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Wish you'd said that before I spent 20 minutes compiling a list of no-trade clauses!
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Some detective work based on HighHeat's clues. Below is a (possibly incomplete) list of players on AL clubs with no-trade clauses potentially covering the Brewers, which could be the "contractual issue" delaying the trade. Giancarlo Stanton Masahiro Tanaka Jacoby Ellsbury Aroldis Chapman CC Sabathia Chris Davis Adam Jones [FA] Mark Trumbo? Darren O’Day Hanley Ramirez? Rick Porcello? Dustin Pedroia Rusney Castillo Troy Tulowitzki Miguel Cabrera Jordan Zimmermann Victor Martinez Joe Mauer [FA] Phil Hughes? Justin Verlander Brian McCann [FA] Mike Trout Albert Pujols Justin Upton Ian Kinsler [FA] Felix Hernandez Robinson Cano Mike Leake Nelson Cruz? [FA] Jean Segura Hisashi Iwakuma Cole Hamels? [FA] Shin-Soo Choo? Adrian Beltre? Elvis Andrus? Mike Minor? I've crossed out the names that seem totally unrealistic (including players who just signed deals and likely aren't on the trading block). [FA] means the player is a free agent after 2018, which in my mind makes it less likely they are a target. Ellsbury, Trumbo, and Castillo would likely waive their no-trade clauses because they have better shots at a starting job in Milwaukee, especially if Santana is on the movie. Zimmermann would probably be perfectly happy to get out of Detroit (and back home to Wisconsin no less), but Detroit would have to eat a lot of money for him to be the player. Andrus makes the most sense in terms of upgrading the Brewers, but would he want to leave Texas and would Texas want to trade him?
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Santana as the centerpiece for Archer doesn't make much sense for Tampa Bay, because they're under team control for the same number of years. If the Rays are going into a rebuild they will want high-upside prospects whose 6-year clocks won't start ticking for another couple seasons. Sorry for not keeping up with the thread, but is all the White Sox chat based on a concrete rumor or just pure speculation? I'm not a huge fan of an Abreu trade, because a properly-used Thames/Aguilar platoon could legitimately be a top 10 first base option. So far the prospect of signing Darvish is what's keeping me giddy.
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[sarcasm]Shaw for Ellsbury![/sarcasm]
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Been a trend when Stearns makes trades, have you forgotten? We already "had" Mejia once, so he is very high on our lists. I'm all ears for what HH is saying, it makes total sense on paper to me unlike the Ellsbury standalone rumor. Yeah but Mejia is much more valuable now. He'd be a plausible centerpiece for a Machado trade, and in this three-way we basically swap Baltimore's main return for Phil Bickford. Who knows though, in Stearns I trust!
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That trade is highway robbery by the Brewers, not remotely realistic IMO.
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If Rosenthal is confirming the offer, it does make Darvish's emoji slightly more intriguing (i.e. it removes the possibility that he was saying the story was bunk)
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Taking on guys like Ellsbury is wise because it is essentially trading an asset we have a great deal of (payroll space) to a team dealing with luxury tax issues. I would hope that the Brewers eat his entire contract and get a prospect haul in return, although since Ellsbury isn't a totally worthless player it's hard to gauge what kind of return would be warranted.
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His career line vs. LHB: 11.5 K/9, 3.05 FIP, 2.99 xFIP (And most of that is pitching for the Yankees and Rockies)
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Fangraphs article about Chacin's platoon splits and the possibility that Stearns & Co. think they can help him improve against LHB: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jhoulys-chacin-will-be-a-fun-brewers-project/
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I'd rather have Chacin over the next few years than Tyler Chatwood, who got a $38MM commitment.
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Wow, some ridiculous pessimism in this thread. Chacin had a 4.26 FIP last year and was worth 2.3 fWAR. He had a 4.01 FIP the year before. And he hasn't turned 30 yet. That's not glamorous, but it's a very solid back-of-the-rotation pitcher. If the deal is anything less than $40MM then it's a great value pickup. Gallardo makes little sense except as a flier they think they can fix. Chacon in contrast is just a decent MLB contributor. Between this and the Chris Archer trade thread, I swear some people think any pitcher who isn't Clayton Kershaw is trash.
