JosephC

Sounds like Juan Nicasio could also be heading to Philadelphia in this deal. He has to have the strangest pitching line from the 2018 season. 6.00 ERA looks terrible. However, he had a 2.99 FIP, 3.18 xFIP and a remarkable strikeout to walk ratio of 10.6. .402 BABIP...just might be coming off the unluckiest season in 2018. It will be interesting to see if he has a big bounce-back season in 2019. I always thought he was a pretty decent looking reliever when he was in the NL, although sometimes his control looked a bit sketchy.

Great deal for the Phillies if they can include Carlos Santana. That allows them to get Hoskins out of the outfield which should have been priority #1 for them.

Have to agree with the word "boring" when looking at the bowl matchup. I can't imagine this will excite anybody in Madison.

Absolutely lopsided trade in favor of the Mets. Cano's average fWAR/bWAR from last year was 3+ and he only played half the season. Even at his age he a top shelf offensive/defensive second baseman. Prior to the 2018 season, he had 11 straight years of 150+ games played and was 156+ in 10 of those seasons. Highest number of games played at DH is only 9 and that happened back in 2012. Last year he slashed .303/.374/.471/.845 and during the last three years his slash line is .292/.350/.490/.840. DRS and UZR/150 are both good over the last three seasons. The guy has a long history of both production and durability. Josh Hader in 2018 (age 24 season) = 81 1/3 innings, 2.43 ERA, 168 ERA+, 2.23 FIP, 0.81 WHIP, 4.0 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 15.8 K/9 Edwin Diaz in 2018 (age 24 season) = 73 1/3 innings, 1.96 ERA, 208 ERA+, 1.61 FIP, 0.79 WHIP, 5.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 15.2 K/9 If Hader should be considered a complete untouchable, then Diaz definitely deserves to be in that same category. And the Mets just got him. Jay Bruce has been an average 0.9 fWAR/bWAR player over the last three years and that includes what is looking like a flukish 2017 where he was a 2.7 WAR player. Apply the "lose 0.5 WAR per season) rule of thumb for a player his age and he projects as probably only being good for about 0.5 WAR over the next two seasons. His contract might be less than Braun's contract, but it is a worse contract and figures to be nearly all dead money. Same with Swarzak. He was a negative WAR player in both 2016 and 2018 and it sure looks like the positive 2017 was a flukish year. Adding all the WAR values together over the last three years and he's a 0.4 WAR player which makes his contract another all negative value proposition. Combined, Bruce and Swarzak are still owed 34 million dollars and it would probably be pretty safe to say 30 of that 34 million should count as negative value towards the organization. Take that -30 million and add it to the 20 million the Mariners included and it subtracts 50 million off the Cano contract. 5 years, 70 million dollars means 14 million per season for Cano in the biggest market in baseball, for a team that seems to comfortably run a 150+ million dollar payroll. Cano probably has only has to total 7.5 WAR duing the next five years to make that a good investment for the Mets. +1.5 WAR per season over the next five years, he's a really, really good bet to exceed that. I really, really like Jarred Kelenic and would hate to give him up, but this is a no-brainer for the Mets. A great two-way second baseman, a young Hader like reliever for the bullpen and no longer having to sit through two years of watching Jay Bruce. Sign me up. My only major concern would be if Cano's last 10+ years has largely been dependent on PED use, and now that he got busted he will be off the PEDs and his performance/durability aspect will take a nosedive. I don't think that will happen, but only time will tell on that. Still, 5 years at 70 million is more than a reasonable gamble for a guy that can still hit and still play plus defense in the middle infield. That's 5 years at 70 million for a team that runs a 150 million payroll, not a 100 million payroll like a small market team. It would be a pretty rare, happy day if I was a Mets fan.

Never understood how the West Coast of the US is "closer to home" for Asian players. It's a 12 hour flight from LA or 14 hour flight from NYC. Neither of those is in any way "close" to home. Maybe that's just the politically correct way of saying they want to play somewhere with a large Asian population. It has to do with home game start times. If a team is playing a 7 PM game on the west coast, that is noon in Toyko and it's easier for people in Japan to watch the game.

All depends on if the Mets young hitters can step up and perform. Juan Lagares is such a good defensive player that they could just go with him in center for defense and bookend him with Conforto and Nimmo. They would absolutely need Amed Rosario to hit much better. At first base, Dominic Smith has been a huge disappointment but now Peter Alonso should be ready. They probably aren't going to get much offense from the catcher spot, and if they go with Lagares in center, that's two positions where they would be sub-par offensively. They really would need to get plus (not necessarily great) offense from all the infield spots. Cano (if acquired) shouldn't be a problem. Todd Frazier needs to get on base enough.

