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SRB

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Everything posted by SRB

  1. SRB
    I mean, I wouldn't be shocked if they were trying to go below the $120 million opening day payroll they had last year, but they are not cutting payroll down to $60 million the year after a playoffs appearance and in Yelich's prime
  2. SRB
    Very surprised at Shaw and Claudio. Was Claudio really set to make that much that you don't bet on him returning to form as an elite junkballer? He's only 27.
  3. SRB
    Taijuan Walker was non-tendered and would be an interesting rebound candidate to sign cheap.
  4. SRB
    Makes sense. Gives us a cushion to ease Urias into the starting job, and at worst Arcia can be a defense-first utility guy like Saladino (who may be gone based on this).
  5. SRB
    Love Moose as a player, but this is a disastrous move for Cincinnati. First of all, this is overrating him as an offensive player. He's consistently solid and gives you HR/RBI, but his overall offensive profile is basically average and not worth $64 million. Keep in mind he almost had a career year last season (second best of his career) at age 30, and most of that was in the first half. Through the second half he was middling. Second of all, this is a huge gamble on 359 defensive innings at 2B. The Reds have Votto and Suarez locked up for at least three years, so there is absolutely nowhere to move Moose if he struggles as an everyday 2B or his defense falls off a cliff. Really strange decision making.
  6. SRB
    Excellent idea. Cron is more or less what Aguilar was originally supposed to be (before Aguilar went ape and became an everyday player, and before Aguilar then fell off a cliff and became a neveryday player). If they could sign Cron and bring back Thames for a couple million each, that's a very strong platoon at 1B for cheap. Or move Shaw to 1B if you think he can rebound against RHP. (Shaw complicates things because the team is unlikely to want to use four roster spots on 1B and 3B platoons)
  7. SRB
    I'd be pretty disappointed if Bruce Rondon was our big FA acquisition of the offseason.
  8. SRB
    Hader for Syndergaard and Smith would be tempting. Our bullpen is suddenly shaky but part of the hole could be filled by Knebel returning. Might still have money to sign Wheeler and a couple other pieces... CF Cain RF Yelich 2B Hiura 1B Smith LF Braun 3B Shaw/Frazier SS Urias C Pina SP Syndergaard SP Wheeler SP Woodruff SP Lauer SP Burnes CL Knebel
  9. SRB
    Hader is arguably the best RP in baseball and is under control for 4 more seasons in his 20s!! I think this is a rare instance of Brewers fans undervaluing an asset We should be asking for the moon.
  10. SRB
    Andujar and Frazier is an absolute nonstarter for me. Both are flawed players coming off injuries and overvalued due to the Yankees hype bump. Andujar is an unusable defender at 3B and has zero plate discipline. Frazier has been mediocre for a while now and is already 25. We can and should do much better in a Hader trade. Slam the phone down on this nonsense, Stearns!
  11. SRB
    That was true in 2016, not sure if it's been true since that time. Well Drew Pomeranz just got a $32 million commitment off of one month of pitching sort of like Hader. I think it's definitely still true, and in fact justified. Elite relievers are much more valuable than sabermetrics reflect. I'd say that $40 million figure being cited in this thread is way off, Hader is worth DOUBLE that on the trade market in a season with few elite RP options.
  12. SRB
    Yikes, no way am I centering a Hader trade on McNeil. You have to remember that the objective projected WAR "value" of an elite RP like Hader is going to be far below his market value in MLB. The only matchup I can see working would be with the Dodgers, who need bullpen help and have near-MLB talent that could help us win in 2020. Maybe something centered around: C Will Smith or C Keibert Ruiz RHP Dustin May
  13. SRB
    That is a quick no from the Orioles. Rumors of the price for Mancini are at least one top 30 prospect plus more. So you are going to have to pay about the same price as what Yelich cost a few years ago. Well sure that may be their public stance, but Mancini is not even close in value to even the Miami version of Yelich. Pre-2019 Arcia probably would have been a competitive offer, but now Arcia is actually starting to make money so doesn't fit the Orioles as a buy-low candidate.
  14. SRB
    It's unusual for a team to "hide" a pitcher like the Brewers did with Wei-Chung Wang, who was a Rookie-ball pitcher with no business being on a MLB roster. Brown has pitched an entire season at AAA, he may end up having a mediocre season but I don't think the acquiring team will have to hide him.
  15. SRB
    I'd be willing to take on Brandon Belt's contract if the Giants are willing to give him away. More upside than almost any other option available, and his mediocre 2019 seems like it may have been largely BABIP driven.
  16. SRB
    I actually am a big fan of Puig's persona, but as a player it is weird how his reputation still seems defined by his huge production out of the gate in 2013-2014. Over the last five years he's been a below average corner OF with poor defense. His overall value is not that far from Ben Gamel.
