JosephC

Thankfully Thames had a home run last night. Have to admit in being extremely disappointed since he became a "regular" which appears to have happened on May 19. Since that time he's posted a .241/.267/.345/.612 slash line, which was much uglier prior to the home run. Thames has to get it geared up over the next few weeks, or Aguilar has to show some signs of life in his opportunities, or Shaw needs to get it going in AAA and then get back up to Milwaukee and get the job done (Shaw at 1B, Hiura at 2B, Moustakas at 3B). More and more it looks like 1B might be a legitimate need, which would be very disappointing because it would mean that 3 players completely fell flat to create the situation.

Ray definitely has value right now, but it's currently dipped because of the poor start and injury. I think if he was healthy and performing at an "average" level in AAA (say something like .235/.320/.460/.780), then the majority of MLB teams probably would view him as a #90 type player (surplus value = 22.5 million). But in the current situation, I'd guess that his average ranking if polling MLB teams would put him in the #150 range (surplus value = 17.1 million). So if you are Stearns, do you want to sell low on him now, and hold him and wait for him to get healthy and see if he can build on the 27 HR/37 SB season he had last year? If I'm Stearns, Ray is basically off the board for this reason. If some other team was willing to give back 22.5 million in surplus value, I'd be willing to trade Ray. But I don't think those offers would be forthcoming with the current situation. Also worth noting: Madison Bumgarner- bWAR = 2016 = 4.8, 2017 = 3.1, 2018 = 2.4, 2019 = 0.2 (projects to 0.6 over full season) fWAR = 2016 = 4.3, 2017 = 1.6, 2018 = 1.2, 2019 = 1.2 (projects to 3.6 over full season) Biggest WAR number one can get is taking Fangraphs current 1.2 WAR and pro-rating that over a full season. That would put him as being worth 2.4 WAR for the rest of this season. However, run prevention would definintely not support that high of a number (ERA currently 4.01), and there is not one other single number from 2017 forward that would support 2.4 WAR in value (for 2/3s of a season). Taking full season projections for 2019 and then adding in 2017 and 2018 numbers, Bumgarner is a 2.1 bWAR/fWAR pitcher. Since 2/3rds of the season is left, IMO a solid estimate for Bumgarner for the rest of 2019 would be 1.4 WAR. At 9 million per WAR that would be 12.6 million in value - 8 million salary for remainder of season = 4.6 million in surplus value. Even if one takes the most optimistic number, the 2.4 WAR I noted above, that would put his surplus value at 13.6 million. IMO, even the most optimistic number for Bumgarner does not put his value at a depressed surplus value for Ray, although it is in the ballpark and would be reasonable (Ray = 17.1 million, Bumgarner = 13.6 million).

So the Brewers have 9 picks in the first 10 rounds. Even though I think that first pick will be a bat, I'd guess 6 of the first 9 picks are pitchers. Anybody else care to take a guess of the hitter/pitcher breakdown of the first 9 picks?

Bumgarner has been such a big part of that franchise that I don't necessarily think it would be that bad of a deal for the Giants to re-sign him as long at the length of deal and money are reasonable. Oracle Park is a perfect fit for him, and it's not out of line to think that he could continue to be a 2.5 WAR pitcher in that environment. This season he's sitting at 9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9, so it's not like his skills have eroded to the point where he can't be a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher over the next 3-4 years. I don't think a 3 year, 62 million dollar deal with an option year tacked on (4 million buyout) would be unreasonable at all. One has to remember, this is a team that has comfortably operated at 180 million in payroll. He could get hurt and it could turn out to be a disaster but the same can be said about any pitcher. My guess is, if he'd disappoint, it would be at the level that Braun has disappointed over the length of his last extension. Maybe a disappointment, but there has been enough good mixed in there where it certainly does not rate as a disaster. My biggest concerns with Bumgarner is what happens if he is no longer pitching 1/2 of his games at Oracle Park.

I'd put the prospect surplus value of Turang and Ashby at 18.7 million and 4 months of Rendon's surplus value at 23.5 million.

