brewcrewdue80
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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80
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I keep reading posts stating move ARam to 1b. play this guy at 3b. When has it ever been stated that playing ARam at 1b is an option? Dustin Ackley doesn't excite me one bit. Franklin/Miller are Seattle's SS/2b moving forward. They should feel lucky to have a backup in case of injury for Cano or whoever starts at SS. Think about it for a moment how good Franklin/Miller could be.... If you are proposing a trade to acquire them it would have to improve Seattle a bunch in a weak area, and they would have to want that player. How does trading Davis/Thornburg for Franklin help Milwaukee? It quite frankly ruins this entire season imo unless by some Spring Training miracle, Segura or ARam get injured for the entire season. The OF options aren't great after Davis, we would need an OF to replace him.
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No to Kemp. Too expensive for this team. Having Kemp and Braun would seem really cool but just recall the sudden injury bug both had last year. That's a big concern for me to tie up that much money in to two players who may be 30-60games miss a season players moving forward due to small nagging injuries. Also, Braun, Gomez and Kemp? Why? after it's been decided to move forward with Davis. Personally, your idea of trading for Kemp because next season all this money come's off Milwaukee's books is sound but that is a year from now. You have to give Davis his shot this year and maybe look in to this idea should he fail around the trade deadline(if we're contenders) or next offseason.
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Michael Brantley signs (w/CLE) for 4 years/$25 million
brewcrewdue80 replied to bork's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Good for him getting paid for the next 4 years. I'm quite surprised really. They bought out 2 arb years and his first 2 FA years for a guy that just seems ok. As someone said, he doesn't do anything great but he doesn't do anything bad either. I don't know what the going rate is for guys like that but I don't think 11mil that final year will happen. BRef has Brantley as an avg of 3WAR the last 2 years so I guess based on the going FA rate per WAR he's worth far more than this contract over the next 4years. -
Schafer is on this team to stay for defensive purposes in CF. And I like that we have a defensive gem as a backup more so than a potential .750OPS bat. without giving you much defensively.
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Oh My God. That would be Awesome! Did you watch the scout video? the 3rd or 4th swing of his in it? The speed? And yeah, his swing upper body has zero hesitation in it. It just starts and swoosh there goes the swing. Literally, my first thought is Alex Rodriguez in that swing. Take that in for a moment, Alex Rodriguez. Please, stay true! Adding that the Dominican League video posted his name as Yirver while the mlbtr has it as Gilbert. So I'll definitely be using both in google searches for more video down the road as July 2nd approaches.
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Brewers sign K-Rod - 1 year / 3.25 mil
brewcrewdue80 replied to chadomac's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Went over this statement in Rumors, he was put in many a situation where the outcome was all but decided. He wasn't needed to be a 2ERA guy when the score wasn't close. We will get the 2nd half KRod if we use him in situations when the score isn't close. -
Brewers sign K-Rod - 1 year / 3.25 mil
brewcrewdue80 replied to chadomac's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Yeah it is, for the moment, just like the Lohse rumors stopped this time of year last year. Just saying that I'm predicting once ST starts and the team watches Reynolds whiff at the plate they'll freak out and go back to their original idea of acquiring Ike Davis. The Bullpen is crowded at the moment and very much so if they keep Wang. So I foresee the Davis trade rumors heating up in a month's time. -
Brewers sign K-Rod - 1 year / 3.25 mil
brewcrewdue80 replied to chadomac's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think a bunch of us seen this coming. And let's just say that a bunch of us here can likely put down the next predictable move is Thornburg for Ike Davis next. Since the Bullpen seems crowded, and no doubt in my mind Mark A./Melvin will get scared like last season with signing Lohse late in ST and take on Davis to be 1b over Reynolds. Back to KRod. I'm a fan overall in the thinking he will be a positive addition to the Pen. He obviously answers the question to who closes if Henderson struggles/goes on the DL. It's a 1year deal so you figure he playing for his next contract. All in all, ok we are adding to that darkhorse team potential. -
