brewcrewdue80

The way I read it is that Overbay can decide to opt out of his contract beginning the 22nd and then the Brewers have 48hours to either add him or release him. Has it been posted that Overbay is opting out?

I actually have some faith that Wang can outperform Duke this year alone. Wang isn't like your prototypical RP.. He's shown fantastic control of the strikezone and not walking batters. Typically the difference of a RP in the position Wang is taking is that they don't possess great control but have decent 1/2 pitches. I really feel this will go very good on the season. Wang isn't your 7th/8th/9th inning pitcher. He can come in pitch against a tough lefty and exit. Or come in, during blowouts and toss a cpl innings. Who knows, maybe the Juan Fran clearing out has some to do with Wang making the team along with all of Duke, Overbay, and Reynolds. Either way, I've already stated, Wang coming off the bench to face LH batters or in mop up duty...You're looking for 60ip on the season from him in maybe 65-75 appearances. Our pitching staff is better with Garza and a more experienced Peralta...There should be quite a bit of 6ip with 6+ from this staff that the stress on Wang to perform just won't really be there. Now, last year? Different story where it was Lohse,Gallardo and then who at 3,4,5 to give us 6 or more ip? Remember that.

Just saw that. wow. Let's just begin to think that he may out WAR Trout now this year if he holds on to leadoff with the what? 120-140PAs more than the 6th in order suggesting? This does solve the where to fit Gomez problem...Just ignore the .300OB or so you now have a more settled/traditional 3,4,5,6 in Braun,ARam,Lucroy,Davis. I do have a feeling this is a better move than batting Segura leadoff today. I think he needs to improve a little more. I am thinking Gomez single/double...Segura bunt sac/single let Braun/Aram drive Gomez in is a sound strategy. You flip the roles and you just cant ask Gomez to bunt...Segura on the other hand....why not? less power, plenty of speed.

I think you're looking at this the wrong way. The guys in AA/AAA you mention aren't with the kind of upside Wang possesses. Those AA/AAA guys you mention are Lefty RPs strictly. The Brewers don't have a legitimate LH SP in the system in all honesty. Wang, after his 60IP or so this year of being even at 5ERA...Heck to me 6.5ERA would be cool by me just for the fact that the team then gains a LH SP that is immediately the best in the organization. You want to dump that opportunity for AA/AAA guys who's ceiling is that of LH RP? And the idea of trading with Pittsburgh to me honestly, if I'm them, not happening. If I were to jokingly consider it being Pittsburgh I'd be asking for either Wily Peralta or Will Smith for Wang. Pittsburgh has nothing but time to develop Wang. The only way you entice them to trade him is to give up SPs that are ready today of Wang's potential who have decent team control. So no to Lohse/Estrada/Gallardo/ and Garza. It would only be Peralta/Smith. I don't see Thornburg being an upgrade to Pittsburgh's Staff this year/future as Peralta or Smith can. So the answer to get the best LH SP in the Brewers organization is to stick Wang on your 25man for this entire season and use him out of the bullpen. There will be plenty of occasions to toss him out there for a LH matchup or pitch him 2-3ip in long relief in a situation where the score is out of hand. He won't be a waste of space. He is the perfect Rule 5 player to add to your team because you can get your IP out of him in times you don't need a 3ERA guy to be on the mound, where 5ERA is okay. Livan Hernandez was that player 2 years ago for cripes sake!

That is a big loss for Cincy. Do they have any kind of decent replacement? Chapman is a shutdown closer a replacement could mean 2blown saves per month...Difference of 88wins vs 84 in 2months missed action

I posted this earlier in this thread... and I get the concerns about him not being super efficient, but Gallardo pitched at least 6 innings in 22 of his 31 starts last season. Crew put 7th inning in which case Gallardo only pitched in the 7th inning or later 11 times out of 31. 6ip is vanilla. Still 9outs you force your bullpen to get. 7th ip starts makes it 6outs(not including extras) That's 1 more RP to get a day off in those games.