How far along are you? I've been meaning to watch more Bergman but the fiancee would make it about five minutes so I need to do it while she's not around. I definitely have a few Tarkovsky films on my list for the near future. I'm watching the films in chronological order, not the "film festival" order of the box set. Watched "Summer with Monika" last night and will be watching "Sawdust and Tinsel" sometime today.

If what you say is true and he's been taking PEDs for 10 years and was only caught once, don't you think he would continue doing them instead of stopping? Up until he got busted, Cano's PED use would have only cost him the dollars necessary to obtain the PEDs. After he got busted, it was 12 million dollars straight out of his pocket. That seems like a pretty good deterrent. He also knows the next time he will get busted, it will be 24 million dollars straight out of his pocket. Good deterrent #2. I think there is a pretty good chance that if he was a chronic PED user, that he will no longer be using PEDs.

I'd only have two worries if I were the Mets. #1 - Robinson Cano's 10-year performance is largely due to PEDs and he's done a remarkable job of avoiding detection until now. He will be off the PEDs going forward since he's now been caught, and the falloff in performance will be immediate and dramatic. #2 - No DH option in the NL which might be a real benefit for Cano in the last two years of the contract. And I don't even know how much of the defensive aspect is really worrisome. After a rough UZR/150 start early in his career, Cano has been on the plus side 6 of the last 8 years and was a really good +9.3 in 2018. He's been on the plus side in DRS 8 of the last 9 years and has been a very good +15 the last three seasons (+4 last year). Again, it doesn't look like something that really shouldn't be that much of a concern for at least the next couple of seasons. I really, really like Jarred Kelenic...and not just because of the Wisconsin connection. I definitely would have had to think twice about moving him considering the big investment that was made. But after running the numbers, what else is in this to not like from the Met's perspective? They obtain one of the highest upside relievers in the game and Met fans no longer have to suffer through 2 years of Jay Bruce. Based on his historical performance, I just don't think taking on Cano's contract is a huge risk for a team that can run a 150 million payroll.

I can understand how Brewer fans can look at Cano, see that contract, and assume he will automatically be negative value player like Braun. But I don't see it. Even with just a half-season played last year, Cano had an average fWAR/BWAR of 3. He very easily could have been a 5+ WAR player had he not missed so much time. Over the last three seasons his average annual fWAR/bWAR is 4.4. Take the rule of thumb for players his age and just start subtracting 0.5 WAR per season. That's 3.9, 3.4, 2.9, 2.4 and 1.0 for a total of 13.6 WAR for the remainder of his contract. Now he is getting pretty far along in age, so one could reasonably argue that the falloff will be much more dramatic. I would agree with that. But on the other side, the 4.4 WAR starting point is a low number because he basically missed half of 2018. When looking at the whole picture, I think the 13.6 WAR number is pretty fair. This guy is still a really good player who has a solid, long history of being both productive and durable. Say 1 WAR = 9.5 million over that five year timeframe, and the total value is just a hair under 130 million. Cano makes 120 million over that timeframe so it's pretty easy to argue that he actually still has some positive surplus value at this time. Going through a little more math that I don't want to outline here, I came up with Cano surprisingly having +18.2 million of surplus value if when using the 5 seasonal WAR values from above. For a team running a 100 million payroll, Cano's contract looks like this huge anchor that is only going to drag the payroll situation down. For a team that runs 150+ million dollar payroll, Cano's contract really doesn't look that horrible. Edwin Diaz had a remarkable year last year but we all know the up and down history of just about every reliever that's ever pitched. Him maintaining a seasonal 3+ WAR year after year is a longshot. But average the fWAR/bWAR for the last two seasons and it comes out to 2.2, and that's probably a fair annual number over his next four seasons. He'll probably makes somewhere around 21.5 million over those seasons. Surplus value I came up with is +61.9 million. So adding the two together, I have Diaz/Cano somewhere around +80 million in surplus value. Even if one were to argue that Cano should definitely be a negative, well Diaz's surplus value should wipe all that negative value out (and then some!). Bottom line, if I were to include Diaz in the deal, there is no way in hell I would take back what are two obviously very bad contracts in Bruce and Swarzak. Jay Bruce has been an average fWAR/bWAR of 0.9 over the last three seasons. Apply the lose 0.5 WAR per season and Bruce only projects to be a +0.4 WAR player for the remainder of his contract which makes his surplus value a -22.4 million. Swarzak's average fWAR/bWAR over the last three seasons is 0.4 WAR, so his entire 8 million dollar deal can be considered a negative. There is a rock solid -30 million in negative surplus value in these two players. Just going by the MLB pipeline rankings. OF-Jarred Kelenic = #62 hitter = +32.2 million in surplus value RHP-Justin Dunn = #89 pitcher = +17.7 million in surplus value RHP-Gerson Bautista = fringe prospect = +2.2 million in surplus value Mariners give up: RHP-Edwin Diaz = +61.9 million in surplus value 2B-Robinson Cano = +18.2 million in surplus value TOTAL = +80.1 million Mets give up: OF-Jarred Kelenic = +32.2 million in surplus value RHP-Justin Dunn = +17.7 million in surplus value RHP-Gerson Bautista = +2.2 million in surplus value RHP-Anthony Swarzak = -8.0 million in surplus value OF-Jay Bruce = -22.4 million in surplus value TOTAL = +21.7 million All out steal for the Mets. Even if one were to argue that the Cano number is way, way, way off, his number would have to swing to a -40 million to make this a fair swap. So then instead of his contract being 120 million, it would need to be a 5 year, 80 million dollar deal. Somewhere around 8.5 WAR would then make this a reasonable investment. Is it a good bet that Cano can average 1.7 WAR over each of the next five seasons? I think that would be a near lock. I'd be infuriated if I were a Mariner's fan. Especially since the public just donated 135 million for stadium upgrades and the the team turns around and sells off the team. A total disgrace. King county residents, enjoy watching Jay Bruce the next two seasons, you just got totally screwed.

