JosephC

There are just as many ludicrous pro-Brewer trades that come from Brewer fans.

It really would be cool if Attanasio thought sticking another 35 million on the payroll was as easy as some fans do. It would put the Brewers at around 105 million this year with would be workable but with Santana, Shaw, Davies, Knebel all likely earning pretty big money in arbitration it could easily push the Brewer's payroll to 130 million by 2020.

IMO Logan is too good of a pitcher to sign a split contract or a minor league deal this early. Things are much different if it gets to February 20 and there is still no MLB offer, then you have to take what you can get. Over the last three years Logan has a 4.12 ERA, 3.35 WHIP, 115 ERA+, 11.3 K/9, 2.8 K/BB. Overall his numbers are way too good to be settling for a minor league deal in the first week of January.

I'd really like to see Stearns make a run for Herrera now. My impression of the Royals/Dodgers/White Sox swap yesterday is that the Royals sold Scott Alexander low in order to unload Joakim Soria's contract. Maybe now the Royals would be too worried about complete emptying their bullpen with Soria and Alexander gone, but if not there is a pretty good chance the Brewers could land Herrera for next to nothing. I'd also agree with the Royal fans. Duffy should be valued as a 3+ WAR starter. Roughly speaking, over the next four years at 10 million per WAR that makes him a 30 million dollar player per year. He's making an average of 15 million per year so he'd have +15 million in surplus value per season so over four years that puts a very reasonable estimate on him of +60 million dollars. Even if the Royals sell low on him there is no way they should move him for anything less than 50 million dollars in surplus value. I'd classify Burnes as being a pitcher between 75-100 on the top 100 list, Harrison as a hitter being barely off the top 100 list, Diaz is now firmly off the top 100 list but a solid top 10 organizational prospect and Yamamoto as a fringe prospect. That means Burnes = 17.86 million, Harrison = 17.52 million, Diaz = 11.45 million, Yamamoto = 2.29 million for a total of 49.12 million. Royals should get more than that for Duffy alone. If Harrison does crack the top 100 list that bumps his value to 23.58 million and then the total prospect package is worth an estimated 55.18 million and then, while a tad bit low, could be an offer the Royals would accept. Herrera could be included in that, Brewers could use another bullpen arm and KC could be looking to dump his salary.

Durability would still be the #1 thing I'd look at if making a major acquisition. In that category there is simply no comparison between the two. We'll start with 2013 as that was Archer's first season with 20+ starts. In the last five years Archer has 937 2/3 innings, so a 188 inning/year average and that's with only making 23 starts that first season. Over that same timeframe Cobb has thrown 511 innings for a 128 inning/year average. Archer has been over 200 innings each of the last three years and Cobb has never cracked the 180 inning mark. I've been a big proponent of obtaining a injury-riddled pitcher like Ryu and would be more than willing to do that for the cost of 7 million and a couple fringe prospects. But when a guy is asking 90 million and probably will end up with a 4 year deal in the 56-58 million dollar range, I'd have absolutely no interest if he can't get to 180 innings and Cobb hasn't done that once.

Cobb can go for the 18-20 million per year figure but the reason he isn't signed yet is because no team is going to give that up. If any one team was willing he'd be long off the market. I think AT BEST he's looking at something like 4 years, 62 million or if he can get one more guaranteed year then maybe 5 years, 70 million. But I'd guess four years and I think the final number will probably be in the 56-58 million range.

All those offers are way, way, way too small for a player like Archer. He should bring around the same amount of prospect surplus value back that the White Sox got for Quintana, absolute minimum of 85 million but more likely right in the area of 100 million. Best offer so far is probably Harrison, Ortiz and Diaz. Absolute max ranking for those players at this time would be to list Harrison and Diaz as 76-100 hitters and Ortiz as a 51-75 pitcher on the top 100 prospects list. Even if each of them carried that status the surplus value would only add up to 66.06 million. On the flip side, if Ortiz is a 76-100 pitcher and Harrison and Diaz are not considered top 100 prospects the surplus value would only add up to 40.76 million. Take the best and worst scenarios and split the difference and the Harrison/Ortiz/Diaz package would total 53.41 million in prospect surplus value which to me seems like a pretty fair number. But that number is still only about half of what it would take to land Archer IMO.

