JosephC

Kind of an initial surprise that he went straight on their 40 man roster. But even after adding him, the Mariners only have 32 players on their 40-man roster. While I'm certainly no expert, I ranked their minor league system #28 back in early August. Looking at rosterresource.com, it appears like they might only need to add about 4 minor leaguers to protect them from the Rule 5. I wish Moore well, he would have been a nice insurance policy to have stashed in AAA.

The stunning part of this is that the author (McDaniel) rates Hiura #22, Lutz #68 and Ray #89. Hiura's ranking looks fairly accurate. But IMO that ranking for Lutz is EXTREMELY high compared to what I would consider the "general opinion" and maybe Ray is a bit high as well...although placing Ray at the back end of the top 100 certainly isn't unreasonable. When I had Hiura/Peralta/McClanahan a few pages back, I would have completely guessed their rankings as Hiura ~30, Peralta ~90 (if still eligible) and McClanahan ~480. To me, the difference in value between Lutz/Ray versus Peralta/McClanahan isn't that great. I'd probably put Ray ~110 and Lutz ~225. But here where McDaniel has Hiura plus two more top 90 players...that's a pretty staggering return for Realmuto IMO. What I'd really like to see is if McDaniel would make a guess on a package that would exclude Hiura. I think that is the one that would completely floor most Brewer fans. Take Hiura's prospect surplus value out of the mix and try to replace that! https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-trade-for-j-t-realmuto/

I think the Mariners did really well here. After the "cut payroll...no wait...we are re-tooling" stuff that came out, I really didn't expect to see them getting much value for pieces they wanted to sell. Zunino's bat is flat out ugly. The offensive numbers he posted in 2017 appear to be a complete fluke. There are some concerns with Smith. The guy has no power at all and has been a surprisingly average defender considering the great speed he has. Wouldn't be crazy for the Rays to think the high OBP he posted last year was a fluke, so now is the time to sell high on him. Heredia is just another guy. The minor leaguers included look like lottery tickets...players who weren't highly regarded but both had excellent showings in 2018. But I'd take Smith's upside over Zunino's horrible bat any day. Zunino might have really good defensive skills, but a .275 OBP isn't out of the question for him...and I really question if a catcher should be considered anything other than backup quality with offensive out-making at that high of a rate.

1. IF-Keston Hiura 2. OF-Corey Ray 3. IF-Brice Turang 4. IF-Lucas Erceg 5. OF-Tristen Lutz 6. RHP-Zack Brown 7. IF-Mauricio Dubon 8. C-Jacob Nottingham 9. RHP-Adrian Houser 10. OF-Troy Stokes Jr. 11. OF-Joe Gray 12. RHP-Trey Supak 13. RHP-Cody Ponce 14. C-Payton Henry 15. RHP-Marcos Diplan 16. OF-Trent Grisham 17. IF-Chad McClanahan 18. IF-Jake Gatewood 19. OF-Carlos Rodriguez 20. RHP-Caden Lemons 21. OF-Micah Bello 22. LHP-Quintin Torres-Costa 23. OF-Je'Von Ward 24. LHP-Aaron Ashby 25. C-Mario Feliciano 26. OF-Larry Ernesto 27. OF-Eduarqui Fernandez 28. RHP-Miguel Sanchez 29. OF-Tyrone Taylor 30. RHP-Jon Olczak

Scoreboard update: Billionaire Mariner's owner = +135,000,000 Millionaire MLB players = +1,000,000's Idiot politicians in the state of Washington = 0 Dumb general public = -135,000,000 https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/king-county-council-gives-final-approval-to-135-million-in-public-funds-for-mariners-ballpark/ Thanks for the 135 million dollars, suckers!

Can't start with Perez at 2B because then the manager would bat him 5th in the lineup everyday!

What makes you think that? It's a combination of Framing Runs + Blocking Runs + Throwing Runs, and I would find it very hard to believe that "Blocking Runs" doesn't include passed balls and wild pitches. I had been doing some more searching about the blocking runs and passed balls are factored into the blocking runs statistic. I stand corrected on that.

