JosephC

Only real disagreement I have with the list is that Cody Ponce is too low. Not really sure why the Brewers have him pitching so much out of the bullpen lately? He had one blow-up start in May but other than that had been doing pretty good out of the rotation. When he got moved out of the rotation his ERA was 4.68, but take out the one bad start and he had a 3.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Since that time he's struggled but not as bad as the 4.60 ERA indicates. Has a 2.5 K/BB ratio, opposing hitters batting .255 against him, allowing 1.05 HR/9 which isn't a bad number and that covers the entire season so far. His worst number is the 4.60 ERA, rest of the peripherals look pretty solid. He's a big guy that throws 4 pitches and there is some refinement needed there but I think he's pretty much right on schedule. IMO he's easily in the top 20 (I had him at #14 on my list).

I've gone through the minor league systems over the last couple weekends and tentatively rank the Brewer's system at #23. I had the Brewers with 16 "top 10 organizational prospects" or better prior to the Cordell trade, and currently would have them with only 7. I don't think there is nearly the depth present as some like to credit them with, and the "top 100" group will be Hiura and nobody else when Burnes graduates. And when Burnes does graduate, the Brewers will likely be near the bottom when it comes to pitching prospects. The Giants would be worse, the kind of win this going away IMO. Mariners would be right there, the Sam Carlson injury did not help them. Boston would be there, they have many pitchers listed high but that's a weak farm system and the Groome injury really hurts. KC added some nice pitchers in this draft including Brady Singer, they will have moved ahead of the Brewers when speaking strictly about pitching prospects (but would still be behind the Brewers when looking at the overall system). Cubs...I like Lange and Marquez has gotten some really good reviews lately, they've probably moved ahead of the Brewers when just looking at pitching. Brewers very likely a bottom five system in terms of pitching when Burnes graduates, not really a surprise considering all of Stearns biggest investments have been hitters.

OPS differential in time of day stats. Braun = +0.370 (0.893 at night, 0.523 in day) Arcia = +0.255 Pina = +0.195 Shaw = +0.180 Yelich = +0.148 Aguilar = +0.095 Perez = +0.052 Moustakas = +0.006 (only factoring in stats with Brewers) Cain = -0.095 Kratz = -0.095 Thames = -0.293 (0.737 at night, 1.030 in day) Schoop = -0.362 (only with Brewers) Lots more +'s than -'s on the list. Throw out Schoop for the lack of a decent sample size, and Thames is the only one much better during the daytime. But Braun, Arcia, Pina, Shaw, Yelich all much better at night. Braun's daytime numbers are so bad that Counsell should consider benching him for all day games even if the pitching matchup seems to be favorable.

Brewer hitters have a 0.757 OPS during day games and a 0.684 OPS during night games. The -0.073 is the fifth largest negative in the majors. The Rockies lead in this category, they are OPS'ing 0.785 during night games and only 0.677 during day games. On the other end of the spectrum, the Giants are OPS'ing 0.674 during night games but 0.759 in day games. However, it appears that Brewer pitchers have the exact same problem. The Brewers have a 3.79 ERA in night games but a 4.13 ERA in day games. The -0.34 difference is the sixth largest negative in the majors, nearly mirroring the ranking in the Brewer offense's OPS. Again, the Rockies lead in this category, a respectable 4.32 ERA at night but a poor 5.12 ERA in day games. The Pirates are at the other end of the spectrum, 4.64 ERA at night but a 3.50 ERA in the daytime. The Phillies are also in with the Brewers and Rockies, three teams that seem to both hit and pitch better at night. The Phillies OPS 0.734 in night games but only OPS 0.659 in day games, and have a 3.54 ERA in night games but only a 4.14 ERA in day games. But after looking at all these numbers, the Brewers are really under-achieving in day games. CBS lists their daytime record at 17-30. The Phillies have somehow managed a 22-18 record in the day which is quite remarkable looking at the numbers above (0.659 OPS and 4.14 ERA results in 4 games over .500?...have to assume they've suffered a few blowout losses during the day which has really skewed the numbers). But the Rockies, who are the absolute worst when looking at the numbers, have a 16-24 record during the day. They are 8 games under .500 in day games while the Brewers are 13 games under. But back to the Brewers, it's not just about Sunday lineups because the pitching staff's performance is also worse during the day than it is at night.

Getting sick of Anderson fitting the description of total mediocrity lately. He's averaging less than 5 innings per start over the last 7 starts. He's gotten pulled prior to reaching the 85 pitch mark in 3 of the last 4. Can't really blame Counsell for not trusting him. He has an unsightly 5.23 FIP, and when watching Anderson it seems like a complete blow-up is just around the corner. And Chacin pinch-hitting to lead off an inning is still bothering me. I know it's early in the game and using a pinch-hitter there may leave the team short later in the game, but Counsell has to risk it and use an actual hitter there with the top of the order following the pinch-hitter.