Man I just love Criterion. Working my way through the Ingmar Bergman's Cinema collection right now.

I don't see the great depth that people keep talking about. Not at all. With the talent the team had 12-13 months ago, a player like Mario Feliciano, coming off what he did in the 2018 season, probably wouldn't be ranked in the top 20. The fact that he's listed at #7 by a credible source like Fangraphs, pretty much screams to me that the Brewers have about 6 players sitting on top and a whole, whole lot of mediocrity backed up behind that. Really disappointed to see Erceg that low. Pretty much should have expected it by now considering how many outs he makes, but still disappointing because his value may have dropped to the point where he just doesn't have much of any trade value remaining, and he would be a logical piece to move if the Brewers need to make a deal. Wow, even below Trent Grisham...surprising.

Here is what one guy from MLBTradeRumors thinks: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/brewers-payroll-2019.html He has 110 million. My guess would be just slightly higher than that (112 million). If Attanasio does something like jack it up to 125+ million, my gut feeling is that it will have nothing to do with the payrolls he's run with in the past. It would be foolish to over-extend now with past saved money only have to cut it back later after that saved money has run out. If the payroll takes a big move up, I would suspect it will have to do more with new or better revenue steams than what they've had to work with in the past (start with the new FOX broadcast deal).

Pass on Moustakas. Historically low OBP guy who has his ups and downs. Put Shaw back at third base and invest the Moustakas money in other areas.

So you honestly think Baumgarner’s trade value for one season of control is closer to bringing back a haul of Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Domingo Santana, Corey Ray That type of package should be good for about 14 WAR. I have my doubts if Bumgarner will be a 14 WAR pitcher next season. If Stearns in interested in moving those players for pitching, he should be calling the Mets and asking about deGrom.

I have to admit, if I were running the Brewers I would already have Woodruff penciled in for a bullpen spot in 2019. So far as a MLB starter = 5.22 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. As a MLB reliever = 2.02 ERA, 0.97 WHIP. Not saying that would be the long-term plan, he could even be the first guy called on to replace an injured starter. Stick him back in the bullpen where he seems more comfortable and let him get himself firmly established as a MLB pitcher with an eye on starting him in the future.

There are many numbers on Bumgarner's stat sheet that are pretty alarming. Only 240 2/3 innings pitched the last two seasons. Some of that was bad luck (line drive), but some of that was due to his own poor judgement (dirt bike wipeout). K/9 has fallen from 10.0 to 8.2 to 7.6 over the last three seasons. Last year the BB/9 ratio was at 3.0, the worst of his career. His FIP was 3.95 in 2017 and 3.99 in 2018. xFIP has gone from 3.54 in 2016 to 4.07 in 2017 to 4.32 in 2018. Hard hit percentage topped 40% last year. His four seam fastball usage decreased by nearly 10% last year, leading to articles like the following: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/madison-bumgarners-fastball-is-still-broken/ 2016 through 2018 average fWAR/bWAR is just a shade over 3. Average fWAR/bWAR for just 2018 was only 1.9. Steamer projection for 2019 is 2.1 WAR. All the numbers scream that the highest he should be valued in 2019 is a 3 WAR pitcher and that is a very optimistic number based on the recent history and the way the numbers are trending. 9 million per WAR x 3 WAR = 27 million - 12 million dollar salary = +15 million in surplus value. Just strictly going by the numbers, Bumgarner is not worth a top 100 hitting prospect but may barely be worth an extreme back end pitching prospect (Freddy Peralta?). But that is taking what should figure to be the most optimistic view on Bumgarner. Great name on paper but all the numbers are screaming a different story. All those interested should proceed with extreme caution.

