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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    How is it cherry picking to point out that he got better results in his last two starts, all while noting the tininess of the sample and throwing a bunch of soft qualifiers in there like "maybe" or "some modicum"?
  2. sveumrules
    Ashby (first 7 AAA starts) 31.1 IP | 41 H | 31 ER | 32 BB | 3 HBP | 7 WP | 35 K Ashby (last 2 AAA starts) 12.1 IP | 7 H | 2 ER | 6 BB | 0 HBP | 0 WP | 8 K Obviously a tiny sample, but looks like Ashby maybe found some modicum of control over his last two starts.
  3. sveumrules
    Good call, just glanced at the top of the rookie leaderboards and he isn't quite up there yet with the lower IP. Looks like the local sports book has it +100 Imanaga | +200 Skenes | +650 Yamamoto | +1000 Ortiz at the moment. (Odds provided for entertainment purposes only. Don't Gamble.)
  4. sveumrules
    Ortiz is currently at 155 wRC+ | 2.0 WAR. Next best position player is Michael Busch at 124 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR. Imanaga (2.4 rWAR), Gavin Stone (1.9 rWAR) and Yamamoto (1.5 rWAR) are probably Joey’s closest competition at this point. Then there’s that Bryan Hudson dude (+1.77 WPA) kind of flying under the radar too.
  5. sveumrules
    Awesome to see the coaching and development staff getting good results out of so many less heralded guys. Obviously this kind of performance is expected out of Misio and C-Rod as higher picks that have already climbed to the upper levels, but seeing guys like Patrick (marginal trade), Smith (undrafted), Kuehner (7th round senior sign), Robinson (14th round high schooler), and Cornielle/Hernandez (low bonus international signings) thriving is always a little extra enjoyable.
  6. sveumrules
    How “bad” the Yelich extension has been is often quite overstated to begin with. His worst year (2021) was the last year of the original Marlins extension, so he only got $14M for that 1.4 WAR. The big money ($26M) kicked in for 2022 when he put up 2.1 WAR. Last year that $26M bought 3.8 WAR, this year Yelich is on pace for something like 6-7 WAR. Since the second extension kicked in Yelich has notched 7.6 WAR for about $61.5M, or $8.1M per win. If he stays healthy and keeps pace it will be closer to $7.5M per win by the end of the season for the first three years of the extension. Average returns for players at the top of the pay scale is closer to $10M per win, so Yelich is on the right side of the ledger. All the fears about his albatross contract holding back the Brewers from being competitive have yet to come to fruition.
  7. sveumrules
    Luzardo has been a Marlin since 2021 though… Home (230 IP) 3.76 ERA | 3.53 FIP Road (158 IP) 4.39 ERA | 3.90 FIP Kind of interesting that they have seemingly tilted his starts towards being at home compared to their other regular SPs over that stretch with their home | road IP splits… Alcantara 309 | 310 Lopez 152 | 130 Garrett 150 | 155 Rogers 149 | 160 Cabrera 111 | 108
  8. sveumrules
    The Phillies have one of the deepest lineups in baseball (plus Castellanos). I’m fine with the “starters” going twice through the order then handing it over to the bullpen with the 2nd highest WPA in MLB this year. That is the formula. Trying to get 6-7 IP out of Rea/Wilson versus the Phils is just asking to get bombed.
  9. sveumrules
    Yeah, Reese Olson and David Fry would look great on this team right now. Might have a ten game division lead already. Good thing the guy that traded them away works in New York now.
  10. sveumrules
    Funny, was just looking at this same thing. Think the Rangers fit the bill too, 29-27 minus their three game sweep by Philly.
  11. sveumrules
    Just to weigh in on the Freddy debate from earlier in the thread, I’ve always thought the best “quick and dirty” classification system for starting pitchers was… 5.0+ WAR = ACE 4 to 5 WAR = #1 3 to 4 WAR = #2 2 to 3 WAR = #3 1 to 2 WAR = #4 Using that breakdown and sorting by rWAR, among 117 SP with at least 100 IP in 2023 there were six ACE, fifteen #1, twenty one #2, twenty seven #3, twenty five #4, and then everybody else is essentially in the fungible fifth (or sixth) spot. For more of a rate stat breakdown I’d go something like… 69 ERA- or lower = ACE 70 to 80 ERA- = #1 80 to 90 ERA- = #2 90 to 100 ERA- = #3 100 to 110 ERA- = #4 Applying that criteria to the same 117 SP with at least 100 IP in 2023 comes out to five ACE, fourteen #1, twenty seven #2, twenty three #3, and thirty #4.
  12. sveumrules
    Entering today the Brewers 293 PAs with two outs and RISP were most in MLB. Their .818 OPS ranks 4th (league average is .704) and only the Phillies have more than their 99 RBIs.
