JosephC

Sims hasn't been a highly regarded prospect for a few years now and bombed in his first MLB go-around. He's only 23 and I'm definitely not counting him out, but IMO he does not have any more value than Broxton and I'd think a straight-up trade of the two would favor the Braves.

In all reality, a Braun+cash for Kemp+prospects made much more sense prior to the Yelich/Cain moves. The Brewers would be in wait-and-see mode, would enter 2018 and if were running at .500 would still have all the prospects to make some significant moves in June/July. They would have picked up a couple more prospects in the Kemp deal and had gotten rid of Braun's 2020 salary and the buyout for 2021. If they were performing badly, and Kemp had hit something like 18 home runs by the break (not crazy as he still has some pop, 77 home runs over the last three years) and was slashing something like .270/.320/.500/.820 (not crazy in Miller Park), the Brewers might have been able to package him with another 10 million dollars and flip him for a role player prospect (nothing special)...and while the team would have probably eaten something like 14-15 million between both deals, then they would also have Kemp's 2019 salary off the books. But looking at the situation now...if Braun is traded then Santana stays. If Santana stays then how does Kemp play with Yelich/Cain/Santana in the outfield? If Kemp doesn't play, then how does he re-gain any value so he can be flipped? Kemp is obviously on the bench and then the Brewers are stuck with him through 2019. Doesn't make any sense to trade both Braun and Santana and play Kemp everyday for a team that spent significant resources this off-season and are apparently in win-mode. Sure, trading both Braun and Santana works out if Kemp comes in and actually does slash .270/.320/.500/.820 but chances of him hitting what I consider his ceiling is probably about 30%. Too risky after making bold moves with Yelich and Cain. This had come up somewhere in a previous thread and really didn't go that far. I still think the #1 biggest hangup would be convincing Attanasio that we are picking up Matt Kemp's contract, and oh by the way we have to throw in a few million dollars for it to work because the Dodger's luxury tax committment has to go down in the swap. Braun is almost irrelevant in the conversation. Hard for me to imagine a small market owner giving the thumbs up to taking on what certainly appears to be a negative WAR player at a 43 million dollar price tag and then throwing in 4 million dollar on top of it.

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/85013/real-or-not-special-edition-reasons-for-the-sloooow-hot-stove-season 2015-16 top 15 free agents: 113.5 WAR 2016-17 top 15 free agents: 81.7 WAR 2017-18 top 15 free agents: 67.1 WAR 2018-19 potential top 15: 116.8 WAR (over 2016-17 seasons)

Between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, Santana was a 3.15 WAR player last year and is projected to be a 1.7 WAR player next year. Godley was a 3.95 WAR player last year and is projected to be a 1.9 WAR player next year. Godley has one less year of service but Santana is younger (Godley = April of 1990 while Santana = August of 1992). Godley had an awful 6.39 ERA in 2016 but that's deceptive as his xFIP was 4.20 the same season. Last year Godley had a 3.37 ERA and a 3.32 xFIP so it looks pretty legitimate. He's not a real hard-thrower (91.5 MPH) and only throws his fastball about 33% of the time, lots of times guys like that just don't get the respect they deserve. The extra year of service makes me believe that Godley is the more valuable player but a straight-up swap is not an unreasonable suggestion. Things that make me think it's a real possibility is that Godley only projects at their fifth starter, and moving him would allow them to put Archie Bradley back in the rotation which is something it sounds like they want to do in the future (or maybe now?). But I've also heard read some stuff that they could use a corner outfielder now, but would prefer it if that outfielder could also play center to give them some insurance in case they lose A.J. Pollock next off-season, that would obviously work against Santana because I don't think anyone views him as a centerfielder even though he has played there.

