JosephC

I was hoping for Hankins but never thought McClanahan would be there. I'm in the McClanahan boat too.

Wow, really surprising that both Liberatore and Singer are both there. Figured both to go in top 5 and were almost a lock to be top 10. To think one would slide wouldn't be unreasonable, but both?

Really, really, really bummed out that the Mets took Kelenic. Not exactly my favorite organization.

Using And That's list from page 6, my personal favorites for the Brewers picks would be: 21 - RHP-Ethan Hankins 60 - LHP-Konnor Pilkington 73 - RHP-Aaron Hernandez 125 - OF-Jake Mangum 155 - C-Jacob Campbell Stearns has done a nice job putting together a pitching staff that IMO looks better than the everyday lineup. But after watching bad Brewer pitching staffs for so long, I'm nearly always in favor of using the first pick on the guy that I think has the highest upside as a starter. It could be argued that Hankins isn't that guy but he's emerged as my favorite from the "available at #21" pitchers. Picks 60 and 73 turned out to be pitchers just because those are the players I liked the most at those picks, really didn't have any desire to take pitchers with each of the first three picks but that's just the way it turned out. I think Mangum is under-rated, the knocks on him are legitimate but this guy has had some injury problems and if those get sorted out I think he has very good top-of-the-lineup potential with plus ability as a defensive player. In all honesty, my studying doesn't go much further down the list so I'm hoping the Brewers take a chance on the Wisconsin player at #155. I've heard some good things about him from the locals so why not? Also would like to say the two Mississippi State players is just coincidence, although I have seen a few Mississippi State games on TV over the last couple years.

My mock draft. Don't claim to be an expert. Pretty much ignored all the speculation of "this team is looking at so-and-so player" because that stuff didn't seem to be very accurate last year. Pretty much ignored needs at the MLB level but did consider minor league depth/needs when projecting picks. I still came up with Larnach to the Brewers at #21. He's not a personal favorite of mine or anything like that. I just think he's the type of player that Stearns would like because the bat seems really solid. Please forgive any typos, I did this pretty quick and did no proof-reading. Round One 1. Detroit Tigers = RHP-Casey Mize 2. San Francisco Giants = LHP-Matthew Liberatore 3. Philadelphia Phillies = C-Joey Bart 4. Chicago White Sox = 2B/SS-Nick Madrigal 5. Cincinnati Reds = RHP-Brady Singer 6. New York Mets = OF-Travis Swaggerty 7. San Diego Padres = OF-Jarred Kelenic 8. Atlanta Braves = SS/2B-Brice Turang 9. Oakland Athletics = 3B/1B-Alec Bohm 10. Pittsburgh Pirates = RHP-Carter Stewart 