With all the free agent losses, I'm not concerned about payroll because I don't really see it as being a limiting factor. I certainly wouldn't be looking to lose Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas and then trade away Duffy and turn around and invest in the free agent market. Long term rebuild with lots of low salaried players, so I really don't think payroll is an issue for the Royals for the next few seasons. For me it's all about value and getting proper value for Duffy. I also have no interest in Jacob Nottingham. Hard to look at it from the Royal's perspective and pick up what would probably would be 3 top 10 prospects and then turn around and trade 2 of their own top 10 prospects in the same deal. My math currently stands as follows. My last offer had Duffy valued at 65.37 million and your last offer had Duffy valued at 50.49 million. I'd be willing to split the difference but that's as low as I would go. Just suspect I could find a better offer elsewhere unless I get a minimum of 55 million in surplus value. If you insist on Griffin and Duenez being included, then to even it up it would require the Brewers to subtract Nottingham from the offer and include someone like Isan Diaz, Tristen Lutz, Freddy Peralta or Brett Phillips. That would kick up the value of Duffy in this deal to 59.65 million. To bring it back down closer to the midpoint the Royals could either include RHP - Kelvin Herrera or another fringe prospect (anybody other than Nick Pratto, Khalil Green, Josh Staumont, Hunter Dozier, Eric Skoglund, Scott Blewett, M.J. Melendez, Nicky Lopez, Seuly Matias, Miguel Amonte). That puts Duffy's value in the deal at 57.36 million which I think is a fair price. If Diaz, Lutz, Peralta and Phillips are all valued too high for inclusion in the deal, then you have to figure out how to subtract Griffin and/or Duenez and still make it work.

I agree 100% that the Brewer's farm system is much better than the Royals. But why would Kansas City kick in three of their own top 10 prospects and off-set so much of the prospect value they are getting back in the trade? I'd roughly estimate the value of the Brewer prospects to be about 52.2 million and the Royals prospects to be about 30.9 million. Picking up just a bit over 20 million in prospect surplus value isn't enough in a Duffy/Thames swap. I'd counter with: Brewers get: LHP - Danny Duffy 2B - Gabriel Cancel Royals get: 1B - Eric Thames RHP - Luis Ortiz 3B - Lucas Erceg OF - Corey Ray RHP - Phil Bickford

And I'll play the part of the Royals GM and say the Thames/Villar/Ray/Bickford/Nottingham offer is an easy pass. Do like Thames but really wouldn't have much interest in Villar. The best arm in the deal coming back to the Royals would have to be better than Bickford (even though personally I am still pretty high on Bickford). Best prospect the Brewers are giving up is Ray and in Baseball America's updated rankings he is only #10, no way is that going to work for a pitcher like Duffy. How about: Brewers get: LHP - Danny Duffy RHP - Kelvin Herrera Royals get: 1B - Eric Thames RHP - Luis Ortiz 3B - Lucas Erceg RHP - Freddie Peralta OF - Troy Stokes

In Baseball America's updated rankings, Burnes is #3, Harrison is #5 and Diaz is #9 on the Brewer's top 10 prospect list. So Diaz may still be a top 100 prospect on the MLB Pipeline list, but probably won't be when the list is updated in the spring. Burnes and Harrison are probably top 100 players but chances are pretty good that both will be listed in the bottom 1/4 of that list. Based on this, I'd say that the Brewers would definitely be getting the better value in this deal. Duffy has a bunch of warts but over the last two seasons he's a 3+ WAR pitcher and Merrifield was a 3.5 WAR player in his first MLB season. Those two come with 9 years of team control remaining. Brewers would only be giving up about 55 million in surplus value here and the Royals should be looking to get back in the area of 80 million in surplus value for giving up the combination of Duffy and Merrifield. That being said, even though this trade heavily favors Milwaukee, I still would not be in favor of doing the deal. Two problems with Merrifield. One is that he's probably better in the 6th spot of a lineup and the Brewers need top of the order hitters. Second is that Merrifield has five years of control but is at the spot that is probably the deepest in the Brewer's system (although I realize moving Diaz in the trade alleviates some of that concern. And while there is no issue with Duffy's performance, I wouldn't want the Brewers to lock themselves into a 60 million dollar commitment to a starter that has had some health issues in the past. If I were a Yankee fan I'd feel totally different about that, but it's another thing when you are a Brewer fan and have to consider those associated payroll considerations.

