sveumrules

I never said Turang is a platoon guy who should not be wasting AB against lefties, I try to stay away from bi-modal thinking and hyperbole. You said the move was made “just for kicks” so I explained what I believed to be the reasoning behind it and pointed out that subbing in Monasterio (team best +.126 WPA) helped facilitate the improbable comeback (2.8% Win Probability when he entered) in the first place.

The Brewers owe him the $4M no matter what so it’s either 1/16 or 2/34, an $18M decision for Hoskins.

Hoskins gets the $4M buyout either way - whether he opts out after this year or the mutual option isn’t exercised after next year - so “only” an $18M decision.

Yes, they almost won the game. A contributing factor to them almost winning the game was Monasterio walking in both his PAs. His +.126 WPA was literally the highest on the team last night. The move wasn’t made “just for kicks”, it was made because Murph thought Monasterio pinch hitting for Turang in that spot gave them their best chance to come back in the game…and he was right. If Turang can’t handle being pinch hit for late in a blowout, well that sounds like he just needs to put on the Big Boy Pants ™

Lots of factors play into it. The composition of the player pool changes somewhat steadily throughout the season and then pretty drastically from year to year as well. Certain leagues are historically more hitter or pitcher friendly based on geography, stadium sizes, etc. Even the “juiciness” of the baseball itself isn’t constant and contributes to the offensive environment of each league. Early season weather also tends to suppress offense and then things pick up as the temperature rises. Here are the average runs per game and OPS for each of the Brewers full season affiliate leagues over the last few years from BRef for some degree of context… Carolina League 2021: 5.21 R/G | .721 OPS 2022: 5.01 R/G | .704 OPS 2023: 4.68 R/G | .687 OPS 2024: 4.59 R/G | .656 OPS (steady decline) Midwest League 2021: 4.93 R/G | .721 OPS 2022: 4.63 R/G | .710 OPS 2023: 4.60 R/G | .702 OPS 2024: 4.62 R/G | .702 OPS (most consistent) Southern League 2021: 4.47 R/G | .714 OPS 2022: 5.01 R/G | .752 OPS 2023: 5.09 R/G | .740 OPS 2024: 3.82 R/G | .650 OPS (crazy drop this year) International League 2021: 4.80 R/G | .743 OPS 2022: 4.98 R/G | .750 OPS 2023: 5.50 R/G | .794 OPS 2024: 5.18 R/G | .763 OPS (big jump with ABS in effect)

The Brewers were down 5-0 with a 2.8% Win Probability when Monasterio pinch hit for Turang against a lefty. Andruw walked in both his plate appearances.

And Anfernny Reyes strikes out the side to nail down the win. That makes it eight of eleven outs secured via K on the young season for Anfernny.

Zona Crew putting on a very ACL sequence to take the lead top of seven. Angel Pereira single (wild pitch), Luiyin Alastre single & CF error (Angel scores), Alastre steals second (to third on throwing error), Filippo doubles (Alastre scores), throwing error by pitcher on pick off (Filippo scores). Now 5-3 Brewers.

Ismael goes 1-2-3 bottom of six closing the inning with a swinging strikeout. Pereira, Alastre, Bitonti due up top of seven.

Ismael puts up a zero bottom of five with a little help from an inning ending Edgardo Ordonez caught stealing,

Rivera retired the first two batters bottom of four (strikeout, fly out) then was relieved by Ismael Yanez who got the K for out number three.

Antony Gomez doubled and stole a bag to get to third with no outs. A pop out, strikeout and ground out later he was still standing there.

Rivera puts up a zero bottom of three striking out a pair after hitting the lead off batter.

Luiyin Alastre kicks things off with a triple and comes around to score on a Filippo Di Turi single to get the Brewers on the scoreboard, 3-1. Gery Holguin apparently enjoyed the sight of Alastre running 270 feet out of the box, because he just did the same to bring Filippo home, 3-2.

Rivera bounces back and has a much less eventful inning going strikeout, ground out, single, fly out bottom of two. Top of the order due up top of three for the Zona Crew.

Rivera finished out the first with a pop out, two RBI single and double play running the score to 3-0. Edgardo Ordonez opened the top of the second with a walk and moved to second on an Antony Gomez ground out, but then had to jog all the way back to the dugout from there to put on his chest protector and shin guards.