11. Baltimore Orioles = IF-Jonathan India 12. Toronto Blue Jays = RHP-Cole Winn 13. Miami Marlins = 3B-Nolan Gorman 14. Seattle Mariners = LHP-Ryan Weathers 15. Texas Rangers = LHP-Shane McClanahan 16. Tampa Bay Rays = RHP-Logan Gilbert 17. Los Angeles Angels = RHP-Jackson Kowar 18. Kansas City Royals = RHP-Mason Denaburg 19. St. Louis Cardinals = C/3B-Noah Naylor 20. Minnesota Twins = OF-Connor Scott 21. Milwaukee Brewers = OF-Trevor Larnach 22. Colorado Rockies = RHP-Kumar Rocker 23. New York Yankees = 1B-Triston Casas 24. Chicago Cubs = SS-Xavier Edwards 25. Arizona Diamondbacks = LHP-Ryan Rolison 26. Boston Red Sox = OF-Jordyn Adams 27. Washington Nationals = RHP-Cole Wilcox 28. Houston Astros = SS-Jeremy Eierman 29. Cleveland Indians = RHP-Ethan Hankins 30. Los Angeles Dodgers = RHP-Grayson Rodriguez Compensation picks 31. Tampa Bay Rays = RHP-J.T. Ginn 32. Tampa Bay Rays = RHP-Adam Kloffenstein 33. Kansas City Royals = SS/2B-Nico Hoerner 34. Kansas City Royals = RHP-Sean Hjelle 35. Cleveland Indians = LHP-Kris Bubic Competitive Balance Round A 36. Pittsburgh Pirates = C-Anthony Seigler 37. Baltimore Orioles = SS-Jeremiah Jackson 38. San Diego Padres = OF-Nick Schnell 39. Arizona Diamondbacks = OF-Greyson Jenista 40. Kansas City Royals = RHP-Tristan Beck 41. Cleveland Indians = OF-Steele Walker 42. Colorado Rockies = OF-Jake McCarthy 43. St. Louis Cardinals = RHP-Lineras Torres Jr. Round Two 44. Detroit Tigers = OF-Mike Siani 45. San Francisco Giants = 3B-Jordan Groshans 46. Chicago White Sox = RHP-Blaine Knight 47. Cincinnati Reds = LHP-Konnor Pilkington 48. New York Mets = RHP-Owen White 49. Atlanta Braves = OF-Alek Thomas 50. Oakland Athletics = RHP-Griffin Roberts 51. Pittsburgh Pirates = LHP-Tim Cate 52. Toronto Blue Jays = OF-Jameson Hannah 53. Miami Marlins = C-Will Banfield 54. Seattle Mariners = SS-Matt McLain 55. Texas Rangers = RHP-Gunnar Hoglund 56. Tampa Bay Rays = LHP-Daniel Lynch 57. Los Angeles Angels = OF-Kyler Murray 58. Kansas City Royals = OF-Parker Meadows 59. Minnesota Twins = RHP-Tanner Dodson 60. Milwaukee Brewers = SS-Nander De Sedas 61. New York Yankees = OF-Griffin Conine 62. Chicago Cubs = OF-Joe Gray Jr. 63. Arizona Diamondbacks = SS-Cadyn Grenier 64. Boston Red Sox = SS-Tyler Frank 65. Washington Nationals = RHP-Braxton Ashcraft 66. Houston Astros = OF-Tristan Pompey 67. Cleveland Indians = 1B-Seth Beer 68. Los Angeles Dodgers = SS-Jonathan Ornelas Competitive Balance Round B 69. Miami Marlins = RHP-Trey Riley 70. Oakland Athletics = RHP-Slade Cecconi 71. Tampa Bay Rays = OF-Zach Watson 72. Cincinnati Reds = OF-Kyle Isbel 73. Milwaukee Brewers = RHP-Lyon Richardson 74. San Diego Padres = RHP-Cole Sands Compensation Picks 75. St. Louis Cardinals = SS-Osiris Johnson 76. Colorado Rockies = RHP-Zack Hess 77. Chicago Cubs = 1B-Luken Baker 78. Chicago Cubs = RHP-Aaron Hernandez

