JosephC

I forgot all about how his results were leaked! Was that ever investigated? Yes. Not leaked by MLB. Was leaked by someone that Braun's legal team consulted when trying to find a loophole.

It's tiresome that Brewer fans keep referring to the concept that the sample collector screwed up when he did nothing of the sort. Dino Laurenzi worked for a company named Comprehensive Drug Testing. Comprehensive Drug Testing's protocol stated that sample collectors were to ship samples for next day arrival, and if they were not able to do it for legitimate reasons (such as nearby FedEx locations not open), that the samples would be retained by the collector until they could be next day shipped. The reason is simple, if sample integrity questions arise it's much more defensible for a sample collector to defend integrity of the samples because (1) he can verify that he had possession of the samples and (2) he can verify the storage conditions of the samples. That's much better than having the sample sitting in the back of some random truck driving around random locations for a couple days, not knowing what the temperature in the back of that truck is. Laurenzi correctly followed the protocol that was established by Comprehensive Drug Testing and was also a standard procedure in the industry. The problem arose because MLB's protocol did not state that, it simply said that samples needed to be shipped overnight immediately unless there was some type of extraordinary circumstance that prevented it. MLB admitted fault, when they signed the contract with Comprehensive Drug Testing they did not verify their own protocols against those of Comprehensive Drug Testing which was MLB's obligation and responsibility. Note that it took MLB and MLBPA about a day to amend the MLB protocol after this incident, because MLB's protocol basically did not follow industry standard and it was quickly acknowledged by both sides that it created a loop-hole that would likely easily be exploited by dopers in the future. Laurenzi correctly followed the procedures that were instituted by his employer and did nothing wrong. If anyone wants to point blame at the technicality that arose from the delayed shipping, then they should point blame at MLB for not verifying their protocol against Comprehensive Drug Testing's protocol.

LOL. Oh no not again.

Agreed on the money poorly spent. Last two seasons he had a 5.57 ERA, 5.30 FIP, 1.55 WHIP and a K/BB of 1.48. I'm not really sure what part of that equation indicates he should have been anything other than a non-roster invitee? Everybody was freaking out over the Jesse Chavez possibility, and rightfully so. But over the last couple of years Chavez had been much better than Gallardo. Even Matt Garza's numbers from 2016-2017 were better much better than Gallardo: 4.74 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 1.48 WHIP, 1.84 K/BB. Worst ERA, minimum 200 innings pitched, 2016-2017: 1. Ubaldo Jimenez = 6.13 2. Anibal Sanchez = 6.09 3. Tyler Duffey = 5.91 4. Derek Holland = 5.65 5. James Shields = 5.60 6. Jordan Zimmermann = 5.60 7. Yovani Gallardo = 5.57 8. Matt Cain = 5.52 9. Jered Weaver = 5.51 10. Mike Pelfrey = 5.50 Worst FIP, minimum 200 innings pitched, 2016-2017: 1. Jared Weaver = 6.10 2. James Shields = 5.94 3. Mike Pelfrey = 5.75 4. Derek Holland = 5.69 5. Ariel Miranda = 5.60 6. Hector Santiago = 5.50 7. Yovani Gallardo = 5.30 8. Chris Tillman = 5.18 9. Anibal Sanchez = 5.17 10. Matt Cain = 5.10

Not as an MLB'er, but I think former San Francisco OF-Jarrett Parker could be a good add. He was DFA'ed by San Francisco and then released. 29 years old, career .257/.335/.456/.791 in 382 plate appearances in the majors and .274/.368/.503/.871 in 948 plate appearances in AAA. It doesn't appear that there is a major league job for him right now as he is a low salary guy that cleared waivers. Probably would give a nice boost to the AAA club and really wouldn't be that bad of an insurance policy. Brewers look set in the outfield today but it only takes one trade followed by one injury to find that the team could have used one more player.