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Stearns is a smart GM, so I'm optimistic he thinks they have some answer to improve Yovani's pitching (probably in a bullpen role). For example, this Fangraphs article suggested he might benefit by adopting an unusual breaking-ball-heavy pitch selection: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/its-time-for-a-pitcher-to-throw-80-breaking-balls/
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One of the founding principles of sabermetrics is that pitchers do not have much control over the ball once it is hit into play and that things tend to average out over a large enough sample. Out of the nearly 400 pitchers with at least 600 IP from 2000-2017, only three sustained a BABIP over .320 (with the bizarre leader of the outliers being Manny Parra at .334, and he barely qualified with just 628 IP)
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I don't think it's realistic for a small-market franchise like the Brewers to essentially pay $40 million for some B-grade prospects. If there aren't any free agents worth signing in 2017-2018, then why can't the organization just add that unspent money to its war chest to use on various other things (scouting, international bonuses, 2018-2019 payroll, etc.)?
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I don't agree with this at all. I'd like to see Hader start, BUT he was pretty awful last year with command. He's a pitcher that's wild in the zone. He needs to spend a year honing his mechanics, learning to attack hitters, integrating secondary pitches, and figuring out how to hit spots. I think another year in the pen where he pitches frequently is a good option. How does that help him work on his command? They should either give him a chance in the rotation or, if they think his command still needs work, send him down to start in AAA where he's not pitching to matchups or in high leverage situations
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I think they might further discount them once he pitches a few games for the Brewers again.
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The worst part of this would be if Gallardo getting a rotation spot means they keep Hader in the bullpen and continuing wasting his potential.
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You are trying to suggest that 2 full and consecutive seasons of starts are outliers? Reeeeeeeally? Yes, because ERA is not a great stat and a handful of flukey starts out of two full seasons can dramatically impact ERA. That's why advanced metrics are more predictive of future performance, and Archer's peripherals and durability are both elite.
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Zack Cozart to LA Angels - 3 years/ $38M
SRB replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
They have a rotation full of guys with major injury histories. If the starting rotation stays relatively healthy all season, the Angels will be better than the Astros. If the starting rotation is riddled by injuries again, the Angels will be mediocre. -
That's why you look at his peripherals, which have not been trending down (in general). The larger sample demonstrates that there isn't anything about him to suggest that he should permanently underperform his peripherals. STEAMER projects a 4.3 fWAR season with a 3.43 ERA (adjusted to pitching in the AL East). That may not be a true "ace"and instead more of a #2, but he should able to maintain that for four years at very little cost. There is simply no scenario where we could acquire a true "ace" under the same circumstances. Chris Archer is the probably most valuable pitcher the Brewers have any realistic chance of adding in the next few years, aside from hoping that we get extremely lucky and some internal prospects develop into aces. That includes free agency, because generally there we would have to commit to a $100 million contract for a declining guy already in his early-to-mid 30s to even hope for similar performance. I would trade Brinson without blinking.
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I'm surprised the Cubs aren't spending their money on starting pitching. They're rotation is not very good and Chatwood is not the answer. I expect them to win the NL Central, but I would have thought they'd be planning for the playoffs. Not a lot of prospects to add a SP via midseason trade.
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I have no idea what his hard contact rate is that he gives up but I agree with the overall point. People can continue to point to his peripherals but when it's the same every year while posting a 4 ERA at what point does it become he's actually not as good as his peripherals say? Except he had a 3.22 ERA in 2013 (128 IP), a 3.33 ERA in 2014 (194 IP), and a 3.23 ERA in 2015 (212 IP). The entire premise of baseball analytics suggests that his 2016-2017 ERA is the outlier. He's not Kershaw or Sale, no, but those kind of guys are not available to the Brewers for four years on a cheap contract. Archer reportedly is.
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Some of you are severely underestimating Archer's value. He's a top of the rotation pitcher, he's incredibly durable relative to today's MLB, he's young for an acquirable SP, and he is cheap for several more seasons. Since his first full season in 2014, he ranks #12 in the majors in terms of fWAR (16.2), just behind deGrom (16.3), Strasburg (17.6) and Greinke (17.4), and just ahead of Bumgarner (15.8). How would you value Greinke if he was 29 and cheap for four more seasons? His ERA's the last couple seasons look like blips, not permanent characteristics of his pitching style like Manny Parra (who always underperformed his FIP/xFIP). Over a larger career sample, Archer has a 3.63 ERA versus a 3.46 FIP. Not a big difference.
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Since the Brewers are in limbo where they are possibly competitive but still basically in a rebuild to gear up for 2019 and beyond, I think the #1 priority would be a cost-controlled SP who could anchor the rotation (along with Nelson) next year and beyond. That's basically a unicorn trade target, certainly not a target in free agency, and yet there's a guy on the market that fits that bill in Chris Archer. He's only 29 and is under team control through 2021.