No way no how on Ike Davis. Only for a Juan Fran straight up do I do the trade at this moment. He's injured now, and how often is it that once a player is injured, that injury lingers all year affecting their ability to play at 100% ability? Ike Davis is dealing with a calf injury. Already affects his ability to run, and injuries like that lead to other injuries because you tend to walk/run differently to compensate and lessen the pain when doing so....That leads to another injury(hip/Back, Hamstrings, his Core again) Go with the Juan Fran/Reynolds platoon. If the trade is made Juan Fran for Davis then you can just play Reynolds everyday til Davis is ready and platoon them then. Let's put it this way, I think some are excited at the thought of Ike Davis because the mention he hid a Core injury from the team last year. Now he has a calf injury. But could the Mets FO coin up this idea with Davis, to put down he hid an injury from the team to explain him being lousy, and then upon seeing he's still lousy tell him we now want you to have a "Calf Injury" hiding Davis from being seen in ST and leaving Trade Partner potentials to deal something worthy for Davis. As they could be under the impression that Davis once healthy(having not seen him be lousy in ST) can be the stud hitting 1b prospect he was to be? Yeah Conspiracy theorist but hey if I'm the Mets FO, why not drum this up? Maybe Ike came to them with the idea wanting out of New York? I mean why be so publicly "out there" with looking to trade Ike? Constantly putting he's available? Hasn't it been said over and over again, a player's ability to focus 100% when he's been publicly offered to trade affects them? You hear the no it doesn't affect me I'm just going out there and playing everyday if a trade happens it happens. I mean if extension talks can't go on during the season to avoid affecting play, trade talks? You're talking taking somebody's head in a comfortable place with a home, and now in the back of his mind he's gotta wonder if traded/ selling his home, finding a new home. Moving sucks! Then there's gotta be one media idiot who asks Davis daily or every other day about the trade rumors making sure the idea sticks in his head. So yeah, I wonder about Davis being injured right now kept away from ST games vs ML competition. And his "Core ailment hidden from team" When the Mets have been so adamant of trading him and nothing happening these come up. On that note, my guess is that Davis goes to Pittsburgh for Tabata. End Rant.

Peralta's second half differed from his first half due to luck. His FIP in the first half was 4.32 and in the second it was 4.26. He K'd more batters but started give up a bunch more fly balls leading to home runs. ZiPs FIPs projections: Garza: 3.65 Estrada: 3.75 Gallardo: 3.75 Lohse: 4.09 Smith: 4.10 Peralta: 4.36 Given that putting Peralta in AAA can buy another year of his prime, Smith pitching allows for a left hander in the rotation, and it allows for both Thornburg and Peralta remain stretched out to come to Milwaukee when a starter goes down; Peralta in Nashville makes perfect sense. Does the Zips FIPs projections consider Smith as a full-time 32 start Pitcher? Or as a Bullpen guy who seen success last year in it? Because imo it is projecting him in the bullpen vs Peralta as a SP. Smith thus far in his career has a high HR/9 rate. and he's now in a HR friendly ballpark. The other thing is, how do you say take Peralta out of the rotation after he gave the team 32Starts last year? Smith hasn't show any of that thus far in his career. On that note alone, the 4.10 vs 4.36 ERA Lefty vs Righty I'm going with the guy who has been through a 32 Start season already vs. the "Suggested FIP difference of .26ERA" and Lefty who's turn as a Starter 2years ago was as a 5+ERA guy with unappealing bb/k rates. I'm a big fan of Smith don't read me wrong both he and Peralta are young and I hope/figure stand to improve this year and for the next few years. If/when an injury happens, I suspect Smith will get a chance to start especially if its against a Lefty filled lineup. I'll let him gain more experience starting that way to decide how to use him down the road. But Peralta in AAA for? The guy was 4th best in velocity in all of Baseball among Starters last year. And based on what I know, Velocity is a big plus that tends to lessen as one ages....So please let's use all of Peralta's Plus Velocity while he still has it!