2018 Brewers Season Predictions Win-Loss Record: 77-85 All Star Game Representative(s): Christian Yelich Offensive Player of the Year: Christian Yelich Pitcher of the Year: Chase Anderson Most Surprising Player: Jeremy Jeffress Most Disappointing Player: Lorenzo Cain (due to injury, not performance)

If Yelich stays healthy throughout the year and doesn't start at least 154 games then it will be a major disappointment. The Brewers, as a small market team, cannot give up the resources they gave up for Yelich with the idea that they will sit him extra games and downgrade that number of plate appearances by inserting "lesser" players into the lineup.

I don't see him knocking Hernandez out of the second base spot. The Phillies are saying Kingery can play any of the infield and outfield spots. During his minor league career Kingery has over 2600 innings as a second baseman, 33 as a third baseman and 18 as a shortstop and no time in the outfield (although the Phillies were playing him there in the spring). I'd guess they start him off as a utility player. IMO third baseman Maikel Franco is probably the guy on the hot seat. He slugged 24 home runs last year but he's gone from a .280/.343/.497/.840 in 2015 to a .255/.306/.427/.733 in 2016 to a .230/.281/.409/.690 last year. Tough to stick in a lineup with a .281 OBP. If he doesn't rebound then it's pretty likely Kingery see the bulk of time at third base.

So what's the projection now? Not what you'd want to see, but what it will actually be? Rotation : Chase Anderson, Jhoulys Chacin, Brent Suter, Zach Davies Bullpen : Corey Knebel, Josh Hader, Matt Albers, Jeremy Jeffress, Jacob Barnes, Oliver Drake, J.J. Hoover, Brandon Woodruff Catcher : Manny Pina, Jett Bandy Infield : Eric Thames, Jonathan Villar, Orlando Arcia, Travis Shaw, Erik Sogard, Hernan Perez, Jesus Aguilar Outfield : Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun

Not so sure I'd be interested in Wheeler. Missed two seasons and came back with a 5.21 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 5.03 FIP. What is more concerning is that, after the Jason Vargas injury, it appeared there was no way Wheeler could pitch himself out of the Met's rotation. But now it appears he did exactly that. https://www.mlb.com/mets/news/mets-zack-wheelers-struggles-continue/c-269444434 His velocity was back last season, but I have no idea where it was during the spring. Despite all that negative stuff, I doubt the Mets would let him go for cheap because he has two options left. The Mets will probably be perfectly content to ship him to AAA and see if he can figure it out there. I highly doubt that they would be interested in Broxton because they already have Cespedes, Bruce, Lagares, Conforto and Nimmo in the outfield.

I think it's even more likely that Stearns just ran out of money. Adding 15 million for Cobb likely puts them over 105 million (depending on when deferred payments need to be funded), limits trade deadline moves and causes problems with arbitration raises down the road. The highest the Brewers opening day payroll has ever been was 104 million in 2015. The difference between then and now is the 2015 team had well over 30 million in payroll coming off the books at the end of the season (Aramis Ramirez, Kyle Lohse, Gerardo Parra) so the team didn't have to worry about payroll stress in 2016.

Just a bit flabbergasted that Lynn could only pull in a 1 year, 12 million dollar deal and Cobb gets 60 million. A bit of a head-scratcher. Hard to believe the Orioles had this offer on the table for awhile and Cobb was holding out for more since most of the early projections put Cobb in the range of anywhere from 48 to 56 million. And if the Orioles did significantly bump the offer, then what took them so long? If they were going to give him every bit of perceived market value, then why not do it a month ago where they can have him right at the start of spring training and can completely monitor his workload? I don't think the Orioles have enough to contend for the division title, but they could be interesting if they get some bounce-back performances. The days of Chris Davis being a .900+ OPS guy are probably over, but maybe he can repeat his 2016 performance (.221/.332/.459/.791, 38 HRs). One has to take the bad with the good concerning Mark Trumbo, he might only hit 20 home runs but it wouldn't be all that surprising to see him hit 35. Machado, Schoop and Adam Jones (when factoring in his defense) are all good players. I'm assuming Chance Sisco will be their starting catcher at the beginning of the year or will have the starting job shortly after, with him and LF-Mancini they have two pretty talented young players in there. If Davis and Trumbo have good seasons then the offense should be really good. Kevin Gausman was a 3.91 FIP pitcher from 2014-2016, if he bounces back and Bundy makes another jump, the rotation lacks a true ace but the group of Gausman, Bundy and Cobb could be pretty solid. Despite that ERA of 3.40 last year, I'm not an Andrew Cashner fan but no question he could get it done as a back end of the rotation piece. The loss of Zach Britton was pretty huge. I really like Brach, Givens and O'Day just keeps chugging along. The rest of their bullpen is really questionable. 6 weeks ago I would have said they should be going into full rebuild mode with the upcoming loss of Machado, but now have to reconsider that after looking at what they have put together. There is a reasonable chance that this team could be pretty good.