2014 ZIPS projections; PECOTA projections (post #9)
brewcrewdue80 replied to endaround's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Easy. Segura was likely projected as Leadoff hitter while Gomez was likely projected at #7 in the lineup. But I agree how can Gomez not accumulate 2WAR alone on defense? So he's going to provide 0.0WAR in offense? -
Yes the numbers don't lie but what about home park advantage/disadvantage? Marlins stadium/Mariners stadiums they both aren't hitter friendly. And neither are the ballparks they have played in their divisions. Reynold's/Francisco's slash lines are mostly of the opposite playing in friendly homeparks/divisions. When you look at Morrison's line and that homepark/division he really stands out as far as career numbers go. Bump everything up 20pts lets say to a .269/.357/.447 line then is .824OPS I wouldn't think that is out of line. The only problem is Seattle gave up Carter Capps for Morrison. 3rd rd pick in 2011 mind you so while his numbers aren't great in appearance he possesses 10k/9 ability and just may have been rushed up too quickly due to all those Seattle pitching injuries. So to me if I'm Seattle and I'm asking for a player in return it comes around that kind of value. Probably like Burgos/Figaro/Kintzler/Nelson list of guys. Maybe Blazek/Hellweg even. Just my guess, I can't see Thornburg being traded away at this point unless it was for somebody truly helpful to the Brewers Roster future or present. And not just for a guy who's replacement level with the hopes he does better than that playing in Milwaukee.
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And hey may as well finish of the video with the mock 21:Alex Verdugo- Like his swing a ton problem is he looks good on the mound too. Could be Yovani Gallardo at the Plate when he makes the majors 22:Michael Cederoth-Motion looks good but his control seemed everywhere. 23: Cobi Johnson- Reads good. Looks okay his feet dance on the mound one pitch to the next side stepping then just a plain forward step so I wonder about control consistency. 24: Nick Burdi-no video 25: Derek Hill-I like his swing. Would be a great find in the 2nd pick if he fell. 26:Kyle Schwarber-No Video 27: Dylan Cease- Ok not enamored not at 12 ever. 28: Ti'Quan Forbes- No Don't see it. Pull hitter swing, probably would be good against FBs but breaking pitches? I see a long time in minors 29: Luke Weaver- no Video 30: Sean Reid-Foley- Not at 12 but great if with 2nd pick like Hill. I like what I see with some work to do but I see some serious action with the ball out of his hands. With some refinement he looks like a winning pick 31: Aaron Nola-No Video 32: Bradley Zimmer- Ugh, There are some good looking swings upper body. Lower body though needs a lot of work imo. Also has a pound it in to the ground looking swing vs. giving some lift/drive in the ball. Project for sure but could pay off big time. Wouldn't pick him 12th or 2nd pick 33:Brandon Finnegan-No Video That's it my amatuer Fan Assessment. Man personal picks go: Gatewood,Ortiz, Gordon, Aiken, Verdugo(Reach) at this point. With Hill and Foley as pray they fall to 2nd pick. Verdugo would be awesome as a 2nd pick by Milwaukee because of the two ways he could play and my Gallardo comparison
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And I decided to spend the time to watch the video of the Players ahead of the Sheffield in the mock: 11: Nick Gordon-Yes like what I see 10: Derek Fisher-No not thrilled 9: Luis Ortiz-Yes Looks like watching a RH version of Aiken 200IP guy 8: Tyler Beede- Not impressed and he's a college kid 7: Michael Gettys- No his swing is too upright 6: Jacob Gatewood-Yes quick looking swing/solid zone in it For a SS with Power potential as the article reads there's a lot that can go right with picking him 5: Trea Turner-No video 4: Tyler Kolek-Yes and Wow. 6'6" Sound motion and he really appeared to have no problem keeping the ball low in the zone. Please don't go to the Cubs! 3: Alex Jackson- Upper Body swing looks nice his lower body sway just seems a little off-balance. Fix some of that and yeah I like it. Don't need him and I won't cry if we don't get him 2: Jeff Hoffman- Looks good. Not as good as Kolek or Ortiz/Aiken. For whatever reason I see elbow/shoulder issues in his future in his motion and He's a college guy 1: Carlos Rodon- no video and obviously wont be there Milw so not really a need to put an opinion on him. Cool stuff to see the videos and actually not just be going by what I read as I'm now down on Toussant. FWIW with the current mock suggestions and whom I liking hopefully means a good chance to see Gordon,Ortiz,Aiken as the pick at 12. And Gatewood but my guess is he's gone well before our pick.