Why would we gamble in Forsythe bouncing back, when we could gamble on Schoop (a better player) bouncing back. I'm not endorsing either player but the obvious answer would be $$$ Yep, ~10 million dollars versus ~1.5 million dollars. I'd take that money and add it to other available funds and make a run at Wilson Ramos. All speculation, but I'm guessing that 10 million dollars dedicated to Schoop will really limit what the Brewers will be able to do this off-season in roster moves. Hopefully I'm wrong and Attanasio bumps the payroll to 125 million, which is a level that would make offering arbitration to Schoop a no-brainer yes. But I'll believe it when I see is (referring to the 125 million dollar payroll). I'm looking at it as Schoop + Pina/Kratz or perhaps Forsythe + Ramos/Pina. And with Hiura waiting in the wings, to me taking Ramos and a 6-8 week downgrade with at 2B with Forsythe (assuming Schoop will outplay him, and I'd agree the odds favor that) is the better decision.

Wilson Ramos is not top-tier defensively. Baseball Prospectus ranked Ramos 45th out of 117 catchers in their defensive metrics. So he's an above-average defender. Grandal was number one, but surprisingly, I don't think the metrics include passed balls and Grandal is sort of known as the king for allowing passed balls. He had lead the league or tied for the league lead three times already. Career 64 passed balls in 5175 1/3 innings. Just for a quick comparison, Pina has 6 passed balls in 1683 1/3 innings. I have no idea how these guys would stack up against the rest of the league. Not sure if Pina's numbers are exceptionally good or anything like that. But if Grandal has lead the league or tied for the league lead three times already, I just have to assume that he's just flat out bad when allowing passed balls. Obviously the big unknown is how much Attanasio is willing to spend next year. My gut feeling is that a 12 million per year for Ramos would really stretch it to the near maximum. Guessing that the additional 4 million or so for Grandal is not a possibility. Of course that's all speculation. I'm more worried that, with these two guys ranking far and away the best free agent catchers available this off-season, that they will get more than anticipated and both will be priced too high for the Brewers.

I'd thought about just going with Pina/Kratz/Nottingham. Kratz hit well enough, seemed to handle the pitching staff and seemed to fit in alright. Why not just go with him next year? Then I went back and reviewed his numbers. In his previous 450 MLB plate appearances, which stretched from 2013-2017, Kratz was a .193/.236/.338/.574 hitter. I'd guess that odds are overwhelming that his numbers significantly fall from the meager .236/.280/.355/.634 he posted last year. It will be his age 39 season. Like with Sogard in 2017, Stearns should count his blessings that he found a guy that greatly over-achieved. Then in 2018, Stearns should have realized a repeat performance would be very, very unlikely when looking at Sogard's entire resume, not just what the guy did for a few weeks during a hot streak. The Brewers should really be looking for an upgrade to pair with Pina.

I've moved into the "don't offer arbitration to Schoop" group and am willing to move on. I kind of like Logan Forsythe the more I look at him. He was just awful last year but from 2015-2017 he was a .261/.348/.414/.762 hitter and pretty much average defensively at 2B. He'll be entering his age 32 season, that's not too old, and I'd guess he'll bounce back slightly from his bad 2018 season (.232/.313/.291/.604). Right handed bat that can also play 3B, so he could see some at-bats there if they decide to sit Shaw against certain lefty pitchers. Contract estimates on him are 1 year for somewhere between 1 and 2 million. Worst case scenario is that he bombs. If so then Hiura comes up at the end of May and Forsythe was a 1-2 million dollar investment which allowed the Brewers to play the service time and Super Two games with Hiura. Minimal financial risk with a bit of OBP upside.

IMO the Brewers will likely be close enough to Attanasio's payroll limit where gambles like this would have to be payroll neutral. Personally, I'd just rather keep Thames for the left-handed bat, but initially didn't think it would be crazy for a Thames/Gray swap. Yankees might be desperate to dump Gray, and while I certainly don't think Thames would be their first choice, they have had issues at 1B the last couple of years. Then I looked at the arbitration estimate for Gray and it is 9.1 million. No thanks. He might get moved and have a great 2019 season, but let somebody else take that gamble. The other thing about Gray is that since the start of the 2016 season he's had: 4.59 ERA, 93 ERA+, 4.21 FIP, 1.38 WHIP. So it's not like he just crashed when he got to New York. As a whole, over the last three years he just been a really sort of average/below-average pitcher.

I'd have no problem giving Wilson Ramos a 3 year, 36 million dollar deal if that fits into Attansio's payroll plan. If Attanasio puts the payroll cap for 2019 at 110 million, then I don't think there is enough room to fit that contract in and still have enough wiggle room for in-season moves. If the payroll cap is 120 million, then I'd make Ramos that 3 year, 36 million offer. He just turned 31, so this would cover his age 31-33 seasons. He's been a .343 OBP/.826 OPS hitter from 2016-2018...I feel pretty good about still being an above-average performer in 2021. Also really like the fact that when the Rays traded him, it sounded like there was some uncertainty on when/if he'd be able to play. Ramos got back mid-August and performed really well down the stretch for the Phillies. Doesn't seem like there is any type of significant injury concern. Just seems like a real solid investment to me.