Taking the average bWAR/fWAR from 2017-2019 (projecting 2019 out to a full season), and Rendon is a solid 6 WAR player. With 1/3 of the season gone, he still should be good for 4 WAR the rest of the way. At 1 WAR = 9 million, that's 36 million in value minus the 12.5 million he's due for the rest of the season puts his surplus value at 23.5 million. That would put his value at about the #80 hitter on the top 100 prospects list or the #69 pitcher on the top 100 prospects list. Ray might have actually been a pretty decent fit as piece number one in a deal but no reason to even try to debate that now as the injury (although it sounds minor) and his poor start has probably dropped his value by at least 25% (just to pull a number out of my rear). The Brewers really don't have a good comparable at this time. They would have to hope that Rendon just wouldn't have many other team interested (impossible!) and would have to open it up to the Nationals to hand-pick three or four players out of the system. I'd put Turang + Lutz value at about 23 million, so the numbers say it would be a fair swap. Rendon would likely be bid higher than that on the market. If the Nationals were willing to go quantity over quality in a deal, I'd guess a Turang plus Lutz plus Rasmussen plus one of the young Latin American players on the top 30 list would be at least a competitive offer.

I had typed in a whole bunch of stuff this morning with ERA, xFIP, road ERA numbers, etc and when submitting it got the internal server error and it was all lost. Some highlights were that Bumgarner's current ERA is higher than his xFIP which would be the first time that's happened since 2011. His road ERA this year is 3.73 and from 2016-2018 was 3.79. This year his xFIP has been a solid 3.66 but last year it was 4.32 and the previous year it was 4.07. Many consider Oracle (formerly AT&T) Park to be the most favorable environment for left handed pitchers in MLB. If you take his numbers from the last few year and put him as pitching half his games in Miller Park, when it comes to run prevention it's most likely he is a 3.80-4.20 ERA pitcher. The Giants put him on the block this off-season and he didn't stay there for long, likely because San Fran was asking for the moon and other interested clubs probably were all looking at the same numbers that I'm looking at. I think the vast majority of teams just don't see him as being anywhere near an ace level moving forward and value him as a solid pitcher but no longer a special pitcher. I did the brief number crunch on him this off-season (should have no problem locating the thread on page 2 of this forum), and taking the most optimistic numbers determined that Bumgarner would in no way be worth a top 100 hitting prospect but may be worth a back-end top 100 pitcher but, again, that was taking the most optimistic number and that was the off-season so team trading for him now would have already lost roughly 1/3 of the contribution. Even with Burnes being terrible so far this season, a straight up deal for Bumgarner would make no sense for Milwaukee because there is still too much potential that exists with Burnes.

I would not project a pitcher to Milwaukee with their first pick until Stearns actually takes a pitcher with the first pick. Maybe this will be the year, but I'll be guessing it will be whoever the organization sees as the highest upside bat, regardless of position played. If Michael Busch or Kameron Misner make it to #28, debatable if either will, then either of those guys would be predictable picks. After those guys, any of the much talked about high schoolers (Maurice Hampton, Tyler Callihan, Gunnar Henderson) would all be excellent choices. Basically I wouldn't be surprised by any hitter that is currently projecting in the #15-#45 range, but would be a bit surprised if they take any pitcher. I loved the Turang pick but really thought that Stearns might take Shane McClanahan when the pick came up last year. Lefty pitching was probably the weakest area in the organization and having a college guy like that fall in your lap...but once again Stearns passed on the pitcher and took the bat. I'll keep believing he'll continue to do that until he does otherwise.

I think that brief stint playing first base was enough for the Brewers to conclude that they don't want Braun playing first again in non-emergency situations. But now would be the perfect time to give Braun some time at first base. Not only Aguilar's offensive struggles, but Braun's defensive woes. Up until this season I thought Braun did a pretty decent job in left field, but he has not passed the eye-test so far. The metrics back that up, currently sits at a -3 DRS and a woeful -19.9 UZR/150. Have to say it was a pretty disappointing week for Thames. Here is his chance to play and he only OPS'ed .588 over the last 7 days. I do like the idea of Grandal playing more at 1B once Pina is healthy. What do people think of the Baseball Prospectus defensive metrics for catchers now? Grandal is by no means a hack behind the plate, but he hasn't appeared to be a top defensive catcher either. I think Pina is a better defensive catcher. And back to Hiura, IMO the Saladino watch should now officially be on. Still would think the Brewers would prefer to send Hiura down for about 3 weeks (and then bring him right back) for Super Two reasons. Like it or not, having Hiura down for just 3 weeks could end up being a 10 million dollar saver down the road. With Shaw struggling, looks like a Plan B is becoming more of a Plan A. Saladino would be an defensive upgrade and he's continued to hit in AAA. For every positive about Hiura (3 HR, .763 OPS), there is a negative involved (.306 OBP, 1 BB and 19 K in 46 AB), and I don't think it would be out of line for the Brewers to send him back to AAA. Also would note that error in last night's game was a real key play in the loss.