I thought Miley might match up well against some of those Braves left-handed bats. But Freeman is at .333/.391/.582/.972 and Markakis is at .323/.387/.510/.897 against lefties this year. As a team they have the 3rd best OPS against lefties in the majors. Hopefully Teheran's woes continue. He has not been good lately.

60% seems just about right to me. Cubs will very likely win the division. Then the Brewers SHOULD be battling with 2 teams from the east and 1 team from the west for one of the two wild card spots. So 4 teams for 2 spots....basically would be 50/50 if all teams sat in the same position but the Brewers get bumped up to 60% because the Nationals are 5.5 games behind them. I fully realize the Cards, Rockies, Pirates are all ahead of the Nationals currently, but I simply believe the Brewers have a better roster than those teams and should finish ahead of them (assuming no more major injuries). I still think the Nationals are prime to make a strong charge late in the year. So probably Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers as division winners, with the Brewers, Braves, Nationals and Diamondbacks for those two wild card spots. It's kind of a shame that the Brewers had those two series with the Diamondbacks really close to one another early in the year. Would be fun to see the two teams match up now to get more current comparison. Sure, three games really wouldn't mean that much but still would make for an interesting watch.

I think it's a less than 50/50 chance that Perrin would be Rule 5'ed, but it's not crazy to think that he would be. There are many names that get brought up for Rule 5 protection that I find pretty unbelievable (Phil Bickford would be a good example), but Perrin isn't one of those. Before all the trades went down, my list of protects would have been Medeiros, Ortiz, Ponce, Supak, Torres-Costa, Gatewood and Stokes. Perrin would have been the 8th guy on the list and the last player I would have given serious consideration.

Pretty good chance that the Brewer's preference would be to trade Schoop and sign a cheaper second baseman to bridge the gap to Hiura. However, there hasn't been much of a market for second baseman over the last year-plus. Schoop will be costly and will be coming off a bad year. I can see it being difficult for the Brewers to trade him. If a trade can't be made immediately following the season, for me the decision is a no-brainer. Offer Schoop arbitration and pay him the money. Where was Carmona rated in the Brewer's system when this trade went down? 13th? Ortiz was an unquestionable top 10. So there was a top 10, another in the top 15 and Villar. A small market team can't give up that type of value for a 2 month rental. Schoop will turn 27 this off-season, so his age likely has nothing to do with this bad season. Even including the terrible numbers this season, his slash line from the beginning of 2016 until now is .269/.306/.466/.772, with a 162 game average of 30 home runs and 89 RBI. While he had some minor injury issues earlier this year, he played in 162 games in 2016 and 160 games in 2017. Last year he was an All-Star and finished 12th in MVP voting. The large sample size + age indicates that this is a solid major league second baseman who is just having a bad year.

Two things that jumped out at me are that he was Rule 5'ed in 2015 and couldn't establish himself as a major leaguer in '16, '17 and '18. That and the San Francisco Giants have a pretty good history of developing pitching. Hernandez was in their minor league system for five years and never got past the Arizona League. Looks like the longest of long-shots to me.

Last report I saw on Biasi indicates he's a three pitch pitcher that primarily likes to work with a fastball and curveball. Low 90's velocity on fastball and tops out around 95. Likes to work in the bottom of the strike zone. Likely tops out as a back end of the rotation starter or long reliever. Actually sounds a bit like Perrin, although I thought that Perrin primarily likes to go fastball/change-up (and mixes in a slider and very occasional curveball). These scouting reports weren't the most current, so if someone knows more then please correct me. Note that Perrin is from Kansas.

I thought the prospect return for Gausman was light, but the inclusion of O'Day can't be under-estimated. He's 35 years old, missed time earlier in the year with a hyper-extended elbow and now is out of the year after having hamstring surgery. He's old enough where it's questionable how effective he'll be when he returns in 2019. He's to be paid about 3 million for the rest of this year and 9 million for next year. I like him as a pitcher but he won't do them any good for the remainder of 2018, and if he's less than average next year it basically ends up as the Braves eating 12 million in salary. The Orioles had to thrilled to be able to part with that contract after it was announced that he was out for the rest of the year. And adding that 2.5 million in international pool money might put them as the favorites to sign Victor Victor Mesa, whereas a short time ago most speculated he'd end up with the Marlins. Mesa + the four prospects - O'Days contract could make this into a very good deal for Baltimore...but Mesa is a key piece in this and there is no guarantee that he will sign with the Orioles.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/in-safeco-field-deal-it-feels-like-the-taxpayers-are-the-ones-about-to-get-toasted/ $500 toaster. Owner and/or players can't afford that! But, but, but, but...that toaster will generate so much money in tax revenue that it will be worth every penny! It will be a good deal in the end.

