JosephC

I'd say a fair price for Teheran would be something like Luis Ortiz, Trent Grisham and Mauricio Dubon.

Julio Teheran is so up and down there is just no way he carries top value. If the Braves asked Brinson for Teheran straight up then I would be the guy hanging up the phone. Over the last three years Teheran has had ERA's of 4.04, 3.21, 4.49 and FIP's of 4.40, 3.69, 4.95. Depth Charts and Steamer have projected him as a 4.67 ERA and 1.5 WAR player in 2018. Last year his average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs was 1.35, average over the last two years is 2.68 and average over the last three years is just 2.22. He's under control over the next three years (31 million if the option year is picked up) and if one assumes the best WAR (2.68 - 2 year split) it makes his value 78.926 million. 78.926-31=47.926 million in surplus value. And that's taking the best case scenario and completely ignoring the 1.5 WAR projection for 2018 which is probably how a pretty good percentage of MLB teams would view him, especially since his WAR was only 1.35 last year. Teheran's reputation is way better than his performance. I could see Stearns making a run at Teheran because he'd be under team control for three years, annual salaries would not break the bank and there is some talent there. But as nate82 suggested, if the Braves don't want to trade him and start asking for crazy packages that include Brinson, then it's a very easy pass for Stearns because the value just isn't there. Again, absolute max surplus value at just under 48 million...I honestly think his real value when including future projections really should be right around the 40 million range.

I don't think there was anyway Roenicke could have pitched Wang more than he did. 10.90 ERA, 2.19 WHIP, 35 ERA+, 7.69 FIP. Couldn't even really be used as a lefty specialist because lefties slashed a pretty ridiculous .333/.379/.630/1.009 off of him. The guy may or may not have had a future but in 2014 he shouldn't have been within 10 miles of a major league clubhouse. I will say though that I would have liked to have seen him earlier and more often last year. But when it was all said and done, when he did get his chance he couldn't get anybody out.

I was of the understanding that the Brewer/Nashville split was pretty ugly. Wasn't Nashville really unhappy with the Brewers because they had traded so many prospects and frankly left Nashville with a really bad product for a couple seasons? And wasn't the Brewers really unhappy with Nashville because their owner(s) gave the impression they'd continue to work together only to have them sign up with Oakland and pretty much leave the Brewers hanging (and forcing them to Colorado Springs because it was the only option left). Not sure if the ownership situation in Nashville is still the same? If it is I'd be a bit surprised if the two sides were willing to work together again so soon after the last breakup because from the stuff I read there seemed to be bad blood on both sides.

Agree with small market teams needing to occasionally make outside of the box moves. But there are many, many ways to obtain prospects and Rule 5'ing rookie ball players just seems like the most ineffective way to do so. Not fair to Ron Roenicke who has to manage with a 24 man roster. Not fair to a bunch of relief pitchers who have to pick up the innings slack because a rookie ball pitcher with a 10+ ERA can only finish games in blowout losses. Not fair to the fans who are playing MLB prices to watch what should be 25 at-least-MLB-ready players, not Beloit ready players. This is a route I hope the Brewers never go down again.

Wentz and Grisham probably fall in the same category value wise. Both have slipped out of the organizational top 10 listings at Baseball America, but both still probably carry "top 10 organizational" value. That said, Soroka is very likely a #26-#50 pitcher when the updated top 100 lists are released. If in that category, his prospect surplus value would be 34.12 million. I think that's a bit light as a return for Santana.

I sure hope the Brewers never try that "rookie ball player Rule 5'ed" strategy again.

Yelich would be a perfect fit for the Brewer lineup but I strongly question if he's really worth the three (or more) good prospects it would likely take to land him. The metrics say he's not a great centerfielder. DRS from 2015-2017 as a centerfielder are -5, 0, -6 and UZR/150 over that timeframe are -17.4, -8.6. -0.6. Last year he played centerfield but before that was primarily a left fielder where the defensive metrics were much, much better (prior to 2017 he had 3500+ innings as a left fielder and only about 650 as a centerfielder). Three year splits have him as a .293/.371/.447/.818 hitter. Love how that OBP would play in the Brewer lineup but the lack of true mashing ability for a guy who might be best in left field is a bit of a concern. I would definitely like to see Yelich in a Brewer uniform, but at the same time would have little interest in trading for him because of the amount of the investment that would be required.

Key sentence in Passan's article is the first sentence in paragraph #4. "...jobless with pitchers and catchers reporting in less than a month." I honestly don't see how anyone could throw out the word "collusion" when the off-season hasn't come close to playing out yet. Completely ridiculous. Come the end of Februrary, if Darvish has signed for 90 million, Arrieta has signed for 75 million, Lynn has signed for 45 million and Cobb has signed for 40 million...that would be the time to write the collusion article. My take on the free agent market (on December 29th) is summed up in post #31 on this page: viewtopic.php?f=66&t=36121&start=20 And my thoughts haven't changed. I still think Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb will get paid much more than what people were expecting back in November, and if Darvish misses the mark it won't be by very much.

