JosephC

Jett Bandy = 28 years old = 477 MLB plate appearance = .220/.283/.371/.654 Christian Bethancourt = 26 years old = 489 plate appearances = .222/.252/.316/.567 I'd just stick with Bandy. I really don't think Bethancourt's prospect status from five years ago has any relevance.

Brewers likely get low-balled if putting Hiura on the market in search of a plus veteran player. #1 thing in his development right now should be getting innings in the field, and the fact that he's DH-ing speaks volumes about that elbow. The Brewers might say the elbow isn't an issue, but I doubt any other GM's would believe it. Only one way Hiura proves that elbow is good, and that's by logging extensive innings in the field. Until he does that he's a 21 year old DH. The Brewers have more than enough to make trades for back-end-starters, relievers, non-middle of the order bats...but if looking for a middle-of-the-order bat or a #2/#3 starter or better, then I question how much value they have in the minor leagues to swing that type of deal. Most of the top 10 guys that had a chance to bump up their stock have gotten off to mediocre starts and are not looking anything like top 100 prospects anymore. Ray, Erceg and Ortiz winding up on the DL...if those guys weren't firmly off top 100 lists then they should be now. Lutz has been better lately but still looks like he may be over-matched in full season ball. Even Peralta has some issues if looking to trade. He's not a very big guy and his walk rate has been high each of the last two seasons. I'd guess most opposing teams would look at him as a bullpen guy. Once out of the top 10, most of the guys in the next tier (Houser, Diplan, Gatewood) have gotten off to bad starts. If I'm an opposing GM, if talking with Milwaukee about trading for a good veteran player, I start with Josh Hader (who the Brewers should remove from trade consideration), Domingo Santana (I likely value him much, much higher than MLB GMs would), Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich (if I have the payroll space to add him) and from the prospects the only names I would put in with those veterans are Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. I'm sure I'm forgetting a name or two, but off the top of my head that's it. Everybody else would be 3rd or 4th pieces in a major trade. And yeah, even Hiura. I don't like trading for hurt guys and I don't think many GMs outside of Billy Beane do either. Hard for me to believe that GMs would give the Brewers top 50 value for Hiura (on my board it's 43.73 million in surplus value), and if that's the case then the wise move is for the Brewer's to keep him.

Do the Brewers even have enough minor league capital to get a deal like this done? I think it's a legitimate question. The Brewers might not have any concerns over Hiura's elbow, but it's a virtual guarantee that 29 other major league teams do. I think it's doubtful that the Brewers would get "full value" for him until he spends an extended amount of time in the field and proves that the elbow is not a problem. Erceg and Ray are off to mediocre starts again this year after being mediocre last year. Ortiz got off to a nice start but got DL'ed again. Doesn't look like the number of innings question will be answered this year. Grisham's hit tool is looking sub-par and he doesn't have enough pop in his bat to overcome that IMO. Lutz has been better lately but to this point has been overmatched in full season ball. Burnes and Peralta have been the two best among the top-tier prospects but neither has been overwhelming. Peralta's walk rate has been rather unimpressive (4.4 BB/9 after 4.65 BB/9 last year). Then bouncing down to the next group and there are a bunch of pretty underwhelming performances there too in Diplan, Houser, Gatewood, etc. You get down the list and how many guys have done well? Stokes, Supak, Nottingham and maybe a couple more but not many. If I'm a opposing GM and if the Brewers are looking to get a top talent (middle of the order bat...tweener 2/3 starter or better), the first name I start with when looking at the Brewer's organization is Josh Hader. If the Brewers take his name off the board (which they should), I really question if the Brewers have enough to get a player like Fulmer. Second name I'd ask about would be Santana, but considering the Brewers didn't move him this off-season, it's probably safe to say that I value Santana far higher than the average MLB GM does. Yelich would be of interest if the trading team can take on the salary. Then in the minors there is Burnes and I'm not seeing a whole lot else. Woodruff still is lurking in there, he should still have back end top 100 talent even with the Brewers totally messing around with the MLB-AAA rotation-bullpen nonsense that they've put him through so far.

