JosephC

I still really like Cleveland as a trade partner for an outfielder. Right now their outfield is probably Chisenhall, Brantley, Zimmer, Guyer and Naquin. Chisenhall and Brantley have injury concerns, Zimmer is still largely unproven and Guyer is aging and his plate performance really fell off last year. As far as I know, and maybe this has changed, but the talk was Brantley would start the year on the DL. I'd start by asking for Yu-Cheng Chang and Shane Bieber knowing that would get shot down. Probably would settle for a package of Shane Bieber and Elijah Morgan. Neither are high upside arms but both are extremely interesting due to their "known outcome" numbers. Really hard to project what Broxton is worth. He was about a 0.5 WAR player last year and the projections at Fangraphs have him as being anywhere from a 1.2 WAR player to a 0.0 WAR player in 2018 (0.4 WAR average). If Broxton is viewed as a 0.5 WAR player, then he has very minimal trade value which is probably why teams are asking about him...thinking they may be able to land him for near nothing. I'd assess a package of Beiber and Morgan as having 13.74 million dollars of prospect surplus value. That may be more than what Cleveland would be willing to give up, but that's what I'd be hoping to get. Another question is, would the Indian's have enough "fringe" pieces that would be attractive enough for Stearns to swing another Adam Lind type deal? Elijah Morgan is not a top prospect but he's interesting due to those known outcome numbers. Outfielder Mitch Longo is unattractive because he is old for the leagues he's been playing in, but he still slashed .376/.448/.541/.990 last year. 12 months ago, LHP-Juan Hillman was one of the hotter prospect names out there, then had a terrible 2017 and now is completely off the prospect lists but he's still very talented and very interesting and could very well rank as one of the best prospect "buy low" opportunities. I'm not a fan of Brady Aiken at all, but talk about taking a chance on a "fallen angel" prospect as one of three returning pieces of a deal...not crazy to see a GM roll the dice on something like that. Again, I'd be pushing hard for someone like Bieber but it wouldn't be crazy to see a scenario where the Indians could cobble together three "fringe" pieces and get Stearns to pull the trigger.

This will make a real mess of the scorebook.

Looking at the payroll tracker at Cot's, they have the following for 2018: A's = 58.1 million (down from an average of 84.1 million from 2015-2017) Marlins = 89.8 million (up from an average of 86.2 million from 2015-2017) Pirates = 85.5 million (down from an average of 95.3 million from 2015-2017) Rays = 77.0 million (up from an average of 70.9 million from 2015-2017) Interesting they picked four teams and two of the four teams have a projected 2018 payroll that will be higher than the team's average payroll over the three previous seasons. They should have filed a grievance against Milwaukee in 2016 as the Brewers had a 63.9 million dollar payroll that season after having run an average payroll of 98.9 million from 2013-2015. Math shows that cut was worse than any of the four teams just named. But obviously this comes now only because players are upset that Arrieta, Lynn, Cobb and Moustakas are still unemployed. But instead of going after the big dog teams that can afford these 80+ million dollar contracts (or 200 million in Arrieta's case), they instead will go after the A's because apparently Oakland was such a likely candidate for Arrieta and his 200 million dollar demand.

OK, I'm willing to play the Pirates. How about throwing 4-6 names out there as the "low level prospect" you'd be willing to include.

This is obviously the future for MLB and what it will evolve into. People like watching hitters hit so now the DH is there half the time so people don't have to watch pitchers hit. But who enjoys watching Alcides Escobar hit? Who enjoyed watching Yuni Betancourt play shortstop? Who enjoyed watching Johnny Estrada run the bases? And how stupid is it, that if a player is substituted when ahead because he is a defensive liability, that the player cannot be reinserted into the ballgame later if offense becomes necessary? After all, in all the other major sports a player can come back in if removed from the game for an injury check, rest or whatever the reason may be. The value to the fans is so much greater if they can see 9 at-bats from Yelich instead of 3 at-bats by Yelich, 3 at-bats by Arcia and 3 at-bats by Pina. And if you are an owner paying Bryce Harper 40 million per season, isn't it a much better investment to not have him limited to something like 680 plate appearances but possibly get him over 1400 plate appearances per season! Simple way to make all of this happen would be for managers to be able to wipe the slate clean every half inning and reset the lineups. If a player is substituted for in that half inning then he is out of the game for the rest of that half inning only. Purists will say it ruins the strategy of the game but instead it would make it much more fascinating. The manager wouldn't run the same 1-4 hitters out there every inning, it would likely change frequently based on lefty/righty pitcher matchups or the way certain hitters have performed against certain pitchers in the past. And the TV folks should love it, premier hitters up every inning should keep viewers interested from pitch #1 to the last pitch of the ballgame. Just think. Only having to watch a great defensive shortstop that can't hit only get about 50 plate appearances a year instead of 450. Never having to watch slow running catchers run the bases. Never having to watch a great offensive player perform like a complete hack in the outfield. And the viewers wouldn't have to be limited to watching that lefty specialist only get one out per game. If he's used in the seventh inning, now he can come back in the eighth inning and be used again.