The Braun/Kemp swap doesn't make sense for the Dodgers because, even though Kemp is scheduled to make more that Braun in 2018 and 2019, the average annual value of Braun's deal was higher than Kemp's deal so for luxury tax purposes the Braun contract would actually account for 1 million more than the Kemp contract, which would push the Dodgers even closer to the luxury tax threshold. The Brewers would have to kick in some money, and good luck convincing Attanasio that it's a good idea to pay the Dodgers to dump Kemp on us and as part of it only receive a marginal prospect or two in return. Matt Kemp has no value at this point so it's very safe to say that he is a -43 million in surplus value. It's probably also safe to say that a good portion of MLB teams would view Braun something like a 1.5, 1.0, 0.5 WAR player over the next three years which would put his value at 28.79 million, then subtracting the 57 million he's still owed and that puts him at a -28.21 million in surplus value. So the difference between the two is 14.79 million, then the Brewers kick in 5 million for luxury tax purposes and they should get about 20 million back in prospect surplus value. Obviously the Brewers wouldn't get the pick of the litter since this would only be a salary dump for the Dodgers and they are already under the threshold. I think, at best from the Brewer's perspective, this swap would look something like: Dodgers get: OF-Ryan Braun 4 million dollars Brewers get: OF-Matt Kemp C-Will Smith RHP-Dustin May Probably the best aspect of this trade is that Kemp's deal runs one year less than Braun. So when 2020 comes around the team wouldn't have to worry about Kemp because he would be gone. However, when 2020 rolls around the Brewers have to think about the 16 million they owe Braun, the 4 million buyout they will owe Braun in 2021 and the concept that Braun very likely just won't be a very good player in 2020.

Arrieta had a six year offer but hasn't signed because he wants a minimum of 26.5 million per season (159 million)? Hosmer has two offers near 140 million dollars but he's refused those because he wants at least an 8 year deal?

Early in the off-season, Salazar's name was floated out there because the Indians have an extra starter. Clevinger's name didn't get floated out there because the Indians are not trading him. Just like with Mejia, the Indians aren't trading him either. That is unless you have a Chris Sale type starting pitcher and the Indians decide they need a front-line pitcher like that at the deadline. If you don't have a Chris Sale, you aren't getting players like Clevinger or Mejia.

Surplus values as follows: Milwaukee = +8.95 million Tampa Bay = -25.86 million Arizona = +16.91 million And if I were to over-value any individual player when doing this analysis, it would likely be Santana as I've assessed him at a +72 million dollar surplus value. I'm guessing the majority of teams would probably have him at about 20 million less which would then put Tampa Bay at -45 million mark in this swap. It's just really, really, really hard to see Tampa Bay parting with Chris Archer, and getting Domingo Santana back as the headliner of the trade.

I honestly think the discussion is a waste of time as I don't see him approving a trade. The Dodgers don't have a need and there the lists ends, plus they'll probably be signing Harper next offseason to further diminish the need. And I don't see Braun being benched while healthy a significant amount. It will be occasional rest days. I don't see a situation where he's healthy and sitting the bench and getting fed up with Counsel. Have to be honest. If I'm the manager, right now Braun is a bench player. And it has nothing to do with stuff like "not liking Braun" or "sick of Braun's contract." If I'm Counsell it's the simple matter of wanting Yelich in left, Cain in center and Santana in right. Would try Braun at first base but considering the way Thames hit RHP last year, Braun would likely be on the worse end of a platoon situation there. And as far as working him into the outfield, I'd be just as motiviated to play Phillips as Braun when facing right handed pitching. Yelich and Santana seem to be fairly durable. When Cain misses time, Yelich and Santana still play the corners and Broxton/Phillips plays center. I still think chances are pretty likely that Santana gets moved, but if opening day arrives and Santana, Thames and Phillips are all on the roster, I'd probably have Braun sitting on the bench the majority of the time.

Arcia is not a no-hit shortstop. According the Fangraphs, the slash line for MLB shortstops last year was .260/.315/.407/.722. Arcia slashed .277/.324/.407/.731 last year. So he was either slightly above average or the argument could be made that he was slightly below average when factoring in the home park. Considering he was only in his age 22 season, I'll take the .277/.324/.407/.731 all day considering he's more likely to get better rather than worse.