I wasn't a fan of this deal but what's done is done. Looking forward, the best move would be to offer arbitration and pay Schoop the money for the 2019 season even if he struggles from now until the end of the year. He will turn 27 this off-season, so there is no reason to think that any decline in performance is age-related (and permanent). While his .264 OBP in 2018 is horrible, he has still been a .266/.306/.467/.773 hitter since the beginning of 2016 and that's a pretty good slash line for a second baseman. He had some minor injury problems earlier this year, but he played in 162 games in 2016 and 160 games in 2017. His 162 game average from 2016 to present is 30 HR/90 RBI. The most likely scenario is that the Brewers will look to trade him, and then bring in a cheaper, veteran 2B to play 2.5 months to bridge the gap to Hiura. I'm not saying that I favor having Hiura in the minors for 2+ months next year, but that's the way the "control/Super 2" game is played and that's likely what the Brewers have in mind. However, with Schoop's poor performance this year, it could be difficult to find a buyer for him especially with how down the second base market has been over the last year+. If push comes to shove, I pay Schoop the money and keep him for 2019. The Brewers, being the smallest market team, just cannot afford to give up assets for nothing. Despite how bad Schoop has looked recently, he'll be a 27 year old that was an All-Star and finished 12th in MVP voting in 2017. Players like that just should not get cut loose without any type of compensation coming back.

With the season he's having this year I highly doubt he will get a significant raise, if any raise at all. Agreed it would be a small increase but i thought the rule of thumb is arbitration always goes up at least 15-20% each year and never down? Eitherway, someone noticed he will be able to reject any option so thankfully this scenario can’t be played out. The rule used to be that an arbitration eligible player, before he earned free agency, would get a minimum 20% raise if he was offered arbitration. That rule has changed, and now I think that a player can receive no more than a 20% cut in pay (I may be wrong about that). However, the pay cut angle is generally only used for players who have some type of significant injury, and Schoop will not fall into that group even if he hits .100/.125/.250/.375 from now until the end of the season. It's a pretty good bet that he'll get somewhere around a 25% raise if the Brewers offer him arbitration. I'd guess he'd be in line for about a 10.5-10.75 million dollar salary next year.

Schoop's a low OBP guy who has been known for bad offensive stretches. Kind of surprised that this is the guy who Stearns ended up getting. But it really can't be debated that the Brewers needed to be in near desperation mode to get runs from the bottom of the order. And despite BrewerFan's love for the minor league system, I really don't think Stearns had very many attractive pieces to deal if Hiura, Burnes, Peralta and Ray were removed from consideration. My disappointment could be largely biased because I like OBP above all else when it comes to hitters. The Schoop/Moustakas combination seemed like a complete 180 from what Stearns was doing when he went out and acquired players like Yelich and Cain. Hopefully these guys will be able to get some key hits down the stretch.

Disappointing loss today, but I'm pretty encouraged after seeing this series. After this one and the last series in Colorado, I truly believe the Brewers are the better team. If so, the NL comes down to the Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Brewers are one of seven teams trying to get one of the five spots. And the Nationals put themselves in a real hole by sleepwalking through most of this season. They are 6 games behind the Brewers.

