JosephC

I like this trade for the Cardinals for the same reason I liked the Urias deal for the Brewers. Liberatore just has too much upside to pass on if you have a chance to get him. Arozarena could definitely be a sleeper, he doesn't have power and is probably under-valued in the homer-geared market. I've followed Liberatore and McClanahan (another Ray's lefty pitching prospect) since the draft, and there are people out there that question if Liberatore's fastball is really just sort of average and if that will end up limiting him more towards a mid-rotation type starter. But his curveball is reported to be so good, that I would still think his 50'ish ranking on top 100 lists is justified. And no, I don't like to hear about good curveball pitchers heading to St. Louis. Generally, that's a bad bad thing for typical Brewer lineups.

I was thinking Morrison was much more DH than 1B but his 1B metrics make him look about average defensively. But man has he been pitiful with the bat the last two years.

To no one's surprise, Tyler Biadasz is leaving early for the NFL Draft. Aron Cruickshank to transfer. Did not see that one coming. Probably didn't have much of a future as a pass-catcher, but this will be a huge special teams loss and possibly a "gadget" loss for the offense.

Of the 38 thirdbasemen listed, 26 were better than Dozier in QAA. No matter what his glove is well below the average 3B. How much is debatable. I would be worried with him at 3B, Hiura at 2B, and Braun at 1B. I can't figure out why anyone would be that concerned with 3B defense with Narvaez catching, Braun at first and Hiura at second. Already has the look of being a big defensive train-wreck.

... and that is why it wasn't targeting... Signed, Ryan Day and the OSU Nation P.S. See... the hit on Coan wasn't targeting either!!!! Told ya! Count me in as one who doesn't think a play like this should result in an ejection. Helmet to helmet contact, yes. But the Ohio State player is going full speed, is ducking his head IN ORDER TO GET LOW (NOT TO USE HIS HELMET AS A WEAPON), extending his arms with obvious intent to wrap up the quarterback...and the quarterback ducking, also trying to get low to protect himself. IMO it's a good example of inadvertent helmet to helmet contact. Want to throw a penalty on the play, fine. Eject a player for this, IMO it's a bad rule when that is the result. See the following link. This is what the targeting penalty should exist and in this case the offending player clearly deserved to be ejected. I also don't buy the argument that refs/replay officials have to make all these calls because they can't judge intent. That's nonsense. If someone can't see the difference in intent between these two plays, then they are blind as a bat.

I think the Trade Value site over-estimates Lutz value by about 5 - 7 million dollars. It seems they base all of his value on the Fangraphs evaluation and the Fangraphs assessment seems to be heavily based on exit velocity in pre-draft workouts and a big throwing arm. More recent Fangraphs reports state that Lutz bat control isn't very good and he doesn't display much speed in the outfield which really limits his defensive potential. I'm guessing he is downgraded in the next Fangraphs evaluation, and when that happens his ranking tumbles around the web. Of course, what really matters is front office opinions. My best guess is that teams still see upside, but his MiLB stats don't give the impression that he's going to be a true masher and that's what teams were hoping for with the pre-draft workout exit velocities. My guess is that most MLB front offices look at him as more of a back-end top 300 prospect. I'd probably put his surplus value in the range of 7.5 - 9.5 million.

The Dodgers had a 270+ million payroll in 2015, and are currently projected to have about a 173 million dollar opening day payroll in 2020. About a 100 million dollar cut. Why no articles stating, "The Dodgers have no excuse for this type of payroll reduction. So what if the Dodgers payroll is 220 million and then they have to spend about another 10 million in a luxury tax penalty? This is a team that generates nearly 550 million in revenue each season and has an operating income of nearly 100 million dollars annually."

Chris Chambers wasn't tall and lanky (5-11 1/2, 206) and Lee Evans wasn't rail thin (5-10 5/8, 197). Just by eye-balling Wisconsin receivers over the last 25 years, IMO Lee Evans is the top guy and nobody else is even close. He had over 2700 yards receiving and 22 touchdowns over the last 25 games played at Wisconsin. Any knock on his height wasn't really a huge factor when looking at the rest of his skill set which was pretty amazing. Speed, quickness, acceleration, balance, tracking the ball in the air, strong hands and exceptionally precise route runner. Absolute stud. Posted some pretty good numbers over his first 6 years in the NFL when considering the crap QBs he played with (a washed-up Drew Bledsoe and JP Losman who pretty much sucked). Evans was a top half of round one pick for good reason and I don't see Cephus being in that class.