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http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/mlb-mock-draft-central-2014/ Mock draft central see all the mocks. I just want to say I'm looking at Bleacher Reports Jan 2nd mock which includes a lot of video. In it they mock Justus Sheffield as the Brewers pick. I don't know about picking Gary's Nephew considering the history but he did look solid to me in video. I watched the players video down below him to #20. Touki Toussant was immediately after and I got a bad vibe off of it. Wasn't impressed with the prep batters. Who stood out to me though. Brady Aiken. The delivery he has looks settled and completely not forcing the issue from pitch to pitch. Thoroughly impressed by the motion. He's the guy barring some crazy fall down by the top 4-6 in projections to us. I see Aiken being a 200IP rotation guy this team so desperately needs to draft and bring up.
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As I read the deal I get this: 10.5mil 2014-2017 500k bonus each year if 190IP in a season 2018 Option at 5mil to Milwaukee if he doesn't accumulate 110 starts over the 4years in contract or isn't on the DL to end 2017. 2018 1mil option if Garza misses 130(Paid days) in the 183 Paid days period of the regular season in any of the 4 seasons. Garza paid 13mil option in 2018 if he exceeds 110 starts and is not on the DL to end 2017. 2018-2022 2mil each year of deferred payments. Super contract! I mean 110 Starts in 4 years is hard. You're talking 32/33Starts most likely every full season so 128-132 total he will have max. That gives Garza only 90 days roughly on the DL to 110 days on the DL in 4 years. Obviously, the biggest concern of any SP contract was taken care of: missing a year due to injury(Tommy John) with just 1mil option in 2018! That to me should occur in all contracts! That language! 130days missed in a season results in ability to pick up a free year. As a fan I can cheer on any player who signs that type of contract because you're insuring the signing team you will give them a free year if you are injured for majority of one. Great, Great deal! Edit Add: Just think if Corey Hart had that language in his extension. He'd be playing for the Brewers this year at 1mil.
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2014 Qualifying Offers Discussion
brewcrewdue80 replied to brewcrewdue80's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
How is a guy who hasn't played 130games or more in the last 3 seasons worth your 1st rd draft selection? He's turning 31 so he's on the wrong side in the age department. I thought it was laughable he was offered the QO. Even without a draft pick cost, I'd have a hard time paying Drew 9mil a year. He's likely asking for 14mil per with draft cost. Drew was on the Boston Red Sox kool-aid this past season finding magic that shouldn't be expected to be there. My guess with Drew for his career moving forward is not one season over 130 games in the next 4 years. That he doesn't have 1 season of 3WAR in any of the 4 years. and 2 are in the 2WAR while the other 2 are 0-ish. What of any of that projection suggests giving up a draft pick? -
What I really like about Garza is not only the depth and wonder if Estrada goes 30 Starts in a season when has yet to do it but, Gallardo....What if Gallardo is a #4 SP with his loss in velocity? What if his shoulder is wearing thin and injury concern is there? Yo has 5 straight seasons of 30 starts or more. Maybe his time is coming for the wear and tear. and his 2013 was just foreshadowing it? Garza can be depended on as this team's #2 when he takes a mound. What I hope for is Lohse/Peralta to be there 33starts. What I don't believe is Gallardo/Garza/Estrada will make 33starts. At which point Thornburg/Smith/Nelson and who knows? Hellweg should control magically appear this year? Those 4 are in my mind capable to fill out the rotation should a DL stint happen to the 3 mentioned. 12.5mil a season while it isn't a little, it also isn't a lot. Not since his Rookie year has Garza's Season ERA been above 4. That's a better track record than Lohse that's for sure! We gave up a 1st rd pick and 11mil per for an older Lohse. Garza at 12.5mil per? No draft pick? Yeah How can anyone be upset about this deal? Those who are upset are the ones, that want a rebuild. Tear down the ML players of value for young talent and dream of that young talent being better together than what this team appears today? I was declaring that for sure. But I really never imagined Garza was a guy Milwaukee could attain...at least at a valuable cost. I had no reason to believe Garza wouldn't go for 14mil if not 15mil or more per season guaranteed. Which on a 100mil payroll seems too costly for someone who has injury concerns. I think the price is just right for us in the risk/reward factor. We now have Lohse/Garza as Playoff Experienced pitchers to hopefully digest veteran info to our younger pitchers just beginning their careers. Game On!