I figured Holland would come at a bargain bin type price tag at this point but have to question that now since Cobb just beat many of the early off-season projections on his deal. If Holland is in the one year, 4-5 million range then the Brewers should definitely go for it. But after yesterday, maybe Holland can still pull in a 2 year, 20 million dollar deal which would be way too rich for me. This is a market where Anthony Swarzak got 2 years, 14 million and I think everyone would pretty much agree that Holland should be above that number. Average deal for Brandon Morrow, Tommy Hunter, Juan Nicasio was 2 years, 18.67 million. But maybe Holland will have to settle for less and fall into the Lance Lynn group of players who really seemed to get shorted this off-season, and if that's the case the Brewers should be interested.

Anybody have a current breakdown of expected lefty/righty starter breakdowns? Projecting the Brewers to face lefty starters over 40% of the time seems high. http://www.vocativ.com/315557/left-handed-pitchers-disappearing/index.html

1. Keston Hiura 2. Brandon Woodruff 3. Corbin Burnes 4. Brett Phillips 5. Luis Ortiz 6. Corey Ray 7. Lucas Erceg 8. Trent Grisham 9. Tristen Lutz 10. Mauricio Dubon 11. Freddy Peralta 12. Cody Ponce 13. Taylor Williams 14. KJ Harrison 15. Jake Gatewood 16. Adrian Houser 17. Josh Pennington 18. Marcos Diplan 19. Phil Bickford 20. Troy Stokes Jr. 21. Zack Brown 22. Payton Henry 23. Mario Feliciano 24. Jean Carmona 25. Trey Supak ------------- 26. Carlos Herrera 27. Kodi Medeiros 28. Caden Lemons 29. Jacob Nottingham 30. Jorge Lopez

Sounds like Jharel Cotton is headed for Tommy John surgery. Tough break for him.

I thought he would be going to the Rangers but apparently within the last 24 hours, Jon Daniels stated that the Rangers are not adding a closer from outside the organization. MLBTradeRumors says the Braves and Diamondbacks may be interested. I think the Diamondbacks make the most sense. Archie Bradley, Brad Boxberger and Japanese newcomer Yoshihisa Hirano are all in competition for that spot but I think the addition of Holland would really solidify the back end of that bullpen and along with that rotation they would have a really attractive pitching staff. But I do think the Brewers should be in on this if the price stays in the 4 million range, which at this point I would guess it is. Loss of the draft pick wouldn't bother me. I like Knebel but he could always regress and it would be nice to have Holland as an insurance policy. The front of the bullpen IMO doesn't look that great (I currently think J.J. Hoover makes the roster and from 2014-2017 his MLB FIP is a horrible 5.23, which is why I don't want to see him make the roster). Adding Holland to the back end bumps all the other relievers other than Knebel down a spot and makes the bullpen better top to bottom. Right now Hader might be locked into the eighth inning, adding Holland gives Counsell a bit more flexibility in how he handles the late innings. And by the trade deadline, most teams are looking to add a reliever. I think it's likely the Brewers would be one of those teams this year. Add Holland now might fill that hole. Spend 4-5 million now and lose a fourth round pick for six months of work, or trade a decent prospect and have to pick up a contract for two months of work later on. And even though he faded late last year, when on the mound Holland has an excellent track record. 3.72 FIP in 2017 was actually a pretty horrible number for him. Looking at his numbers from 2012-2017: 2.50 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 3.25 K/BB. I would agree that the seasons he had in 2013 and 2014 will not happen again. But the projection services at Fangraphs have him as having a 3.65 ERA and 3.57 FIP (on average) for 2018, and if I were to bet whether he'd be better or worse, I'd guess he'll be a bit better than that. Well worth a 4 million dollar investment and a 4th round pick. If it turns out the Diamondbacks aren't interested, I really can't see a good reason why the Brewers should be sitting this one out.

