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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Hey, did you hear? The Brewers have used 16 starting pitchers already this year. Here is the Team Record by starting pitcher through the first 101 games... THE MAINSTAYS (32-19) Freddy Peralta (13-7) Colin Rea (12-5) Tobias Myers (7-7) [Even with Peralta not being nearly ace-y enough, they've pulled through just fine in his starts. Team loves to play for Rea apparently, went 14-8 in his starts last year. Tobias has been a stabilizing force, and got the best run support of the three, but only a 7-7 record because that's how baseball be sometimes.] UNBEATABLE BOB (5-0) Robert Gasser (5-0) [Remember those five glorious Bob Gas starts?] THESE GUYS SUCK (6-2) DL Hall (3-1) Dallas Keuchel (3-1) [The power of run support and bullpen.] THE OPENERS (5-3) Jarred Koenig (3-2) Rob Zastryzny (1-1) Hoby Milner (1-0) [Strategy has worked more often than not with the three losses coming by a combined four runs.] THE BACK ENDERS (8-13) Bryse Wilson (4-5) Joe Ross (3-6) Aaron Civale (1-2) [Ate some innings, but can't win em all.] THE SPOT STARTERS (2-6) Carlos Rodriguez (0-3) Aaron Ashby (0-2) Wade Miley (1-1) Jakob Junis (1-0) [Various combinations of called up, sent down and/or injured slash recovering from injury.] All told the first four groupings have started 72 games with the Brewers going 48-24 (.667 W%) in those games, while the last two groupings have started 29 games with the Brewers going 10-19 (.345 W%) in those games.
  2. sveumrules
    @Seth Stohs I went through the last voting thread and it looks like nobody voted for Melvin Hernandez, Patricio Aquino, Eric Prado, Freddy Zamora, Jesus Rivero or Enniel Cortez so probably safe to remove them from the list for housekeeping.
  3. sveumrules
    @Seth Stohs gonna need to add Luis Peña, Jesus Made, and Jose Anderson for sure. Not sure if they’ll get any votes with the depth of the system but Juan Ortuno and Josh Adamczewski have put up some impressive complex numbers too. Also feel like KC Hunt’s season to this point warrants inclusion in the pool for consideration. Believe both Oliver Dunn and Tobias Myers have graduated so can remove them from the options. There’s probably another ten names that could be removed from the list, not sure if you have to go in and do that manually or if there’s a mechanism in place that takes them out automatically if they don’t receive any votes. Thanks for putting this all together.
  4. sveumrules
    Interesting, I thought maybe someone bumped the thread because he’s hit 413/526/630 (204 wRC+) with 10 BB | 8 K over 57 PAs since July 2nd.
  5. sveumrules
    Zona Crew rally back winning 5 to 4 with a bases loaded three RBI triple from Johan Barrios providing the winning margin.
  6. sveumrules
    19yo RHP Bryan Rivera dealing for the Zona Crew tonight with five scoreless frames of 1 H | 3 BB | 5 K work.
  7. sveumrules
    Luke Adams with another single and two walks tonight. Due up fifth top of nine, hopefully he gets another PA as the TRats try to rally back from the 3 to 2 deficit.
  8. sveumrules
    Corey Ray got $4.8M to sign as the #5 overall pick in 2016 EBJ got $2.05M to sign as the #27 overall pick in 2022. They were both 1st round picks, sure, but there’s a big difference between $4.8M at #5 eight years ago and $2.05M at #27 two years ago. Also might be a little early to write off EBJ with him posting a 120 wRC+ over his last 130 PA as he gets farther away from the injury that knocked him out earlier this year. Black has posted a 15.4 BB% | 18.0 K% and 86 SB / 23 CS in his minor league career. Hiura has posted an 8.9 BB% | 24.3 K% and 26 SB / 21 CS in his minor league career. Neither can field, true, but Tyler has a massive edge in plate approach and base running over Keston.
  9. sveumrules
    127 MLB pitchers threw at least 100 IP in 2023. Miller came in at... 124.1 IP (96th) | 79 FIP- (13th) | 83 WHIP+ (13th) | 71 HR9+ (14th) | 90 AVG+ (20th) | 73 BB%+ (25th) | 110 GB%+ (27th) | 88 ERA- (47th) | 2.8 fWAR (34th) | 2.7 rWAR (50th) That's a little better than a #4,
  10. sveumrules
    DSL Dos fared a little better with a 6 to 3 win over the Calcetines Rojos in seven innings. Jorge Quintana (2 for 4), Jonathan Rangel (1 for 4, double, stolen base), Frederi Montero (1 for 3, double, walk, stolen base), and Luis Corobo (2 for 3, walk, stolen base, caught stealing) had the big days at the dish while 17yo RHP Lonell Down picked up the win throwing the last three frames with 1 ER | 2 H | 1 BB | 1 HBP | 3 K.
  11. sveumrules
    Looks like Jesus Made still managed a single, two walks and two stolen bags (and an error) in the losing effort. Carlos Carra (3.1 IP | 1 H | 3 BB | 1 HBP | 3 K) and Ayendy Bravo (4.0 IP | 2 H | 0 BB | 3 K) each registered multi inning scoreless appearances.
  12. sveumrules
    Hey now, he's hitting 400/476/727 in the Atlantic League. Who knew the fountain of youth was in Long Island?!?!?