I'm not in favor of trading for Cano, but it's amazing looking through some of his numbers. He has been remarkably durable. He broke his hand on a hit by pitch and was suspended during this last season, but prior to that he had played in at least 150 games in 11 straight seasons. Played in 156+ games in 10 of those seasons. No major knee, shoulder, elbow injuries that cost him big chunks of time and obviously not too many stints on the DL with grade one strains. And his offensive numbers the last three seasons: .292/.350/.490/.840 and would likely have averaged 30 HR+ and 90 RBI+ if not for the suspension. Just remarkable consistency and production this late in his career. Almost all of this as a middle infielder. Checked through his numbers and his season high total for games played as a DH is 9 and that happened all the way back in 2012. +15 DRS as a second baseman and on the plus side of UZR/150 over the last three years too, so at least the defensive metrics have him as still being able to get the job done in the field. I wouldn't want to stick 120 million into him considering his age, but there is pretty good reason to think that he will maintain his status as a "well above league average" second baseman through the next two or three seasons.

After going through and reviewing the prospect surplus value chart for 2018 (Point of Pittsburgh), and doing an adjustment for 2019 that is in line with the increases from 2016 to 2018, I've determined that Hiura's prospect surplus value probably runs around 65 million. If one buys into the idea that Hiura should fall around #25 on the prospect list and Realmuto will be about a 4.2 WAR player each of the next two seasons, then their surplus values would be just about equal. IMO, after review, a straight up swap between the two seems to be a pretty fair swap between the two teams.

I wouldn't mind seeing the Brewers Rule 5'ing Dodger prospect Drew Jackson for competition for Perez's roster spot. It would be a long-shot but is also a pretty minimal investment. But I very much doubt the Brewers will look to replace Perez. Counsell seems to love him, definitely seems to think he has a much better bat than he actually has.

If I'm in the Met's GM chair, I would be looking to deal both deGrom and Syndergaard but would only move them at my price. Minimum 75+ million in prospect surplus value for deGrom and 70+ million in prospect surplus value for Syndergaard. deGrom may have one less season of control but has established himself as the elite of the elite. Those are fair expectations for those two pitchers IMO. Zero interest in Lorenzo Cain and zero interest in any MLB first baseman. No interest in taking on any big salaries and the Mets have a minor league first baseman ready to get his MLB chance in Peter Alonso.

Complete embarrassment. Hopefully the bowl game will be Hornibrook's last time on the field. The guy has no business wearing a Big 10 uniform.

Considering Carroll's background (injury expert with no actual medical training), comments about the Brewers would likely have to do either with something going on in Nelson's rehab OR Motus attempting to sell the Brewers a whole bunch of stuff and Attanasio/Stearns not being interested.

I like Cincinnati OF-Michael Beltre even though he has no experience at the higher levels. It seems like he's the real deal from the defensive aspect. Hard to get a good judgment on the offense because he's been old for his levels, but last year he definitely got the job done. If the Brewers had a big problem with outfield depth then I wouldn't have minded seeing them take a chance on this A-ball player, which is something I'm usually against. But with the way things are, I just don't think there is a spot for him on the 25-man roster coming out of spring training. For Milwaukee...Oakland's Richie Martin (SS) and the Dodger's Drew Jackson (SS/2B) both seem like reasonable fits to me. Martin gets the job done with the glove and I read reports early on that indicated he could be a late-bloomer with the bat...and his offense took a big step forward last year. Even with some mediocre offensive numbers during his minor league career, he's still be a lifetime .257/.340/.366/.706 hitter and that's not bad if the player plays a really good shortstop. He'd be a really nice insurance policy if Arcia falls into bad habits at the plate again. He's number one on my wish list of Rule 5 eligibles. Jackson has played mostly shortstop and second base, but is an excellent athlete with a great arm and has also played some third base and centerfield. Has pretty decent offensive numbers (career .269/.360/.399/.760), but as I understand it, he can be rather streaky with the bat and figures to have a below-average bat as a major leaguer. Nonetheless, a good athlete with some positional versatility, could provide Hernan Perez with some competition for the versatile defensive sub role on the team. Only pitcher that really caught my attention was the Blue Jay's RHP-Jordan Romano. Career minor league numbers are just sort of average across the board. 3.31 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9, 8.8 K/9. But basically all of that's been as a starter, and I think he profiles much better as a reliever with a plus fastball/slider combination. 25 years old, 6-4, 200 pound guy with only 5 innings of AAA experience and 137 1/3 innings of AA experience but should be ready to make the jump. Did have Tommy John surgery and missed the 2015 season. Nice arm to maybe take a flyer on.

Wasn't Will Carroll a leading "expert" in MLB drug testing and a huge supporter of Braun being railroaded by MLB and being totally innocent of PED allegations?