This probably won't have any impact on how MLB handles the MLB draft because Stewart just isn't high profile enough to change anything. If I was a MLB owner, I could care less if the #50 prospect went off the board to play in Japan. If Joe Gray had done the same last year, the Brewers would have just picked a different player and 99.999999% of MLB fans would have already forgotten all about Joe Gray. It will be interesting to see if an agent could convince the next Harper or Strasburg to give up an 8.5 million dollar signing bonus from MLB if a Japanese team was willing to pay 15 million. That might be a motivator for MLB to handle the draft differently. I very much doubt this would happen though, when seeing the extension a player like Eloy Jimenez got, I think it would make more financial sense for a "can't miss" prospect to take smaller money in terms of a signing bonus in hopes or getting a much bigger extension after 3 years playing baseball in the USA. But we would have to see how that would play out. MLB probably does have concerns about Kyler Murray because that was high profile and Murray will remain in the public eye in the USA. But will that motivate MLB to do a significant overhaul to the draft process? I wouldn't think so, just because there just won't be very many prospects like that, and that would make it pretty foolish to overhaul a system based on something that so rarely happens. Baseball has dealt with high school athletes opting to go to college to play football for decades and it doesn't seem to have hurt their business. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised to see an expansion of the comp rule pick, where teams would not only get a replacement pick if their selection doesn't sign but also if he signs and then opts to play a different sport within 1.5 years of when the pick was initially made (or something along those lines). The biggest thing moving forward will be to see how Stewart performs in Japan. From what I've read, it seems Nippon Professional Baseball is considered either right at or just a notch above AAA baseball. How many first round pitchers don't even see AAA? I can't see too many other Japanese teams continue to make this type of investment if Stewart turns out to be a bust. I would not have made this investment if I was a Japanese team. Not with what I know about Carter Stewart. Now if it was Jackson Rutledge for an extra 1 million dollars (8 million instead of 7 million), that would be a different story.

"Superpen" is first in line!

And that 8 million could be a big deal. If the Brewers have 10 million left to spend, dedicating 8 million could prevent them from picking up a reliever that has an annual salary of 8-9 million at the end of June (when the investment would be 4-4.5 million for 1/2 season). I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the White Sox would volunteer to kick in some money to improve the prospect return. While I think the Abreu for Hill/Coca deal could be a possibility, an Abreu + 4 million for Supak and Hill could be just as good of a possibility.

I don't think the cost on Abreu would be that great. Projecting out this year to a full season, and then taking the average bWAR/fWAR from 2017-2019, he averages out as a 2.6 WAR player per season. So, if trading for him at the end of June with half the year gone should yield a team 1.3 WAR. At 9 million per WAR that would bring the value to 11.7 million. He makes 16 million so then subtract off 8 million for the half season of pay and his surplus value is a pretty small 3.7 million. I do think the 8 million dollars pushes many teams away because the guy hasn't really been all that great a hitter when considering his position for the past 1 1/3 seasons (.264/.323/.487/.811). Aguilar over that same timeframe = .258/.342/.489/.831. Thames over that same timeframe = .223/.324/.455/.780. If the trading team picks up the entire 8 million, surplus value says that Abreu is worth 1 role-player prospect or 2 fringe-prospects. I don't think a deal like Abreu for Adam Hill and Yeison Coca would be out of the question.

Service time ticks when on the DL. He was 65 days away on opening day, those 65 days are almost up. So if they were going to option him, they had to do it now. I would have preferred to have Nelson up and starting next week, but I can see why they did what they did. He'd need to spend almost the entire season optioned for the Brewers to get an extra year. I pulled the service time number from https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-milwaukee-brewers They have him at 4 years, 107 days and I thought they updated thier numbers daily. However, Baseball Reference also has him at 4 years, 107 days and I know they only update at the beginning of the year. So either I was incorrect about Roster Resource doing daily updates, or Roster Resource made a mistake with not crediting him service time. Either way my statement was wrong. Thanks for pointing that out. Now I think the smart move was to option Nelson now.