That would definitely be how the Brewer's front office would play it. "Team X wants to trade for you and you step in there and play everyday. We want Yelich in left field and he's going to get the vast majority of playing time there. Now it's Santana in right, but we have our eye on Phillips getting a bunch of playing time in right field when facing right handed pitching. We can move you to first base but Thames will be starting against right handed pitching. We will not play you at second base. Stay in Milwaukee where you can get maybe 40 starts in a platoon situation at first base, provided that you can play defense at first base adequately, and maybe get a few starts here and there in the outfield as needed, but you'll largely be a bench player here. If you go to team X, you'll be playing everyday there."

I'm still wondering if Stearns thought he had something worked out for Braun when the Yelich/Cain deals were made. Personally I don't think it makes much sense to have both Braun and Yelich on the roster considering there is no DH. Left field seems to be the best position for both of them. Also have to wonder why the Brewers decided investing so much money in Cain was a good idea considering pitching needs? Did Stearns think he had Braun's contract removed from the payroll and was going to use that money for Cain, and then would still have money left over to address the pitching staff? Just seems really, really, really odd that the Brewers sunk what will probably end up being about 90% of their off-season "capital" in the outfield when the outfield was their strongest position in the organization. We'll see if there are any additional big moves to come. When I look at the current payroll and figure in arbitration raises over the next few years, I would think the Brewers are done. Surely Attanasio could surprise me and stretch out the payroll a bit more...but I'll believe that when I see it.

Their top 2 prospects. 2 top 100s... Smith a mid 60s contact plus 1b, Duplanteir a barely top 100 pitcher. Smith, duplanteir and corbin for Santana would be a smart, a little boost now but value in prospects later deal. Like anderson diaz for segura. IMO a Santana for 1B-Pavin Smith, RHP-Jon Duplantier and OF-Eduardo Diaz is not a crazy ask and is a trade I would make if the Diamondbacks came calling for Santana. May look bad from the Diamondbacks point of view because it includes the Diamondback's top two prospects, but that package would only represent somewhere in the area of 50-55 million in prospect surplus value which would make it a fair swap. If Santana is only good for 2 WAR per season over the next four seasons then his surplus value is probably in the 55 million dollar range. If he maintains the 3 WAR pace he established last year then this would be a great trade for Arizona. Doesn't include a pitcher that can help the Brewers right now but would bring back about half the value they parted with in the Yelich deal and sets them up with plenty of trade chips to make future moves.

Shohei Otani Addison Reed Alex Avila

I just hope the Brewer's don't get too tied up in the idea that they are in "win now at all costs" mode and think they must get immediate rotation help in order to move Santana. I'd be more than happy to see Santana go if the Brewers got a good package of prospects back.

Walker is a 1.55 WAR player taking the three year splits, a 2.6 WAR player if just looking at 2017 and is projected to be a 2.3 WAR player in 2018. I think putting a 2.3 WAR value on him moving forward is fair. Drury is a 0.6 WAR player taking the two year splits, was a 1.4 WAR player if just looking at 2018 and is projected to be a 0.75 WAR player in 2018. I think putting a 0.75 WAR value on him moving forward is fair. When the WAR value is this low, I tend to look at equivalency with prospects and determine surplus value that way. Would any team trade a top 100 prospect for Drury? Not a chance. Maybe a top 10 organizational prospect. So that's what I think his value would be. Already have discussed Santana's value extensively. One of the hardest players in the MLB to project IMO. Was a legitmate 3+ WAR player last year but is only projected at a 1.7 WAR player next year. I feel pretty decent about projecting him at 2.4 WAR moving forward. If you buy all the above, surplus values would be as follows: -Taijuan Walker = 48.41 million -Brandon Drury = 11.45 million Diamondbacks total = 59.86 million -Domingo Santana = 72.75 million -Brandon Woodruff = 17.86 million -Freddy Peralta = 11.45 million -Mauricio Dubon = 11.45 million Brewers total = 113.51 million

If I'm the A's, there is no way I'm trading Puk and really wouldn't be interesting in selling low on Cotton either. A straight up Cotton/Broxton deal would be fair, but why trade a starter with upside for an outfielder that has the look of a 4th or 5th outfielder because of OBP/strikeout problems? Cotton is very much a "hold" if I'm the A's.

