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SRB

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Everything posted by SRB

  1. SRB
    Here's the kicker, it's not an overpay. Darvish will be making about 1.5--roughly---less than Mad Max and he'll make similar money to Homer Bailey, James Shields (Shields/Bailey, wanna take overpay?) and Jonny Cueto. And he'll be making around a million to million five more than Wainwright and Strasburg. (Darvish was looking for 6/175 to begin the off-season.) Overpay? It's closer to being a steal than an overpay. Throw in the opt-out, and it's a clear steal. The Cubs did not react to the Brewers Cain/Yelich moves, so the Brewers cannot knee jerk react to the Darvish move. How does the opt out make it a clear steal? The opt out makes it much, much worse for Chicago. I think it's a fair deal for a non-super-elite (which isn't to denigrate Darvish, he's just not a Kershaw or Scherzer tier SP) with major durability issues whose never had a 5+ fWAR season.
  2. SRB
    I think Chacin is the #5 there, but that has the makings of a pretty solid rotation even before Nelson returns.
  3. SRB
    What is this based on? Yeah he has a season under his belt (which was not great), but he's basically an MLB-ready prospect. All depends on the front office's evaluation of him.
  4. SRB
    Cotton makes a lot of sense along the lines of Yelich/Cain as a guy who can potentially breakout in 2018, but even if he's a longer term project he'd be around to help 4-5 years from now. The minor league stats are very impressive. If Stearns and the Brewers front office really like him, then Cotton for Santana doesn't seem crazy. Here's his Fangraph scouting report from early 2017:
  5. SRB
    The problem with sending Thames to Houston is that Gurriel and Marwin Gonzalez already have fairly pronounced splits favoring RHP. Jesus Aguilar would actually make more sense for them to plug in at 1B/DH. (I doubt that's enough for McHugh though)
  6. SRB
    Grisham's inclusion in this is pretty exciting to me, given that he's not a "random guys with great MiLB stats" like those KATOH prospects sometimes are, but instead his inclusion is corroborated by Grisham's excellent prospect pedigree. My guess is that KATOH is very impressed with the BB% and OBP and thinks that the lack of power is something that will come as Grisham ages.
  7. SRB
    Well first two years in that 4 are his cy young quality. The last two havent. Put the last two side by side and compare. Noted before his velocity WP. Ive said at least two times, but his #2 pitch went from reliably elite to barely average ML pitch. Theres nothing moving forward that would suggest he'll ever reach 14&15. Darvish pitched in AL and a lot more consistently. If youre going to commit 5years one is good with consistency, the other has been wild turned Ace back to wild and less velocity. In any heads up game its a wash. But taking your 4years FWar value it is likely Darvish is 18 and Arrieta is 10 moving forward. Darvish is going to set new career bests in his mid-30s? I agree with your other points, I don't think Arrieta is perfect, but if he didn't have those question marks and remained a shutdown ace in 2016-2017 he would be looking at a deal over $200M right now.
  8. SRB
    He had a 7.3 fWAR season not that long ago? More upside than Darvish, imo.
  9. SRB
    It matters to the extent that there is reportedly an opt-out after a couple seasons, so the Cubs are taking on more back-end risk if Darvish gets injured or becomes terrible before the opt out.
  10. SRB
    Nah, it's human nature to value location more than a few extra million. It doesn't happen often in baseball because there's no salary cap and the most desirable destinations also are usually able to offer the most money, but in the rare instance where a less desirable market is also the highest bidder, it's not at all surprising. It happens all the time in the NBA, for example. It's probably more about the team than the city. Darvish will probably spend 81 nights on a palatial zeppelin floating over the Chicago skyline and not much more. Not surprising that Darvish would rather go to a recent World Series champion with a massive payroll rather than a quasi-rebuilding Wild Card contender that made a couple big moves, even assuming that scenario is accurate.
  11. SRB
    Sign Jaime Garcia to make a run at the Wild Card if Nelson comes back healthy. We do not need to panic and try to compete in 2018 when our near-ready prospects (including virtually all of our top SP prospects) are a couple years away.
  12. SRB
    Please not Lynn. Paying pitchers for the perceived durability is how you end up with Jeff Suppan.
  13. SRB
    How is he a bigger injury worry than Darvish, who has frequently been injured over the last few years?? Arrieta's K/9 actually went up and BB/9 went down last season, even though he had a mediocre (for him) year by FIP. But still, he had a 4.16 FIP to Darvish's 3.83 FIP. Particularly given that his agent is Boras, I actually expect Arrieta will get a bigger contract (and very likely will be a better pitcher over the next half decade). Not that I want the Brewers to sign him necessarily. We can't eat bad contracts like the Cubs can, so none of these nine figure commitments would be wise. I suspect Darvish's agent is better or more interested in manipulating the media into making Darvish the clear headline free agent this offseason.
  14. SRB
    I think it's Yelich because I suspect that Stearns and company expect Brinson to be a failed prospect. Even if Monte Harrison turns into Michael Brantley, the value added in Yelich via trade is basically unheard of. The biggest value signings are probably Todd Frazier by the Mets and, potentially, the Cain signing. If Cain ages well he could easily outperform Stanton over the next five years, no joke.
  15. SRB
    (Sorry for multiple posts) Why does everyone think Arrieta will have to settle for a worse contract than Darvish? Granted Darvish had a slightly better 2017 season, especially after getting traded, but from 2014-2017: Arrieta: 119 GS, 751 IP, 2.67 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 3.25 xFIP, 18.5 fWAR Darvish: 70 GS, 431 IP, 3.48 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 10.0 fWAR Darvish is only five months younger, has been far less durable, and a worse pitcher.
  16. SRB
    Just throwing this out there 2018 ZiPS Darvish:3.22 FIP 2018 ZiPS Archer: 3.10 FIP 2018 STEAMER Darvish: 3.70 FIP 2018 STEAMER Archer: 3.48 FIP
  17. SRB
    Gross. Anyways, imo this moves actually makes it less likely that the Brewers add a SP before the season. The Yelich and Cain moves were meant to create a competitive window for 1-5 years from now. Stearns is not going to overpay in prospects or commit to an albatross contract to compete in 2018 if the Cubs are more clearly the NL Central favorites.
  18. SRB
    McHugh is a great target for us. He's quietly been a 3-4 WAR pitcher, which is much better than a #4 in my opinion. What does Houston want in return though?
  19. SRB
    Would be cool to see him make a comeback. It's not unheard of, Bartolo was washed up for a few years before reestablishing himself. Probably better suited to a fully rebuilding team though.
  20. SRB
    If they were free, then maybe.
  21. SRB
    Oh showed major red flags last season, including a very high FB% that would not have played well in Miller Park. Granted relievers are volatile in general, but I'm much happier committing money to a guy who was good last season rather than a guy trending down.
  22. SRB
  23. SRB
  24. SRB
    I think most people (and the advanced metrics) consider Frazier a plus defender at 3B. Great deal for the Mets. Frazier's 2016 is the poster child for how empty a 40 HR batting line can be though.
  25. SRB
    Wait, so BrewerWorld is trying to take credit? The bio and stuff.... BrewerWorld is a deliberate parody who apparently guessed right on the number of years of the Cain signing and is now enjoying pretending to be "legit"
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