brewcrewdue80

Haniger at 1b? .782OPS for his career in the minors? .720OPS in A+ last year? 1b? If Haniger moved to 1b, I would think his ceiling becomess that of AAA by age 26-28 and maybe 100 PAs ever in MLB. Being concerned about Haniger's future OF spot when it's likely not something to be concerned about until middle of the season 2016? I'm guessing he spends this year at AA, maybe repeats AA next year to start and then moves to AAA. And starts 2016 at AAA. Unless Haniger finds .900+OPS with his bat within the next 1.5seasons. There's a strong chance Haniger never makes it on Milwaukee's 25man roster even as OF. There's no need to move him away from the OF when he's likely going to be used in trade and being an OF to this point has to be where he's earned his most value. Sorry to beat this idea down on the attempt to think outside the box. I think you chose the wrong player. Roache, now there's your minor league OF in the system to move to 1b. He has the power with the bat to fit in a 1b profile.

This is why I wish the Brewers would think out of the box and deal Aramis now for a potential long term solution at 3B like Middlebrooks. I just can't figure how Boston would make that trade. The Red Sox don't exactly have good backup SS/3b option when they would start Bogaerts at SS and ARam at 3b when losing Middlebrooks. My guess in how to get Middlebrooks is for Boston to have a SP go down with injury prior to opening day, they re-sign Stephen Drew and send Middlebrooks to us for say Lohse or Gallardo. Along with wait for it, Matt Barnes. if Lohse. If Gallardo I think its Middlebrooks for him straight up. Now, we have him and I'd guess Middlebrooks is sent to AAA to be called upon when Aram does go on the DL. But that's all far-fetched. How would Boston trade for Aram off an injury riddled year for a younger Middlebrooks? I mean I guess it moves Nava off #2 putting Pedroia #2 and can bat ARam #3 ahead of Ortiz/Napoli. If they keep Nava at #2 you're then putting ARam at #5 sliding Napoli to #6 in the order? I don't know, thinking out loud.

I think a lot of these new extensions are a result of a team having a new influx of money to play with from the TV Deal. Don't forget the big extender of this offseason Atlanta. They have a new stadium in the works so there's that to be considered. I also look at the length of extensions. Freeman/Simmons long term, safe bets imo. Heyward? He got 2 years from a guy you would have thought prior to last season was a 6-7year extension candidate. Also, you know what fuels the money these guys make in an extension? Players who win their cases in Arb or the money they settle for. I think you can look at the extensions as a way to reduce so and so from going through Arb and raising the value drastically of a player's worth. You get to year 2 of arb and suddenly numbers are being tossed of 6.5mil from the team and 11mil asked from the player. All it takes is one player to win his case to make all the players behind with similar careers their first 4 years to be worth 11mil year 2 in Arb. And who knows? Jump it up to 16-17mil year 3 in Arb. At the same time you have someone like Starlin Castro who's deal could become foolish if he doesn't revert back to the player he was prior to his extension. And if he doesn't? Deals like his will turn teams away from signing extensions. Just wait, Mr Trout will get a 10year extension record money and blow out his hamstrings prior to year 3 never being the same player again. And that will turn off these long term, assume all the risk, deals by teams. Personally, I'd love for it to be 2-3year length of contracts only. Removing teams from a long contract albatross. Pujols? and the Angels anyone? Also when a player declines due to injury early in a contract(Weeks) a Team doesn't have to sit on that player paying him AllStar money for Bench player stats for any longer than 2years. But That's my single opinion and one that I'm sure the Player's Union completely squashed probably older owners having that kind of opinion years ago. Plus potential team turnover every 2 years could turn away fans.

I doubt he'll hold up to being picked in the top 15. From the video I seen, I'm just in belief he will drop down draft boards as time goes by. Here's one for the scouts in here. Nick Gordon. Do you see him as a hitter/ infielder? Or do you think you draft him and focus on pitching? Aiken or Ortiz? That's pretty much the two I see it coming down to. Those two and Gordon. But I'm thinking the Blue Jays grab him ahead of Milw's pick since they have 2 1st rd selections.