Do we know enough about Wang to be relying on him for an entire season though? I know that we have to use a spot on the 25 man for him if we want to keep him, but to trade one of the guys we may need to rely on seems a bit hasty to me. Just my opinion. My thought with Gorzo kinda lies in 1. he's a lefty something teams are typically vying for and 2. he can spot start for teams. Injury bugs like Atlanta's could make that ability of Gorzo's valuable to a team. And 3. Just add Zach Duke who would only be a RP The team I'm thinking of in this is Philly. And the player that could be excellent to acquire in this trade would be Darin Ruf. Maybe toss Juan Fran their way as a backup 1b/3b.(assuming they wouldn't want Reynolds) Ruf has some power as well as decent BB rate. Not to mention a combo 1b/OF ability. Just a thought.

If this team can keep Wang on as a Lefty along with Smith, could that make Gorzo tradebait? If I'm the GM, I'm strongly considering finding any takers interested in Gorzo. Especially if you can pair him with either Weeks or Juan Fran.

Just pretty sad to read Sickels assessment. I read it and pretty much come away with Roache and a bunch of future nobody's. A class of guys who appear to have some kind of talent, but are in an organization that won't develop it to anywhere near it's full potential. Or if anything, take that talent and revert it back to non-talent. Guys like Jungmann, Pena, Hellweg, Coulter B type prospects heading to C type prospects or worse.

Like Monty said, I doubt Atl, would extend the QO after this year. It's one thing for Santana to turn it down the first time and to turn away playing for KC. But being a part of Atl's organization on a team very capable to win 90games? Playing in a Pitcher's ballpark? If I'm Santana, I'd gladly accept every QO Atl sends me. The other thing, is that Atlanta's rotation was very solid on paper with Minor, Medlen, Teheren, Beachy, and Wood. Bringing back Santana gives you 6 Pitchers for 5 spots. The upgrade of Santana over maybe Wood is small. But next QO I'd guess will be 15mil next year maybe 15.5mil. Vs. the 1mil for Wood? Not worth it. But who knows? Atlanta's staff with Beachy, Minor, and now Medlen they are fragile and another one could go down this year and leave an open rotation spot to fit Santana again next year. Overall Atl loses the 26th pick which the history on BRef has it at 44% ever playing in MLB. 123.9 WAR among 22players. But take away Alan Trammel's 70.3WAR you're left with a Career WAR avg of 2.55 per player. I would say Santana can exceed that this year alone pitching in Atl.

http://mlblogsbrewersbeat.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/ap01090103131.jpg

Coming back to my fantasy keeper thoughts. I know I'm keeping Puig. Yelich, I'm feeling down on. I have Billy Hamilton or Matt Adams that seem to be higher ADP at the moment over Yelich. It's H2H category with OB/SLG on top of the normal 5 cats. The thought is that Hamilton would win me SBs alone every week. I can then put a focus on guys with HR potential and OB skills. Your Votto/Fielder/Butler/Choo types. We have 2 Util to place over a DH spot only so I can fit all three 1b. I'm picking 9th so then 16th. I think I have a good chance to get Fielder and Votto at 9/16. I'd probably reach on Choo but Choo adds SBs with Puig on top of Hamilton so I don't feel I'm relying strictly on Hamilton for SBs. I'm thinking by getting those 4 Votto,Fielder,Choo, and Butler. I'd have a very strong OB win chance on my team regardless of the remaining Avg/OB struggling guys I'd have like Puig/Hamilton. I'd probably mix in Runs guys with HR bats the rest of the way. But really if I landed those 4 Fielder@9 Votto@16 Choo@40 Butler@88 I would put just about the remainder of my focus on Pitchers. Think that would be a great strategy? Oh even better, I could throw Beltre @9 for 3b? The only problem is if I get to 16 and Encarnacion,Fielder, and Votto are gone I'm left hanging with my OB strategy at 1b. Who do you like more Encarnacion,Fielder, or Beltre?

