JosephC

I have the surplus value changing hands in this deal as: Arizona = +87.13 million Milwaukee = -5.17 million Tampa Bay = -81.96 million From the Brewer's end it's a fair deal but it's way lop-sided for Arizona and against Tampa Bay. It's very possible that the two most best assets in this deal are Chris Archer and Willy Adames and having Tampa Bay part with both of them and getting back Domingo Santana as the headliner just isn't realistic. Maybe if Arcia also went to Tampa Bay it would make more sense as Adames is their shortstop of the future. The folks that think the Brewers got screwed in this deal are under-estimating the value of Adames. He probably is in the same territory as Mejia from Cleveland when it comes to prospect value.

I still wouldn't mind the idea of the Brewers trying to get Bundy, Schoop and Brach in one package deal. Decent chance that the package for those three players wouldn't be that much higher then trading for Archer. There are the obvious drawbacks. Bundy still has upside but may not be better than the average starter the Brewers have now. Schoop has had OBP issues in the past. Brach is only under contract for one more season. But the Brewers would be getting 7 years of service time for major leaguers and they fill starter, reliever and second baseman all with one move. I'd be the first to admit that I really don't have a clue about how the Orioles are run. Always have perceived them as the type of organization who need to do it the Ray's way since they just will not have the money of the Yankees and Red Sox. But then looking at Cot's I see they ran a 165 million dollar payroll last year. Have no clue as to how they got to that number considering the lack of star power on their roster. But when they are paying J.J. Hardy 14 million and Ubaldo Jimenez 13.5 million, I guess those type of numbers add up pretty quick. All that I know is that they have to trade Machado this year. I just don't see re-signing him being a smart move as a 300 million commitment is pretty likely and an organization cannot let a guy like that walk and only get a compensatory pick in return. After that, and looking at thier rotation, why exactly wouldn't they be in full re-build mode? I wouldn't mind throwing a decent offer in front of them for a Brundy/Schoop/Brach package and see how they react. A couple more Orioles notes: I had thrown out the Bundy/Schoop/Brach concept before and someone here pointed out that the Orioles weren't looking to trade Schoop. I had heard the same thing. But it looks like Schoop skipped the Orioles FanFest and it sounds like he ruffled some feathers in doing so. http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-schoop-20180127-story.html And as far as my opinion that the Orioles should be going in complete rebuild mode. Right now if the season started they would probably be looking at a rotation something like: -Kevin Gausman (4.68 ERA, 1.49 WHIP in 186 2/3 innings last year) -Dylan Bundy (4.24 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 169 2/3 innings last year) -Gabriel Ynoa (4.92 ERA, 1.51 WHIP in 53 lifetime MLB innings) -Miguel Castro (4.38 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 98 2/3 lifetime MLB innings) -Alec Asher (5.55 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in 116 2/3 lifetime MLB innings) And to make things worse, it sounds like the two free agent pitchers the Orioles are pursing are: -Chris Tillman (7.84 ERA, 1.89 WHIP in 93 innings last year) -Drew Hutchinson (4.93 ERA, 1.36 WHIP in 417 2/3 lifetime MLB innings...spent 2017 in AAA) https://sports.yahoo.com/report-orioles-interested-drew-hutchison-180010390.html So again, why not put an offer on the table for some of their assets and see what the price would be? They cannot seriously be considering themselves contenders during the next couple of seasons.

Could just be posturing on the Brewer's end to give the impression to other GMs and free agents that they are happy with where they are at and will not extend themselves either financially or with prospects in any deals over the next couple of months. But maybe Attanasio reviewed the finances again and decided he didn't want to spend any more money. Or maybe Stearns looked at the minor league system and realized he only has a couple more worthy trade chips and didn't want to part with those. Or maybe they did have another deal worked out that would have freed up some more money (Braun, as crazy as it may seem) and that deal fell through. Personally I didn't like making the initial big splash moves on outfielders when the outfield wasn't a major problem other than OBP out of centerfield. Would have been perfectly content to just sign Cain OR trade for Yelich and play him in centerfield knowing that I'd only see average defense out of him at that position. Still think the Brewers will over-extend themselves (spend too much money and put themselves in an arbitration bind a couple years from now, or completely wipe out the top end of the minor league system) and acquire a pitcher.