162G AVG: .312/.374/.564 36 HR 117 RBI I feel like Braun's .312/.374 will be about right. The HRs can be tough to judge. Few things to consider, even with being a great hitter, You've taken Houston out of the division, Pitt/Cin/StL all have great pitching up and down....Okay Pitts really relies on Cole/Taillon stepping forward. All around the NL the pitching has vastly improved and like mentioned his thumb+no longer PED assisted You have to believe HRs will drop. But not by much. I'll say 28HRs this year in 147games. Being optimistic he won't go on the DL this year but go Day to Day multiple times. .307/.370/.517 29HRs 92Rbi 27SBs But, I wouldn't be surprised he exceeds those numbers. Braun just seems to want to be historic with his numbers. I could see 40-44HRs and 30-34SBs with a .333-.345 avg. Rbi still to me will be tough to exceed 100 this year. Honestly Segura and whoever bats 2nd, you just have to believe aren't posting .340+ OB. And if it's Gomez #2 the 25-30HRs Cargo gets reduces those Rbi opportunities. Sure both Segura/Gomez are more likely to score from 1st on a Double by Braun than anyone in the past #1/2 in the order. Just feel it's tough for Braun this year to achieve 100Rbi. not to mention the #8/9 in order isn't promising this year to believe those guys will be on base but a handful apiece throughout the year. I'd really like to see Braun bat #2 this year Mixing ARam/Lucroy at 3/4.

I'm in 2 Leagues have the 4th pick in a year to year league. 9th pick in a 3man keeper league 2batters 1Pitcher. I was awful in picking batters last year: Kemp@4 1st rd, Stanton @21 2nd rd, Hamilton@28 3rd rd. Zimmerman@45 4th rd to start that I really don't have comfortable Keepers for the round picked. I did pick up Puig who would cost me 17th rd pick and that's a no brainer. I have Christian Yelich who if kept would cost me 18th rd selection. My pitching was lights out from Grienke,Minor,Harvey, Corbin, Miller, Ryu, Cole, Gray....amazing huh? I completely whiffed using all my early picks towards batters because I hit HRs with Harvey/Minor,Miller,Ryu in 13th rd selections or later. Since Harvey is out he's obviously out for keeper. Minor costs 14th rd, Miller 18th rd. and Ryu 21st rd. Cole or Gray would be 18/ or 19th rd keepers. Other offense guys that I don't see as keeper worthy: Ramos C Adams 1b Kendrick 2b Hardy SS Crisp DH-now a 2nd Util Lind Util Hamilton SS/OF Do I keep Yelich at 18 since we have 3 year contracts for Keepers vs keeping say Stanton at 3rd rd or Zimmerman at 4th rd.? If I knew Adams had a full time spot open for 1b I'd consider keeping him. I feel like I have this thought out correctly with Puig/Yelich 17/18 cost and Miller at 18 rd cost. I offered up Ryu for draft pick in trade but doesn't seem anyone is interested...It's a 2batter 1pitcher keeper probably moving to 2/2 after this year. So I thought 21st rd for Ryu would be a great future keeper at his cost in draft pick. Who do you like at 4? Guessing Trout/Cabrera will be off the board then how preranks have 3-6 are McCutchen,Goldschmidt,CarGonzalez, Chris Davis. Braun/Cano not included who were the 3/4 last year as I recall.

I dunno I believe I read it was the 59th pick? There's not a whole lot of good options there especially when you are working with the 59th slot as the starting point for your money to work with. You figure that leaves them a College player to draft and hope develops. I am also waiting for Baltimore to sign another QO...Santana now since they went with Cruz vs Morales who must have been seeking 3-4years and wouldn't come down. So it all depends then do you say dumb signing then Cruz 1 year vs. 59th pick or Smart signing Santana at 59th pick and smart signing Cruz for what? 90th pick?