Here's the same video from behind. Look how quickly the ball shows up off his hands and the fastball doesn't really make a big downward movement/flat Here's the newest video. Looks better imo the downward in the FB. And not as quick of seeing the ball out of his hands. His Curve as shown in the vid you posted certainly has some great movement. (I'm still going with Ortiz ahead of Holmes, there's a star presence about him I just feel it watching him pitch)

At least he's a HS pitcher. Saw video of him in 2013 and it wasn't appealing. Then saw a small video of 2014 and he definitely appeared better. In 2013 the pitches were flat easy to pick up. In the 2014 video the pitches had some more downward plane, the video was taken at an angle a little too far off to decide how easily it was to pick up. You read the mock and at 18...18! the pick of Luis Ortiz with the tidbit that he could be the best of all the HS pitchers drafted in 3 years. Watched another video of Ortiz and I am still a big fan of him should he be there for the Brewers. I think Aiken is gaining steam as noted above that he's off the board before Milw picks. But that's okay if we land Ortiz imo. Oh, and no way Kolek falls to #5 imo. If I'm Houston, I am strongly considering him over Rodon right now. Kolek looks way more impressive to me than Rodon does and he's younger, just what Houston should be after, after tabbing Appel last draft.

Right now, I'm thinking 12-16. Tough schedule to start vs Atl who's pretty much a set team vs. our who's on 1st/2nd 1,2,3 in SP? Who's first out of the bullpen? 7th inning? Then to Boston and Philly on the road? Boston has our number. I can see an 0-6 start to the season. And 6 games vs StL. They are just in a League of their own in talent 1-5 or 2-4 vs them. Just results in a losing month. But who knows? The pitching matchups can make or break the month. We may catch Pitts/SD/Chi's bottom of the staff and win all those games. Or we catch the top of their staffs and play .500 vs them. I'll probably edit this post when ST comes to an end and the matchups and who has made the team is known.

Holy crap, that site about crashed my browser, wth was going on with that web page? As to the suggestion, no. You remove a likely only everyday LHB in the Brewers Lineup. Stay expensive with Weeks which means 600PA for him to play 2015 on Milw. And if Weeks doesn't reach his option who plays 2b in 2015? Or SS if Segura plays 2b w/o Weeks? Marrero would appear to be maybe, maybe 2016 ready for Majors...if he even reaches a level that makes him a MLB player. We're looking at .600s OPS guy with 2HRs last year in A+/AA ball. You're basically sending a solution at 2b beyond this year or for this year for a minimal if any upgrade to play 1b with whom we have on the team today. If Weeks or Segura went down there are zero capable players to take over for them every day. And the throw in suggestion? If Marrero is a 2016 graduate to MLB....doesn't that pretty much coincide with Arcia's potential graduate in to MLB? For Weeks, sure we'll take Carp. For Scooter? no. No Way. I mean just reading the article, it's pretty much stating Carp has zero value for them aside from depth. How do you get who was headed in to the everyday starting 2b roll Gennett for a guy who has no place on your starting roster?...Oh, because he will start for Milw? Yeah but Gennett was going to Start for Milw so we lose a starter for a starter, while you lose a bench player for a bench player on your team? Has to be Weeks in the deal for Carp oh it's a lousy deal.

I read it more as Weeks+money saved for a Backup Catcher. Of the Yank's extras JR Murphy seems the best on paper. Do you send Maldonado to AAA for 2014 then? I know I read some posters concerns with having Maldonado as your backup after the stats he posted last year. It is good that Weeks is playing well thus far in ST at least because the rich Yankees and Dodgers just may have a roster spot for Weeks. I really don't get the scouting of Phelps as a SP considering what we have now. Is Phelps in any way a major upgrade over the potential of Thornburg,Smith,Nelson,Hellweg,Jungmann? Just look at how big that list is of #5s we can toss at the back of the rotation?!! Now, at the same time Seattle is mentioned and they have what? a plethora of 1b and a need for a #5. Anyone smell a 3 team trade forthcoming? Weeks to NY, Phelps to Sea, and Smoak to Milwaukee?

