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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Among 156 International League pitchers with at least 20 IP, Enoli comes in at... 1.76 FIP (2nd to Paul Skenes) | 1.31 ERA (7th) | 41.5 K% (2nd to Paul Skenes) | 19.6 SwStr% (1st) | .153 Avg Against (5th) | 56.8 GB% (7th) | 8.1 LD% (1st)
  2. sveumrules
    This evening's members of the exclusive Zero Club... Anfernny Reyes (ACL) 3.0 IP | 2 H | 0 BB | 4 K (*one unearned run*) Dikember Sanchez (ACL) 1.0 IP | 0 H | 0 BB | 2 K Blake Whiting (A) 2.0 IP | 1 H | 0 BB | 1 K Bayden Root (A) 1.0 IP | 1 H | 1 BB | 1 K Bo Bowman (AA) 3.1 IP | 0 H | 0 BB | 3 K Sam Gardner (AA) 3.0 IP | 0 H | 1 BB | 3 K Harold Chirino (AAA) 1.0 IP | 0 H | 1 BB | 0 K Rob Zastryzny (AAA) 1.0 IP | 1 H | 0 BB | 1 K DL Hall (AAA) 1.0 IP | 0 H | 1 BB | 1 K Evan McKendry (AAA) 2.0 IP | 1 H | 1 BB | 1 K Janson Junk (AAA) 2.1 IP | 2 H | 2 BB | 2 K
  3. sveumrules
    Yeah, Payamps had one blowup outing on April 3rd (4 ER in 0.1 IP). His other 12 appearances over the first five weeks covered 11.1 IP scoreless. He then had two outings before and after coming off the bereavement list where he gave up 4 ER over 1.1 IP. Since then he has 3.1 perfect frames with 5 K / 0 BB. That the bullpen has managed a +3.86 Win Probability Added (2nd in MLB) without Devin, plus Payamps and Uribe struggling, is pretty remarkable considering those were three of their four high leverage arms to close last season along with Megill (who also has missed a couple weeks this year).
  4. sveumrules
    Haha, that was definitely my favorite nugget when comparing the numbers.
  5. sveumrules
    Brewers offense is currently tied with the Phillies for 4th in MLB with a 115 wRC+ so far this year. Their 4.98 R/G is currently 3rd in MLB. For more contextual numbers they are 4th in PAs with RISP so they are putting a lot of pressure on pitchers and have batted to a 141 wRC+ (2nd in MLB) in those RISP situations. Sure, it sucks they got shutout yesterday, but it’s been way more boom than bust up to this point. The best run of recent Brewers offense I could think of off the top of my head was the 2nd half of 2018 when Yelich went nuclear. Brewers position players posted a 114 wRC+ over those 65 games.
  6. sveumrules
    Bryce Harper has a .913 career OPS in MLB and .941 in the minors. Brice Turang has a .642 career OPS in MLB and .740 in the minors. Both are left handed hitters named Bryice, but the similarities pretty much end there.
  7. sveumrules
    Halfway to the All Star Break seems like a good time as any to see which teams have done the most (or the least) to improve their postseason chances through the first 30% or so of the season. Format is Team | preseason FanGraphs Playoff Odds | today FanGraphs Playoff Odds | difference. NATIONAL LEAGUE BIG GAINERS PHI: 54.6% | 98.5% | +43.9% MIL: 30.0% | 67.9% | +37.9% CHC: 41.3% | 62.4% | +21.1% ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE SDP: 41.6% | 53.3% | +11.7% LAD: 93.3% | 99.5% | +6.2% ATL: 98.3% | 98.7% | +0.4% WAS: 0.2% | 0.4% | +0.2% COL: 0.0% | 0.0% | +/- 0.0% PIT: 16.2% | 12.1% | -4.1% BIG FALLERS NYM: 29.9% | 17.0% | -12.9% SFG: 43.4% | 28.5% | -14.9% CIN: 23.1% | 8.0% | -15.1% ARI: 51.2% | 33.8% | -17.4% MIA: 28.8% | 0.3% | -28.5% STL: 48.2% | 19.6% | -28.6% AMERICAN LEAGUE BIG GAINERS KCR: 13.0% | 57.7% | +44.7% BAL: 52.8% | 87.8% | +35.0% CLE: 33.4% | 62.4% | +29.0% NYY: 72.0% | 96.4% | +26.4% ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE SEA: 60.1% | 67.6% | +7.5% CHW: 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5% OAK: 2.5% | 0.2% | -2.3% BOS: 22.9% | 19.3% | -3.6% MIN: 65.3% | 56.8% | -8.5% DET: 28.1% | 18.1% | -10.0% BIG FALLERS TEX: 37.9% | 23.6% | -14.3% LAA: 16.8% | 1.8% | -15.0% TBR: 59.6% | 37.9% | -21.7% TOR: 49.0% | 18.0% | -31.0% HOU: 85.9% | 52.5% | -33.4%
  8. sveumrules
    Crochet definitely has the kind of stuff to start a playoff game. I’d guess the Sox will be asking for something like a Cease package with Garrett having more team control left, but less of a track record. And track record is the main issue, his IP totals going back to college are… 2018 (63.2 IP) 2019 (65.0 IP) 2020 (9.1 IP) 2021 (54.1 IP) 2022 (0.0 IP) 2023 (25.0 IP) 2024 (57.2 IP already) It’d probably be irresponsible to throw him much more than 100 IP this year given his past workloads, and you’d likely still need to limit him to around 140-150 IP next year to build him up gradually towards hopefully handling a full 30 GS/180 IP for his final two seasons before FA.