This is one of the reasons why I would absolutely be out there engaging other clubs on trades if that deal could net you a potential long term solution at 3B. If Stephen Drew re-signs in Boston, is Will Middlebrooks available? Nick Franklin and Brad Miller are apparently available in Seattle...can either of them play 3B? Is Nick Delmonico a legitimate long term solution at 3B after Aramis leaves? To me, even if the deal had to include Aramis, I would be willing to get younger at the position as I feel he is close to breaking down for good. While not necessarily punting on 2014, an Aramis deal that would net us a potential long term solution at 3B is the kind of forward thinking I would like the Brewers FO to consider. I think I seen a piece on MLBTR about Seattle likely to trade an infielder before the season begins, probably Ackley, Miller, or Franklin, which probably depends on the overall offer and who wins their spot on the team. The problem is those guys are 2b/SS/3b options who would still leave us with Gennett and Weeks. Unless the team makes the trade for one of the three and dump Weeks altogether and run out Gennett or the winner of the three. You at least have a 2b/SS/ maybe 3b option then. And who are you giving up in return? It kinda reads like Seattle wants a dependable #3 veteran which to me would read Lohse first. Now, I'd be willing to part with Lohse for a 2b/SS like Franklin but the fan base will question the push forward to compete this year without Lohse. (this may require Smith or Thornburg standing out in Spring Training to be a #5) And in Seattle's front if they wanted a #3 starter why not sign Garza? Considering Lohse is about the same amount of money. Maybe 2years vs. 4 though gets it done.

The Jack Z comments, it would work out better if today he DFA'd Montero clearly removing him from any of their future plans. 40lbs! in 4months basically? Maybe PEDs didn't just make him a stand out Prospect but also kept him from sitting on his rear-end and eating food. A team should be able to dock his pay for this kind of weight gain. Literally 50% of his pay imo. 10lbs weight gain you get a pass. over 10 to 25 you lose 25% of your pay. 25+ and it's 50%. They are being paid to be professional athletes and you take an offseason off and gain 40lbs? He'll spend the entire first half losing that weight before he even returns to being bad. Some kind of example should be made from him because not only did he do PEDs but now he's ignored his fitness, sign of a guy who clearly has accepted cashing it in sitting on the bench. And for those who think well he can just go and lose the 40lbs before the start of the season? yeah because losing weight that fast sure is healthy.... Edit Adding: Read that Yasiel Puig reported to camp +27lbs I believe. How, do these guys gain this weight like that? Aren't you in the gym working out/running in the offseason? I get 10lbs maybe even 15 but almost 30lbs in less than half a year? As a top tier talent athlete like Puig? And he's my keeper in fantasy, so this stinks I hope he doesn't settle in to being a 25-30HR player with less than 10SBs and a swing for the fences .245-.255 BA.

Simmons hit 17HRs last year. Nevermind being worth 4WAR or more than Segura defensively alone before adding to the WAR at the plate. That's a lot of ground for Segura to catch up to with the bat when he isn't seen as much more than a 10HR hitter. Since when do HR's drive WAR? Simmons also had a OBP below .300 and a SLG below .400. Simmons had a 4.7 WAR last year, Segura had a 3.4 So I don't get why you're trying to break down WAR in this way. Simmons is safer as he's an exceptional defender. I don't think he's going to rate as good as he did last year moving forward, but that's my opinion. We've got one big league year to go off of so far. Same with Segura. Not saying HRs drive WAR, but when you look at Offensive Stats and contract negotiations Simmons as a SS with his Defensive superiority...he can add Power hitting to that for a SS? And Simmons is someone that has speed and can beat out his share of infield hits, there's going to be years Simmons has a high BABIP and likely hit .325 alone. Take that season and 15-20HRs and tell me how his WAR isn't driven up?

Simmons hit 17HRs last year. Nevermind being worth 4WAR or more than Segura defensively alone before adding to the WAR at the plate. That's a lot of ground for Segura to catch up to with the bat when he isn't seen as much more than a 10HR hitter. And the contract break down reads 5/29mil then 2/28 which for a guy who likely wins Gold Glove at SS every year for the next decade you know you're getting your money back. I say it that way because if we extend Segura we're talking that 2/28mil in FA years for a SS/2b who needs to have a better than average bat to be worth the money. And 2nd half as we know wasn't better than average. He's not worth what Simmons got in his deal at this point. Simmons defensive value on the field is just off the charts.