MLBTR had a piece today with an interesting note about this. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/jake-arrieta-alex-cobb-free-agent.html I think the "bargain deal" aspect for the top starting pitchers is pretty ridiculous. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html Let's look at deals that have happened so far. Carlos Santana / prediction = 3/45 / actual contract = 3/60 Zach Cozart / prediction = 3/42 / actual contract = 3/38 Tyler Chatwood / prediction = 3/20 / actual contract = 3/38 Mike Minor / prediction = 4/28 / actual contract = 3/28 Jake McGee / prediction = 3/18 / actual contract = 3/27 Bryan Shaw / prediction = 3/21 / actual contract = 3/27 Brandon Morrow / prediction = 3/24 / actual contract = 2/21 Tommy Hunter / prediction = 2/12 / actual contract = 2/18 Juan Nicasio / prediction = 3/21 / actual contract = 2/17 Pat Neshek / prediction = 2/12 / actual contract = 2/16.25 Yonder Alonso / prediction = 2/22 / actual contract = 2/16 Mike Mikolas / prediction = 2/10 / actual contract = 2/15.5 Jhoulys Chacin / prediction = 2/14 / actual contract = 2/15.5 Wellington Castillo / prediction = 2/14 / actual contract = 2/15.5 Anthony Swarzak / prediction = 2/14 / actual contract = 2/14 Steve Cishek / prediction = 2/14 / actual contract = 2/13 C.C. Sabathia / prediction = 2/24 / actual contract = 1/10 Michael Pineda / prediction = 2/6 / actual contract = 2/10 Brandon Kintzler / prediction = 2/14 / actual contract = 2/10 So of the 19 contracts signed so far off the list of their top 50 free agents, 12 of the 19 received the same or more money than was predicted. Of the remaining 7, 2 of those had a higher average annual value than the prediction but signed for 1 year less. It certainly is open for debate in regards to those five other contracts of how far short they were of the prediction. I'd argue that the Cozart and Cishek deals were pretty much right on the money and of the 19 deals so far, only the Alonso, Sabathia and Kintzler deals were on the low side (and I don't think the size of the Sabathia deal surprised anybody). Grand totals from above. Predicted = 47 years, 375 million dollars, average annual value = 7.98 million. Actual = 43 years, 409.75 million, average annual value = 9.53 million. No question that at this point, the free agent market has not produced many bargains. Even though the numbers look like the free agents have been favored and there have been some overpays...I'd argue that MLBTradeRumor missed badly on a prediction (pretty much everyone on this board initially commented that the Chatwood prediction seemed whacked) and the Santana contract skewed the results just a bit. My generally impression is that so far the free agent market has generally been pretty balanced and has gone as expected so far. If anything, I'd say relievers tended to be paid about 15% more than what was expected. So now back to possible bargain deals for the top starters. Yu Darvish / prediction = 6/160 / contract demand = ?? Jake Arrieta / prediction = 4/100 / contract demand = anywhere from 6/160 to 8/200 Lance Lynn / prediction = 4/56 then upgraded to 4/60 / contract demand = 5/95 Alex Cobb / prediction = 4/48 / contract demand = anywhere from 5/80 to 5/100 The reason none of these players have signed yet is simple...contract demands too high and fairly unrealistic IMO. Once they come down to more realistic figures they will have no problem finding a lucrative, long-term deal. No idea how the media has come up with the idea that if a player isn't paid every penny of what he wants that he is somehow getting screwed? I'll say with great confidence that when all is said and done, Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb will all have contracts that pay them more than what MLBTradeRumors and most baseball writers/experts had predicted back in November. If Darvish missed the 160 million figure, it will only be because he didn't get a 6th year. Even so, I'd guess the average annual value of a shorter deal will exceed the 26.67 average annual value that was predicted. If people are looking for bargains, the top free agent pitchers is not the group to look at.

If I'm the Rays and I could get Javier Baez, Ian Happ, RHP-Adbert Alzolay, OF-Mark Zagunis for Archer and throw in Span and make the Cubs eat the rest of that contract...that's a deal I would do. Rays: C-Ramos 1B- ? 2B-Baez 3B-Arroyo SS-Adames LF-Happ CF-Kiermaier RF-Souza DH-Dickerson SP - Odorizzi, Snell, Honeywell, De Leon, (Faria, Andriese, Pruitt) Too much youth to win right now but would definitely be an interesting and exciting team to watch if some of those youngsters come through. Cubs now lack prospects but still have enough young major league pieces to get necessary deals done. I'd guess talk of an Archer/Cubs deal is just posturing by the Cubs. They probably do want Cobb and Cobb is still in the mode of asking for an extra one or two years that he's not going to get. Once his demands become reasonable, I think he'll be a Cub and their pitching staff will be set.