  17. SRB
    I would absolutely love if Stearns signed Castellanos to play 1B. I don't see why Castellanos would object, as there is a good chance he gets signed as a DH as it is. He's an everyday player, but he crushes LHP in particular so would bring some more balance to the lineup. Is this realistic? Beats me, but don't forgot that last season Stearns signed Mike Moustakas to play 2B
  18. SRB
    I'd give $144 million to bring Mike Cameron back and just have him hang around the dugout, to be fair.
  19. SRB
    That's just objectively not how MLB trades work though. Teams work out trades without soliciting offers from other teams all the time (for example, perhaps San Diego's scouts just love Grisham and were willing to pay almost any cost). Obviously we all know that prospect rankings from sources like Baseball America are wildly speculative and not scientific, but if you are basing projected "value" (i.e. a $/WAR figure for projected WAR) on rankings ostensibly based on what BA scouts and BA sources think of a player's skills and potential in a vacuum, that should not change based on a trade that seems unbalanced. I never reevaluated my opinion of Eric Hosmer after the market said he was worth nine figures. I will grant you that this trade is one additional data point that at least one GM thinks the "value" of Urias/Lauer is closer to Grisham/Davies than the prior consensus (though even that is not absolutely certain), but should that alter our expectations/projections so dramatically? If so then I question the value of even pretending to rank prospects, which is a bit depressing for us armchair GMs online because the logical endpoint is that every single transaction is more or less a win-win swap between equally rational (and equally competent) front offices
  20. SRB
    Adjusting my plan to spend $40 million since we no longer need Didi G. Sign Zach Wheeler for 4/$72M ($18M in 2020), sign Michael Pineda for 2/$22M ($11M in 2020), sign Todd Frazier for 1/$7M ($7M in 2020), re-sign Eric Thames for 1/$4M ($4M in 2020) C Pina 1B Thames/Braun 2B Hiura SS Urias 3B Shaw/Frazier LF Braun/Gamel CF Cain RF Yelich SP Wheeler SP Woodruff SP Pineda SP Lauer SP Houser/Burnes
  21. SRB
    Fair enough, though logically I still don't see how Urias has fallen in value when overall he had an excellent 2019 season for his age, and when Grisham (who allegedly jumped in value) was only marginally better in his small sample of MLB playing time. Jharrel Cotton falling in value is totally different, as he is a pitcher coming off major injuries. Another problem with adjusting projected values based on actual trades is that MLB is not necessarily a rational market. The Padres front office is feeling the heat because they are coming off several disastrous moves like signing Myers, signing Hosmer, and (not disastrous but not looking great) signing Machado, and so they want to win now. I think it's logical to bump Grisham's value because the Padres clearly have a very high opinion of him or they could have gotten a "better" outfielder for Urias. But I don't think it logically follows that Urias's value has dropped. Sometimes teams act rashly to try to win, and not because the prospect involved has gotten any worse. The Cubs trading Gleyber Torres comes to mind. I also wouldn't discount the possibility that the Padres view Zach Davies as a major part of the trade (possibly even bigger than Grisham) because he has put up strong ERA and W totals. If there is any naive "old school" front office still in baseball, it's the team that gave nine figures to Eric Hosmer.
  22. SRB
    Smoak is very interesting to me, because you can interpret his down 2019 season as being largely BABIP driven, but otherwise his peripherals suggest he may have been in line for a return is his excellent 2017 season. He actually had the highest Hard hit % of his career last season. Taking a risk on a Smoak signing panning out is probably our best realistic route for getting a .370 wOBA type hitter at 1B. Thames is solid and I like Thames, but I think they are not interested in bringing Thames back because he is a true platoon bat, and needing to use two spots for 1B drastically cuts down on roster flexibility that the front office prizes.
  23. SRB
    What new "data" is there, other than they don't want to accept that one team fleeced another? If the model is adjusted to try and equalize any trade that goes through, I think that undercuts its value. (Edit: though I apologize for the flippant tone, as I didn't realize the actual author would be reading the thread My ire isn't directed at your particular analysis, just the fact that nobody will seem to acknowledge that the Brewers just pulled over a massive swindle.)
  24. SRB
    He's "pondering retirement" due to back and knee injuries that ruined his 2019 season, so he may not even been available, but Steve Pearce would be an interesting rebound guy on a one-year deal.
  25. SRB
    I'm not penalizing him for playing every day. I fail to see how his ability to play 162 games would benefit us in having Villar be a bench bat or split time with Hiura/Urias/Arcia. To me calling someone a "4.0 WAR" player suggests they have All Star level talent when they are on the field, not that they are extremely durable and racked up lots of PA/IP.
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