That sir, is the exact definition of a parroted talking point.

He's only under control for two more years and as Joey Meyer Bombs has already stated, probably is viewed as a #3/#4 by most of the league so the price tag wouldn't be ridiculous. Probably valued as a 2 WAR player and I'd guess the Astros would probably wouldn't realistically seek a top 100 prospect but would like to get two top ten organizational type prospects back. Maybe something like two players off the list of Mauricio Dubon, Trent Grisham, Freddy Peralta.

Agreed. Just get the feeling that opposing teams would only be putting offers out valuing Santana as a 1.5-2.0 WAR player and with only an approximate 600k price tag for 2018...it makes it an easy decision to keep him. Also think if Santana stays the outfield should be Yelich-Cain-Santana and if Domingo hits over the first three months of the season and establishes himself as a solid 3 WAR player, then he could be a wonderful sell at the deadline considering his still low salary and what would be 3.5 years of control left. Still appears to be plenty of doubters now, but likely will be plenty more believers if it gets to the end of June and he is OBP'ing .360 and OPS'ing .870 which are easily within his reach.

Bundy was a 2.7 WAR player last year but Steamer and Depth Chart only project him as a 1.3 WAR player next year. I really don't think he has any greater value than Santana. If anything, I'd guess the Santana would be valued at an average of 0.3-0.5 WAR per season over Bundy each of the next four seasons. If that's the case then Santana is probably worth about 12-15 million surplus dollars over Bundy. Like with a Salazar trade with Cleveland, the prospect pieces included would have to favor the Brewers, not the Orioles/Indians. If I were in Stearns chair I just might be giving the Orioles a call today and offer Santana, Luis Ortiz and Trent Grisham for Bundy, Schoop, Brach and see what kind of reaction I would get. Schoop was a 4.6 WAR player last year and would have to project as a 3+ WAR player in 2018 even with an OBP regression, so IMO the initial offer would be way short. I'd fully expect the Orioles to reject the deal but it would be a good starting point for negotiations. Orioles would have to have an interest in Santana though, because subtracting him means adding about 60-70 million in prospect value and that means Hiura and Burnes have to be involved and I'm not interested in moving those players after the Yelich deal unless it's for legitimate, top of the rotation type pitching.

I'm pretty sure Volquez is expected to miss all of 2018 after Tommy John surgery.

If the Brewers are going to take a chance on a comeback pitcher, I'd rather go with Jake Peavy.

Odd man out of what? Playing time? Yes, playing time.

I think if Stearns made this Yelich/Cain acquisition with the idea that he could sell off Santana at the price of a 2.7+ WAR player, then he made a mistake. Looking at the projections on Fangraphs and Cain is projected at 1.8, 1.5, 2.1 WAR in 2018 by various models. If that's how the majority of the league sees him, he might only have about 60-70% of the value that Stearns anticipated. And despite Braun still being a quality bat, Santana's .278/.371/.505/.875 clearly outperformed Braun's .268/.336/.487/.823, and even with his questionable defense, it still makes sense that Santana is the everyday player in right field. And if one looks at Braun potentially getting at-bats at first base, against righty pitchers Braun slashed .270/.330/.478/.808 and Thames slashed .265/.382/.551/.933. I don't see anyway that I could sell off Santana at a price that values him as a <2 WAR value, and if Stearns is thinking the same thing then Braun appears to be the odd man out.