Were hitters under the impression that it would only help the grip when those comments were made? Were they aware that it also can lead to a dramatic improvement in spin rate as well? Would hitters have the same opinion today with the information that's out there? Not saying they wouldn't, but it's an issue that MLB/MLBPA needs to look at and it needs to be addressed. And to address an earlier reply, yes, I think umpires should be checking all pitchers for anything other than rosin, not just Indian's pitchers.

I like this bullpen but still see some rough outings ahead. I just don't see ERAs like 0.48 being sustainable. Good news is that the difference between the bullpen ERA and FIP is only about 0.50 runs, so maybe the "correction" won't be all that bad.

Before making any roster moves, I'd still like them to start Villar at 2B for three solid weeks (unannounced) and just see how he does. Absolutely hate that they currently seem content with Arcia/Bandy and then a pitcher hitting ahead of Cain and Yelich. Way, way too much RBI potential wasted in the big off-season acquisitions by doing that. I'm not even that big a fan of Villar, but clearly at this point he has way more offensive upside than Perez and Sogard (and Blanco and Saladino and probably Orf too) and the Brewers need offense. Don't care if Villar is 9th in the order or 1st in the order, but get him ahead of the Cain/Yelich combo. If he goes out an does something like .240/.290/.370/.660 during the three weeks then bring in the reinforcements from the minors. But it's not crazy to think he could do something like .260/.330/.390/.720. .330 OBP is not ideal but is probably good enough and would give a decent kick start to the offense. 1. Villar 2. Cain 3. Yelich (LF/RF - depends on who plays in 4th spot) 4. Braun/Santana (starter based on matchup) 5. Shaw 6. Aguilar/Thames (Jesus job for now, platoon when Thames gets back) 7. Pina 8. Arcia 9. Pitcher And again, wouldn't mind putting Villar in #9 spot and bouncing everyone else up one spot.

Is that last comment specific to the Brewers, or to the product MLB is putting on the field these days? http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18486/olney-have-big-swings-big-flies-and-big-whiffs-broken-baseball

I have no issues with Mejia's bat. But there are very legitimate questions if Mejia sticks behind the plate. Last year in the AFL they played him at 3B, but so far this season he's split time between catcher (14 games) and left field (11 games). If he doesn't stick behind the plate, it would be pretty miserable for Milwaukee if they had Yelich, Mejia and Braun all in the mix for LF playing time in 2019 and 2020. Even though I would be giving up value, I would almost rather get a package of prospects back from the Indians. Yu-Cheng Chang and Shane Bieber would be must includes. Would still be looking for two more names after that. Probably would start with Aaron Civale and Quentin Holmes and see if the Indians would go for that. Even though Bieber is not listed in anybody's top 100 today, I think chances are extremely strong that he's a back end top 100 pitcher in the mid-season updates. My surplus value tags on these guys would be 17.86 for Bieber, 11.45 for Chang, 11.45 for Civale and 5.72 for Holmes. Package total = 46.48 million. I think Mejia's value has slipped a bit. I'd probably put him at around #30 on the top 100 prospect list and for a hitter that would put his value in the area of 54.6 million. So I acknowledge that passing on Mejia would be giving up value. But in this case, I prefer to take the four players over one. My gut feeling is that 30 million in surplus value would be the absolute max the Brewers could expect to see in return for Knebel.

I still think if the Brewers make a 2B move and bring up someone from the minors, Stearn's order of preference would be something like (1) Blanco, (2) Saladino, (3) Dubon, (4) Orf.

Nice to see that we are already looking at how many times the Brewers match up against bad teams because so far that's the only way they've been able to win games. Against the Padres, Reds, Marlins, Royals = Brewers are 14-1 Against everybody else = Brewers are 6-14

I've already figured them out. Play one of the bottom 5 or 6 teams in the league and they are good for a sweep. Against almost all of the other teams they will lose 2 and win 1 when playing a 3 game series. Play the Cubs and it's likely the Brewers will get swept. Unfortunately I think they've already used up a good percentage of games against horrible MLB teams.