  9. sveumrules
    Cots has Berrios down at 4/84 remaining after this year - $18M each in 25/26 then $24M each in 27/28. There’s no way I’d want to tie up that much payroll space (and give up a big prospect outlay) for a guy who is sporting a 4.87 xERA and 4.63 FIP under the hood of his 2.98 ERA to start the season and as recently as 2022 looked completely cooked at 5.23 ERA / 5.11 xERA / 4.55 FIP,
  10. sveumrules
    Nashville scored one bottom first via Tyler Black HBP/steal and Isaac Collins single, then scored another bottom two on a Brewer Hicklen bomb. Oliver Dunn has started bottom three with a single trying to break the 2-2 tie.
  11. sveumrules
    Manuel Rodriguez with a decent start at 5 IP | 2 ER | 5 H | 0 BB | 3 K. See if he comes out for the 6th with a pretty efficient 66 pitches. And a Daniel Guilarte single/steal followed by a Yophery Rodriguez bomb has just evened the score at two apiece bottom of five.
  12. sveumrules
    Eduarqui Fernandez double, Dylan O’Rae single and Jadher Areinamo sac fly finally got the TRats on the board top of six. Unfortunately Manfredi ran into some tough luck bottom of four when he compounded Tayden Hall and Luke Adams errors with a three run bomb. Patricio Aquino has followed up by working around a pair of hits and a walk to post two scoreless so far.
  13. sveumrules
    Jacob Misiorowski Highest upside in the system.Robert Gasser Helping the MLB rotation now.Tyler Black Good 1B/DH insurance policy.Jeferson Quero Contender for #1 if not for injury.Brock Wilken Love how much power he generates from such a simple set up.Mike Boeve Can't imagine too many guys have two different minor league stops with .500 batting averages.Yophery Rodriguez Highest upside of the hitters yet to reach AA.Luis Lara Holding his own as one of only three teenage hitters in the Midwest League.Cooper Pratt Solid start to full season ball.Josh Knoth Stuff has lived up to the billing.Eric Brown Jr I still believe.Carlos F Rodriguez Put together his two best starts of the year (11 IP | 2 ER | 15 K | 2 BB) leading up to voting, hopefully a sign he is starting to figure things out at the AAA level.Bradley Blalock Getting good results in his first exposure to AA.Tyler Woessner Dominated AA, but got bombed in his first two AAA starts.Logan Henderson Just needs to stay healthy and stack innings the rest of the summer.Gregory Barrios Hot start at A+ has pushed him to the top of the second tier of hitters yet to reach AA for me.Luke Adams Intriguing mix of OBP, power and speed (low batting average notwithstanding)Dylan O'Rae Just keeps on getting on base and stealing bags.Juan Baez Just keeps on hitting (and getting caught stealing bags)Craig Yoho YO-HO!! YO-HO!! YO-HO!!
  14. sveumrules
    Drew Smyly with three perfect rehab innings against the TRats. Mark Manredi was cruising through two before running into trouble and surrendering three runs in the third. With Smyly lifted Jadher Areinamo and Gregory Barrios have notched back to back one out singles here top of four, but a Luke Adams 6-4-3 ends things just like that.
  15. sveumrules
    What are you trying to make those numbers do?
  16. sveumrules
    93 and 118 career PAs are already tiny samples. If you want to get minuscule and look at 2024 only it’s… Turang (20 PA) 235/350/294 (94 wRC+) Monasterio (13 PA) 182/308/455 (118 wRC+)
  17. sveumrules
    Turang career vs LHP (93 PA) 198/293/210 (48 wRC+) Monasterio career vs LHP (106 PA) 278/377/400 (118 wRC+) Brice isn't going to play every inning of every game, so best to give him an occasional rest when there is a lefty on the mound.