I don't see this as a issue at all. A couple months back I took at the 40 man and figured they would only be one spot short if Burnes was promoted early. That happened but since then at least five spots have opened up and only one more taken for next year. Villar, Phillips and Lopez all off the 40-man. Ortiz and Medeiros now out of the equation. Schoop has to be accounted for, assuming he isn't traded again this off-season (Brewers might want to move his salary). 40 man probably looks something like this once it gets into the off-season: Pitchers (19) = Albers, Anderson, Barnes, Burnes, Chacin, Davies, Diplan, Guerra, Hader, Houser, Jeffress, Jennings, Knebel, Miley, Nelson, Peralta, Suter, Williams, Woodruff (Soria option unlikely to be picked up, Asher and Wilkinson off the 40 man) Catcher (3) = Nottingham, Pina (Kratz likely off and a different veteran catcher picked up) Infield (7) = Aguilar, Arcia, Dubon, Perez, Schoop, Shaw, Thames (Moustakas option unlikely to be picked up, Orf and Saladino off the 40 man) Outfield (5) = Braun, Broxton, Cain, Santana, Yelich Approximate total = 34 Not really interested in debating any particular player or off-season acquisitions here. For example, if the Brewers go for a big pitching upgrade, that add would probably knock Wade Miley off of the list, etc. On the flip side, they could look to upgrade catcher but then a MLB piece (maybe someone like Schoop or Thames) that has value could be included in the deal. There are many different variations and moves that will be made but I think 34 is a pretty fair estimate of how it will shake out. Currently there are only 4 players that I would protect. Cody Ponce, Troy Stokes, Trey Supak, Quintin Torres-Costa. Regarding Stokes, I like him but I don't think there is a future for him in Milwaukee with Yelich and Cain being long-term commitments. He only gets protected due to the speculated trade value he may have. I would have included Gatewood strictly for trade value as well, but I just can't see a team Rule 5'ing an injured first baseman who struggles to post a .300 OBP. Many of the other names that get thrown in there, like Phil Bickford, frankly I'm a bit surprised that names like that come up at all. Other names I can understand, like Perrin, but I just don't see there being enough MLB upside there to lose sleep over if he would get Rule 5'ed by another team. Personally, I think the Brewers are in pretty decent shape to have 38 players on the 40 man roster when the Rule 5 draft arrives.

1. IF-Keston Hiura 2. RHP-Corbin Burnes 3. OF-Corey Ray 4. IF-Brice Turang 5. IF-Lucas Erceg 6. OF-Tristen Lutz 7. IF-Mauricio Dubon 8. C-Jacob Nottingham 9. RHP-Zack Brown 10. RHP-Adrian Houser 11. OF-Troy Stokes Jr. 12. OF-Joe Gray 13. RHP-Trey Supak 14. RHP-Cody Ponce 15. C-Payton Henry 16. RHP-Marcos Diplan 17. OF-Trent Grisham 18. IF-Jake Gatewood 19. IF-Chad McClanahan 20. OF-Carlos Rodriguez 21. RHP-Caden Lemons 22. OF-Micah Bello 23. LHP-Quintin Torres-Costa 24. OF-Je'Von Ward 25. C-KJ Harrison 26. C-Mario Feliciano 27. LHP-Aaron Ashby 28. OF-Demi Orimoloye 29. OF-Larry Ernesto 30. OF-Eduarqui Fernandez

Assuming that guys pitch the same way over the last ~60 games as they pitched over the first ~100, I'd start the game with Hader and have Peralta follow him. Lefties hitting .066/.159/.066/.225 off Hader so the opposing manager would likely be forced to load up with right handers. Peralta comes in whenever Hader meets the pitch limit. So far righties have hit .066/.182/.118/.300 off Peralta.

I wasn't any type of supporter of adding Lynn. Earlier today I made a post about Lynn in the Transaction Proposal Forum, and noted that he's put together a decent enough ERA if one subtracts out the train-wreck month he had in April. However, the peripherals are still not very good. He might end up being a decent pickup when considering the price. I speculated the Brewers could get him for 1 fringe prospect. The Yankees ended up trading what appears to be a AAAA player plus a fringe prospect, but the Twins also kicked in money seemingly to help the Yankees luxury tax situation which probably why there were two pieces heading back to the Twins instead of just one. I just didn't think he'd be any type of an upgrade over what the Brewers had and just didn't like the idea of trying to fit him into the rotation while seeing if injury to another player would result in him being needed. Is Anderson, Chacin, Peralta, Guerra, Miley that bad where we need to fit Lynn in for insurance? Well I don't like Miley and figure there is an implosion on the near horizon but that's what Woodruff is for. Now adding someone like Gausman, that would be different. But for the Yankees, they had some issues with the back end of their rotation and Tanaka and Sabathia concern me. Lynn isn't as bad as the 5.10 ERA indicates, he might prove to be a decent pickup for the Yankees when considering the price-tag.

I'd go with C. I was all for being a buyer and would have liked to see Stearns target Asdrubal Cabrera and AJ Ellis. Never really did find a good pitching matchup. The guys who I would have liked to see them add are likely to be very overpriced, and I'm not really interested in throwing any assets into a mediocre starter. Kind of have to go by what I see and what the numbers demonstrate. Brewer NL rank in runs per game = 11th Brewers NL rank in starter's ERA = 4th Brewers NL rank in bullpen ERA = 3rd