I think a Realmuto deal would probably look something like: Brewers get: C - J.T. Realmuto Marlins get: C - Manny Pina 2B - Keston Hiura RHP - Luis Ortiz LHP - Kodi Medeiros Normally I would say the Marlins would be looking just for minor leaguers but their catcher situation would be so bad that Pina heads to Miami.

Untouchable.

Price tag on Bauer would be very high. They have six starters. Weeks ago they indicated Salazar was the starter they would prefer to move. He could likely be had for market value. A team would likely have to overpay for any of the other starters, Cleveland aren't rebuilding and are a legitimate contender so they won't be selling low on players like Bauer.

But, if we dont win the WS the Archer trade is a complete flop. 4+ years a complete flop. The team is set up to win a division now or later being beyond 2022. I worry this wont work out (especially if Arrieta is signed) and our prospect sytem cant return us in 2022 to a division winning level, much less WS contending. Yelich was a good deal due to production and age entering prime. Archer's production/age is up in questions to carrying the torch to put Milw over the top. Waiting a year could put guys like Manaea or Fulmer to light as TOR types, if you needed that in trades with Woodruff/Burnes 1year more developed. Stroman was thrown out there, 1 of the many Braves SPs. Yelich is 100pct a sure thing for what we gave up. If we won a WS, I will say I was completely wrong. Losing the WS, Im justified to this view. Losing 2 World Series Ill say Im wrong. Acquiring Archer with Santana/Ortiz/ 1 of Erceg/Lutz/Dubon and 1 Pitching prospect below Peralta whomever. I change my attitude. But the other package? See ya TB as we lose to you in the WS in 2022 is my expectation Totally disagree. The package for Archer would probably be about the same as the package for Yelich. Cannot agree at all with the claim that if the Brewers don't win a World Series with Archer then the trade was a flop. Don't understand how the entire team's performance falls on Archer's shoulders if the Brewers give up 110 million in prospect surplus value for him, but it doesn't really matter how the team does with Yelich after the Brewers gave up 110 million dollars in prospect surplus value to acquire him.

I really think the Denard Span acquisition changed things in terms of Tampa Bay's outfield. Prior to that, they really had use for another outfielder. While Span certainly wouldn't figure into their future plans, they would probably be more than content to go with the combination of Mallix Smith and Span in left field and see if Smith can prove to be an everyday outfielder. So they have Dickerson at DH, and Smith/Span, Kiermaier and Souza in the outfield. I don't see them really coveting Santana with the way their roster looks. And I certainly can't see Santana being a centerpiece in a deal for a player like Chris Archer. If an Archer deal gets done it's likely all prospects headed to Tampa Bay, although I do think the Rays would have interest in Travis Shaw. Not crazy to think that someone like Zach Davies would also interest them. My guess would be: Brewers get: RHP-Chris Archer Rays get: 2B-Keston Hiura RHP-Corbin Burnes 3B-Lucas Erceg RHP-Freddie Peralta And I'll calculate the prospect value in that deal as 97.66 million, under the 100+ million I would expect Archer to get. So one might actually classify that move as a small bargain for the Brewers.

