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JosephC

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Everything posted by JosephC

  1. JosephC
    So he plays there 4 or 5 times a week? What is the plan with Braun? Will Braun become the first LF/1B utility man in the history of MLB?
  2. JosephC
    They have pretty good youth and depth at cornerback and I wasn't really anticipating they would do that much there. Rivals has them down for three WRs in this class so we'll have to see how those guys develop. I do think that is a potential problem area based on fall practices this year. I know when the season started the coaches really liked the top 4 but really wanted the scholarship players in that next tier (Abbott, Mustapha, Perry, Cruickshank) to step up and none of them did. Dunn and Krumholz ended up as #5 and #6 and were never remotely challenged for those spots, which doesn't bode well for all the guys that were further down the list. So out of the three they brought in for this class, it's pretty important that one or two of those guys become good players because there could be significant issues at WR down the line. And then there still is Bracey from last year's class...didn't hear much about him but that is to be expected as he was an automatic redshirt with Cephus, Taylor, Davis and Pryor.
  3. JosephC
    If Seager is traded the option year becomes a player option (likely guaranteed year with age/production decline). 3 year average bWAR/fWAR for Seager is 2.3. Steamer is projecting him at 2.4 WAR for 2020. If one starts with the three year average and then uses the 0.5 WAR/season decrease based on age, that makes him a 2.3, 1.8, 1.3 WAR player over the next three years. At 9 million per WAR, that makes his value 48.6 million. He will make 52 million over those three seasons, so I have him in negative value territory (-3.4 million). I'm guessing the consensus around MLB front offices would have him being even more of a negative, although I think the -21.8 listed on the tradevalue site is excessive. More reasonable trade with be Seager + cash for a fringe prospect....the variable in this being the amount of cash headed to Milwaukee. It would likely have to be a pretty big chunk, as Seager makes 19 million in 2020 and I'm guessing the limit is not allowing Stearns to add another 19 million to the 2020 payroll.
  4. JosephC
    No. Attanasio has cut the payroll and Stearns is trying to stockpile lower cost players and win through quantity rather than quality.
  5. JosephC
    I'm starting to believe that Attanasio has indeed cut payroll which makes taking on 20 million of salary-dump contracts as a complete impossibility (and another 10 million in 2021 since Familia still has two years left on his deal).
  6. JosephC
    After reviewing some arbitration numbers, I've probably credited Bell with about 5 million more than what he'll actually earn. Subtract that and his surplus value goes from 20 million to 25 million. That assumes he's worth 6 WAR (2 WAR per season) over the next 3 years. Steamer has an interesting projection on Archer. Check out the average bWAR/fWAR for Archer over the last three seasons: 2017 = 3.0 2018 = 1.8 2019 = 0.7 Three year average = 1.8 For some reason, Steamer is projecting Archer as a 3.0 WAR player for 2020. I'm not buying that. I'll take the three year average and project that number for Archer for both 2020 and 2021. I'd put the surplus values in this trade as follows: Bell = 25 million Archer = 12.4 million Bae = 5.5 million Total = 42.9 million Lutz = 9.4 million Ray = 7.4 million Total = 16.8 million
  7. JosephC
    So I've been looking at more commentary about Bell from around the net, and there were numerous comments about how uneven he was in last year's breakout campaign. He slashed .390/.442/.797/1.239...12 HR, 31 RBI in May alone. He slashed .233/.351/.429/.780...10 HR, 32 RBI after the All-Star break. Nothing wrong with a .780 OPS but, on the other hand, that's nothing special for a first baseman. The more I read, the more the <2 WAR projections moving forward are justified.
  8. JosephC
    When you take into account the 1B/DH market is over saturated with similar talent it is actually correct. You can laugh at the value for Bell but the free agent and trade market has more 1B/DH types than there is demand for them. The Pirates will be lucky to get one top 100 prospect for Bell in this market. Based on my numbers, I see Bell's surplus value being nearly identical to Brice Turang's value, and Turang is probably right on the back end of the top 100.