  13. sveumrules
    With today’s results the Cubs are three times closer to the Reds in last place (2.5 games) than they are to the Brewers in first place (7.5 games).
  14. sveumrules
    Williams has zero innings. Payamps, our second best reliever last year, has 21.0 IP which ties him with Craig Kimbrel for 141st in MLB. Megill, our de facto closer this year, has 15.0 IP which ranks 213th in MLB. Enoli Paredes, who has been electric in Nashville and since his call up, has 5 IP (plus 20.2 in AAA). Milner has 29 IP, but he’s thrown a ton of games (168, 3rd) and innings (158, 10th) going back to 2022 so he might just have a rubber arm like many submariners. Koenig and Hudson are converted starters that have each topped 100 IP twice in their careers who have been carefully managed and well rested after multi inning appearances this season.
  15. sveumrules
    Yelich and Chourio aren’t going anywhere. Mitchell doesn’t really have any value until he proves can stay healthy and productive for more than a month or two at MLB. That leaves Perkins or Frelick as the only two real trade candidates. Problem with dealing one of them is if Mitchell or Yelich get hurt again you’re back into the territory of having guys like Bauer, Wiemer or Roller as the 4th OF. I like the Brewers depth in the OF, but with Chourio learning on the job and Yelich/Mitchell being varying degrees of health risks, I think it’s still tenuous enough that they won’t look to maybe move anyone until the offseason.
  16. sveumrules
    Pretty great encapsulation of the depth in the system currently and also a testament to the Brewers scouting and development staff to nab him as a 10K eighth rounder which freed up cash for some of the over slot guys to boot. He’s not in the MLB Top 30, He wasn’t on the FanGraphs Top 42 (or one of the 19 “other prospects of note”). I don’t subscribe to BPro or BA, but I’m guessing he isn’t on either of their lists either. I put him #20 on my ballot because the results and grainy internet footage of his stuff are too much to deny, even if he was a 24 year old reliever in A+ ball at the time of voting. Looking back on the voting thread it looks like he turned up on five ballots with a high rank of #14. If he keeps it up at AA twixt now and the next iteration I could see more voters jumping aboard.
  17. sveumrules
    7-3 last ten for Brewers versus 2-8 for Cubs. Obviously still early and anything can happen, but that recent stretch has the Cubs closer to last place in the division (3.5 games up on the Reds) than first.
  18. sveumrules
    Wisco up 3-0 heading to bottom of four. Dylan O’Rae (single, walk), Jadher Areinamo (two singles) and Luke Adams (single, double) have each reached twice already while Tayden Hall has a RBI sac fly. Yujanyer Herrera has three walks and three strikeouts through four IP.
  19. sveumrules
    I definitely thought Murphy should have been playing Ortiz with more regularity earlier than he did, but even then the Brewers have gone 12-5 in the 17 games Dunn has started at 3B. Maybe one or two more wins, sure, but several would be hard to pull off from a starting point of 12-5.
  20. sveumrules
    After last night’s outburst, the Brewers are up to a 117 wRC+, which at the moment ties them with the 1978 squad for 2nd in franchise history behind only 1982 who came in at 120 wRC+. The best hitting Melvin teams came in between 107 to 109 wRC+. In addition to the hot hitting, Brewers are leading MLB in base running (+9.2 BsR), and their +12 OAA is third. Add it all up and their 13.4 WAR is just fractions behind LAD (13.7) and NYY (13.9) atop the MLB leaderboard. Pretty fun stuff.
  21. sveumrules
    Yup. In Year of the Pitcher 1968 league average for position players was 245/309/354 This year it’s at 240/310/387 so pretty much dead on to 1968 but with a few more extra base hits.
  22. sveumrules
    Anybody foresee “Entering June With A Six Game Division Lead And A Top Three Offense In Baseball” looking into their crystal ball two months ago?
  23. sveumrules
    Arizona Crew wins 8-4 to pull within one game of .500 on the year. Enniel Cortez (4 IP | 2 ER | 4 H | 1 BB | 7 K) and Anfernny Reyes (3 IP | 2 UER | 2 H | 1 BB | 3 K) handled the pitching part. Fillio Di Turi was 1-4 with a two RBI double, Gery Holguin hit a pair of bombs and Ramon Moreno went 2-2 with a sac fly and stolen bag to account for most of the scoring.
  24. sveumrules
    Sounds win 7-2 with Ashby going SEVEN SCORELESS with 2 H | 3 BB | 5 K. Tyler Black (2-5), Joey Wiemer (2-4, BB), Chris Roller (1-4, HR) and Francisco Mejia (2-4, HRx2) did the heavy lifting on offense.
  25. sveumrules
    Shuckers hang on for an 8-5 win. Darrien Miller (1-4, 2B, BB), Mike Boeve (2-3, SF), Carlos Rodriguez (3-4, 2B), and Noah Campbell (2-4, 2Bx2) had the big nights in the box.
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