Tonight’s lineup for the AZ Brewers at AZ Cubs… Alastre 2B Bitonti 3B Di Turi SS Holguin 1B Ibarguen CF Ordonez C Gomez LF Walther DH Pereira RF Rivera P Crew got off to a good start with a Luiyin Alastre single and Eric Bitonti walk but things ended at second base. Bryan Rivera is on the mound & is off to a rough start at single, walk, double. Already 1-0 Cubs with runners on 2nd and 3rd no outs.

Nutting bought the team in 2007, since then the Pirates have gone 1,225-1,465, the 3rd worst record in MLB. Since 2007 the Brewers have gone 1,403-1,290, the 8th best record in MLB. Over the 17 years before Mark A bought the Brewers (1988-2004) they went 1,242-1,444, the 2nd worst record in MLB among non expansion teams. The main reason the Pirates have been irrelevant for 14 of the last 17 seasons is the same reason the Brewers were mostly irrelevant for two decades before Selig sold the team…the owner sucks.

About a quarter way into the season and I'd say most would agree that the bullpen has performed pretty admirably between the absence of Devin Williams and making up for a bevy of short starts from the rotation. Here are their rankings as a unit among all 30 MLB clubs... 158 IP (7th) | 98 K%+ (20th) | 97 BB%+ (6th) | 107 HR9+ (22nd) | 91 ERA- (11th) | 101 FIP- (18th) | +3.14 WPA (3rd) Despite not excelling at strikeouts or limiting home runs, the Brewers relief corps has come through nonetheless largely on account of limiting walks and inducing soft contact (20.2%, 2nd). There are currently five staples who have come in better than average by all of ERA-, FIP- and WPA... Bryan Hudson (22.1 IP) 20 ERA- | 61 FIP- | +1.34 WPA Hoby Milner (19.1 IP) 46 ERA- | 93 FIP- | +0.58 WPA Elvis Peguero (17 IP) 91 ERA- | 63 FIP- | +0.23 WPA Jared Koenig (15.1 IP) 72 ERA- | 87 FIP- | +0.40 WPA Trevor Megill (9.2 IP) 23 ERA- | 61 FIP- | +0.92 WPA After that, Payamps has struggled keeping runs off the board (130 ERA-), but his peripherals have been much better (93 FIP-) and he's still on the right side of the WPA scale at +0.18. Vieira hasn't been particularly good (120 ERA- | 155 FIP-), but he's still mostly done his job of eating low leverage innings with his 20.1 IP second on the team out of the pen and has barely cost the team anything from a WPA standpoint at -0.05. As far as future options go Uribe is a wild card in more ways than one, but his upside is a legit late inning arm as we've seen glimpses of. JB Bukauskas looked pretty nasty before he went down with injury and should hopefully be an option again at some point later on in the season. And then that Devin guy too. Also have two out-of-options possibilities down in Nashville that have been dominating International League hitters to start the season... Enoli Paredes (17.2 IP) 13.75 K9 | 3.06 BB9 | 0.00 HR9 1.02 ERA | 1.57 FIP Rob Zastryzny (15.1 IP) 13.50 K9 | 0.59 BB9 | 0.59 HR9 1.76 ERA | 1.65 FIP Among pitchers with at least 10 IP in the IL this season their 1.57 and 1.65 FIPs rank 2nd and 3rd, sandwiched between Cubs reliever Richard Lovelady (0.61) and some dude named Paul Skenes (1.67).

Just put in my ballot, and man, making the calls for the last few spots was TOUGH. If we went out to 25 my next five would have been Yujanyer Herrera, Daniel Corniel, Daniel Guilarte, Filippo Di Turi and Eric Bitonti.

Khrush Davis, Mister .247. During his four year run from 2015-18 his 160 HR were second in MLB behind only Nelson Cruz.

Whiting goes HBP, single, HBP to load the bases no outs bottom of nine then proceeds to strike out the next three batters. WOW. Carolina wins 6-5.

Whiting strands both runners going fly out, double steal, walk, pop out, fly out. 6-5 Mudcats heading to top nine.

Back to back three baggers from Kay-Lan Nicasia and Yhoswar Garcia have given Carolina an insurance run top of eight.

Mudcats two out rally top of six with a Kay-Lan Nicasia walk, wild pitch, Yhoswar Garcia single & stolen bag, and Miguel Briceno single running the score to 5-2 Carolina.