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I look at Billy Butler being exactly what the offense needs in the lineup if and when they decide to play it out as Segura,Braun #2, Butler #3, ARam #4, Lucroy #5. Butler's High OB and decent BA with moving Braun to #2 and his BA/OB would be menacing 2,3 with ARam 4 and Clutch Lucroy #5. The worry though is that everyone will hate the idea to bat Braun #2 and believe he's fixed in your #3 spot in the lineup. I just can't go with Gomez #2 trusting Segura and Gomez atop the lineup because the .300 OB potential would be killing us when .350+ OB guys are batting lower in the order. Personally, I like Braun's Power/Speed combo at #2 with ARam/Lucroy batting behind it. But add Butler and you can go either ARam 3 or Butler 3 the other 4 and that is 3 tough, tough outs in Butler,ARam,Lucroy to have to deal with. Nevermind if it is from the Stretch with Speedy Segura/Braun on top of it. The other aspect that plays in to all of this with Butler is that he has 1year guaranteed plus a 2nd year option. Let's face it with all our contracts, Lohse, Gallardo, ARam, Estrada even that really fits this appearing 2year window to field a ML club that is scary. But again, why would this move happen months later after the Aoki trade for Wil Smith? What is KC going to ask for in return? We suggest pitching cause we have it. But Thornburg? Jungmann? Nelson? That looks awful to me from KC's view because they lose Santana, and waste your 2years of James Shields by acquiring #5 Thornburg/Nelson maybe to make a playoff run? It's incredible to me they wouldn't sign Garza if they are looking at Playoff picture with getting a proven SP. If Butler is traded it will be either for a prospect way higher in ranking the Brewers don't have or for a very solid/proven SP to put in their #2/#3 in rotation. Not for the likes of Thornburg/Nelson/Jungmann those are depth players on a roster not players who make you contenders this year. Aoki imo really improved KC for his atop the lineup ability(something KC had nobody last year) as well as playing a position that was our 1b situation to them last year in RF. Awful. Huge upgrade for them and the outlook. Wil Smith is Thornburg right? they're interchangeable and replaceable, not your push for the Playoffs guys. So, to sum up, I don't have a clue how we can get Butler on this team. KC and Milw are in that same 81 win boat they need to find 1-3WAR more for their teams and Butler is 2-3WAR player that Milw would have to send 3-4WAR in areas of excess to make it work for KC. We sent the excess away already in Aoki. My only guess would be sending ARam/Weeks to KC for Butler and Moustakas? with say Nelson or Jungmann or a lot of cash. But that's crazy for our 3b situation no? not to mention how that really effects the lineup strength? Ok end rant/thinking out loud.