Does anybody know the story behind Reed wanting to play for a Midwest team?? From his birthplace to high school to college it appears he was born and raised in California.

Maybe it's time to start a thread about all the MLB players the Brewers are not interested in?! Harrison makes 10+ million each of the next three years (two options). Neil Walker will probably end up with a 2 year deal that will be under 10 million per season. Walker is 32 years old and over the last three seasons has slashed .272/.344/.446/.790. Josh Harrison is 30 years old and over the last three seasons has slashed .280/.326/.404/.730. Is there that much concern over Walker's age and a possible decline? Looks like Walker is a better offensive player, would be cheaper and the Brewers wouldn't have to give up prospects for him. I'll put this one down as another one in the growing column of moves that really wouldn't make any sense.

Exactly. I do think it's far-fetched that the Brewers would be willing to drop another 40+ million in payroll because it would put them 6-7 million higher than they have ever been before and they have arbitration raises coming in the near future (although trading Shaw would help that situation). But the thing that puts Bowden's theory at borderline crazy is the addition of Moustakas. This lineup suffered badly last year because they had too many bats in the lineup that made too many outs, and Moustakas has a long history now of making too many outs.

Great add for the Twins. Have to wonder if they've grown tired of waiting on Darvish and just decided to spend their money elsewhere.

I'll stick with my 5 year, 140 million guess and don't see the Brewers being a player at those numbers.

I was thinking Bruce would be 3 years in the 42-45 million dollar area. So just slightly below what I was expecting. Props to MLBTradeRumors for nailing this one right on the head. Bruce had a solid 2017 but from 2014-2016 he slashed .231/.295/.440/.735. He was on the plus side in DRS and UZR/150 last year, but he sure looks like a declining defensive player when one watches him play. The guy can still hit the long ball which is a big deal, but outside of that there just that much exciting about him anymore.

Exactly. If he was considered a premium pitcher, the Brewers wouldn't even be players and he would have signed with a big market team long ago. Does anybody think that Kershaw, Kluber, etc. would still be trolling for offers in mid-January? Depends on what the asking price was. If Kershaw was available and demanding a 10 year, 350 million dollar deal then he'd probably be trolling for offers mid-January. Once age and performance is taken into account, I'd say that's about equivalent to Arrieta's 8 year, 200 million demand.

Worst in franchise history? No way. That 119 innings that Jungmann threw for the Brewers in 2015 might make him more valuable than the entire 1996 and 1997 draft classes combined. Geoff Geary might have been the best player drafted in those two seasons but he was a 41st rounder that didn't sign. In 1998 they hit on Bill Hall but that was it. If not for him it would have been complete whiffs in three consecutive seasons. The organization was completely clueless during this timeframe. Loved Sal Bando as a player but MLB GM material he was most definitely not!

The million dollar question is in what dollar range does "overpay" land. Seems like most projections had him at 25 million per season and Boras was reported as looking for an 8-year, 200 million dollar deal which would also be 25 million per season. How much above that merits the term "overpay?" Would have to think at least 27 million. At a minimum that would mean a 3-year, 81 million dollar offer.

When the Brewers are using one of the rotation spots as a "bullpen by committee" approach in the stretch run of a pennant drive, and then Wilkerson got that last start...pretty much the writing was on the wall that the Brewers didn't think Jungmann had a future in Milwaukee. I wish Taylor well. He's talented. Bottom line is that he put together a pretty good 119 major league innings in 2015, so he has the talent to do it. Hopefully the change of scenery will benefit him and he can find his way back to MLB and be successful (as long as it's not with the Cubs or Cardinals).

Cleveland will not include Mejia in a Santana trade. He is either firmly in their future OR will be used in a much bigger move down the road (Jose Quintana type player or better).

Because the Indians' 2017 payroll was at a record high 124 million and they are projected to be at 133 million to start 2018. They are not in a big TV market (17th largest) and adding Cain would likely push their payroll to well over 150 million. They might not be able to go that high even with the recent success.

Mejia doesn't work in this trade at all. He's in the same class as Brinson so the only way the values match up would be to also include Brinson...but it doesn't make much sense for the Indians to add both Santana and Brinson. I could see Merryweather being included in a trade. If Salazar is traded the rotation is likely Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Tomlin, Clevinger and I'd guess that Ryan Merritt is the 6th/insurance starter. Merritt made four starts for them last year so he's probably the next guy in line. Merryweather did not fare well at AAA last year (6.58 ERA, 1.67 WHIP) and isn't listed in the Indian's top 10 prospects by Baseball America. Really cannot see him as being an untouchable in trade talks. The more I looked at the Indian's outfield situation, the more I think that it doesn't make sense for them to include Greg Allen as a third piece in a deal. Take him out an include RHP-Aaron Civale instead. So I'd expect it to be something along the lines of Santana and Bickford OR Medeiros for Salazar and Chang and Civale.