Apparently the Pirates are pushing hard for Gleyber Torres which isn't surprising but somewhat unrealistic. I guess the Pirates could then start throwing in prospects to equal up the value but why would a small market team do something like that? If the Pirates don't back down on their price then Cole will be in Pittsburgh in 2018. If I was a Pirates fan I wouldn't mind seeing them shoot a bit lower and look to clean out half of the Yankees good pitching prospects. Maybe go for something like Gerrit Cole for RHP-Chance Adams, RHP-Luis Medina, RHP-Domingo Acevedo, OF-Billy McKinney. Adams is a solid top 100 prospect. Medina and Acevedo have rough edges but are both extreme high-upside arms. McKinney is down the list but I think he has a good chance of being a solid reserve corner outfielder. The Yankees keep all their top position players and according to Baseball America, they would only lose 1 of their top 4 pitching prospects in this deal. IMO a deal that really makes sense for both sides.

I've always been a fan of Logan. Last year he tore a back muscle in July. I don't think he had surgery but Cleveland put him on the 60 day DL when it happened (mid-July) and he never returned so I was under the impression that it was fairly serious. The thing from last year that really jumps out is that he had a 4.71 ERA but a 3.16 FIP. The BABIP against him was a pretty high .353 so maybe that ERA had more to do with bad luck than anything else. I wouldn't bring him in strictly as a lefty specialist. Last couple seasons he's been pretty decent against right handed hitters although before that results were pretty mixed, some real bad seasons versus righties but some decent ones in there as well. I'm all for bringing him in if his back is OK.

I was thinking Arrieta would max out at four years but after listening to the Boras schpeel and knowing how gullible MLB owners that want to win are, I'll guess Arrieta gets a 5 year, 140 million dollar deal.

Big, big spring training for Yovani. Possibly his last shot of being on a major league roster. Have to think we'll see the best of whatever he has left.

Looper's numbers were bad but I always and still to this day, even when looking at the bad numbers, think this was a pretty good signing for the Brewers. CC Sabathia really carried the Brewers down the stretch the previous season and the Brewers were also losing Ben Sheets. Gallardo was coming off injury. By the point the Brewers had to already know they had completely blown it on Suppan as he had a high 4's ERA and 1.5+ WHIP over his first two seasons as a Brewer. Dave Bush seemed to be a decent enough back-end starter (but sure wasn't that season) and then they had Manny Parra but he was already showing signs of not be a solid member of the rotation that could be counted on. The rotation was a complete mess and then they were losing Salomon Torres, Guillermo Mota and Brian Shouse out the the bullpen. Basically they were in a situation where the entire pitching staff needed to be rebuilt. They threw a moderately sized one year deal at Looper and he lead the team in starts, innings pitched and wins. Like most I rarely pay attention to a pitcher's W/L record but in this case it demonstrates that Looper did keep the team in most of the games he started. And as ugly as his ERA was, it was better than every starter not named Gallardo that season. All said he was a decent bandage player to get the club through a season where the pitching staff looked like it was going to be a total mess and indeed it was. At least the Brewers did hit on Trevor Hoffman that year. I'd still say the Suppan deal was the worst and still by a pretty wide margin. Sabremetrics weren't even needed back in those days to indicate Suppan was going to crash. He just allowed way, way, way too many baserunners and couldn't strike out anybody. He wasn't even a real innings eater. Back in those days 200 innings wasn't that big of a deal and he had missed that total for 3 consecutive seasons because he was so mediocre he generally didn't get that far into games. To think he got a 4 year deal is rather mind-boggling.

The only reason Braun doesn't have any positive surplus value at this point is because of health. In the last five years, Longoria has appeared in at least 156 games in each of those seasons (160+ games four of the last five years). The Rays kicked in another 14.5 million after throwing away another 13 million by picking up Span who is likely a <1 WAR player in the final year of his deal. Longoria is due 86 million but subtract out the 27.5 million the Rays just surrendered in this deal and the net cost is 58.5 million...making Longoria an 11.7 million dollar per year player for the Giants. Last year his average WAR between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference was 3.05. I'm a bit skeptical of that because I think that the defensive aspect can be over-rated for corner infielders. But I still see Longoria as an Ian Kinsler type, just a solid player that doesn't miss any games and goes out there and does everything fairly well. Because of that I'm guessing Longoria won't have a huge falloff and will hold his value fairly well over the next 3 or 4 years.

Understandable why some people would flip out over some of those splits last year but I think this is a pretty solid signing. Started out in Colorado and after all those years there he was only giving up 0.8 HR/9. His sinker/slider repertoire seems like a decent fit for Miller Park. He has a five pitch mix. To me the biggest concern is the left/right splits. The Fangraphs article talked about moving him around on the pitching rubber. I almost wonder if the Brewers will want to scrap his approach against lefties and maybe go with something else (4-seam + change-up)? Who knows but there seems to be a lot to work with here. Certainly can understand why Stearns was interested.