Ah, yes I did mean Snubbed. LOL hate when the wrong word comes to mind thinking it's the word you should use.

PFx1, we all want our young players (Roache, Davis and everyone) to do well. I really want to get some guys on the farm that everyone is drooling over. Projecting young prospects is an inexact "science," but the guys who are paid to scout them (whether "traditional" or "statistical") are generally down on our farm, mainly because of the lack of top prospects in the system. We have added some "high upside" guys in recent years, and hopefully some pan out, but I think it's prudent to temper our enthusiasm. Roache is one of these "high upside" guys, but he has to produce to move from "high upside potential" to "top prospect." Guys like Buxton, Taveras and Almora are OF who fit into the category you're placing Roache. I think what gets lost in top 100 rankings is not only the ability to hit but play defense if they struggle hitting, the defensive ability gives these top 20-30 in ranks a longer leash to succeed as being every day players. Naming guys like Buxton/Taveras/and Almora it's not that they can hit, they are plusses in defense not just average. Also, those 3 are younger than Roache while having more Minor League time played. I'm pretty sure PFX's enthusiasm on Roache is just overlooking the defensive part and the scout's rankings with defense. Roache was a top 10 draft talent. hit 22HRs last year, should he hit 30+ this year I think notice starts getting taken to include Roache in the top 75 even top 50 come next season. As it stands with Scouting Book barring adjustment he's ranked 129 with this: A strong outfielder with plus bat speed and power, Milwaukee prospect Victor Roache is more than a pull hitter: he can spray line drives to all fields, and displays superior pitch recognition. One of the best bets to succeed offensively, he'll enjoy hitting in a near-future Milwaukee lineup. I truly believe his non-included in ranking top 100 is just being leery of his past injury. That the time lost to injury, one can only figure it gives the ranking people that much more time to put Roache in their rankings. If you figure a top 100 prospect minor league arc is 3.25 years-4. with Roache's injury you extend that from draft to 4-4.75. So from June 2012 rather than Roache making it to the Majors July 2015-June 2016 he's at June 2016 to Start of 2017 season. Why rank him in the top 100 today when you can do so beginning the mid season reranking after a number of top 100 are graduated and you have a full year's picture what Roache can do? Now, back to 1b in this, With Braun,Khris Davis, Haniger, Taylor kinda being what I think as post Gomez/Schafer at CF I think Roache's quickest way on to the team is to be 1b with OF when needed. And the power in his bat is what separates him from trying to move say Haniger/Taylor to 1b. Or Braun's defensive ability over Roache you don't ask Braun to move to 1b to make room for Roache. But that is just so far away and counting on progression without injury setbacks you just let him play in the OF and wait til he's reached AAA to even see if you need him to move from his OF position. Delmonico was acquired last season and he's the 3b of the future at the moment so who's to say a trade this year doesn't net the 1b for years to come?

Just being realistic. Fan Voting for Braun certainly will drop drastically outside of Milwaukee, and even some I think in Milwaukee. That kinda leaves the Manager's pick of Braun to get on the team. If you have to snuff a guy, is it the surprise AllStar candidate or the PED player who was suspended the year prior? Let's say Khris Davis bats .285 with 19HRs 50Rbi 5SBs at the break and Braun is at .330 17HRs 54Rbi 12SBs. Who would you hope gets in via manager's choice?