I think Murray's heart truly lies with football. The quote from Oklahoma baseball coach Skip Johnson says a lot IMO, "I think he knows he's going to be a baseball player vs. a football player long-term. He talks about it. He knows where his game is and what he wants to do to get better in the game. He understands that; he's not 6-foot-5." Murray knows his NFL potential is very limited but is still going to give football "equal time" when he'll likely have a multi-million dollar commitment from a baseball team in his hand. Could be a few years before he'd be fully committed to baseball. He has two more seasons of football eligibility left and certainly is athletic enough were NFL teams might be interested in trying him out as a receiver.

Looks infinitely better than most team's road uniforms these days. That horrid grey color looks just terrible. If I were lead dictator that might be the first thing that would be changed. Home uniforms = white. If team color is blue then road uniform = blue. If team color is red then road uniform = red. Grey only allowed if the team color was grey and the mascot was a concrete block.

I haven't seen anything that makes me think the Brewer top 100 rankings should change much at all. Hiura should be in the 40's unless there have been enough graduates ahead of him to bump him into the 30s (which I don't think will happen). Burnes may not have flashy ERA and WHIP but he is still posting nearly a 3:1 K:BB ratio and has a really reasonable HR allowed rate for pitching in Colorado...don't see his stock changing much at all. Ray's stock is on the upswing but probably not enough to push him back in the top 100 although it should be close (and I wouldn't be all that surprised to see him back in the 90's). Peralta should get some consideration but I think the walk rate, and if he is a reliever long-term, will probably keep him out. Only real significant change IMO is Erceg, who I believe was on one or two top 100 lists at the beginning of the season. At .289 OBP/.615 OPS this season, and now sitting at a career .324 OBP/.755 OPS in 1000+ MiLB plate appearances, he really shouldn't be given top 100 consideration. Not that there is anything wrong with .324/.755...it's just not top 100 quality when talking about a corner infielder past the 1000 PA mark. I also don't see Gatewood getting anything close to top 100 recognition. The difference between Ray and Gatewood is that Gatewood is a first baseman and it's likely that 100% of the respect he gets will come from his bat. Ray has hit this year but also have plus upside as a versatile defensive outfielder and could prove to be a real asset when running the bases. So far this year Gatewood is a .304 OBP/.769 OPS and sits at .297 OBP/.700 OPS over his whole MiLB career. Don't see those numbers getting top 100 consideration when talking about a first baseman. Intriguing second or third piece in a trade as a possible power bat down the road...that's something I'd totally get on board with.

I have a strong feeling I'm going to be a digital subscriber to Baseball America before we get to the weekend. Not being able to look at their draft ranking is driving me nuts.

I guarantee if Aguilar did that to a Cub's catcher then 100% of this board would be saying it was a clean play and would be complaining about the Cub's complaining about the play. Well maybe not 100%, but at least 90%.

I'd guess the Brewer's pick will be OF-Trevor Larnach. All of Stearns high-profile acquisitions (first pick in draft, high-profile international free agent signings, trade for Yelich, signing of Cain) have all been bats and I don't see anything that makes me think he would deviate from that in this draft. The pick of Hiura showed that Stearns isn't limited into toolsy outfielders and that defense might actually factor somewhat lower than expected in the equation when dealing with amateurs. There was a great deal of love/hate with Grisham, but many loved his offensive upside and it's not unreasonable to think the Brewers were one of those teams and had him as the best bat available when they picked him. Very likely they saw the same thing in Ray and Hiura. So based on that, I'd simply project them to take whomever is the favorite bat is at #21 and Larnach could be that player. I'm sure there will be a lot of grumbling since Larnach is a LF/1B (although I think he plays mostly RF at Oregon State), and some of that will come from me. But in terms of the bat, Larnach seems really solid. Kyler Murray is another guy that I think the Brewers would love, but I just don't think he's a possibility because of the Oklahoma scholarship/QB position.

Kratz rates as plus-plus-plus in terms of veteran grit.

The Brewers also might be in a position where they cannot deal Santana. He sure looked like an extra piece a couple months ago but now looks pretty essential. Braun sitting at a miserable .223/.268/.408/.675 and it's almost a guarantee he'll miss a chunk of games later in the year. Wouldn't exactly be looking forward to seeing Hernan Perez getting 20 starts in the outfield during September.

So far this season Arcia is a 0.3 WAR player according to Baseball Reference and a -0.2 WAR player according to Fangraphs. Take the average and then extrapolate it over a full season and he is projected as a 0.4 WAR player for this season. The average between the two sites for the 2017 season is 1.9 WAR. The majority of the league probably only views him as about a 1.0 WAR player at this point in time. Simply put, the player just has not shown enough from an offensive standpoint to merit any significant trade value.

I agree with JohnBriggs, it makes all the sense in the world for them to trade Perez but he's the one guy they probably would prefer not to trade. He just brings too much in the "intangibles" category, and it makes sense that he would be the one guy they would hold onto through a rebuild process. If they deal him, they would probably demand the other team to overpay for him. Perez really shouldn't carry a Realmuto type price-tag, but that's likely what they would ask for.

I wouldn't be opposed to trading for Profar as a candidate for second base, but there's no way would I trade for him with the intent to play him at shortstop. He's at -8 DRS which is a horrible number for only having played 308 innings and also at -11.9 UZR/150. It would be different if he were a .900 OPS guy, but he only has a .313 OBP and .723 OPS. The defensive downgrade from Arcia to Profar would be so dramatic it could very well exceed any offensive gain. If Arcia rebounds to a still very mediocre .650 OPS by season's end, I'm guessing he'd be a much better contributor than Profar when factoring in the defense.