When the year started, the starting pitching was terrible and was the one area that was going to prevent the Brewers from going to the playoffs. Then I think the bullpen was the problem next. Then I think the next thing was the offense. Then it went back to the bullpen. Enough hand-wringing to go around to all areas of the ballclub at one point or another. As I type this, the Brewers currently have the following rankings in the NL: Runs per game = 8th (4.90) Starters ERA = 11th (4.35) Bullpen ERA = 8th (4.27) Starting pitching is the weak point on paper, but with Woodruff's plus-plus improvement, Chacin having four pretty decent recent outings, addition of Gonzalez, possible addition of Nelson...maybe that doesn't figure to be the weak spot down the road (but maybe it will be?). But what the numbers demonstrate, there are still no obvious areas of strength or areas of weakness on the team. Currently, I'd say no to both Encarnacion and Kimbrel and play at least another six weeks and see where things are then.

I'm disappointed but not shocked by this move. It just seems like Nelson has reached the sink or swim phase, there is a time where he is going to have to face MLB hitters and it seems pretty pointless at this juncture to have him continue to work in AAA. If they called him up now and he got shelled in his first two/three starts, then they could have optioned him a few weeks from now as he is still about 65 days away from reaching 5 years of service time. Chacin has been pretty good his last four times out and IMO should stay in the rotation based on that. I would have brought up Nelson, stuck in him the rotation and bounced Anderson back to the bullpen. Anderson has done well in his starts but that has only covered 13 2/3 innings of work. Then I'd probably say Burnes gets bumped back to AAA. It may be a small sample size, but Peralta's has been much more effective against left-handed bats this year and starting to look like he could be a multi-inning hammer out of the bullpen. His plus-fastball and a bunch of marginal other stuff just might play that much better as a reliever. Houser would be a definite candidate to send back down, but with Burnes sucking in his last two outings...it just gets pretty hard to justify that 10+ ERA and 2 WHIP on the roster. Obvious no-brainer statement at this point is that Burnes better turn in a good outing in his next chance.

Thing that could make the Diamondbacks scary is that they've had some relievers who have really under-performed so far. Archie Bradley = 4.29 ERA, 1.86 WHIP. Yoshihisa Hirano = 5.09 ERA, 1.42 WHIP. Get those guys going with Greg Holland who appears to be back on track (1.69 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and then combine that with a Grienke/Weaver/Ray 1-2-3 punch in the rotation and that could be a plus-plus pitching staff late in the season and playoff time. I still question what that lineup will do over the long-haul, but those guys have got the job done so far. 4.92 runs per game to this point, just edges out the Brewers by the slightest of margins (Brewers at 4.90 runs per game). I still like the Brewers offense better over the long-haul...but we are up to the 50 game mark now so the sample size isn't that small anymore.

Time will tell if this is a good investment or not for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. Obviously if Stewart turns out to be a great player they will benefit from having him on the team and then being able to flip him for a posting fee that will probably be 3 times what they just paid for him. But there is always a chance he craps out which would make it a bad investment. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2000/05/17/baseball/mlb/salaries-in-japanese-baseball-on-the-rise/#.XOXt0ndFxPY So the average player on the highest payroll team makes roughly 885k per season. So let's just say the average player in the Nippon League makes 850k. Stewart gets 7 million over 6 years, so 1.167 million per season....1.3 times higher. As SRB pointed out, Carter's draft stock has significantly slipped since last year. MLB pipeline had him listed at #38 but Baseball America and some other ranking seemed to put him more in the 50-60 range. It just seems like a really big investment for a Japanese club for a player that isn't a real significant prospect anymore. I do take my hat off to Scott Boras and Stewart for getting this deal because it certainly appears to be better than what he would have gotten in the USA. So credit to Boras for working in the best interest of his client. But if Boras really wants to break up the monopoly that MLB has an amateur players, then he better have big-time hope that Stewart is a hit for Fukuoka because if he's a miss then Japan probably won't be so anxious to throw this type of money at 18-19 amateurs in the future.

From 2015-2017, Lyles threw 177 1/3 MLB innings and had a 6.39 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 1.62 WHIP and a K/BB ratio <2. In the first half of 2018, he was so mediocre performing in a pitcher's park (4.29 ERA, 4.45 WHIP) that the Padres waived him and just let him walk so they could audition younger pitchers. He got a 2.05 million dollar free agent deal this off-season, more than 40 other pitchers got free agent contracts worth more. Why did the Brewers pass on a 3.5 million dollar commitment? Probably it was because Lyles history didn't justify that number. The market only giving him about 60% of that number is real solid evidence that not many teams would have picked up a 3.5 million dollar option on him (maybe none). History and sample size matters more than anything. Lyles pitched well for the Brewers but it was only 16 1/3 innings. Looking at the total picture from 2016-2018, Lyles was a 5.75 ERA, 4.73 FIP, 1.51 WHIP pitcher. Congrats to the Pirates and their crystal ball for hitting on their flier investment this off-season.