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2014 Bullpen arms (next step for DM)
brewcrewdue80 replied to PrinceFielderx1's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
What kind of roster room do we have for additional bullpen arms? Off the top of my head BP guys: Gorzellany, Smith, Henderson, Figaro, Thornburg, Kintzler, Blazek, Wooten, Hand. That's 9 and what of Hellweg/Nelson? Who else am I forgetting? That's 9 with 5 SPs so 14 leaves 11 position players for 25man somebody I named would have to be left out no? 8 Everyday Starters with Backup C, Utily IF, OF would be 11 there has to be more bench bats than that so less RPs. -
That has to be a very great looking deal to any team. 12.5mil/yr guaranteed with 1mil in incentives each year which if he reaches that incentive you figure you got 20mil or workhorse stuff out of him for 13.5mil that year. After last season, you lock up having a competitive 5 of Starters with 2 backups that should keep your team from tanking like May of last season. So if Gallardo struggles, Estrada/Garza can't make the year of 32starts, you have the depth to not skip a beat. Kudos to making this deal happen. It's going to be an interesting season. I can see this team being streaky and win 10-14 in row or lose 7-9 in a row. But in no way will this team win only 6 times in a calendar month. I hope Garza becomes special in Milwaukee. Let's see how this experiment of being legit contenders works.
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Hadn't posted in on this yet. I compare this deal to Anibal Sanchez's I was figuring Garza got Sanchez money just not as long a deal. We are paying roughly 3-4mil less per year than what Sanchez is making. That's great! How bad are the injury concerns? Because 3-4mil under expected value for 4years equates to pretty much 1 year of Sanchez pay? There must be a MLB-League-wide concern Garza will miss a year due to injury within 4-seasons. How healthy is Garza today? Will he be good to go come Spring Training? How do I see Garza performance-wise? We have a proven #3 pitcher. Not a Prospect with #3 ceiling we hope gets there, but a true #3 SP in our rotation. You put the rotation as Lohse, Gallardo, Garza, Peralta, Estrada and you look at the matchups now #3s-#5s during the regular season and feel good about it. You also feel good that with this rotation, you're not "Giving" a game to a team almost no matter any pitching matchup. You figure 2-3ERs a ton of Quality Starts by this staff and the offense being on the hook now give your pitchers the run support to make that enough. It should be. The other side to this signing is it's like signing 2BP guys. Thornburg and Smith you now figure are immediately planned in to Bullpen roles. Who goes to 8th inning? Do they swap between Righty/Lefty matchup in that role? I can think it's a good thing to figure out during ST what inning to pitch these 2. Along with Nelson or Hellweg. Burgos, Blazek I think the Bullpen will surprise and be strong this year. Really strong if these guys take to their roles and are found the right role to be pitched in of use. You wonder with that WAR figure by adding Garza do we gain 2WAR in SP and at the same time gain 1WAR in BP? I really like the signing and what it means for the Bullpen. The concerns if Thornburg or Smith would cut at as #5s are removed to just be successful out of the Pen. Nelson out of BP? There's a lot of talent there in those 3. We don't lose a draft pick! Here's the 13mil...out of the what? 20mil we're supposed to gain TV deal-wise? so no more of that, why are other teams opening up and we aren't crap. We just did. Can we go find a 1b now? Not Ike but someone of talent? It's going to be interesting how that unfolds. You know 1 of Thornburg,Nelson, and even Jungmann would seem expendable...what about 2 of the three used in a deal? I hope when it happens it's for someone better than Ike and someone that fans could get goosebumps seeing in the lineup.