Cleveland's bullpen has been terrible so far. 5.11 ERA. Listing relievers by appearances: Cody Allen ® = 1.88 ERA, 1.19 WHIP Zach McAllister ® = 9.00 ERA, 1.83 WHIP Tyler Olson (L) = 7.15 ERA, 1.06 WHIP Nick Goody ® = 6.94 ERA, 1.71 WHIP (currently on DL) Dan Otero ® = 4.40 ERA, 0.98 WHIP Andrew Miller (L) = 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (currently on DL) Ben Taylor ® = 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP (only 1 1/3 innings so far) Alexi Ogando ® = 18.00 ERA, 5.00 WHIP (only 1 inning so far) Evan Marshall ® = 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP (only 2/3 innings so far) Drake does seem to fit in, hard to believe since we are talking about a contending ballclub. I liked picking up Ogando and stashing him in the minors as an insurance policy but he was bad in his first MLB outing this season. Never been that impressed with Evan Marshall. With Miller on the DL, Tyler Olson is the only lefty and he's been bad in two of his last three appearances. I don't know if the Indians would have had any serious plans of using Danny Salazar or Ryan Merritt as relievers, but those are two more guys that are on the DL.

MLB needs to get ahead of this right now. This could easily explode like the steroids scandal. Astros already won one World Series. If it drags on for three years and the stats guys put three years of data together and conclude that nearly every pitcher the Astros acquired during this timeframe had an immediate and significant increase in spin rate, then it's obvious that they are doctoring the baseball and then all the writers are completely justified in saying that MLB should have been on this early in 2018. First ex-Astro that would come out and say "yeah we were cheating, everyone knew and nobody cared" would completely blow the lid off. If I was the commissioner the order would have already gone out. When a pitcher gets on the mound an umpire checks his hat, glove, belt, forearms and face/neck for any foreign substance. Rosin on bill of cap OK. Anything else comes with automatic ejection and fine. This is not an opinion on if pitchers should be allowed to use pine tar or not. I have no problem if they change the rule this coming off season and make it legal for 2019. But right now it's not legal and if MLB decides to just look the other way, then they should take the same beating from sportswriters as they took after all the steroids stuff went down.

Brewer fans love the idea of a DH now, but I'd guess they won't be so happy a couple years after it happens. There is a reason why the Brewers wanted to get to the NL in the first place. When the Cubs and Cardinals are paying some guy 20 million to DH for them and he beats the crap out of the Brewer pitching staff, and the Brewers have some old broken down pea-shooter as their usual DH...then Brewer fans will probably be none too happy. DISCLAIMER : This does not apply if (A) MLB has a hard salary cap when the NL goes to a DH or (B) Attanasio decides he will spend just as much money as the Cubs on payroll (which would be double what it is now as Cots has the Brewer opening day payroll at 90 million and the Cubs opening day payroll at 182 million).

One start against the worst team in baseball

What are the chances that Orf is above Blanco and Saladino on Stearn's depth chart? I don't have anything against Orf. Always been intrigued by him as I think he got two 2017 mentions in the "Fringe Five" report that reilly refered to above. And there he is again within the first month of the 2018 season. There is reason to believe that he could fit in two of the biggest holes on the ballclub, leadoff hitter and second baseman. We can talk about Colorado Springs all day, but Orf was putting up pretty solid OBP numbers prior to getting to Colorado Springs. 2013 = Helena = .448 OBP 2014 = Brevard County = .388 OBP 2015 = Biloxi = .378 OBP 2016 = Biloxi/Colorado Springs = .357 OBP 2017 = Colorado Springs = .397 OBP 2018 = Colorado Springs = .460 OBP That's pretty impressive. Worst seasonal OBP of .357 and 2nd worse is .378. So far in the minors the OBP is .388 and that is with well over 2000 plate appearances. 258 walks and only 318 strikeouts. As far as not having pop in the bat, at this point I would say who cares. Brewer's priority should be finding a guy that can hit in the leadoff spot and get Cain's RBI potential out from being behind Arcia and a pitcher in the batting order. If they could find a second baseman who could OBP .350, then I don't see why slugging limitations would even matter because he'd probably be leading off. Unfortunately, Stearns didn't put him on the 40 man roster this past off-season and to me that speaks volumes. And after that he went out and acquired Blanco and Saladino. I'd love to see Orf get his shot, but all the moves indicate that Stearns doesn't see Orf as a major league player. Hopefully I'm wrong and Orf will get his chance in a Milwaukee uniform.