Without going through all the numbers again, I had Yelich as having 150 million dollars in surplus value before the trade was made. Also felt that was unrealistic for the Marlins to get that based on the type of packages that would be required to reach that figure. I thought 120 million was achieveable and put that as the price the Marlins would likely seek. I had the package the Brewers surrendering at 110 million at the time. I suspect the difference between the 110 million and the 93-94 million that you estimated is due to Brinson as I probably slotted him in the the 11-25 group. I called the trade a slight bargain for the Brewers, that's what the numbers showed even though I didn't like the trade. Your 140 million dollar surplus value on Yelich seems like it would be very accurate in terms of the raw numbers. Although like with the Marlins, if the Brewers put him on the market they would only likely be able to fetch a return in the 95-100 million dollar range. The chart isn't meant to be rigid at all. We can all argue about where someone like Brandon Woodruff would be slotted. Someone could also legitimately argue that Burnes should be right at the top end of the 51-75 group and therefore should be assigned a number closer to the 26-50 group rather than the 51-75 group. Lots of "play" involved. What I think the chart is best for is identifying completely lop-sided/ridiculous sort of trade suggestions. For example, if someone suggested Realmuto for Erceg + Ponce + Nottingham, it's hard to look at the numbers and find a way that this trade would make any sense for the Marlins.

In the short term, if Arcia continues to struggle at this extent, I wouldn't mind seeing Saladino getting more at-bats to see if his bat stays hot. I have little doubt that when his career ends, people will look back and view Saladino as a sub-par MLB hitter. But even sub-par bats have been known to go on a hot streak for a month or two. See Sogard last year.

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Here is my surplus value chart for this year: 1 WAR = 9.16 million Prospect surplus values: Hitter 1-10 = 84.16 million Hitter 11-25 = 70.98 million Hitter 26-50 = 43.73 million Hitter 51-75 = 25.65 million Hitter 76-100 = 23.58 million Pitcher 1-10 = 80.03 million Pitcher 11-25 = 44.65 million Pitcher 26-50 = 34.12 million Pitcher 51-75 = 18.9 million Pitcher 76-100 = 17.86 million Top 10 organizational prospect = 11.45 million Role Player Prospect = 5.72 million Fringe Prospect = 2.29 million The top 100 values above are taken from the Point of Pittsburgh blog. The values have been adjusted up 7% annually over the last two years. Same was done with the WAR estimate (was 8 million and adjusted up 7% annually over the last two years). So if anybody thinks the WAR value is 10% too high, then every number listed above should be adjusted down 10% because I've kept the same ratio. Numbers still seemed accurate at last year's trade deadline, we'll see if that remains the same this year. So as far as the Brewers. Burnes = pitcher 51-75 = 18.9 million Woodruff and Peralta = I'd have Woodruff still in the pitcher 76-100 group which would put him at 17.86 million, I'd have Peralta in the top 10 organizational prospect group which would put him at 11.45 million, since Woodruff could be considered a dropper and Peralta could be considered a riser let's split the difference and put each of them at 14.66 million Ray = easy call as top 10 organizational prospect = 11.45 million Nottingham = fringe prospect = 2.29 million 18.9 + 14.66 + 11.45 + 2.29 = 47.3 million in surplus value when not including Hiura

Jacob Campbell - Catcher - Janesville Craig Anybody know anything about Campbell? I was talking with a colleague today who attends some of the high school games in the Janesville area when he gets a chance (all sports). He said that MLB scouts were frequently at Janesville Craig games this year as they apparently have multiple players with Division 1 offers. A couple different scouts said that Campbell "will be drafted higher than most people think." All I know about Campbell is that he's supposed to have good upside as a defensive catcher and is an Illinois commit. Anyone have any commentary about him and approximate round he is expected to go?