I like that deal a lot more but my understanding is they really like Schoop and aren't looking to trade him? I've heard that too and IMO it just doesn't make any sense. I say put a good offer in front of them and see how they react. I could see Baltimore just being 100% opposed to doing it because it would be an obvious surrender move and would upset the fan base. But looking at Baltimore, there's just no question that they have to trade Machado before the end of July and if they do that then how can they expect to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox? The Britton injury just messed things up that much more. Brach will be a free agent anyway so holding him for one year makes no sense since they don't figure to be contenders. Also makes Schoop's 2018 season not very valuable to them and can they expect to compete in the last year of his deal? To hit the 100+ million surplus value mark the Brewers likely give up Hiura, Burnes and two more top 8 prospects. Yes, really expensive but when looking at this type of package or Archer or Stroman, that's likely what the cost would be. Baltimore loses 7 years of service time but possibly gains 24 years of service time if they pick four Brewer prospects correctly. I think if Baltimore doesn't want to do this deal because it's an obvious surrender move then they are doing themselves a disservice because I don't see it happening over the next couple of seasons. Passing on it because they don't like an offer from Milwaukee would be the obvious right thing to do. Also would be reasonable for them to not deal Bundy because of the 4 years of control that are left...and then deal Schoop and Brach in separate deals. Again, I wouldn't be in favor of this because I don't want to deal anymore top end prospects, but if Attanasio and Stearns are determined to make this happen now and top prospects be damned, then this is the way I'd prefer to see them go.

Not to derail the topic, but before throwing 100+ million in surplus value for any one player, I'd rather head to Baltimore and see if that same 100 million in prospect surplus value could possibly land me RHP-Dylan Bundy (4 years of team control), 2B-Jonthan Schoop (2 years of team control) and RHP-Brad Brach (1 year of team control). Bundy isn't top shelf yet but was solid last year and still has upside. Schoop has had OBP issues in the past but really brings a big power bat to a middle infield spot and the OBP issues from last year shouldn't be as big of an issue with Cain in CF. Brach is a solid reliever but the Brewers would only have him for one year. Definitely would involve giving up Hiura and Burnes (and more), but those guys would very likely be gone in an Archer deal, a Stroman deal or any other deal for a front-line starter. At least this deal would immediately fill three holes in the short term and the pitcher you land has just as much team control as Archer. Also gives the team three players instead of one, which is good on the insurance side. If you trade for Archer and he blows out his shoulder then you get nothing, if Bundy blows out his shoulder the team still gets 2 years of Schoop and 1 year of Brach. Personally I wouldn't be looking at trading anymore prospects at this point, but if Attanasio has really gone into win-now mode, then I'd rather see Stearns approach a deal like this.

Archer would very likely command a 100+ million surplus value, Yelich-type of return package. Brinson was the one major piece in the minor league system, and it's questionable if the Brewers have the pieces left to swing this deal without emptying the entire top tier of their minor league system. I like Santana but find it extremely hard to believe he would be valued so highly that he could be considered a centerpiece in an Archer deal. Arcia would probably be under-valued because they likely see Willy Adames as their shortstop of the future. They could use corner infielders so Shaw may be valued properly by them and they could desire Thames although he probably only has about 20 million in surplus value (20 million is probably slightly less than 1/5th of what it takes to land Archer). Then the discussion has to turn to, can the Brewers afford to part with Shaw at this point? I don't think they can.

To this point the metrics show that Braun has been a better right fielder than Santana. Braun has played 2287 innings in right field and has a -9 DRS and a -7.6 UZR/150. Santana has played 1927 1/3 innings in right field and has a -15 DRS and a -11.8 UZR/150. All of Braun's innings except one occurred during his age 30 and 31 seasons, and he'll be in his age 34 season in 2018. Santana will be entering his age 25 season in 2018. Santana's defensive metrics were much improved from 2016 to 2017. His DRS improved from -8 to -5 (not innings adjusted and he played over twice as many innings in right field in 2017, so the improvement was much more dramatic than the raw number demonstrates), and the UZR/150 improved from -28.9 to -4.9.

Baseball America also updated their top 10 organizational prospect lists. A couple of months ago the Marlins were considered to have one of the weaker farm systems in Baseball. Isan Diaz showed up at #10 on their list. Diaz was #9 on the Brewer's list prior to the trade. Very interesting that he showed up lower in the Marlin's ranking. As far as the additions to the Brewer list - #8=Lutz, #9=Peralta, #10=Dubon.