  13. sveumrules
    Using the somewhat arbitrary start point of June 2nd (aka when Chourio got hot) the best lineup the Brewers could run out probably looks something like this... CF Perkins (99 PA) 99 wRC+ LF Chourio (137 PA) 137 wRC+ DH Yelich (173 PA) 143 wRC+ SS Adames (179 PA) 111 wRC+ 1B Bauers (70 PA) 123 wRC+ Ca Haase (22 PA) 265 wRC+ RF Mitchell (44 PA) 122 wRC+ 3B Ortiz (111 PA) 89 wRC+ 2B Turang (182 PA) 77 wRC+ BENCH Frelick (137 PA) 96 wRC+ Contreras (170 PA) 76 wRC+ Hoskins (143 PA) 75 wRC+ Monasterio (57 PA) 70 wRC+
  14. sveumrules
    Just thought I'd put together a quick reference list with some of the rumoured to be available starting pitchers... Tarik Skubal (123 IP) 58 ERA- | 61 FIP- 133 K+ | 55 BB+ | 64 HR+ Garrett Crochet (107 IP) 74 ERA- | 54 FIP- 156 K+ | 65 BB+ | 73 HR+ Jack Flaherty (100 IP) 78 ERA- | 77 FIP- 144 K+ | 52 BB+ | 117 HR+ Erick Fedde (117 IP) 73 ERA- | 86 FIP- 96 K+ | 80 BB+ | 87 HR+ [These are the likely the only guys worth starting in a playoff game. Would imagine Skubal and Crochet are out of our price range so one of Flaherty or Fedde is probably the best we can hope for.] Nathan Eovaldi (99 IP) 82 ERA- | 92 FIP- 105 K+ | 79 BB+ | 103 HR+ Andrew Heaney (100 IP) 87 ERA- | 94 FIP- 104 K+ | 82 BB+ | 110 HR+ [Not sure if the Rangers will sell or not, but either of these two would give the rotation a boost.] Chris Bassitt (114 IP) 94 ERA- | 92 FIP- 95 K+ | 112 BB+ | 69 HR+ Yusei Kikuchi (111 IP) 114 ERA- | 86 FIP- 117 K+ | 72 BB+ | 113 HR+ Tyler Anderson (123 IP) 71 ERA- | 106 FIP- 78 K+ | 115 BB+ | 89 HR+ Cal Quantrill (108 IP) 88 ERA- | 109 FIP- 82 K+ | 109 BB+ | 107 HR+ [Getting somebody from this tier would be more of an inning eater move than a move the needle move, though worth noting that Kikuchi has an even shinier 81 xFIP- indicating he's likely had some bad HR luck. Conversely Bassitt has a more pedestrian 103 xFIP- so he could be bound for an elevated HR rate down the stretch if things even out.]
  15. sveumrules
    I don't see the White Sox having much interest in Frelick as a headliner since he is already coming up on one year of service time under his belt and is more of a high floor/low ceiling kind of player. I'd guess the Brewers would need to offer two of Misio/Quero/Pratt to get the White Sox seriously listening on Robert.
  16. sveumrules
    26yo Bryse Wilson (one million dollars) 4.07 ERA / 5.06 FIP / 4.65 xFIP 35yo James Paxton (nine million dollars) 4.43 ERA / 4.97 FIP / 5.30 xFIP
  17. sveumrules
    Yeah, I think Black plus somebody in that 10-15 range is the likely ask for Fedde. It would hurt for sure, but if the Brewers view Black as being limited to 1B/DH that puts a lot more pressure on his bat to carry the profile. White Sox would also be better positioned to try him out at 3B/2B/OF. Would prefer something like a Boeve/Lara co-headliner, but that offer probably gets beaten pretty easily with how much competition there will be for SP at the deadline.
  18. sveumrules
    Pretty good breakdown at FanGraphs from when he originally signed with the White Sox after winning MVP and Cy Young in Korea last year. Long story short, "Fedde went to Push Athletic in Scottsdale and remade his body, mechanics, and the shape of his three most-used pitches." and "Perhaps the biggest leap in Fedde’s skill set is evident in his command. His 2023 walk rate with the Dinos (4.9%) was roughly half his MLB career walk rate with Washington."
  19. sveumrules
    DSL Dos is currently leading 5 to 2 over Cleveland Mendoza in a game that appears to be suspended bottom of four. Luis Corobo has doubled while Frandy LaFond has doubled and walked in the early going.
  20. sveumrules
    Looks like DSL Uno was called after five innings with a 4 to 1 victory over the Rojos. Luis Pena (2 for 3, two stolen bases), Engel Paulino (2 for 2, double) and Kevin Garcia (1 for 2, triple) had the big days at the plate. Gabriel Colmenarez limited the Rojos to one unearned runs over four frames (3 H | 2 BB | 1 HBP | 3 K) while Saul Sanchez worked a one two three fifth inning (1 K).
  21. sveumrules
    Luke Adams with a productive oh for oh game today - two walks, two HBP, one stolen bag, two runs scored.
  22. sveumrules
    Obviously lotsa good stuff amidst the carnage of the Biloxi box but extra nice to see Eric Brown Jr. (double, home run) and Dylan O’Rae (single, double, walk, stolen bag) contributing big.
  23. sveumrules
    Tyler Rodriguez was hit by pitch three times for the Zona Crew (came around to score the first times and stole two bags) before being lifted for a pinch runner after his third drilling.
  24. sveumrules
    Freddy was at a 107 ERA- | 104 FIP- at the break last year, a notch worse than his current 100 ERA- | 91 FIP-. He followed that up with a monster 64 ERA- | 66 FIP- in the second half last year, so I’ll hope he has something like that in him again this year.
  25. sveumrules
    Thanks for posting, really interesting stuff. The spread on team DRS went from +85 to -79 last year versus only +44 to -47 for StatCast’s FRV. Seems to me like the larger range of DRS outcomes is a better representation of the potential runs to be saved (or lost) than the narrower StatCast spread. Based on how much the Brewers FO has emphasized defense (& to great effect), I’d imagine their own internal metrics or models align more closely with DRS on the whole as well.
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