  9. JosephC
    IMO the more significant number would be innings. Miley has thrown 765 innings over the last five years, Anderson with only 503. Anderson was a top prospect, slotted into the A's rotation in 2009 and made 30 starts. Since that time, over the last 10 seasons, he's only hit the 20 start mark two times. Over those 10 years he's only averaged 82 innings per season. That's easily my biggest concern with Anderson. I like the fact that Stearns brought in a ground ball pitcher, which could be a good fit for Miller Park. Low K total really doesn't concern me too much. But the guy isn't helping the team if he is on the DL, and that has been a major problem for Anderson throughout his entire career.
  10. JosephC
    There is a chance that there is language in the contract that Garcia doesn't get the buyout if he walks away from the third year. But that is pretty unlikely. Both Grandal and Moustakas had mutual options in their contracts for 2020, both of these players walked away from the deal, and Milwaukee will pay Grandal 2.25 million and Moustakas 3 million this season. It's safe to say that Garcia's 2 million buyout for 2022 is guaranteed.
  11. JosephC
    My first choice would be Jung Ho Kang.
  12. JosephC
    Thanks for posting this Clancy. Really gained some knowledge on Josh Bell based on this post. At first glance, I could only laugh at the surplus value assigned to Josh Bell and assumed his number should be way up...40+ million easy. However, I went back and looked at his recent seasonal fWAR/bWAR values and over the last two years he's only been, on average, a 1.8 bWAR/fWAR player per season. 2019 was much better than 2018, so maybe that was his breakthrough year and he'll continue to be a solid 2.5-3 WAR player from this point forward, but Steamer is only projecting him as a 1.9 WAR player in 2020. So then looking at the salary end. Bell is entering arbitration but has put up big numbers in the categories that arbitrator look at HR and RBI. So while a player like Whit Merrifield gets ridiculously penalized because he doesn't post big numbers in those categories, a player like Bell probably will benefit more than he should. He's projected to make 5.9 million next year but I have a feeling that number could end up being a bit higher than that. I wouldn't put Bell's estimated surplus value at a low number of 9.7 million. But surprisingly, I would only put the number at 20 million, less than half of what I would have anticipated going in.
  13. JosephC
    It's already been brought up, but in 2017 Garcia slashed .330/.380/.506/.885 but a very high .392 BABIP certainly helped that. His combined slash line from 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019 is only .257/.309/.411/.720 which is poor for a corner outfielder. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. I believe he will hit in Miller Park. But frankly, based on the last five years, he had good offensive stats in two of those seasons and rather poor offensive stats in the other three seasons.
  14. JosephC
    Garcia broke into MLB in 2012 and has only hit the 550 PA mark two times. He became a full time player in 2015 and over the last five years has averaged 466 PA per season.
  15. JosephC
    Florida State have not been printing depth charts in their weekly game notes (?), but based on the weekly stat sheets it looks like Hornibrook was third string behind James Blackmon and Jordan Travis.
  16. JosephC
    I'm surprised at the price. MLB trade rumors projected 2 year, 12 million McDaniel at Fangraphs projected 1 year, 10 million Crowdsource at Fangraphs projected 2 years, 13 million Bowden projected 2 years, 17 million Average comes out to 1 year, 8 million or 2 years, 14 million. Seems like a pretty high price considering the number of games he's missed over the past few seasons. Over the last four years he's had a seasonal average of 1.9 bWAR and 1.6 fWAR. Steamer is projecting him at 1.2 WAR for 2020. Small market team shelling out 10 million per season for what could be a <1.5 WAR player seems excessive. The bat is probably OK, but time missed and rate of defensive decline could be the two factors that will either make Garcia worth it or not worth it.