  18. sveumrules
    Weird series of moves. Would rather see Wiemer play everyday in AAA and give whatever sporadic 5th OF ABs happen to come up to Roller. No issue with the Vieira DFA, but kinda surprised at Blalock getting the aggressive promotion. Will be interesting to see how his usage shakes out. Last pitched 05/15 in Biloxi so should be ready to go for multi inning bullpen stints or maybe they'll start him on Wednesday to push Freddy back to the Red Sox series and get a couple extra days rest.
  19. sveumrules
    Pretty rare for deals of any consequence to go down in May, June or July until the last week or so before the deadline. The Adames trade was May 21st back in 2021 but there were kind of extenuating circumstances there with Wander Franco waiting in the wings to take over SS. I'd love it if Arnold could pull an out of the blue early blockbuster for a SP, but I'm definitely not counting on it. As it stands, I think Bob Gas (11 IP | 1 ER so far) is going to be the big addition to the rotation for May and beyond.
  20. sveumrules
    By dealing prospects at the deadline?
  21. sveumrules
    First 12 Games with Yelich 135 wRC+ | 6.33 R/G Next 23 Games w/o Yelich 102 wRC+ | 4.22 R/G Last 11 Games with Yelich 132 wRC+ | 5.64 R/G Last year's Braves came in at 125 wRC+ and 5.85 R/G, so I would still expect some regression from the numbers the Brewers have posted over the 23 games with Yelich active, but even during the 23 games he was out of the lineup they still performed at essentially a league average level so I would estimate the floor for this team as being considerably higher than the 92 wRC+ they posted last year. Even if they hit to a 100 wRC+ the rest of the way out from here, the +37.0 batting runs they have already banked this season entering today would represent about a ten win improvement over the -61.2 batting runs they posted last year.
  22. sveumrules
    On the one hand - Yeli has missed half the season so far, Mitchell has missed the whole season, Chourio/Sal/Perkins have struggled with the bats, Wiemer regressed and got hurt, Jake Bauers has played nine games in the OF - sounds pretty dire on the surface. On the other hand - their 105 wRC+ as a group is 9th in MLB among OF, their +2.9 BsR is 3rd and their +2 OAA is tied for 8th - add it all up and the Brewers 2.2 OF WAR comes in 9th despite issues with health and/or productivity at the plate pretty much across the board. My guess right now would be that Perkins gets optioned when Mitchell is ready to come back so the Brewers can maintain their depth as odds are Blake will be needed subsequently for some reason or another. If Garrett stays healthy through the end of the season and/or Sal & Jackson show progress at the plate I could see an OF (likely Perkins) moved in the offseason, but things are probably still too tenuous currently to make a deal in season.
  23. sveumrules
    Ortiz 2024: 1.4 WAR Burnes 2024: 1.6 rWAR
  24. sveumrules
    Small sample of only 20 PA, but in the six games since Jackson’s reset he has hit 278/350/444 (129 wRC+) with a 10.0 BB% and 20.0 K%.
  25. sveumrules
    We should note that the relief corps has done a solid job this season (an ERA of 3.77), which is 13th in the majors. But that’s not exactly lights out like in 2023, While the raw ERA isn’t overly impressive, Brewers relievers are currently 3rd in MLB at +3.73 WPA and second in MLB with 2.5 rWAR. Their 49 “shutdown” appearances are tied for 6th most while their 18 “meltdown” appearances are 3rd fewest. Or for more of an old school flair, their 17 Wins are most in MLB while their 5 Losses are tied for 2nd fewest. All five of Hudson (17 ERA- | 59 FIP- | +1.56 WPA), Megill (38 ERA- | 71 FIP- | +1.09 WPA), Milner (41 ERA- | 88 FIP- | +0.71 WPA), Koenig (77 ERA- | 106 FIP- | 0.44 WPA) and Peguero (77 ERA- | 56 FIP- | +0.43 WPA) have been effective in terms of run prevention, peripherals and leverage. Payamps has been unscored on in 13 of his 16 appearances. The three clunkers tanked his rate stats (126 ERA- | 106 FIP-), but he’s still been a slight positive contextually at +0.12 WPA. White and Vieira are nothing special but both are fine to mop up low leverage innings as needed. I’d leave Misio in the Biloxi rotation for now to stack innings and hope he makes some gains with his command before a possible August or September call up.
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