So what's the projection for the opening day roster? Starting Rotation = Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Jhoulys Chacin, Brandon Woodruff, Wade Miley Bullpen = Corey Knebel, Josh Hader, Matt Albers, Boone Logan, Jeremy Jeffress, Jacob Barnes, J.J. Hoover, Brent Suter Catcher = Manny Pina, Jett Bandy (Vogt to the DL) Infield = Eric Thames, Jonathan Villar, Erik Sogard, Orlando Arcia, Travis Shaw, Hernan Perez Outfield = Ryan Braun, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Domingo Santana

I was a huge fan of Swihart when he was drafted and initially coming up in the minors. But to this point he has been a .270/.330/.383/.713 hitter in the majors and a .234/.295/.320/.615 hitter in AAA. Not really anything impressive on the stat sheet since the 2014 season. A flat out embarrassing .190/.246/.292/.539 in 200+ AAA plate appearances last year. I don't know what went on with his defensive progression? I thought the Red Sox started him off as a catcher and then moved him because the defense wasn't very good. Then he was playing left field and I thought some first and third base. Now the Red Sox have him back at catcher. Safe to assume that after the last two seasons they figure his bat just plays too far down as a LF/1B? Not sure if that's the case or not but it's the impression I get when looking at his overall resume. He turns 26 in a couple of weeks and plenty of late bloomers have really come on and become superstars after that age, but Swihart has done nothing in the last couple of seasons to make me think he'd be one of them.

My initial ask would be for about 20 million in prospect surplus value which is about equivlent to a back end top 100 pitcher, but I wouldn't expect to get that in return. But to move him I'd need about 6 to 7 million dollars in prospect surplus value back, which would be equivalent to "one role player prospect plus one fringe prospect" or "three fringe prospects." Would rather just hold onto him as a fifth outfielder or an insurance policy I could stash in the minors for at least one more season if that final asking price isn't met. He's near minimum salary and has an option year left so I don't see why there would be any urgency to move him.

I'm more disappointed that Stearns didn't replace Sogard with Walker.

I love this deal for Philadelphia. Based on historical salary data, I just don't think this is a place the Brewers could go. Cot's Baseball Contracts have the Brewer's opening day payroll maxing out at 104 million in 2015. Considering they are at about 90 million right now, adding another 25 million (ignoring the 30/25/20 structure of the final deal and just using a 25 million annual average value) would have put the Brewers payroll at 115 million, 10 million higher than it's ever been on opening day. One would have to assume that Attanasio would have been willing to go that high, which I think is pretty doubtful. And as has been pointed out by many, it really limits what they could do for the rest of the season. And since they don't have any big contracts coming off the books until after the 2020 season, and will be facing what could be some pretty significant arbitration raises, I'd argue that a move like this would have really handcuffed them for the next three seasons. On the other hand, we have Philadelphia. From 2011-2015 they had an average opening day payroll of just under 165 million, topping out at 177 million in 2014. After adding Arrieta's 30 million dollar figure for 2018, the Philadelphia opening day payroll is still only estimated to be about 93 million dollars, not even 60% of what an average was from 2011-2015. And considering this deal only runs for 3 seasons, it's also unlikely that it handcuffs them in the future. Looking at the 2019 payroll situation, they should have easily have enough room to go after two of the top free agents next off-season and should be very competitive at the negotiating table. As far as Arrieta's performance, he could continue to decline but I think it's more likely that his performance levels off and he maintains his 2017 performance over the next couple of seasons. It was unlikely the .260 BABIP and 6% HR/FB ratios were going to continue for him, last year those numbers were still below league average but were closer and are clearly more sustainable (.279 BABIP, 14.0% HR/FB). The FIP was 4.16, but the ERA was 3.53 and he has a history of the ERA outperforming the FIP (3rd consecutive year). The four projection services at Fangraphs averages out to a 3.82 ERA in 2018. I think that's about what his average will be over the next three seasons, and the Phillies will get about 550 innings out of him and an ERA right around 3.80. That's not worth a 75 million dollar investment for the team in MLB's smallest market, but for a team that can run a 175 million dollar payroll and only had about 63 million dollars in payroll commitments prior to the deal (literally less than 40% of what they've spent in the past), this Arrieta contract is well worth it for them.

