sveumrules

Tate Kuehner with five scoreless (1 H | 1 BB | 1 HBP | 2 K) on 56 pitches to start the day.

96th percentile BB rate versus 42nd percentile K rate seems pretty good to, wonder why that wasn’t circled?

Awesome read, though I believe the first two “2024” should be “2023” talking about last year’s draft? Catcher definitely looks like the biggest hole to me at the moment. Quero’s injury muddies things somewhat at the very top, after that I’m not a huge believer in either of Miller or Wood to ever be more than 3rd catcher types. Then after that somebody like Corobo would still be around five years away even on the off chance he lives up to some of the Quero comps that were tossed around when he signed. Ideally they can nab a college backstop with a nice collection of defensive tools at some point.

Somewhat arbitrary endpoints and all that, but in the first month or so back from injury (May 7th to June 5th) Wilken hit for a 93 wRC+ over 101 PAs. From June 6th onward he is at a 145 wRC+ clip over 130 PAs.

Always appreciate the additional context. Just glad it wasn’t a head or hand/wrist shot.

Connor Scott two RBI single gives the Shuckers a 5 to 4 lead. Still no outs top of nine.

Eric Brown Jr. single and Ernesto Martinez Jr. HBP have two on nobody out for Biloxi here top of nine. Looks like Casey Martin is on to run for Ernesto, hopefully nothing too serious. & an Adam Hall double makes it 3 to 4, runners on 2nd and 3rd still no outs with Connor Scott stepping to the plate.

Zona Crew drops a five spot top of one. Josh Adamczewski walk, Luiyin Alastre single, wild pitch, Eric Bitonti two RBI two bagger, Tyler Rodriguez single, double steal for run number three, Ramon Moreno RBI triple and a passed ball in a pear tree.

Josh Timmerman went three up three down three strikeouts bottom of seven for Carolina. Tyler Bryant now on bottom of eight trying to hold the 2 to 1 lead for the Mudcats.

I guess I'm not following the purpose of averaging results together, especially ones over such a disparate range of outcomes. Which players will Keston's performance be averaged with this year?

Did someone say “Chattahoochee”?

Yeah. 100 wRC+ is league average, but Hiura won’t provide any value as a 1B/DH only player unless he is up around a 110 or so at the minimum because the bar for offense is higher at those positions.

I wouldn't call a 94 wRC+ productive for a guy with no defensive value limited to 1B/DH. League average for 1B and DH last year was a 111 wRC+ and 106 wRC+, respectively. Six of the 34 guys on the list (about 18%) cleared that bar - Westburg, Kjerstad, Horwitz, Raley, Lowe and Rooker.

Lots of interesting placements on the BA list. Boeve at #4, Wichrowski at #5 vs Henderson at #19, Letson over Knoth, Adams over Wilken. Also some interesting positions listed with O'Rae at SS, Baez still SS listed first, Clarke with the slash catcher despite zero games behind the dish at AAA this year, Dunn 2B after playing almost exclusively 3B this year.

12 of 34 are at or above 94 wRC+, yes. But that's a long ways away from the 115-120 wRC+ in your original comment.

The two legit Orioles prospects (Westburg and Kjerstad) plus Rooker and Horwitz are the only players to clear a 115 wRC+ in MLB. That is 4 of 34 or about 12%. If you include Lowe (114 wRC+) and Raley (112 wRC+) that brings it up to about 18%, so not sure where you are pulling over a third from.

He's getting a chance, what these numbers say is that guys who have hit similarly to Keston at AAA over the last few years haven't fared so well when getting an MLB opportunity. Hopefully he'll be an exception like Rooker or Horwitz, but the odds are stacked against him.

Brewers seem to be a very process themed organization, which I'd guess is a big reason Winker (0.71 BB/K career) and McCutchen (0.63 BB/K career) got more opportunities than Keston (0.20 BB/K career) at the DH spot.

Major League wRC+ is yes, but minor league wRC+ is just league adjusted. International League OPS has ranged from .750 to .794 the last three years versus .804 to .822 for the PCL.

Darrien Miller? Has he leapfrogged Wes Clarke in the catcher rankings?