I think, at a minimum, Realmuto should bring at least 60 million in prospect surplus value, and IMO the value of 3/4/5/6/26 right now would only be around 55 million, so that is short. I also regret bringing up Prado's name because I don't think he's a possibility as a salary dump on Milwaukee considering the impending arbitration situation. I may have been the first one to bring up Ortiz but that was over a month ago and before he ended up with an extended time on the DL. Take him out of the equation now unless it's as the third or fourth piece in a deal. Biggest issue the Brewers have as buyers right now is the valuation of Hiura. As a #26-#50 hitter, the surplus value figure on him should be somwhere around 43 million. But I would guess that most other teams would not put that number on him right now. He may be in playing in the field everyday, but my guess is that teams would be hesitant to build a major deal around him considering the elbow problems. If the Brewers get low-balled on Hiura's number, then they keep him and if he's not in a deal it becomes very difficult to add up enough surplus dollars to swing a deal for a player like Realmuto. As a mock Marlin's representative, today my ask for Realmuto would be: -Keston Hiura -Corbin Burnes -Brandon Woodruff or Freddy Peralta (Brewers pick) -Corey Ray -Jacob Nottingham The 4 non-Hiura prospects add up to approximately 47.3 million in surplus value, so using the 60 million baseline (which is the mimium), it would only value Hiura at 12.7 million which is basically "top 10 organizational prospect" status and would be too low IMO. But 60 million is the minimum for Realmuto, 70 million might be a better representation of what he'll actually bring. That would put the Hiura's value at 22.7 million which is just below the range of a #76-#100 hitter. It's not crazy to think the majority opinion among MLB GMs would have Hiura in that group considering some of the issues (elbow, defense, slow start against RHP this season). So even though at first glance that ask might seem crazy, it wouldn't be out of line for the Marlin's to request something like that.

Kind of surprised that nobody brought up Robinson Chirinos. Yes, he's been bad at the plate this year (.198/.280/.414/.694). But from 2015-2017 his slash line is .240/.337/.476/.813. Like Pina against lefties? Chirinos slashed .220/.318/.446/.764 against righties from 2015-2017 and that might not be great but it's more than the team would get out of Bandy. Simply a product of the home park? .223/.322/.473/.795 on the road from 2015-2017. Chirinos is only a part timer and is only good for about 70 games per year, which makes him a good fit if the Brewer's aren't looking to kick Pina to the curb. Chirinos' contract isn't an issue at all. Due about 1.7 million for the remainder of this season and has a 1 million dollar buyout for next year (only 2.375 million if the option year is picked up). His average seasonal WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs from 2015-2017 is about 1.7 which is surprisingly good considering he has only averaged about 70 games per season. And while the production has been pretty good and the contract is pretty low, it's doubtful that the Rangers would put a high price-tag on him because he is getting up in age, is not having a great season and has been a backup/part-timer for almost his entire career.

Good idea for a thread, I might try to come up with some values if I have the time this weekend. Obviously just a complete guess, but I'd think most MLB GMs see Hader as a reliever. If so, Yelich likely has greater surplus value.

If anyone doesn't like Ray, then that individual does not like the Brewer's system. I'm not one to get too excited over 6 weeks of stats. But with Woodruff's graduation, Ray appears to be firmly in the organization's top 5 prospects. In alphabetical order, Burnes, Hiura, Peralta, Phillips, Ray...I really don't see how anyone else could be included in that group right now. I know there are still some writers that really like Erceg, but so far he has a .588 OPS this year and only sits at .757 over his minor league career. Ray's MiLB OPS is lower, at .713, but he seems headed in the opposite direction as Erceg and his speed and defensive assets should put him at least one notch above Erceg. I still really like Ortiz but feel strongly that his "nagging" injury history and lack of innings pushes him out of the top 5 group. Grisham doesn't have enough pop in his bat to overcome his questionable hit tool IMO. If he was a potential gold glover in centerfield it would be easy to overlook the offensive deficiencies, but he's not that and the offensive problems really become significant as a corner outfielder. Lutz has upside but is way, way, way more of an unknown at this point. I could keep on going right down the list, but Ray seems really solid in the top 5 as of today. I've been on this idea for awhile, but if doing a comparison to a current MLB'er, I think Ray has a decent chance to be a Starling Marte type player and would guess that's what the Brewers were hoping for when they drafted Ray. Marte's gotten off to a great start this year, but throw that out and from 2012-2017 he slashed .288/.344/.439/.783. Good for around 15 home runs and 30 stolen bases per season. Marte has won two gold gloves. I don't know if the Brewer's would seriously anticipate that level of defense out of Ray, but clearly the expectation would be a plus defender and a guy that can play any of the outfield spots. When looking at the whole picture, Marte has been a pretty solid 3.5-4.0 WAR player. Basically a player that does everything well and has no obvious hole in his game. That's what I'm still hoping for in Ray. Not a guy who is an offensive superstar or flashy defender, but a player that just does everything well.