I agree with you homer but the NFL no longer drafts player based on irrelevant things like strong hands and getting separation. His draft stock will almost solely be determined on a 40-yard dash time, a vertical jump number, a 3-cone drill time and his height/weight measurement. As the great Mike Sherman once famously said about a first round receiver draft pick "he has trouble catching the ball, but he has 10 1/2" hands so we'll teach him how to catch the ball." I could see Cephus going anywhere from round 2 to round 6, it all depends on the combine numbers. The Cole Van Lanen watch is now officially on.

Maybe I'm wrong about this? But wasn't the whole McCarthy and Gutekunst reporting directly to Murphy setup was so McCarthy could have more power? If so, I can't understand why he would want to be in Dallas (other than Jerry will pay him the most money, which could very well be the case)? He better be ready to take a lot of orders. People wonder why Garrett lasted so long in Dallas...it's because he was a total yes-man who dealt with Jerry's meddling because he just accepted it as part of the job. All I can say about McCarthy is (1) he better expect to have ZERO input on player personnel (2) he should only expect to hire about half of his coaching staff and the boss will dictate the rest (3) getting weekly feedback on his playcalling with "suggestions" for the next game (4) be a willing scapegoat after every loss because blame can't go any higher than that (can't fire the boss or his son).

Thank goodness Lotti is done. Horrible punter and a complete waste of a scholarship. Hard to believe with the size of the student body that the Badgers never held auditions and found somebody better.

Frankly, the officiating in that game was just odd. Ohio State goes up 16-0 and then there were a few questionable calls that looked like the officials were trying to keep Clemson in the game. It started with the targeting penalty which, IMO, was correct by the letter of the law but clearly at this point that rule needs to be adjusted (the Oklahoma player that tried to destroy an LSU receiver on a blindside block was a perfect example of why a targeting rule should and really needs to be in place; however, the "incidental" contact that occurs when two players are both trying to go low should not be targeting). The fumble that was returned for a TD...then ruled a no catch...was just an awful call and it's hard to believe stuff like that comes from replay. I like aspects of replay but that sort of stuff completely undermines the entire replay system. It was that bad. I might be inclined to say that Ohio State was completely robbed in that game, but they kicked too many field goals when they should have been scoring touchdowns early and Buckeye fans should be thinking about that just as much as bad officiating.

DRS is a "raw number." It is not a stat that compares a player to the average at his position. There are components within DRS, such as plus/minus, that compares ranges between players. But at it's "core," DRS is a raw number that provides a calculation for how many run a player prevents defensively (or contributes to the opposition if in the negative), just like wRC is a number that provides a calculation for how many runs a player contributes offensively.

LSU puts the backup quarterback, running backs and pass catchers in. 9 plays, 75 yards, touchdown. Backups looked much more motivated than the starters did in the third quarter.

It was obvious in the first quarter that LSU could put 80 points on the board if they could stay truly motivated for a full 60 minutes. Looks like they have already taken the foot off the gas pedal. 617 yards of offense and still in the third quarter. All the playoff folks out there should throw out all their plans and figure out how to make a three team playoff, because there were really only 3 teams worthy this year. Big 12 should be ineligible the playoff until the conference figures out that defense does matter...at least a little bit.

