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JosephC

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Everything posted by JosephC

  1. JosephC
    I don't think any of this is true and if you do, I believe you have severely overestimated your ability to interpret the mindset of a professional athlete. I mean, do the opposing players forget to be intimidated when Hader blows games? The guy is a good pitcher but so are lots of other guys and I doubt most hitters are intimidated by any of them or they wouldn't be where they are. A rising tide raises all ships and improving the team is improving the team. The rest of that is simply opinion. Last year there were 31 MLB pitchers that had 14 saves or more. I would have just gone with 30 MLB pitchers, 1 for each team, but there was a 3 way tie for 29th which pushed the number of pitchers included to 31. Those 31 players saved 789 games and blew 147 save opportunities. So they were successful 84.3% of the time. Josh Hader saved 37 games and blew 7 save opportunities. So he was successful 84.1% of the time. Out of the 31 players with 14 or more saves, Hader finished 17th in save percentage. Why would an opposing hitter be intimidated? Because Hader might strike them out? I don't think the modern day MLB hitter worries all that much about that. Just because Hader is in a game late, it does not mean the game is over and evidenced by the numbers above.
  2. JosephC
    There were a bunch of guys I liked in last year's Rule 5 (Richie Martin, Drew Jackson, Jordan Romano), but I didn't find any of those guys this year. Seemed like kind of a weak field to me.
  3. JosephC
    You have to be extremely high on Dominguez to even do a deal with the Yankees. Knowing the way that Cashman operates he will try to unload a pile of trash for Hader and to be honest I really don't want to help that team win anything. I am very high on Dominguez and wouldn't mind seeing the Brewers do a deal based around him. Dominguez, Kahnle, Schmidt is the starting point and then tack some more player(s) on top of that. However, my gut feeling is that Dominguez would be the one minor leaguer the Yankees would completely take off the board. I proposed a Yankee deal on the previous page, but personally would not do that deal. I think it's fair to significantly downgrade Aguilar because of the medicals.
  4. JosephC
    It's likely that Noah would throw more innings over his two years of control than Josh would over his four. Now of course, Hader's innings have been of a higher quality & come almost entirely in only the highest leverage spots, so the Mets would have to include one of Davis/Smith & more to even it out. If you want an established "ace" in return for Josh, I don't see us getting one that has equal or more control, just based on the volume difference between SP/RP. If Hader is dealt I would imagine that Stearns & company go for as much team control as possible in return. I still don't think Lux is going anywhere, but something like Ruiz/Gray from LAD plus a couple low level fliers the scouting/analytics department likes makes the most sense to me. If the Dodgers aren't willing to include Lux then no deal. Let them flop in the playoffs another few years. Just like Hader did in the playoffs this year.
  5. JosephC
    I'd guess a Hader trade would look more like this: Dodgers get - Josh Hader Brewers get - C-Keibert Ruiz, RHP-Tony Gonsolin, 1B-Edwin Rios, another fringe prospect Yankees get - Josh Hader Brewers get - 3B-Miguel Andujar, RHP-Tommy Kahnle, RHP-Clarke Schmidt, another fringe prospect Mets get - Josh Hader Brewers get - 3B-Jeff McNeil, 1B-Dominic Smith, LHP-Justin Wilson
  6. JosephC
    I'm starting to think there is a pretty good chance that Hader is traded and is dealt at "fair market value." Just thinking back to this past-offseason when the Giants put Bumgarner on the market and then removed him a few days later (apparently because they put a sky-high price-tag on him). The Hader chatter has been going on too long, and enough teams are reported to be interetested to make me think that Stearns isn't shooting for the moon.
  7. JosephC
    Wasn't 10 million his arbitration estimate? Would think the Dodgers would have traded the A's a nothing prospect to put Treinen on their roster and keep him off the market where someone else might have snagged him. I wanted Treinen but wouldn't have gone nearly this high for him.
  8. JosephC
    I wonder if spin rate really means anything? It always gets thrown out when talking about someone like Verlander, but is there any real correlation between spin rate and success? I just did a quick search at Baseball Savant, and if I am using the search engine correctly, the MLB pitcher with the highest spin rate on 4-seam fastballs in MLB last year (minimum 300 pitches) was CORBIN BURNES at a remarkable 2656 rpm. #2 = Jose Leclerc, #3 = Mike Minor, #4 = Lucas Sims, #5 = Felipe Vazquez. There are some big names near the top....#8 = Verlander, #11 = Cole, #12 = Darvish...but there is a Phil Maton or a Jesse Biddle mixed in with every good name on the list. There are a ton of fields in the search engine so I could very well be screwing something up.
  9. JosephC
    If I'm the Red Sox, I'd see Benintendi as a key piece moving forward (even with the sub-par year in 2019) and wouldn't be interested in moving him. Playing GM for Boston, this would be my first offer to Milwaukee: Milwaukee gets: David Price Michael Chavis Thad Ward 5 million dollars paid in 2021 10 million dollars paid in 2022 Red Sox get: Carlos Rodriguez I think the Trade Value website has Price as a bit more of a negative than he really is. They have -60 million, I'd put him more around -47.5 million.
  10. JosephC
    Mazara has been a significant disappointment IMO. Don't blame the White Sox for making this move, probably are hoping that a change of scenery does Mazara good, but so far he's been a very mediocre player.
  11. JosephC
    Cozart was an awful signing by the Angels. Wonderful example of making a bad decision on one year of numbers and ignoring the long track record that came before it. Sure, if you sign him as a shortstop and get his usual excellent defense then you can live with a disappointing offensive performance. But signing him as a third baseman, minimizing his defensive contribution and then thinking he was going to provide legitimate "third base offense" was an act of sheer folly. It would be hilarious if they traded their first rounder to create luxury tax room and then ended up missing out on Cole (already), Rendon and Donaldson.