Despite looking over and over and trying to find fits for Braun and coming up empty, I still wonder if Stearns did have a deal lined up for Braun that fell apart after the Yelich and Cain deals were made. Doing both of those moves just don't make any sense with Braun on the roster. I guess we'll see how Yelich's arm plays in right field, because even though Braun probably should be on the bench with the current roster composition, I think it will end up being Braun-Cain-Yelich outfield.

Lifetime .305 OBP and coming off a season where his OBP was .314 (which is actually the second best season OBP of his career). Agree that 6.5 million guaranteed is ridiculously low for him but on the flip side I think 80+ million projections for him at the start of the off-season were equally ridiculous.

McKenzie & Bieber are to Cleveland like Burnes & Woodruff for MKE. Asking for either guy goes nowhere. Targeting Hillman or Aiken makes sense, both are far down the pecking order. The bigger misconception is thinking there is a huge OF need in CLE. Brantley is on course to start season on DL but looks to be back mid April. He might surprise & make opening day but being cautious/ conservative says mid-April. Yes Guyer is still having his wrist issue (& is likely headed to the DL too), but that was why Chernoff brought in Upton, Raji Davis & others to spring training Greg Allen is another possible option to fill the short-term need. He is slated for AAA (a level he has skipped) so he gets regualr playing time. If there is regular playing time in CLE I could see him on the opening day roster but he is most likely headed to AAA. Yandy Diaz is another option. He has been focusing on 3B this spring but he has played corner OF for spells each of the last 2 years. I do not see the Tribe making a rash/ short-sighted move. If a trade makes sense for them, they could do it. Otherwise they can sit and wait Unlike MKE which has to deal with the Cubs & Cardinals in its division, the Tribe is the best roster 1 to 40 in AL Central. They can absorb a slow start and take a long view when determining how to deal with injuries or gaps. Where a horrid start (March/ April, say 7-23) might bury MKE in the NL Central, the same start would not bury the Tribe in the AL Central. I think Bieber could be had in the right deal because they are currently six deep in the rotation if Salazar is healthy, Ryan Merritt would be #7, Julian Merriweather is probably one step ahead of Bieber although I strongly prefer Bieber, and Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale are one step behind Bieber. As attractive as Bieber is, I haven't seen him on any top 100 prospect lists and would guess he wouldn't stack in the top 150 on most prospect lists (if they went that deep). Can't really see him as being a piece that would be off the board considering the Indian's organizational depth in this area. All that said, the more I thought about it today, I totally agree that Bieber is unlikely in a Broxton deal. Brewers likely have to count out the players on organizational top 10 lists if looking to deal Broxton. Future projections just don't have that much value on Broxton, and if those number-crunchers see it that way it's likely that most MLB clubs would view him the same way. I guess we'll agree to disagree about the Indian's outfield situation. For what should be one of the prime contenders in the AL, I just see them as woefully short in this area. Melvin Upton and Rajai Davis are terrible (both non-roster invitees for a reason) and both have stunk this spring (unless they did something today). Greg Allen is interesting though, he might not have any pop in his bat but he brings many other assets and would be someone I'd be content to go into the season with if I were Cleveland. Kind of like that combination of speed and defense, if he can get on base at a good enough clip then he could be a better performer than Broxton.