With Hiura back in MLB and taking over the Misc News thread, I thought now might be as good a time as any to see how Keston's success in AAA over the last few years might translate (or not) to the MLB level. Methodology is pretty straight forward. I took the 466 AAA batters with at least 500 PAs since 2021 on the FanGraphs leaderboard, sorted them by wRC+, and then clicked over to see what their MLB results were over the same 2021-24 time period. Turns out Keston is one of 34 hitters with at least a 130 wRC+ in AAA over that stretch... Jake Cave AAA (684 PAs) 149 wRC+ MLB (732 PAs) 66 wRC+ Brent Rooker AAA (632 PAs) 149 wRC+ MLB (1,092 PAs) 124 wRC+ Henry Ramos AAA (621 PAs) 147 wRC+ MLB (141 PAs) 70 wRC+ Matt Davidson AAA (738 PAs) 146 wRC+ MLB (37 PAs) 54 wRC+ Abraham Almonte AAA (602 PAs) 145 wRC+ MLB (228 PAs) 88 wRC+ Jonathan Aranda AAA (1,015 PAs) 144 wRC+ MLB (242 PAs) 87 wRC+ Josh Lowe AAA (876 PAs) 143 wRC+ MLB (845 PAs) 114 wRC+ Luke Raley AAA (586 PAs) 142 wRC+ MLB (795 PAs) 112 wRC+ Franchy Cordero AAA (821 PAs) 140 wRC+ MLB (482 PAs) 73 wRC+ Jonah Bride AAA (731 PAs) 139 wRC+ MLB (312 PAs) 58 wRC+ Spencer Horwitz AAA (945 PAs) 138 wRC+ MLB (142 PAs) 149 wRC+ Coby Mayo AAA (536 PAs) 138 wRC+ MLB (yet to debut) Elehuris Montero AAA (596 PAs) 136 wRC+ MLB (739 PAs) 67 wRC+ Vaughn Grissom AAA (504 PAs) 135 wRC+ MLB (323 PAs) 78 wRC+ Mark Vientos AAA (872 PAs) 134 wRC+ MLB (448 PAs) 102 wRC+ Jake McCarthy AAA (598 PAs) 134 wRC+ MLB (971 PAs) 103 wRC+ Aderlin Rodriguez AAA (682 PAs) 134 wRC+ MLB (never got called up) JJ Bleday AAA (500 PAs) 133 wRC+ MLB (906 PAs) 94 wRC+ Taylor Motter AAA (888 PAs) 133 wRC+ MLB (117 PAs) 28 wRC+ Keston Hiura AAA (915 PAs) 133 wRC+ MLB (475 PAs) 89 wRC+ Zach Reks AAA (519 PAs) 133 wRC+ MLB (44 PAs) 19 wRC+ Cooper Hummel AAA (1,187 PAs) 132 wRC+ MLB (235 PAs) 53 wRC+ Ben Gamel AAA (562 PAs) 132 wRC+ MLB (846 PAs) 96 wRC+ Ivan Herrera AAA (667 PAs) 131 wRC+ MLB (258 PAs) 101 wRC+ Nick Gonzales AAA (580 PAs) 131 wRC+ MLB (335 PAs) 87 wRC+ Michael Stefanic AAA (1,373 PAs) 131 wRC+ MLB (175 PAs) 74 wRC+ Heston Kjerstad AAA (595 PAs) 131 wRC+ MLB (84 PAs) 140 wRC+ Joshua Palacios AAA (578 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (370 PAs) 78 wRC+ Justyn-Henry Malloy AAA (839 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (89 PAs) 91 wRC+ Miguel Vargas AAA (996 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (407 PAs) 89 wRC+ Yonathan Perlaza AAA (543 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (currently in KBO) Eddy Alvarez AAA (882 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (142 PAs) 45 wRC+ Miguel Andujar AAA (844 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (552 PAs) 89 wRC+ Jordan Westburg AAA (714 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (573 PAs) 120 wRC+ So of the 34 I am counting three legit Orioles prospects, five around average-ish bats (Herrera, Gamel, Bleday, McCarthy, Vientos), two above average bats (Lowe, Raley), one good bat (Rooker) and one star level bat (Horwitz). That leaves 22 of the 34 very best AAA hitters over the last four years who haven't been able to clear even a lowly 94 wRC+ when called up to MLB.

I think the Brewers will add an infielder to upgrade the Monasterio spot too. Somebody like Paul DeJong or Amed Rosario comes to mind.

Among 114 pitchers with at least 250 IP since 2022, Skubal comes in 2nd with a 63 FIP-. The only guy better than him is an injured Spencer Strider (60 FIP-) with a big gap down to Kevin Gausman in 3rd with a 70 FIP-. You can’t trade for players of that calibre by clearing 40 man space, think the Corbin Burnes package then double it and you might pique the Tigers interest.

I just don’t see the Tigers dealing Skubal. They’ve been trying to convince their fans they are serious about returning to relevance since hiring Hinch in 2021, then signing Baez/Rodriguez for $200M+ in 2022. Trade Tarik now and that’s admitting the last four years were a failure and you don’t see things getting better for at least two more, probably longer.

Hiura posted an 82 wRC+ over 199 PAs with Toledo - that is pretty terrible.