I'm super-high on Woodruff, but so far in his MLB career he's looked plus-plus as a reliever and well below average as a starter. Have think that would significantly affect how other teams view him on the trade market. I wouldn't say his value has dramatically increased or decreased since his prospect days.

To play Marlin's GM, I'd likely go for a Realmuto for Hiura plus one of Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta (Brewer's choice) plus one of Payton Henry/Trey Supak/Chad McClanahan (Brewer's choice). I'd probably end up with Hiura + Peralta + McClanahan and that would be pretty reasonable. I think Hiura has greater than twice as much value as the next best Brewer prospect and that includes players that have less than 1 year of MLB service time. And I don't think it's at all a stretch to say that he could have more than four times as much value as players like Ray and Turang who the pipeline has as #2 and #3 on the Brewer's prospect list. I think it's really hard to put a package together that doesn't include him. eyeblack talks about maybe Burnes, it's possible but I'd probably need 3 more pieces and all those pieces would have to be of real quality (not Joe Gray or Jacob Nottingham....better than that).

I was really looking forward to watching Hornibrook versus Rutgers quarterback (who came into this game with 3 touchdowns and 15 interceptions), and will stand by my statement that Hornibrook isn't even good enough to play for Rutgers. I know the Badgers want to redshirt Coan in the worst way. But if he doesn't start getting at least a few series per game, then Chryst is the one who should start being evaluated for a concussion.

I kind of like Logan Forsythe. He was bad, bad, bad, bad this past season. His power numbers were also bad in 2017. But the OBP in the 3 year splits (.243/.333/.364/.697) is still OK. If last year was an outlier, the three year splits from 2015-2017 is a very respectable .261/.348/.414/.762. Defensive metrics pretty much have him as an average defender at 2B and he can also play some 3B, since he's a right-handed bat he probably could give Shaw some days off against lefties. Next year will be his age 32 season so he won't be too old. The couple estimates I've seen have him on a 1 year deal for 1 or 2 million dollars. If he bounced back to 2015-2017 form he'd be a great addition. If he'd flop, well hopefully Hiura would be ready by June and then Forsythe could back him up and still probably get some playing time at third against lefties. If I was confident that I could get him signed to a 1 year, 2 million (or less) contract, I'd lean towards declining arbitration on Schoop and just sign Forsythe as a stop-gap for Hiura.

Interesting. The first article I had read on it this morning said the Rangers were only on the hook if he was bought out. That was my impression. If the Cubs declined the option, then the Rangers pay the 6 million buyout. But if the Cubs picked up the option, then the Cubs pay the full 20 million.

I have to disagree. It doesn't seem like a bad investment for the Cubs at all. He was pretty good after he got to Chicago and I think he has another good season left in him. Obviously the difference in payroll level between the Cubs and the Brewers is huge. Brewers started last year at 90 million, the Cubs at 180 million. For the Brewers this would be 22.2% of last year's payroll, for the Cubs it only represents 11.1% of last year's payroll. Schoop would probably represent somewhere between 9-10% of the Brewers 2019 payroll if he's offered arbitration, if the Cubs push the payroll to 200 million then Hamels represents 10% of that. I really don't see the 20 million dollar figure being out of line when looking at a big market team like the Cubs. The Rangers have to be thrilled because the buyout was 6 million and if the Cubs would have declined the option then the Rangers would have been on the hook for that entire amount (was part of the trade agreement). The Rangers just got an extra 6 million to work with.

If I'm sitting in the Marlin's GM chair, I know I have a really valuable piece and would only be willing to move him at my price tag, not settle at all during the off-season. Even though technically he should lose 1/4 of his surplus value between now and the beginning of July, Realmuto would still be a confident "hold" for me, because with the need for catching, it is pretty likely at least one team would be willing to overpay once we get into July. Yelich got his ticket out of Miami, obviously he doesn't work in a deal from either side (no sense for the Brewers to trade him, no sense for the Marlins to put him back in a situation he wouldn't like). If Stearns gave me a call, the first thing I'd tell him is that either Hiura or Hader would likely need to be part of the deal. Without one of those two guys I just couldn't see a package from the Brewers that would make sense from my end. If those two are excluded, then we are talking about 4 pretty major pieces (Burnes + Woodruff + Turang + Ray).