It's never a good idea to throw out advanced metrics, especially with someone like Seager who has played his entire career in one of the more pitcher friendly stadiums in MLB. A .304 OBP/.740 OPS might look ugly on the surface, but it's still essentially league average (101 OPS+) once you consider Kyle's home park. As for the glove, a run saved is just as valuable as a run scored. Last year JD Davis posted a 136 wRC+ with -9.0 defense for 2.4 WAR. Seager posted a 110 wRC+ with +8.3 defense for 2.4 WAR. A run created is the same as a run saved. But what percentage of a third baseman's opportunity to create/save runs comes from the bat? I'll take Arenado as an example as he has the reputation as currently being the best two way third baseman. Over the last three years Arenado's wRC's are 126, 120, 124 for a total of 370. His DRS for those three seasons are 20, 5, 8 for a total of 33. So if wRC and DRS are to be believed, approximately 93% of Arenado's runs created/runs saved contribution comes from his bat. Doing the same for Seager, his three year wRC numbers are 82, 60, 60 for a total of 202. His DRS numbers at third base are actually on the negative side: -2, -5, -1. So not only does all of his contributions come from a pretty mediocre bat, but the DRS figures raise a pretty good question as to how good his defense really is. His grand total after adding everything together is 194. For comparison, lets compare Seager to Shaw over three years as to even include Shaw's 2019 disaster. Shaw's wRC = 94, 86, 17. The 3B DRS = 3, 9, 3. Total = 212. Shaw's raw runs created/runs saved figure over the last three years is better than Seagers. I just think caution needs to be exercised when looking at average hitting corner players and then potentially overvaluing them based on their defensive contribution. Heyward is a prime example of that and I think Seager definitely could fall into the same category. I'd have no problem paying good money to a average hitting catcher, shortstop or centerfielder that brings a premium glove. But third baseman, the guy needs to hit much better if I'm making a 17+ million dollar annual commitment.

The media is projecting Berger to Rutgers and Lancaster, TX running back Kevontre Bradford to Wisconsin.

I think the chances of Seager being traded to the Brewers or anyone else is very small because of the option year. Seattle has been more than willing to eat significant chunks of money to clear payroll from their roster (Mike Leake, Edwin Encarnacion, Robinson Cano)...and yet Seager remains on the roster. I don't think anybody in baseball is interested in seeing the 2022 season turning from no obligation into a 15 million dollar year. I also think Seager is one of those players where it's actually helpful to throw out all the advanced metrics and just go old-school. Over the last three years he's been a .236/.304/.436/.740 hitter. He will be entering his age 32 season. 17.333 million per season obligation over three years for a .304 OBP/.740 OPS? Steamer is projecting Seager as a 2.4 WAR player in 2021, but the offensive component of that is 0.0 and the defensive component is 3.6...so almost all of his value comes from defense...corner infield defense (not centerfield, not shortstop, not catcher). For years I've heard Brewer fans rag on the Cubs for the Jason Heyward contract (appropriately so IMO), and I fail to see how different Seager would be? Clearly a big contract for what is now a defense first, mediocre offense corner player. Over the next three years the Cubs will be paying Heyward about an additional 4 million per season over what Seager would make, but Heyward still can get on base at a decent clip (.334 OPS over the last three seasons), has the flexibility to move and play centerfield if needed (although not very well) and is 1.5+ years younger than Seager.

Russell's best asset is his glove at shortstop. Doesn't seem like a fit at 3B at all. If picking him up, the only sensible thing to do would be putting him at shortstop and bumping Urias to 3B, and it's probably pretty unlikely that the Brewers would want to do that.

Board speculation. There were reports a couple weeks ago that the Mets were asking about Lindor but were refusing to include McNeil in a Lindor trade. If the Mets were not willing to include McNeil in a Lindor trade, it seems pretty unlikely that they would including him in a trade for Hader. It's probably safe to say that McNeil is off the board as far as Milwaukee is concerned.

I wonder where Asdrubal Cabrera is with his contract demands? Switch hitter with pretty even splits from the left and right side. Has been remarkably consistent with the bat in the last few seasons. Declining defensively but the metrics make it look like he'd probably be about league average at third. Probably can't play second for an extended amount of time, but with the current roster construction (Hiura and Urias) that doesn't appear to be an issue. And maybe most desirable of all, he just might have enough veteran grit to motivate Counsell not to put Sogard in the lineup every single day. If Cabrera is down to 1 year, 6 million or somewhere around there...then he'd be my 3B pick.

No matter which lineup you choose, it would be one of the weakest in baseball. 6-8 is horrible either way. So far in his major league career, Urias has been a .371/.397/.557/.954 hitter against lefties. Small sample size but I think the Brewers will probably feel good about him hitting against lefties right out of the gate. He's been pretty dreadful against righties though, a puny .166/.293/.249/.542 slash line. Pina was crazy good against lefties last year (.964 OPS), over the last three years he's been a .335 OBP/.748 OPS hitter against lefties which is fine for the bottom of the lineup. Sogard generally hits lefties better than righties. Over the last three years he's slashed .266/.343/.456/.799 off of lefties, which if he could repeat would be excellent for a #8 hitter. The lineup does concern me against righties as I don't think the bottom of that lineup is nearly as good. Also have more concerns with Cain at the top of the lineup against right handed pitchers. He had nearly identical OBP's against lefties and righties last year but historically has been a bit better against lefties. If he tails off at the top of the lineup again and the bottom of the order struggles, I could see this team having some trouble scoring runs off of right handed pitchers with the current roster.