In his case it was what year 3 of Arb? Not a fan of the deal. 9/10 mil then 18/19/21/23mil? I don't even think of Bailey as much more than a #3 starter. And this division's offense in the next couple seasons I believe will expose him as the 4ERA guy maybe 4+ than the lucky 3.5/6ish ERA guy he appears. Personally with extensions Monty, I feel like you do them Arb year 1. Whether it's buy the 3years of arb control and extend beyond or, during that year you extend buying the last 2years of control and extend beyond. It really depends on the age of the player too like Trout/Harper in their case, it's a no brainer to offer some contract extension maybe 10years at that before you even come close to Arb. Maybe Homer played his cards right, don't look too good until you reach your arb years and then put up 2 consecutive good years so you can feed the minds of ownership you're worth a long term extension with high paying FA dollars in the end of it. 21/23/+25mil option? Really? Breaks down age years to this: 28:9mil 29:10mil 30:18mil 31:19mil and then at 32,33 21/23mil! The Reds were a Year Late on this extension. I just don't like BIG money in to a FA beyond age 32 not top dollar money of a contract heading in to age 33 season. It's an obvious payout on what you've done and not on what you are projected to do at those age years. When Homer is the 4ERA guy I think he is this will be one of those contracts the Reds can't give away to somebody with the final 2/44mil of it and even the final 3/63mil on it. Garza gets 12.5mil for 4years and Bailey's jumps from 10mil to 18? 19? At the moment I'm just going to guess that puts his 16/17 year money around 35-40th highest paid players for that year. Which begs the question how high would you rank Bailey overall in all of Baseball? Is he a top 50 player? To me heck no.

We have 5 years left to free agency. I still look at Austin Jackson going year to year posting 5WAR(400k) 5WAR(440k) 5.5WAR(500k) 3.4WAR(3.5mil) and now what does he get? 6mil Year 5. I mean based on that kind of progression 5WAR likely nets him 9mil under 4WAR 8.5mil year 6. All told with 9mil in mind that is 19.44mil for his last 5 years before Free Agency. And that is with the risk being on the player not on the team. He's why I don't believe in jumping to a quick buyout of control years. The Brewers if they worked out a deal to buy out these 5 years I'd only expect it to total 20mil maximum with the FA years being in the 8-10mil range but the final year it's an option. I just feel the next two years are 550k ish a piece roughly so 1.1mil., it is just best to sit and wait those two years and make the extension for the arb years/ 2FA years with a 3rd option. You would clearly know what you have and how to price him. Your two years closer to FA so buying 2 years FA then makes only a 5year risk with a known commodity then and the 3rd FA year as an option. I just see no reason to sign Segura to a true deal unless it's included 2 FA years. So if you did that today that is 7years guaranteed money. Making the 2nd FA year an option? Still you've guaranteed 6years to Segura only gained 1 year of added team control all that based on 1+year of playing time? The only way I consider that deal is if it's 6years 25-27mil. and 7th year option at 8mil. It'd probably be structured like: 14: 800k 15: 1.5mil 16: 3mil 17: 4.5mil 18: 6.5mil 19: 8.5-9mil 20: 8.5-9mil option Or my idea wait 2years 1.1mil Segura is the .750OPS SS 12-14HRs 40SB guy 16:3.5mil 17:5.5mil 18:8mil 19:10mil 20:11mil 21:11mil option That's then 5/39 with chance of 6/50 Help me out here if you think the guess in money is wrong or about on. I'd rather save 1mil these two years and knowing what you have only to spend roughly 6mil more over a 4year frame plus then gain 1 more year of locking Segura in contract. See I'm saying Good Segura not under contract until he reaches Arb will only cost 6mil more for the same contract we would give him today. Only, we aren't risking 8-9mil in a FA year that bad Segura .640OPS the next two years would be guaranteed should we give him one today.

Pretty reassures my stance on the idea of signing Hart was going to be a bad one. Any week now news will likely break Hart will start the season on the DL.

I let a random number generator pick my teams I got Kansas City and San Francisco Edited after catching the 1-14 15-28 part of select teams.

Thanks Colby, very informative. And just from reading that you still have to wonder why, why they didn't take Fernandez or at least Guerrieri? You also wonder where Jungmann's Command went last year if he was in one of the best command candidates? Colby any kind of new names popping up in to 1st rd mention?