Jumped the gun on both Vogt and Sogard.

Let's be honest ... with last week's moves, there is no way they go into the season with this rotation. Attanasio even said as much, saying they have the payroll flexibility to add a starter. I like Suter as a pitcher, and I think he's got a roll on the team. I think it's likely as a long man/injury replacement swing guy, though, or as rotation insurance at Colorado Springs. If that was the Cubs rotation, we'd all be sitting here saying Anderson's last 1 1/2 year run was a fluke and, even if it wasn't, that the guy has never even gotten to 153 major league innings in a single season. That comment would be followed with the idea that the rest of the starters are #4's and #5's. Still puzzled that the Brewers would make huge investments in outfielders, when the only real outfield problem was OBP out of centerfield and it was likely the richest talent area in the entire organization. Pitching was better than the hitting last year and certainly got the job done, but I don't blame outsiders one bit for throwing a little doubt in the direction of the pitching staff.

As hard as it is to believe, maybe it's even more likely Stearns thought he had a deal to move Braun. Yelich is best in left which is the spot Braun occupies. It's also much easier to add Cain's 16 million annual salary if all of Braun's remaining money is taken off the books. I can't find a single trade scenario with Braun that makes sense, but unexpected trades happen all the time and if one just steps back and looks at the additions of Yelich and Cain, the positions they are best at and all the money involved...it does make more sense that the Brewers could have had a deal lined up that included Braun instead of Santana.

First foul tip off the biceps = trip to 60 day DL. At least the Brewers would have another 40-man roster spot.

Have to admit that I've grown more cold on this deal since it went down. Love Yelich and the offensive skills he brings. I don't think it was an overpay by Milwaukee in any way. But I wouldn't have made this deal unless I already had a plan in place to move Braun to another team. Reviewed Braun's defensive plus/minus numbers from his 3B season and do not want to see him anywhere near a MLB infield unless he is holding a bat or running the bases. Braun still has a good enough bat where he needs to be in a lineup everyday. No question Yelich and Cain have quality bats, but a big part of the value they bring to a major league team is left field and centerfield defensive, respectively. It would be a real shame if the Brewers put Yelich in right field and his arm proved to play like Kris Davis' arm in left. And it would be a bigger shame if they eventually put Yelich in centerfield and moved Cain to right field. Also would point out that Braun is a career +24 DRS and -3.3 UZR/150 as a left fielder, but is a -9 DRS and -7.6 UZR/150 as a right fielder. Also should be noted that Braun's arm played at a -4 level in only 798 1/3 left field innings in 2017. So moving Braun to right field is also a significant downgrade. Really wish the Brewers could somehow dump Braun.

If the Brewers were holding their prospects, willing to wait to see how the team did the first three months and then make a big splash at the deadline if the team was competitive, and was currently sitting at about the 75 million mark in payroll...under those circumstances I'd definitely have interest in Herrera EVEN WITH THE POSSIBLE INJURY CONCERNS if the cost would be as I expect (couple fringe prospects and then eat his entire salary). But with the way things have developed over the last week, at this point I don't think Herrera makes any sense for Milwaukee.

I really thought the Brewers would stay under 95 million for the season's payroll and they still may since they are only around 90 million right now. Obviously they could end up going well past that if they pay significant money for one of the free agent starters. But the question remains, the Brewers may have 25 million more to spend but how likely is it that they would sink 9+ million dollars into a reliever coming off a mediocre season? From that perspective, I don't think Herrera is really a good fit for the Brewers. Herrera does look like a decent bounce-back candidate and I thought he was a solid Plan C type candidate a few weeks ago, but after making the investments in Cain and Yelich, I just don't know if the funds aspect make a investment in Herrera a smart move. Would throwing big money at a top starter make sense, yes it would if Attanasio is willing to have a 130 million dollar payroll in 2021. Would throwing a 2-year, 16 million dollar contract at Neal Walker make sense, yes it would because they still could use a higher OBP out of 2B. Would throwing nearly 9 million dollars at a reliever coming off an sub-par season make sense, I just don't know if that would be a wise investment for the Brewers since they are already at the 90 million mark?