Obviously two different people and personalities with different problems, but Zach Braddock is the last sort-of-comparable that I can come up with. Have to give Zach credit as he did get to the majors. It's too bad it didn't last long because he seemed to have some real top-end talent.

Interesting that Miley's best month over the last three years has been May. Monthly ERAs, 2015-2017 April = 4.69 May = 4.03 June = 5.86 July = 5.68 August = 4.67 September = 5.89 October = 4.50 Some more numbers Slash line against Miley in 2017 = .287/.380/.462/.841 After throwing ball 1, slash line against Miley from 2015-2017 = .286/.400/.473/.873 These are very limited sample sizes, ERAs against NL Central opponents from 2015-2017: Cincinnati = 3.21 ERA, 14 innings pitched Chicago Cubs = 6.17 ERA, 11 2/3 innings pitched St. Louis = 7.94, 5 2/3 innings pitched Pittsburgh = 12.15 ERA, 6 2/3 innings pitched Had 1 appearance in Miller Park from 2015-2017. Gave up 7 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings pitched. 37.80 ERA.

So what is up with Bickford now? Any recent reports? Thought I read that he wasn't under any limitations heading into the season?

Wonderful site. There is a link to it at MLBTradeRumors.com (go to "MLB Depth Charts" which is found a ways down on the right toolbar). The go-to site when trying to figure out the number of options remaining with just about any player in any organization.

Stearns loves- Toolsy outfielders Versatile defensive infielders that can't hit Players not good enough to play for the Oakland A's

Villar (to play SS) and Braun to LA for Walker Buehler. Just kidding. Sorry, just cannot pass up any opportunity to do the "Braun to the Dodgers" stuff.

I've shook my head at the Mejia talk for months but am now thinking the Indians may part with him. Just saw too many reports this off-season questioning his ability to stay behind the plate. I think they had him playing 3B in the Fall League, and so far this season he's split time between C and LF. I don't believe any junk that they are seeking defensive versatility with him. If you are developing a catcher then that guy gets max innings behind the plate because experience is huge with that position. Still like Mejia's bat at any position but that offense is not nearly as attractive as a left fielder as it would be with a catcher. Note that I'm not saying the Indians would be looking to sell him cheap. They still would demand a premium return for him. I just think they might now be open to listening to top offers for him. They seem like an organization that places a big emphasis on defense when it comes to catchers. I remember their GM saying Lucroy would not be guaranteed a starting job in 2017 because they loved Gomes defense. And at the time Gomes looked like an expanding black hole offensively, OPS'ing .659 in 2015 and OPS'ing .527 in 2016. Fortunately for them, his bat bounced back the last couple of seasons. But it still shows how much emphasis they place on defense at that position, because Lucroy was still a plus defensively and combined with his offense was one of the best two-way catchers. So if they think Mejia is going to be below average behind the plate, will they keep him there? And if not, how does his bat play at other positions? If another team that still sees him as a catcher is willing to give up a package of players worth 70 million in surplus value, well there is a really good chance that Cleveland may not see him as having that type of value in their organization if they don't think he will be a catcher in their long-term plans.

I just worry the hitter's "regression to the mean" will coincide with the bullpen's "regression to the mean." ERA: Jeffress = 0.64, Hader = 1.17, Barnes = 1.17, Albers = 1.35, Jennings = 1.38, Williams = 1.93. These guys can all have plus-years but there is no way this level of performance is going to last throughout an entire season.

I would think that Vogt would need more than two days, but maybe he's done a good job of keeping his legs in playing shape. Never thought I would say this three weeks ago, but the Brewers could really use Vogt's bat right now. And this is a guy who has slashed .244/.297/.412/.710 over his last 835 plate appearances.