logically follows that Urias's value has dropped. Sometimes teams act rashly to try to win, and not because the prospect involved has gotten any worse. The Cubs trading Gleyber Torres comes to mind. I also wouldn't discount the possibility that the Padres view Zach Davies as a major part of the trade (possibly even bigger than Grisham) because he has put up strong ERA and W totals. If there is any naive "old school" front office still in baseball, it's the team that gave nine figures to Eric Hosmer.