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Tanaka to Yankees - 7/$155MM + $20MM posting fee
brewcrewdue80 replied to JohnBriggs12's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
How does the Rays' payroll look next season? The Pirates Payroll this season/next season? The key with those two teams was hitting on draft picks recently that joined their teams who haven't gotten expensive. And with the A's, Beane trades so often it works. But truthfully, the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers today their spending nets them 85wins+ without a blink of the eye in development. Any kind of developed player that joins their teams from their prospect ranks can make them 100win threat teams. That's where it's going so wrong competive balance. Yeah the Yankees haven't done much with their drafts. But let's see what happens in the next 4 years after what I believe was a strong 2013 draft class. -
Tanaka to Yankees - 7/$155MM + $20MM posting fee
brewcrewdue80 replied to JohnBriggs12's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
And I posted in the Tanaka thread elsewhere. More than Ryan Braun makes without ever throwing a pitch in the Minors or Majors. Yeah this should lead to a max exodus of American Ballplayers who can attract Japanese Professional teams to sign them and play there and then sign Massive Free Agent Contracts to come back here. Forget all that through the minors/6years of team control crap! If I had a son right now I wouldn't be think ML draft out of High School. No way. It's mindblowing to me Tanaka can make 22mil/year w/o any Minor League/Major League experience. To skip paying his dues with a team before hitting the big pay-day here. Wow, just wow. 22mil/yr...I mean remember 2 years ago it was Milwaukee feeling like it was making a decent offer to Grienke at 20mil. per year. There is no tv deal money that can make Milwaukee offer something like this kind of contract. Maybe it's time to find a 2nd team to root for because clearly Milwaukee has zero competitive chance in MLB today. -
I know this team can be competitive and that basis from the quote in the article of the Brewers being bottom 5 in the NL is really selling this team short. The problem with Milwaukee's team is that it doesn't have depth as well as Front-line Pitching. Going against our own division and the pitching matchups, you don't sit there and say yeah Lohse is better than the top 2 of the Reds/Pirates/Cards. Neither is Gallardo. Then you go to the #3s-5s and it falls around the same and that is with a 100% healthy season. Lohse or Gallardo go down and you move everyone up 1 in the rotation is looks worse matchup-wise putting Peralta or Estrada as our #2 vs the division #2s. And let's say we get by the Starters even or even slightly ahead then we move to the 8th/9th inning guys.... Chapman,Rosenthal and Pittsburgh's continual successful Closer in the role, they're ahead of Henderson. Really don't feel like the team is hurting offensively even with the 2b/1b situation and Khris Davis being inserted over Aoki. You just add up in the division matchups the what is it? 22games? And you figure the Starters of the other teams win 10 games to our 6 and the Bullpens their's win/don't blow 4 games to our 2. So going H2H in your division and expecting to compete in it, going 8-14 3 times puts you 18 games behind the top of the competition. Each W/L is 2 games so 9 games is really all it comes down to where I see us at vs. the Cards/Pirates/Reds. Is their 9 games our offense can explode and win a game that on paper vs. Wainwright/Latos/Liriano you don't expect? Or vs. Wacha/Cueto/Cole? Does our bullpen actually escape a game it looks like it was about to let slip away? Do we sneak a game away from their bullpen with amazing clutch ABs? I think it can happen vs. 1 of the top 3 teams, just not vs. all 3. My guess is it will be vs. the Reds which is who I'm already thinking will be 3rd in the division. And we need to remain healthy with hope that maybe a player or two from the top 3 spends some time on the 60day DL.
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Brewers sign Mark Reynolds (Minor League Deal)
brewcrewdue80 replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Agreed to this post. Davis good or bad comes with a 3year likely salary escalating commitment on a high risk/potential reward deal that was going to cost a low risk/solid reward player. Meanwhile, Hunter Morris still gets a year to season and join the club, Juan Fran gets to have his look extended with that supposed new approach, Kendry Morales may or may not be signed until after the June Draft so who knows? maybe he is the 1b fix come late June. And if Reynolds/Juan Fran fail, the Morris experiment never develops, next offseason is where we can address 1b once again with I dunno out of a list of potential FAs....Maybe even Hart!? There is no doubt Reynolds will be better than the 1b for Milwaukee last season. No Doubt. Is it going to be great? No. but the cost will be 2-2.5mil. Value in money spent. This 1year deal is a true band-aid and a good use of one under the team's current 1b situation. It doesn't cost 2 or 3years commitment while blocking the team's Minor's prospects due to that contract. -
Brewers sign Mark Reynolds (Minor League Deal)
brewcrewdue80 replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Put it this way Mark Reynolds is the Alex Gonzalez+Yuni Betancourt signings of last offseason rolled in to 1 player. I'll take Reynolds whiffs at 4 pitches per AB vs watching Yuni pop/ground/fly out on the very first pitch 40% of the time.