OK, I'm willing to play the Pirates. How about throwing 4-6 names out there as the "low level prospect" you'd be willing to include.

Only thing that bugs me about the new rule is that broadcasters will likely go on and on about it and we'll get such gems as "they've already used two visits in the first three innings, which could become a big factor later in the game" and nonsense like that. Hopefully they won't throw another graphic on the TV screen so fans can monitor mound visits because they will be such a key strategy element of the game .

If someone were to argue that Souza and Santana represent an "apples to oranges" comparison, that's not something that I would argue because Santana is younger, has one more year of cheap control and Souza's 2017 does look like it could have been an outlier. That being said, Souza was a 3.95 WAR player last year and it looks like projections put him at a 1.9 WAR player this coming season. Santana was a 3.15 WAR player last year and projections put him at about 1.8 WAR next year. Can't say I was blown away by the return(*) for Souza and if the offers for Santana are only slightly higher then I think it's a complete no-brainer decision to keep him. (*) = assuming the players to be named later are fringe prospects And another pathetic move by the Rays IMO. Souza is only scheduled to make 3.55 million this year. Have to believe Colome is on the market and can be had for a pretty reasonable price. Still would think they would demand a premium for Archer.

I've been saying this for a while. The Brewers will be looking at $20-25M+ increase in payroll in 2019. In addition to arby cases, there are raises for Yelich, Cain, Anderson, Jeffress and Thames. Not huge raises - but a million or two here and there adds up. Couple that with the fact that will won't have a lot of money coming off the books. As of now, Sogard and Gallardo are the only free agents after the season. We can, of course, non-tender some arby guys - but that only saves so much. And you still have to fill those rosters spots. It's gonna cost something. It's why I've been skeptical of an Arrieta signing. I'm guessing they can squeeze him into their salary structure this year - but I just don't know how high the Crew is willing to push the payroll in 2019 and beyond. I think the same thing even with a 15+ million dollar a year signing which may eliminate Cobb and Lynn in addition to Arrieta. 2020 salary guess: Braun = 16 Cain = 16 Yelich = 12.5 Thames = 1 (assume buyout) Anderson = 8.5 Nelson = 7.1 (arbitration guess) Knebel = 6.9 (arbitration guess) Davies = 4.9 (arbitration guess) Shaw = 5.4 (arbitration guess) Pina = 3.6 (arbitration guess) Arcia = 2.8 (arbitration guess) Barnes = 2.1 (arbitration guess) 13 players at 600k each Total = 94.6 million Add in a 15 million dollar pitcher and that puts it at about 110 million which is higher than they have ever run in the past. And note that these are 2020 estimates, so 1 more big contract not only limits their spending for next year but in 2019 and 2020 as well. And note the above list does not include these players who are currently still controlled by the Brewers through the 2020 season: Villar = 4.1 million (arbitration guess) Perez = 3.2 million (arbitration guess) Jeffress = 4.3 million (arbitration guess) Santana = 5.4 million (arbitration guess) Broxton = 2.2 million (arbitration guess) Add any of those guys in, and it's that much less payroll space to deal with. IMO all this is not an issue if Attanasio is willing to push the payroll cap to 125-130 million over the next few seasons, but I'll believe it when I see it. If the plan is for the payroll to stay in the 105-110 million range, I really dislike the Yelich/Cain moves that much more. IMO most of the offensive problems from last year were tied to OBP problems at 2B and CF, and they had enough minor league depth to try and fill the centerfield spot from within and it's looking like Neil Walker might have been a cheap stop-gap for the couple seasons until Hiura is ready. No idea why the team decided to throw so many resources into outfielders? Would have been better off with adding more pitching IMO.