I think some deeper systems might be able to swing a deal for Smith without including an organizational top 10 prospect, but I don't know if the Brewers quality is good enough outside of the top 10. One guy outside of the top 10 (maybe has moved into the top 10 now) that I think would be of interest to the Giants as one piece would be Stokes because he is MLB ready and could go into the Giant outfield immediately. Frankly, if I'm the Giants there just isn't much else that the Brewers have outside of the top 10 that interests me. Stokes, Supak, Carlos Rodriguez, Eduarqui Fernandez....those are players that would interest me. I'd have absolutely zero interest in players like Diplan and Gatewood, absolutely no interest whatsoever.

I think the Mets botched this one. Not trading for Broxton, but essentially giving up on him too soon. Maybe Gomez rebounds from a pretty bad 2018 season, but I just never saw him as a guy that would age gracefully in baseball terms. Broxton was off to a terrible start, but he's a much better offensive player that what he showed so far in a Mets uniform. And I don't think there is any comparison defensively. Gomez was once an elite defender, but Broxton is a far better with the glove these days. It's pretty debatable whether Gomez can even play a fairly effective centerfield anymore. I don't think there is a place for Broxton back on the Brewer's 40-man roster, but there should be around a half dozen MLB teams which should be tripping over one another in trying to acquire him. I would have to think the Mets get trade offers, even though everyone will low-ball them now because they've DFA'ed him. I don't know if these numbers are right, but I just checked team OPS by players playing centerfield, and 20 of the teams have a centerfield OPS below .700 (Brewers are 12th at .697). 10 of the teams have a CF OPS below .650 and 7 of those teams have a CF OPS below .600. Have to believe there would be about 10 teams that would have serious interest in Broxton.

Burnes ERA back over 10.

I don't think it matters is Hiura is OPS'ing 1.600 or .400, when Shaw is ready (and if there are no more injuries to other players), Hiura is likely to be sent back down. If Hiura is on the MLB roster from this point forward, he would accrue 139 days of service time. Last year, 2.134 days of service time earned Super Two status for players with between 2-3 years of service time. Over the last ten years, the lowest number to reach Super Two status is 2 years, 122 days. Very, very strong odds that the Brewers will look to option Hiura and keep him in the minors for two weeks later on this year, as it could easily save 10+ million over the course of 4 season that can be used for other additions. So even if Hiura is just raking, the Brewers will likely be motivated to send him back down. Obviously that length of time he would spend in the minors would be dependent on how much he is hitting during his time in Milwaukee.

The absolute best the Brewers would get for Thames is a couple fringe prospects. I wouldn't be interested in trading a .241/.385/.458/.842 bat for a couple long-shots. Both the OBP and OPS currently rank 2nd on the team among players that have enough at-bats to "count." Aguilar's performance could head south again. Moustakas could get hurt. Lots of things could happen. Why be so anxious to dump a guy who has done a nice job with the bat so far?

Keith Law posted a 2009 re-draft on ESPN's website, and since I don't have access to it, I went through and looked at the bWAR for all the players that signed that were taken in the first 30 rounds. BTW, the Brewers picked 26th in that draft and the 26th highest bWAR so far in that draft belongs to Enrique Hernandez. I'm guessing he'd be a fairly anonymous player to most Brewer fans if not for that home run he hit off Hader earlier this season. But the other interesting thing that I noticed was. Dallas Keuchel = 18.3 bWAR Patrick Corbin = 14.2 bWAR Which brings into question: Patrick Corbin = 6 years, 140 million dollars Dallas Keuchel = far, far less With two pretty obvious reasons for what has happened: Dallas Keuchel = 31 years, 134 days old as of today Patrick Corbin = 29 years, 300 days old as of today Dallas Keuchel = 6.7 K/9 in 2018 Patrick Corbin = 11.1 K/9 in 2018 IMO that should be real valuable information for agents moving forward. Also worth noting that the Nationals may be the biggest disappointment in all of MLB so far. Only 1/4 of the way through the season, and a lot can change, but as if this morning they have a record that is only 1.5 games ahead of the Royals and Orioles. A bit of evidence in there that Stearns more and more obvious approach of making big investments in bats and let the pitching sort itself out is the smart way to go.