Espn had a writeup on a Betting site with Over/Under for each team. And then the writer went 30-26, 25-21, 20-16...so on picking which team in that 5 team group has the best chance to exceed their win projection. As it stood I think Milwaukee was at 79.5 in the 20-16 bracket. Cincy and Pitt was in the next with around 83wins and St Louis had a 94?-97 win projection?. I don't know if anyone here bet but now you have an idea where the o/u line stands because the vast majority here I think feel Milwaukee will exceed 80wins. Me? You can't really predict this team, no way no how. Pitching I think you can but the position players/lineup? Braun/Lucroy/ARam you know what you have/will get. But that's it currently. I'm still not going to label Gomez as a known commodity. 2b/1b has yet to be determined we can guess Gennett/Reynolds but what if it's Weeks/Overbay? Or Weeks/Francisco? Segura/Gomez/Davis as for sure starters you can put Segura/Gomez as potential .230 BA guys all the way to .305 BA guys. Davis I would say .200-.285BA individual. If 2/3rds reach the peak or 2/3rds go with the bottom that to me can mean 10 wins on a season. Especially Segura since he's a leadoff projected guy. And you would be lead to believe if Segura is failing atop the lineup/ Gomez sees time at leadoff next. The addition of Garza much like the addition of Lohse I think sets the low end of wins in the mid 70s. The pitching staff is solid but no single world beater in the group so division matchups our 3.5-3.7ERA starts can still be a bunch of Losses to the Aces in the division with their 2ERA starts. The season really depends on the Offense churning up runs...especially vs. the Division. At a max I think 86 wins....but man I like our bullpen so I'm thinking 85Wins. Very close to the max win. All-Stars:Gomez,Lucroy...Braun Snuffed Biggest Disappointment: Gallardo. Biggest Surprise: Wang Rule 5 pick lasts the season as a Loogy. How about Attendence guess? 2.45mil Gotta throw that in for Monty off the top of my head there's 2 others who see FO moves all dealing with selling tickets. Division standing 3rd. Pittsburgh to me gets the Wild Card in the division at 88wins and yes St Louis barring a Wainwright injury wins 94 games. Minor League POY: Victor Roache when he mashes 34HRs and bats around .290. Do I really have to pick WS in a Brewers Prediction? Dodgers vs. Oakland

PrinceFielderx1 said: The Brewers will be looking for temporary 1B man for the next couple years, because they are preparing Victor Roache to take it over by then. Monty of all people here though you do know that was his 1st pro season after his injury. An injury that made folks concerned of sapping what was his true Plus leading to being draft Power/HR ability. I see 22HRs as being a good sign that Roache can get to the status of being his top 10 predraft ranking in 2012. And yeah the team is built around Braun currently. With Davis, that can all the more reason to make a position change with Roache. Since he's blocked. It will turn in to a reverse Hart. 1b to OF...OF to 1b. Now PFX1 I suggested they move Roache to 1b in their minors. Your statement makes it seem like it's been decided by the club to do so? Where did you read that?

No I would not extend Gallardo. He never stepped up and became that dependable 7ip+ guy when needed. Instead he'd throw in that bad timed 4ip shelling when the team needed 7-8. The team has Peralta/Garza with Thornburg/Smith/and Jungmann to be rear of the rotation guys. And there's still always the trade opportunity to acquire a #2/3 to replace Gallardo/Lohse. Gomez and Davis should he prove his bat or Gallardo/Lohse themselves should we have another 6win month in the first half this year. It would have been nice if Melvin jumped on the phone with Arizona and acquired Matt Davidson or Chris Owings in trade for Gallardo prior to Davidson being traded away. But again, no on extending Gallardo. I just have a feeling that 1, he's going to have a high asking price due to his past and not his recent...especially since he finished fairly well to end last year. I think the Brewers are in a good seat with having to choose between the 13mil option next year or to let him walk via FA. You have all year to figure where you stand with Yo. You pick up his option(meaning he performed to a strong #3/borderline #2 this year) and have to believe then he's a QO worthy after 2015....if that even exists then. I think based on Yo's 13mil option that an extension would begin with 13 mil or more for 2016-2018. I can't see Yo willing to take a pay decrease especially in today's binge spending. Can't take on 13mil/yr Yo of 2013 for additional years 2016 and beyond, not at this time.