I would agree that a centerfielder would make much more sense for the Indians. Brantley got 0 at-bats as a centerfielder last year so I'd guess they just don't want to play him there anymore. As already noted Chisenhall can play there but I doubt the Indians would want him to start 100 games there in case something happened with Zimmer. Zimmer is a long-term, building block type player for them but he only slashed .241/.307/.385/.692 last season so that's probably where they need insurance. Not sure if they would view Tyler Naquin or Greg Allen as the centerfield insurance piece? If it's Allen then he'd probably have to be subtracted from the trade and a different top 10 organizational prospect included. But I do think the Indians could use another outfielder. Over the last three years Chisenhall averaged 105 games played and Brantley only averaged 79. Braun is the model of durability when compared to these two players. Even if those games played for Chisenhall and Brantley are all starts and not bench appearances, it still leaves 140 games open for a different player to start. Even though Chisenhall and Brantley are both good players, I almost have to think their corner outfield situation is rather poor considering the injury factor. Without this trade the Indians outfield is probably Brantley, Chisenhall, Guyer, Naquin and Zimmer. Naquin has two options left so with Santana it looks like Brantley, Chisenhall, Guyer, Santana and Zimmer. I could see the Indians doing this, especially if they are looking to move Salazar. The other thing is that Brantley and Chisenhall are both free agents after this year so having Santana under control for four seasons would be make him a logical fit for them. But again, for 2019 they may be looking at Allen, Guyer (2019 option year), Naquin, Santana, Zimmer as their outfielders so Allen may have to be subtracted out of a possible trade.

I think Salazar and Santana are pretty reasonable candidates to build a trade around. It would be interesting to see what a "league consensus" would be for the value of these players. Domingo Santana's average 2017 WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs was 3.15. Personally I think that's where he should be valued for each of the next four seasons. However, Depth Charts and Steamer has projected him in the 1.6-1.7 WAR area for 2018. Based on that I think it's hard to think that MLB teams would see Santana as a 3+ WAR player for each of the next three years. Danny Salazar's average WAR has gone from 3.2 in 2015 to 2.7 in 2016 to 1.75 in 2017. That seems to have more to do with a yearly drop in innings (185 to 137 to 103) than it does with performance. Despite the decline, Depth Charts and Steamer project him as a 2.3 WAR player in 2018. That's well above what he did in in 2017 but is slightly below the average over the last three seasons. If one assumes Danny Salazar is a 2.3 WAR pitcher per season from 2018-2020 then I'd estimate his surplus value at approximately 45 million dollars. If one assumes Domingo Santana is a 1.7 WAR player per season from 2018-2021 then I'd estimate his surplus value at approximately 49 million dollars. So if those are the estimates, Cleveland would only have to throw in one role player type prospect to even it up. But I'd argue that 1.7 WAR is more of a floor value for Santana rather than what should be expected. The average between Santana's 2017 results and 2018 projection is 2.4. If one assumes Domingo Santana is a 2.4 WAR player per season from 2018-2021 then I'd estimate his surplus value at approximately 72 million dollars. Then we'd be talking about Cleveland throwing in a back end of the top 100 prospect or two solid top ten organizational prospects. As odd as it seems, this might be the opportunity for Stearns to get some of the prospects that he didn't get when Lucroy vetoed the Cleveland trade. Maybe something like: Cleveland gets: OF - Domingo Santana (72 million surplus value...2.4 WAR player each of next four seasons) role-player pitching prospect / maybe either Medeiros or Bickford (5.72 million surplus value) Total = 77.72 million Milwaukee gets: RHP - Danny Salazar (45 million surplus value...2.3 WAR player each of next three seasons) SS - Yu-Cheng Chang (top 10 organizational prospect...11.45 million surplus value) OF - Greg Allen (top 10 organizational prospect...11.45 million surplus value) Total = 67.9 million Numbers have the Brewers getting the short end by 10 million but this is what I would expect. The Brewers would be getting the major league arm back in the deal and no question the two better prospects would both be headed Milwaukee's way. Would I personally do it? No, only because I don't like that decrease in Salazar's innings total. But if Stearns was to gamble on pitching then Salazar would be a good guy to take the risk on because when he's on the mound he has been good. Also, Greg Allen will not be an impact bat like Santana but he's fast, can play defense and has been a pretty good OBP guy in the minors so if he turns out to be a hit then he could end up filling a top of the order spot which is something the Brewer lineup needs. There is a lot to like in this deal for both sides.

Cobb is halfway to getting signed now that he's down from 5 years to 4. Now he just has to drop that annual value down from 17.5 million to 14.5 million and teams will be ready to move.