  12. JosephC
    I sure can understand why people would not like Gausman. He really has been a career underachiever when looking at his raw stuff. I would have put a 2 year, 13 million dollar offer in front of him and then he would have had to pick between going into free agency again next year (could be a big payout, but his stock could also drop with a poor season) or take the extra guaranteed 4 million and have that money in the bank. I'm guessing at worst he'd be a #4...but could prove to be much better if he turns out to be a late bloomer. He was a guy I would have been willing to take a chance on. Overall the contract would have been pretty similar to Chacin's deal, obviously there was one great year and one bad year in that deal. No question the great year made the bad year much easier to take. But even if Chacin had been mediocre over both years of this deal, this one would have been forgotten shortly into the future because it just didn't represent a huge payroll commitment. We'd be talking roughly 5.5% of a 120 million dollar payroll here, IMO that's a reasonable figure to roll the dice on a player like Gausman.
  13. JosephC
    I think that can be answered here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-gerrit-cole-went-from-so-so-to-unhittable/ His spin rate spiked upward the last two seasons, and he also targeted the upper part of the strike zone with more frequency. LOL, when Verlander retires the Brewers should pay him 10 million per year to be the pitching coach because the spin rate of all those pitchers that go to Houston jumps right through the roof. Verlander is the best pitching coach in MLB today.
  14. JosephC
    From what I've read, it sounds like the Pirates have/had a "pitch to contact" philosophy and the Astros convinced Cole to rely more on his 4-seam to try to miss bats. The results speak for themselves. Anybody have any idea what the spin rate of his fastball has done since he moved from Pittsburgh to Houston?
  15. JosephC
    Is free agency still broken?
  16. JosephC
    You can't be serious, right?? They need a LEGIT #2 at worst, none of those guys are even solid #4's. How do any of them improve the rotation significantly?? They might as well light their money on fire. I think Alex Wood could be legitimate #2 material if he ever was fully healthy. But that's the problem...the guy is never fully healthy. We'll have to wait to see how Taijuan Walker comes back from injury...wouldn't be that surprising to see him reach #2 status.
  17. JosephC
    I was under the impression that the Yankees sole purpose is to move ALL of Happ's salary for luxury tax purposes. Then factor in the vesting option and it makes it very difficult to get done. Kind of a shame as I think Happ could be an excellent bounce-back candidate. He didn't have a good year last year but was a 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.91 FIP, 3.2 K/BB pitcher in 518 innings from 2016-2018.
  18. JosephC
    With that attitude, wouldn't all of professional and major college sports be pointless? What's the point of game #107 in a 162 game Brewer schedule? What was the point of that crap-fest Packer/Redskin game last weekend? What's the point of the NBA, NHL, NCAA men's basketball regular season? What's the point of being really good baseball team, say winning 110 games in the regular season, only to have that all wiped away like it meant nothing and then run into an 87-win team that just happens to have two hot pitchers, and then be KO'ed and be recognized as the inferior team over a handful of games after a full season clearly demonstrated that the 110 win team was the better team? What's the point?
  19. JosephC
    LOL at any offensive player from the Big 12 getting nominated for the Heisman. Voters still too dumb to figure out that they do not play defense in that league. Taylor can get his revenge by returning to Wisconsin and setting the all-time college football rushing record...a record that would make him immortal and could stand for a long, long, long time. That is unlikely to happen (the part about him going back to school), but all Wisconsin-ite's would love to see it happen. Maybe the boosters will save up enough pennies to pay the premium on an insurance policy so large that he wouldn't have to worry about getting hurt at all. We all can dream.
  20. JosephC
    Look at Strasburg's history of missing 2 starts here, missing 8 starts here, missing 6 starts here. He hits the free agent year and...boom...33 starts and 209 innings pitched. Over the last seven seasons, Strasburg has averaged 169 2/3 innings pitched. I'll put the over/under for average number of innings pitched per season by Strasberg over the next seven seasons at 130. 130 innings per season...let's see how many people want to play this game...over or under?
  21. JosephC
    ? What did they think Claudio was going to ask for in arbitration in order to non-offer him and risk losing him in free agency? Seems like a really petty move to save an estimated 450k (which represents a piddly 0.375% of a 120 million dollar payroll). I wonder what Ryan Buchter will get? They are obviously staying in the lefty specialist game, and I'd take Buchter over Claudio if you are going to have one of these guys on the 25-man roster.
  22. JosephC
    One thing everyone has to admit about the Big 10, the conference generally has a very tough bowl schedule and this year is no exception. Ohio State/Clemson Wisconsin/Oregon Penn State/Memphis Michigan/Alabama Minnesota/Auburn Iowa/Southern California Indiana/Tennessee Michigan State/Wake Forest Illinois/California Penn State gets stuck with the one non-Power Five. But to think the four and fifth "seeds" get Alabama and Auburn, and Iowa has to play Southern California (who is also ranked).
  23. JosephC
    Flores has early onset arthritis in both of his knees. From the talk at the end of the 2018 season, it sounds like it is a pretty serious concern already.
  24. JosephC
    Stewart Mandel of The Athletic is projecting Wisconsin to wind up in the Cotton Bowl....against Memphis. Yuck! I'd rather not get the "New Year's Six Bowls" bid and rather go to the Citrus and play an SEC team.
  25. JosephC
    Clemson is going to kick the snot out of Virginia. Wisconsin will not win. Only thing that makes the playoff fun is that Alabama is out. But more of the same ole'. Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma.
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