Kind of agree on the K thing. Lots of people have talked about Yelich's low K rate, but Yelich's K rate really isn't that low. There were 287 batters that had 300+ plate appearances last year. Out of those 287, Yelich ranked #127 with a K rate of 19.7%. So he's in the top half, but not in the top 40%. That's not a real notable K rate IMO. I'd argue it had more to do with not making outs. Yelich #44 in and Cain #54 in OBP. That puts both in the top 20%.

Depends on how he is pitching at the time. Swarzak had the hot hand when the Brewers picked him up (2.23 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 1.03 WHIP). Herrera had a 4.25 ERA, 4.30 WHIP, 1.35 WHIP last season. If I'm the Royals I see three scenarios. I'm looking at 2018 as a lost season when considering the free agent losses, and obviously that plays heavily in how I approach Herrera. He is scheduled to make 7.94 million. #1 - Keep him and assume he pitches well. If so I pay him 5.3 million dollars for four months of work and then am able to trade him for a "top 10 organizational prospect" (Ray, Grisham, Peralta). Personally I really doubt that the Royals could get more than that for 2 months of work even if the guy is pitching absolute lights out. #2 - Trade him now and keep the 7.94 million dollars. Probably could get a role player prospect (Pennington) and fringe prospect (Brown) in return. #3 - Keep him and he repeats last year's performance, either meaning I can't trade him or can still deal him but only get a fringe prospect in return. At best I spend 5.3 million dollars and pick up a Zack Brown type prospect, at worst I can't move him and end up paying him the full 7.94 million. After thinking it over I'd still opt for #2.

I don't think there is any posturing going on in regards to Santana. He has some very good attributes (power, OBP) but has some very negative attributes as well (K%, defense). I still think he's a real wild card who could just keep doing what he did last year (solid 3+ WAR player) or could take a dramatic swing downward (probably still be a 1.5 WAR player because he'd still hit home runs and likely would maintain at least a respectable OBP). IMO he's one of the harder players to project going forward. Salazar is in the same boat but for different reasons. No question that when he's on the mound he is good. At least 10 major league starts in five years and his worst annual FIP is 3.74. But he's a risk in that his innings total could go up or down. If he's on the mound for 540 innings over the next three seasons, it's really hard to see the team that would trade for him being on the short end of stick. But if he's only on the mound for 250 innings, he'd be a disappointment for whoever acquired him. I still think this would be a deal that makes sense for both sides. Both sides fill a need, is trading from surplus and assumes more than normal risk IMO. Since Santana is controlled for one more season (at a minimal salary), Cleveland needs to add a little more to balance it out. However, if Santana had one more year of control and was in the same place as Salazar, I feel a straight-up deal would be fair for both sides. I still don't see Mejia as being a realistic piece in any Cleveland/Milwaukee deal and am surprised that people still want to go down that dead-end.

I agree with ewitkows and don't see Herrera commanding a big return. His salary gives him minimal (if any) surplus value, he only has one more year of team control and he had a 4.30 FIP last season. I think the best use of Herrera would be to use as a piece in a bigger trade in order to get it done (Duffy), but if the Royals aren't planning any big trades then it would make sense for them to flip Herrera for a minor return. If I'm in the Royals chair and the Brewers came calling, I would ask for Marcos Diplan and Josh Pennington but would probably settle for Josh Pennington and Zack Brown.

If the Rays would value Santana as a 2.5 WAR player over the next four seasons, then this would be a pretty fair deal and IMO it would take this type of package to land Archer. The only thing I really don't like from the Ray's perspective is that it includes two outfielders. Subtract out the minor league outfielder and adding Erceg probably makes more sense for the Rays. If Erceg is too high on the list then maybe substitute Dubon AND one of Bickford/Diplan/Medeiros.