Kemp played in 399 straight games and then in May 2012 he went down with a "Hamstring injury" at that time he was batting: .359/.446/.726/ 1.173 12HRs in 34 games 140PAs 118ABs Since then he's accumulated 599 PAs .276/.328/.436/.764 17HRs and just 16SBs. I just don't like behind the numbers his 2011 season and start to 2012 to me stands out as not the norm. Now he has multiple injuries behind him ankle/hamstring/shoulder joint issue.... How is it a good idea to take a guy on being paid to be 2011 who was healthy then who's cressed his prime and should eventually begin his decline? He's not a defensive stalwart. Why can't we go with our own Khris Davis and cheer him on for 525k this year? I'll wager $50 now with anyone Davis hits more HRs than Kemp this year.

There's no doubt in my mind by signing Jimenez the Orioles will now sign Morales. This is a scary deal on Balitmore's part. It's more than likely going to end bad for them. If Jimenez pitches to a 4ERA throughout the deal then Baltimore wins. I just see 4.5 maybe worse forthcoming on a tanked out year when he's just lost it as previously done before.

I'll lie in waits as I don't watch the amateurs play I would only be going on what I find online and read. If you don't find 15 to participate I'll take 2 leftover teams.

And again the Dodgers signed that Cuban defect to play 2b and also..was it Justin Turner as insurance? Who imo is better than Weeks at this stage. There's just no way Kemp becomes a Brewer in a trade. And I don't want him. I have my wonders about Steroids in his MVP year that somehow he got away with it while Braun was tested positive. Because like Braun, suddenly his body can't hold up to every day play.....PED/being able to play through injury. It's my opinion and sure it can't be proven but...Manny Ramirez? I read the list of Players associated with PEDs and connections occur such as ARod and in my opinion Manny. So to me there's that, I have the suspicion Kemp's true greatness lies with PEDs. And I believe it was more in the Performance Enhancing but due to the usage and now being off of it his body is weak and breaks down easily. I just don't want another 50 or more game suspension for a guy you would be looking at to be MVP like in the League....besides already being paid like one. Also, I just don't see whom the Brewers can offer to the Dodgers that would entice them to trade with us. Gomez/Braun is a sideways move for both clubs. Your not giving up Segura, and even the idea of Lucroy isn't happening being he's the public's de facto Captain on this team. Pitching? Ha. Any of our Prospects? why and who? Our best are OFs..um something LA doesn't need. There's just no fathomable way a deal for Kemp can happen between our teams.

I don't know how many other players started at 2b last season but if it were truly just Weeks and Gennett then 39 Games total were thrown by LH Starters. And while Gennett was very poor vs LHP all-told his ABs vs LH Starters was to the tune of .296/.321/.407 This compared to: .195/.300/.327 by Weeks in a much, much larger sample size. And again, when going against a LH Starter you can put Gennett 8 in the order he'll see 2 PAs maybe 3 with the pitcher batting behind him. If Gennett is a contact hitter say the likes of Fernando Vina he'll be fine when he sees the pitcher more and more. I don't get the argument in this when posters are complaining how you can't have 2 2b only guys to plattoon on a team, and you have the best option from the LH side which accounts for 3/4 of the Platoon starts? Where's your solution? You want to keep Weeks? Or you want to keep Gennett? 1/4 starts or 3/4 starts? Something is missing here no? 11mil or less than 3mil for the next 4years? I'm sorry but 2+WAR 2b that don't come up through our system aren't just out there in the scrap heaps to sign. I figure Gennett is a 2WAR 2b give or take a WAR. I don't see him being a negative WAR when he hits RHP so well that accounts for 3/4 of the season. Are we in a Video Game world? Are every single position player that suits up for Milwaukee supposed to OPS .800+? Sorry I think that's too low .900+? I feel like those against Gennett believe there's .800+OPS 2b sitting at home reading this forum waiting to be signed. They don't need to be platooned either they will OPS over .800 no matter what side of the plate they bat from. Or even better, are they hoping there's a .735OPS guy out to be signed yeah cause that's a big improvement over Gennett's expectations? Is the guy a Gold Glove? Then yeah that's a big improvement. Name the Gold Glover out there for me to sign though? Gennett is this team's best option for 2014. There's nothing in the last 2 seasons of Weeks that can be argued against that.