Burnes had a 1.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 6.4 H/9, 2.2 BB/9, 8.6 K/9 in 145 2/3 innings last year. Duplantier had a 1.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 6.0 H/9, 2.8 BB/9, 10.9 K/9 in 136 innings last year. They are basically the same age (3 months apart) and Duplantier (A/A+) was pitching 1 level behind Burnes (A+/AA). Scouting reports I've read seem to indicate that Duplantier's stuff is more "electric" than Burnes. Duplantier did miss one season at Rice because of a shoulder injury (didn't have surgery) and I'm guessing that plays into the fact that he's probably considered by most to be a 75-100 pitcher on the top 100 prospect list. Note that Baseball America has Duplantier at #73 and Burnes at #74 on their top 100 list. And as far as Pavin Smith, .400+ OBP bats play. And just like in college, Smith ended up with a .401 OBP and a 27 walk/24 strikeout performance in A ball last year. I'd definitely be listening if Arizona offered up both of these players for Santana.

Arizona would love nothing more than to be able to dump Tomas' contract. 46 million is a huge number considering Tomas is a worthless player.

I don't think anybody has problems with Martinez's bat. But the defensive aspect is more than just a knock. Martinez has been a -22, -5 DRS and -21.5, -14.8 UZR/150 for his defense over the last two seasons. He's also missed a ton of games except for 2015 when he appeared in 158. Over the last two years he's appeared in 120 and 119 games. He already has the look of a DH and I'd suspect that scared many teams off of him. I don't think any AL team would have a problem paying a premium price for a quality DH for a season or two. But I don't think many teams would be interested in throwing a 150 dollar committment to a guy who has "future DH" written all over him.

Cron isn't very good and after another arbitration raise the Rays could very well be looking to move on from him. DH is wide open now that Dickerson is gone. Last I heard the Rays were committed to Bauers in the outfield and there have been at least one report that seems to favor him as an outfielder. https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/13/15632974/pressure-on-rays-prospect-jake-bauers

If I were Stearns I'd be giving the Rays a call about Colome today. Was thinking that Colome would be a definite hold for the Rays but who knows after the events of this weekend? Colome will make 5.3 million dollars in his first year of arbitration and that price tag only goes up the next couple of years. Only has 2 seasons in the bullpen and when checking out the peripherals he was better in 2016 than he was in 2017. Average WAR between Baseball Reference in Fangraphs was 1.7 in 2016 and 0.95 in 2017. So he's been about a 1.3 WAR player as a reliever so far and the projection services has put him at what I think is a pretty ridiculous 0.7 WAR in 2018. The Rays might be looking to move him now for fear that there may be further regression. I'd project him at 1.2 WAR over the next three seasons, which would put his value at something like 35 million but with that really high arbitration figure in year one he's likely to earn about 21.4 million over those seasons so his surplus value is probably in the area of 13.6 million. I'd propose something like: Milwaukee gets: RHP-Alex Colome Rays get: OF-Keon Broxton 1B-Jake Gatewood If the Rays had no interst in Broxton then I would go: Brewers get: RHP-Alex Colome Rays get: RHP-Marcos Diplan 1B-Jake Gatewood RHP-Zack Brown

No, I think people are looking at the Cubs rotation that starts with Darvish, Quintana, Hendricks and Lester, and then looks at the Brewer's likely #1 coming out of spring training and realize that the Brewer's best starter would probably be the #5 if he was pitching for the Cubs. Therefore, any warm body with over 200 MLB innings of total experience will look attractive in one way or another (unless you are Wade Miley). People should look at the bright side, at least the team has two really good left fielders or three really good first baseman depending on where the old, overpaid guy ends up.

Biggest question is why the Rays were so quick to open up a roster spot for C.J. Cron. Over the last three years Cron is a .263/.311/.448/.759 hitter which is way below the average first baseman slash line in 2017 (.265/.346/.487/.832). If anything, Cron is another questionable OBP hitter that doesn't slug nearly as well as Dickerson (3 year splits: Cron = .448, Dickerson = .489). Don't really buy their explanation that they needed Cron's right-handed bat to balance out the lineup. Souza bats right-handed, Duffy (likely third baseman) bats right-handed, second base job likely goes to Daniel Robertson and he bats right-handed, Heachvarria bats right-handed, Ramos bats right-handed, they traded for Christian Arroyo and he bats right-handed...even prior to Cron it appears that it was almost a guarantee that 5 of their 9 lineup spots were going to be occupied by right-handed bats. And to top it all off, Cron hits righties better than he hits lefties (over the last three years he's .270/.319/.460/.779 against righties but only .245/.287/.418.705 against lefties). And despite the obvious attempt to save money, the Rays will end up eating about roughly 1 million dollars (1/6 of Dickerson's salary) if they end up releasing him after the 10 day window.