I had not checked the BaseballTradeValue site prior to doing the above...used my own calculations/estimates and in some trades had the Brewers getting slightly better value and in some had the opposition getting slightly better value. All except for the Yankees because I think the Brewers would get less from them because of the way they operate (still sour on the failed Cameron deal). But I did go look now and was surprised the Brewers were the surplus value winners in all five of the projections, something that I wouldn't agree with. Here are the BaseballTradeValue summaries. Note that I just made a fringe prospect = 1 million. Hader = 48.3 million Dodgers = 70.1 million Phillies = 58.7 million Diamondbacks = 55.4 million Yankees = 52.8 million Mets = 50.4 million Dodgers are so much more because I think they have values 5-7 million too high on both Ruiz and Gonsolin...and then I included a bit extra from them because they would just be giving up blocked pieces in the deal. I'd have the Yankees number way lower because, while I'd accept the generous number they put on Andujar...Clarke Schmidt's number is way higher than it should be.

I just don't see Braun getting enough outfield starts to even categorize him as an outfielder anymore. C = Narvaez, Pina IF = Braun, Smoak, Hiura, Urias, Arcia, Sogard OF = Yelich, Cain, Garcia, Gamel, Taylor I'd guess Taylor's glove claims the last spot over Healy's bat, which wouldn't be surprising at all considering Healy's bat has sucked the last couple of seasons. Although that last add will not be someone like Donaldson, I'd expect one more bat will be added to push Taylor/Healy off the 25-man. And knowing how stubborn Counsell can be with the lineup (see Braun in the #3 spot early last season), I'm not anticipating Counsell will do much altering of the #1/#2 spots through the first 6-8 weeks of the season other than the planned days off. And yes, I am expecting to see a ton of Sogard unless someone else is added because it's just a given that Counsell will want to play him as much as possible. My guess as to what Counsell will do with what is on the 40 man roster right now. versus righties 1. CF-Cain 2. LF-Yelich 3. 2B-Hiura 4. RF-Garcia 5. C-Narvaez 6. 1B-Smoak 7. 3B-Sogard 8. SS-Urias versus lefties 1. CF-Cain 2. LF-Yelich 3. 2B-Hiura 4. 1B-Braun 5. RF-Garcia 6. SS-Urias 7. C-Pina 8. 3B-Sogard

I kind of question all the "best reliever in baseball" thoughts about Hader. Needless to say, there really is no definitive measure for relievers. However, I'll do a 5 minute evaluation over the last two years of ERA, FIP, xFIP data. Went to Fangraphs, selected relief pitchers, combined stats for 2018 and 2019 only, needed a minimum amount of 100 innings pitched for those two seasons. Took the top 20 in each of the three categories, ERA, FIP, xFIP…#1 in each category got 20 points all the way down to 1 point for finishing 20th. Then added up the point totals for all three categories. Here are the results, first number is point total and the next three numbers are the ERA/FIP/xFIP numbers for 2018-2019. 1. Kirby Yates, 57, 1.67/1.93/2.45 2. Aroldis Chapman, 51, 2.33/2.19/2.73 3. Felipe Vazquez, 49, 2.22/2.30/2.86 4. Ryan Pressly, 47, 2.44/2.55/2.42 5. Josh Hader, 44, 2.52/2.65/2.20 6. Will Harris, 34, 2.47/2.80/2.91 7. Taylor Rogers, 33, 2.62/2.59/2.89 8. Will Smith, 32, 2.66/2.71/2.75 9. Edwin Diaz, 28, 3.56/2.89/2.35 10. Colin McHugh, 24, 2.21/2.94/3.56 11. Ken Giles, 24, 3.22/2.67/3.00 12. Seth Lugo, 23, 2.50/2.83/3.40 As a side note, I think the guys at #6 and #10 are still sitting out there as free agents and the Brewers could use some more bullpen help.