Yes true but at the same time they can trade a player for slot money to bring them to all the way up to 3.3mil. And no penalty at all. Or at the very least under the penalty of where they can't sign a player for over 250k. Which can't be much if they don't put any more money in to the international signings. At which point I think the penalty would be 500k max. Considering 800k set the team record I don't think being limited to 500k max would be a problem for the reward Lara can bring.

Yeah we had a long lengthy discussion about Segura and the Brewers seeking out an extension. I think news broke out about the team having approached Segura's agent on an extension in Mid May? I could just go look back on my posts history to find this out. I was one of the very few who said no way too soon unless it was of some serious long term discount for 8years...I think I said 8years maybe 40-45mil total? I believe in Segura and not what we saw in his 2nd half offensive numbers. While I think his fast start was over his head I think an overall season line and OPS of .752 is what is to be expected out of him. give or take 35pts depending on running in to a couple more HRs or taking 4-6 more walks one year and not in another year. Either way he's a 3WAR SS. So there's a good part of me that would love to lock a 3WAR+ SS up for the next 7-8years....But He plays SS which gets run in to by oncoming baserunners trying to break up a double play(Jose Reyes last year was it?) And Segura is a SB threat so he's also diving in to 2b or 3b numerous times(heck 1b even) and that brings a lot of serious injury potential. Think about Weeks and his ankle? What if that kind of injury is all it takes for Segura to be a .750OPS 40SB 3WAR SS down to a .645OPS 15SB 0WAR SS? I just feel and fear that athletic type SSs like Segura will run in to more injuries throughout their career. I'd personally let Segura play through his first year of Arb and at that point no matter the additional cost for what would have been year 4,5,6,7 in this extension talk, proceed then with extension talks and give him what the value he's worth for 5years then. As to the Castro concerns and how Starlin regressed and Segura can become the next Castro, I never liked Castro and kinda felt he was an I in team. I think Segura is a teammate first. Plus, Chicago surrounded Castro after his extension with an absolute we are rebuilding phase which means are teams are going to suck for the next few years. Castro is paid and to me if you're expected to lose and paid already being the face of the franchise for years to come, why go out there put 100% on the line? Give your 100% effort? I'd imagine in towns he maybe hated traveling in just doing whatever possible to get back to his hotel the quickest. The point in saying this? Well Melvin and Co. have given the we are in it to win speech. So already Segura has more on the line even if he's extended this spring.

There are only limits in the sense that there will be penalties for going over but the limits won't prevent a team from over-spending in one particular offseason. The Yankees have already said they are going to spend much more than they are allowed this offseason which makes me think this guy's going to be a Yankee. Whatever the Brewers offer the Yankees will just tack on another 500K or so to get him to sign. This is true on the Yankees, and nobody knows who exactly they are tied in to if Lara is one of them. I've read the Yankees are planning on spending around 12-15mil in the international signing. They will be so far over that the penalty will be 100% I believe. So if they get in a bidding war with Milwaukee 3.2mil for Milwaukee and your 500k assumption its 3.2mil Milwaukee 7.4mil Yankees for this kid. Now, like I said I dunno if Lara is part of their 12-15mil plan in place which makes a few 100k extra nothing to worry about. But if he's a newcomer to their list of guys the Yanks are adding 7mil to their spending for him. This is some exciting stuff to watch unfold, I hope Milwaukee comes out the winner because believe you/me I will definitely follow Lara from day 1 as a Brewer in anticipation of a great future ahead.

I'm a Weeks basher and it goes like this: Poor BA, Ks too much. Sure he walks a bunch but walks don't net RBI when the team needs clutch hits. He's poor defensively. And he costs way more than he's worth. I'd take Bonifacio over Weeks and Bonifacio just got a Minor League contract so yeah Weeks is only worth League minimum. I mean, tell me what stands out after the ability to walk with Weeks? the HRs? they weren't there last season. The guy is on mass decline and I'm thinking next year he's going to be playing in Japan or retired completely. I truly hope the team/Melvin does the right thing and dumps Weeks on some other team or DFA's him before the season begins so we don't have to deal with this whole platoon crap at 2b.