  17. JosephC
    I would have liked to see the Brewers bring back Gonzalez...if Counsell didn't pull him so quickly in games. I understand the second and third time through the order stuff (to the extent that I am a proponent of the 60-60-60), but Counsell just didn't see to have any confidence in Gonzalez considering the quick hook he had with him. I can understand it for many of the younger pitchers, and I think Counsell is definitely one of the finest managers in MLB, but his early hooks on Gonzalez were a bit ridiculous IMO. To the point where if I was Gonzalez I would probably prefer to pitch somewhere else.
  18. JosephC
    We are probably in the stage of the Brewers having made their final offer and Garcia's agent is circling back round to the Marlins and Rays to see if they are still interested.
  19. JosephC
    Usually games played is the first thing I check. Wasn't aware that Garcia has only averaged 119 games played over the last four years, the high mark being 136 games in 2017. Last two years the average has been 109 games. And there are still some really ugly seasonal OBP's on that stat sheet... .281 in 2018, .307 in 2016. Steamer is projecting him as a .273/.327/.464/.791 hitter in 2020...look at last year and then the 2020 projection and it sure seems like this guy would be a bargain, and then you look at all the other stuff and it seems there is good reason why this guy will probably be playing on a 1 year, 7 million OR 2 year, 13 million dollar contract.
  20. JosephC
    There was a report about 10 days ago that the Diamondbacks put Ray on the market and the asking price had come down to reasonable levels. Who knows what happened? Maybe the Diamondbacks approached Ray with a contract extension and he declined, so now they are willing to put him on the market and take a full year of return instead of the two month's return that they would get for him if they waited until the end of July. Or else they figured they would win the Bumgarner bidding which might make Ray a spare piece in their eyes. Bumgarner is their #1. Leake never misses a start so he's a reliable back-of-the-rotation piece. Weaver was pitching at the end of last year and looking good, not crazy to think that they would consider him their #2 (most would probably agree that he'll be better than Bumgarner if healthy). They made the Zac Gallen trade which was a fairly significant move that went under the radar, he pitched to a 2.81 ERA/3.61 FIP last year so he has the makings of a solid #3. So Bumgarner/Weaver/Gallen/Leake and then they would have Merrill Kelly (32 starts, 4.42 ERA/4.51 FIP) and Alex Young (15 starts, 3.56 ERA/4.81 FIP) to compete for the last spot, the loser of that still is a pretty decent insurance policy. Former top prospect Jon Duplantier is probably viewed as another insurance policy. They have enough depth to make this move.
  21. JosephC
    I'd go with Donaldson. Only played in 113 games in 2017 and 53 in 2018, but I still trust his health much more than Ryu.
  22. JosephC
    Have to wonder at this point if the 10.8 million he's projected to get in arbitration would actually be the prohibiting factor?
  23. JosephC
    Stearns is probably hoping for Dominguez, Andujar and a fringe prospect and, if so, I think he's wasting his time. IMO that would be a fair deal. However, I just have the feeling that the Yankees are not going to trade Dominguez. I still think the best deal the Brewers would get out of the Yankees would be something like Andujar, Kahnle, Schmidt and a fringe prospect. I'm hoping Stearns moves on from that.
  24. JosephC
    LOL, I guess Rasmussen's surplus value is back up to 100 million.
  25. JosephC
    I'm not reading through the last 8 pages, so forgive me if this has already come up. Brett Anderson is a ground-baller. That is really his only positive. While I've been all for bringing in a ground-ball pitcher.... Ryan Braun...will be terrible defensively at first Keston Hiura...will be terrible defensively at second Luis Urias or Orlando Arcia...while Arcia has the tools to be first rate, it's more than likely either of these guys will play below average defense at shortstop 3B...??? And then after the infield bungles a ground ball Narvaez...may the the worst defensive catcher in baseball Again, I've been all for bringing ground ball pitchers into Miller Park for the last couple of years, but now a ground-ball pitcher just doesn't seem like a good match with the hideous defense the Brewers are likely to sport on the infield.
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