Odorizzi will likely make about 14.5 million and I'd say the prospect the Rays got back has a surplus value of about 5.5 million, so in surplus value the Twins have sunk about 20 million into this investment. Odorizzi only has to average 1.05 WAR over the next two years to make this an even trade from the Twin's perspective. Every number screams stay away from Odorizzi, but at a price like this he's well worth taking a chance on. Needless to say, a terrible, terrible night for fans of the Rays. This move, combined with the Dickerson move, just screams that ownership looked at the 2018 numbers and gave the order to cut 10 million in payroll. That's the only logical explanation that I can see for what happened. Not to mentioned they filled their first base hole with a 2.3 million dollar veteran, which is a price tag that is about as low as one can go for a veteran with 3+ years of experience. Just terrible. MLB has no business having two franchises in the state of Florida. I doubt if the Rays would move Archer for cheap, but Alex Colome is sitting there with a 5+ million dollar price tag so if I were Stearns I'd be giving them a call today and asking about him.

Agent information is from the player pages on Baseball Reference. I apologize for any errors, I just went with what they have as I don't have the time to verify that their information is 100% correct. Just did a five minute search on who Cain's current representation is and I couldn't find the answer. Found several articles regarding Cain not working with Kusnick anymore. But other sites like Spotrac still lists Kusnick as his agent. Also updated the post changing Cain's representation to "?"

Assuming Hosmer stays with KC, that would put Wil Myers back at first base for San Diego and then I think they become an interesting candidate to make a Domingo Santana trade. But this only works if Hosmer is not a Padre. Padres get: OF-Domingo Santana Brewers get: LHP-Adrian Morejon LHP-Joey Lucchesi 1B-Josh Naylor Stearns could obviously make a play for Brad Hand as one of the pieces but I don't think the Padres are interesting in moving him now. It's also questionable if Stearns would want to give full value for Hand with two lefties already in the bullpen.

Representation of players that have signed. Agent information from baseball-reference.com

A quick look at the representation for those who haven't signed.

IMO he's the guy who shouldn't get anything close as to what the expectation was entering the off-season. 38 home runs last year but only averaged 16 home runs per season from 2012-2015 (skipped 2016 because he only played in 27 games). Has the reputation of a great third baseman but over the course of his career is only a +7 DRS (so about +1 DRS per season) and +4.5 UZR/150...and was actually on the negative side in both during 2017. He's averaged 120 games played over the last five years. Granted, that number is skewed because he only played 27 games in 2017, but even completely throwing out that season, he's playing in 142 games and missing 20 games per season. And by far the biggest problem, he just makes too many outs. Has played in parts of 7 seasons and only one time has been above .314 OBP. Lifetime .305 OBP performer. When I look at him and think what he does great....he hits home runs....well at least he did in 2017. Outside of that there isn't really all that much to get excited about.

I think the only real reasonable deal I've heard including Santana and an established MLB pitcher was the Santana/Danny Salazar swap. But now that one is dead in the water with the reports of Salazar's shoulder. If the Brewers want to trade Santana, I think the best return for them would likely be prospects and not an established MLB'er. But at this point I'd prefer keeping Domingo and going with Yelich/Cain/Santana in the outfield. Really don't like having that much money tied up in Braun and potentially having him on the bench the majority of the time considering he can still hit, but I think that's what the roster dictates. Might as well throw in my crybaby statement about not really liking Stearns addition of both Yelich and Cain while IMO the only real outfield problem was centerfield OBP.

Does this mean they are out of the running for Jesse Chavez?

If four years, 88 million is the best offer for Arrieta, I'd guess that he will be a free agent well into the season. Don't see Boras settling for that. Always a chance that Arrieta overrules Boras and accepts a smaller deal, but Boras will fight him tooth and nail over it.