The call on Schoop probably comes down to the payroll limit in 2019. If Attanasio sets it at 110 million, then I don't think the Brewers can offer Schoop arbitration. However, if Attanasio sets it at 120 million, then I think Stearns offers Schoop arbitration. According to Cot's the highest the Brewers have ever gone is 104 million back in 2015. As far as the small markets and top payrolls. 1. Milwaukee = 104.2 million in 2015 2. Cincinnati = 115.3 million in 2015 3. Kansas City = 143.0 million in 2017 4. San Diego = 108.3 million in 2015 5. Baltimore = 164.3 million in 2017 6. Pittsburgh = 99.9 million in 2016

Why is Stearns/front office getting the majority of the blame here? Attanasio seems fairly involved with these decisions, and ultimately he's the guy who controls the purse strings.

I agree that the Hosmer deal was ridiculous but have to admit that I liked Hosmer much better as a player than Moustakas after the 2017 season. Hosmer = .294/.359/.463/.822 and averaged 159 games per season from 2015-2017. Moustakas = .275/.329/.496/.824 and averaged 107 games per season from 2015-2017. Hosmer had clearly shown a much better ability to consistently get on base, even though he had some down years in OBP (like 2016).

If Moustakas just turned down one year at $15 million to then turn around and sign a two year, $20 million contract, then I would say he got very bad advice entering the off-season for the second year in a row. A few days ago I would have agreed with you but just recently ran across this older Fangraphs article. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-mike-moustakas-market-didnt-develop/ Now I have no clue as to what Moustakas' sprint speeds were in 2018. He did steal four bases. He also did have a bounce-back in defensive metrics, posting a +2 DRS and a +1.0 UZR/150. On the flip side, his offensive numbers were down from 2017 to 2018 and now he'll be entering his age 30 season. And "luck" doesn't appear to have much to do with that drop. His BABIP was bad, but for him a low BABIP number is normal because he is the king of the infield pop-out. 19.2% last year and 17.0% in his career. The 19.2% tied him for the league lead with Yangervis Solarte (Blue Jays). There were only 8 regulars who had infield fly ball rates at 17% of greater this year. But when looking at the entire picture, it wouldn't be at all surprising if the league as a whole views him as a player that has the potential to decline rapidly from this point forward. At this point it's probably safe to say that his defense has declined to the point where he might only be considered average. 10 HR drop off from 2017 to 2018 with 2 months in a good hitter's park. There have always been OBP issues throughout his career. And while he's posted some big HR totals in the past, he just isn't a good enough hitter to become a desirable DH if another injury limits his 3B play further. I would have agreed that 15 million for one season is a good number, better to take it and try again in free agency next year. But all things considered, maybe if an agent can get him a 2 year, 20 million deal, perhaps that would be best? Get the extra 5 million in the bank right now. After all, with the buyout this year he ended up making 6.5 million in 2018 and that was coming off a 38 home run season. If he gets a 2 year, 20 million dollar deal...let's break it down as 15 million for 2019 to mimic the original option year and 5 million for 2020...who is to say he's a lock to get 5 million in 2020 when he could only get 6.5 million in 2018 and that was coming off a 38 HR season? I would have agreed with you a few days ago, but that Fangraphs article really made me take a second look at Moustakas' situation.

MLBTradeRumors reported that each of them get the 1 million buyout as specified in their contracts. So Soria "forfeited" 9 million, his agent probably figures the low end for a new contract would be something like 2 years, 14 million which is a lower number per year but is still an additional 5 million guaranteed. And that should definitely be the low, low end of the offers he receives. Also worth noting that the White Sox shipped approximately 1 million to Milwaukee as part of the trade, and I always suspected that the cash was for the buyout. Personally I hope Moustakas remains OUT of the Brewer's mix. He had a great first month with them but his performance faded as the season progressed. .343/.854 (OBP/OPS) in August, .319/.732 in September, .273/.523 in the playoffs. Slash line for Milwaukee in both regular season and playoffs was .247/.317/.409/.726 and that's below average for 3B. MLB lists the 3B slash line from 2018 as .257/.329/.434/.763. In fairness to Moustakas, the 3-year split (2016-2018) is a much better .260/.314/.490/.804, but that OBP is just a bit low for me when considering the team will probably be dealing with somewhat limited finances this off-season. Last year Shaw hit .251/.359/.477/.836 when playing 3B. Would much rather see Shaw back at 3B and the Brewers find a new answer for 2B (maybe Schoop, maybe someone else).