Curious on how you calculated surplus value. You must be estimated how much he gets in arby in 2019-2020 starting with his $5.6M this year?..... Yah, I don't get close to $47 million. BPro '16-'18: 6.2 WAR Bref '16-'18: 9.5 WAR (they don't do projections so guessing at remaining 1/3 of '18) FG '16-'18: 7.6 WAR (using ZiPS projection) That totals 23.3 WAR total, or 7.8 average over '16-'18, or 2.6 average per year. 2.6 WAR x 2 1/3 year of control = 6.1 WAR from now until end of contract. $WAR/year estimates vary between about $8 million - $10 million depending on how you measure spending (based on projections or actual performance), and not adjusting for positional variances. So let's call it $9 million. $9 million x 6.1 WAR = $55 million of total value being produced. As for arbitration, Gausman is going to have just under 5 years of service time at the end of the year. Looking at comps, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect arb salaries of $8.5 million in '19 and $11.5 million in '20 (which is probably light). Call it $20 million for '19-'20 plus $2 million remaining this year, gives a total remaining cost of contract of $22 million. So $55 million of value less $22 million of cost gives $33 million of surplus value by my back of the envelope math. That's about the value of a 55+40+40 or a 50+50+35 OFP prospect package. So my guess would be in the neighborhood of Ortiz+Bickford+Torres-Costa or Houser+Dubon+Wilkerson. When the WAR values for 2018 are extrapolated to cover a full season, the seasonal WAR's are as follows: Baseball Reference = 4.1 (2016), 2.0 (2017), 3.6 (2018) Fangraphs = 3.0, 2.5, 2.0 Take the average of the six numbers = 2.9 Only 27 years old so no regession is factored in. 2018 = 1 WAR = 9.16 million, 2019 = 1 WAR = 9.80 million, 2020 = 1 WAR = 10.49 million 2018 = 2.9 WAR * 0.33 (only 1/3 of season left) = 0.95 WAR * 9.16 million = 8.70 million 2019 = 2.9 WAR * 9.80 million = 28.42 million 2020 = 2.9 WAR * 10.16 million = 30.421 million Total value = 67.541 million Remaining salaries. 2018 = 5.6 million * 0.33 (only 1/3 of season left) = 1.86 million 2019 = 7.85 million (arbitration guess) 2020 = 10.60 million (arbitration guess) Total earnings = 20.31 million 67.541 - 20.31 = 47.231 million in surplus value

Valuing Gausman as a 2.9 WAR player per season from now until the end of the team's control, and his surplus value comes out to 47.231 million. I don't think it's realistic for the Orioles to get that, but 35-40 million would be very realistic. I don't think they should move him at all if offers come in at less than 30 million. Peralta and Stokes evaluations are clear cut IMO. Peralta is a #76-#100 pitcher and that's worth 17.86 million in prospect surplus value. Stokes is a role-player prospect and that's worth 5.72 million in prospect surplus value. Combined value is 23.58 million, short of what I would expect the minimum would be for Gausman. I'd slot Woodruff as a tweener between #76-#100 pitcher and top 10 organizational prospect, which would put his surplus value at 14.66 million. Adding him in brings the value of the package to 38.24 million which is almost right in the middle of the range for the fair asking price for Gausman. The package also included two major league ready starting pitchers, which is what the Orioles were reported to want in the Machado deal (and didn't get). I think the Orioles would do this deal. The bigger questions are...would Stearns see proper value in this and if he did...could he risk the depth concerns of bringing in one starter but shipping out two starters in one trade?

Lance Lynn maybe? 5.10 ERA, 1.63 WHIP are awful. Much of that was due to a terrible start. 8.37 ERA in April, 3.76 in May, 2.83 in June, 6.08 in July. The July ERA has ballooned due to one disaster game against the Cubs on July 1 where he gave up 7 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings. Without that one start his July ERA would be 3.68. I'm not a big fan of excluding data, but clearly the bad start in April is an outlier. From the beginning of May until now (including the July 1 start), he's had a 4.12 ERA. Lynn did have a 6 start stretch from May 22 through June 20 where he threw 36 1/3 innings and had a 1.73 ERA. Then he had one bad start and then the disaster on July 1. Since that time he's started 4 games and has a 3.68 ERA over 22 innings. The peripherals are ugly enough where he's not going to have any real surplus value, which means if the Brewers would likely only have to give up a fringe prospect (and not a better one at that) if they were willing to pick up the rest of Lynn's salary. Lynn is due a couple big bonuses if he hits some innings incentives. I don't think those incentives are likely to be reached, but the Twins would likely be willing to pick up a large percentage of that in order to dump the remainder of this year's salary on Milwaukee. I'm not really a proponent of trading for Lynn. But if the price for someone like Gausman is too high and Stearns feel it absolutely necessary to pick up another starter for depth, then Lynn seems to be one of the better options out there. I would definitely rather have Lynn instead of Matt Harvey.