I'm not a big fan of Longoria because I think too much of his value comes from the defensive aspect and IMO that can be over-rated when talking about the corner positions. Nonetheless, Longoria is still a pretty solid offensive player, is extremely durable, and I'm guessing he'll hold at least decent value through the next few seasons because I don't think there will be a big defensive falloff even though there have been a couple negative DRS numbers over the last few years. Kind of like an Ian Kinsler in that regard. I really think the Rays should have gotten a better return for him. Span is a negative value player and if the Rays end up sending something like another 10-12 million to San Francisco then the money they are shipping to a big market seems to offset all the prospect value they get back in the deal. It's hard to believe the Rays couldn't find something better than this. They must really like Arroyo and think he can step in an play third base right away. Really surprised the Angels didn't try to swing this deal. I think Longoria would be a much better fit for them than Cozart.

Jon Heyman is reporting that Jake Peavy is looking to return to the baseball. At first I kind of laughed at the idea but after looking at the numbers it appears he might be worth a modest investment. 2014 and 2015 = 313 1/3 innings, 3.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.03 FIP, 103 ERA+, 2.68 K/BB ratio 2016 looks terrible when simply looking at the ERA, but some of the peripherals aren't too bad. 2016 = 5.54 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 4.36 FIP, 73 ERA+, 2.83 K/BB ratio No real telling what he might be able to do after a year off. 2018 would be his age 37 season. I'd be leaning against it, only because of innings. Reaching 150 innings probably would be pretty tough. But if he could regain what he did in 2014/2015 and stretch it up to 170+ innings, he'd likely represent great value because it's unlikely he's going to get anything above a minimal contract.

Moreland has always seemed to be more of a "second division" type player to me. Not surprised that the Red Sox brought him in last year but am surprised they've committed to him for two more years.

If Gallardo had an increase in velocity last year it really didn't help him. He ended the year with a 5.72 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 5.53 FIP, 74 ERA+, 1.57 K/BB. I don't really know if his fastball velocity means anything at this point. As far as Gallardo's numbers early in appearances, this is all I've got (from ESPN's site) 2017: pitches 1-15 opponents slash line against = .299/.374/.535/.909 pitches 16-30 opponents slash line against = .236/.303/.386/.689 2016: pitches 1-15 opponents slash line against = .310/.421/.593/1.014 pitches 16-30 opponents slash line against = .273/.324/.445/.769

I tried to work through the Braun/Kemp swap and in the end I don't think it works unless the Brewers kick in an unrealistic amount of money. Trading for Kemp and prospects would result in a pretty messy situation. The problem is that the more money the Dodgers kick in, the less the prospect return will be. And now we are talking about the Brewers who are limited by their market size. Say the Brewers eat 18 million on a Kemp contract and then get off to a bad start. Fans then ask how could a team that finished above .500 the previous season make this type of investment, and then end up signing players like Gallardo and passing on Neshek, Hunter, Swarzak? The other thing is, if I have the viewpoint that this is a non-competitive team and I am still in rebuild mode (which is why I'd make the trade in the first place), then I want to keep Kemp and play him every day. Why? He may be a replacement level player but last year he slashed .276/.318/.463/.781. Over the last three years he has averaged 26 home runs and 91 RBIs per season. It's not crazy to think that he could come into Miller Park and slash something like .270/.320/.480/.800 and maybe hit something like 16 home runs during the first half and if he does that mean he would probably have pretty decent value at the trade deadline considering his contract would actually be pretty reasonable with all the money the Dodgers are contributing. But for that to happen he would need to play everyday. According to Fangraphs he hasn't played in center since 2014. So how do you play him with Braun and Santana in the mix? Does the team just throw away what could be a decent asset like they did with Scooter Gennett. I almost think a Santana trade would have to happen before the Brewers could do something like this. I think if something like this were to happen it would breakdown something like: Dodgers get: unknown, longest of long shot prospect Brewers get: OF-Matt Kemp (Dodgers already are paying 3.5 million of his contract in each of the next two year, now they add 9 million more in each of the next two years...so of the 21.5 million annual salary, the Dodgers pay 12.5 million and the Brewers pay 9 million in both 2018 and 2019) OF-DJ Peters RHP-Dustin May So the question is, if Kemp turns out to be a worthless asset, is DJ Peters and Dustin May worth 18 million dollars? Wild card could be Ryu. If the Dodgers do this because it allows them to turn around and sign either Darvish or Arrieta, then Ryu is an unnecessary asset and including him would shave another 6 million off their luxury tax calculations. And Ryu does not have very much surplus value, so he'd be a logical inclusion that really would not change the overall equation.