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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Crochet definitely has the kind of stuff to start a playoff game. I’d guess the Sox will be asking for something like a Cease package with Garrett having more team control left, but less of a track record. And track record is the main issue, his IP totals going back to college are… 2018 (63.2 IP) 2019 (65.0 IP) 2020 (9.1 IP) 2021 (54.1 IP) 2022 (0.0 IP) 2023 (25.0 IP) 2024 (57.2 IP already) It’d probably be irresponsible to throw him much more than 100 IP this year given his past workloads, and you’d likely still need to limit him to around 140-150 IP next year to build him up gradually towards hopefully handling a full 30 GS/180 IP for his final two seasons before FA.
  2. sveumrules
    Cots has Berrios down at 4/84 remaining after this year - $18M each in 25/26 then $24M each in 27/28. There’s no way I’d want to tie up that much payroll space (and give up a big prospect outlay) for a guy who is sporting a 4.87 xERA and 4.63 FIP under the hood of his 2.98 ERA to start the season and as recently as 2022 looked completely cooked at 5.23 ERA / 5.11 xERA / 4.55 FIP,
  3. sveumrules
    Nashville scored one bottom first via Tyler Black HBP/steal and Isaac Collins single, then scored another bottom two on a Brewer Hicklen bomb. Oliver Dunn has started bottom three with a single trying to break the 2-2 tie.
  4. sveumrules
    Manuel Rodriguez with a decent start at 5 IP | 2 ER | 5 H | 0 BB | 3 K. See if he comes out for the 6th with a pretty efficient 66 pitches. And a Daniel Guilarte single/steal followed by a Yophery Rodriguez bomb has just evened the score at two apiece bottom of five.
  5. sveumrules
    Eduarqui Fernandez double, Dylan O’Rae single and Jadher Areinamo sac fly finally got the TRats on the board top of six. Unfortunately Manfredi ran into some tough luck bottom of four when he compounded Tayden Hall and Luke Adams errors with a three run bomb. Patricio Aquino has followed up by working around a pair of hits and a walk to post two scoreless so far.
  6. sveumrules
    Jacob Misiorowski Highest upside in the system.Robert Gasser Helping the MLB rotation now.Tyler Black Good 1B/DH insurance policy.Jeferson Quero Contender for #1 if not for injury.Brock Wilken Love how much power he generates from such a simple set up.Mike Boeve Can't imagine too many guys have two different minor league stops with .500 batting averages.Yophery Rodriguez Highest upside of the hitters yet to reach AA.Luis Lara Holding his own as one of only three teenage hitters in the Midwest League.Cooper Pratt Solid start to full season ball.Josh Knoth Stuff has lived up to the billing.Eric Brown Jr I still believe.Carlos F Rodriguez Put together his two best starts of the year (11 IP | 2 ER | 15 K | 2 BB) leading up to voting, hopefully a sign he is starting to figure things out at the AAA level.Bradley Blalock Getting good results in his first exposure to AA.Tyler Woessner Dominated AA, but got bombed in his first two AAA starts.Logan Henderson Just needs to stay healthy and stack innings the rest of the summer.Gregory Barrios Hot start at A+ has pushed him to the top of the second tier of hitters yet to reach AA for me.Luke Adams Intriguing mix of OBP, power and speed (low batting average notwithstanding)Dylan O'Rae Just keeps on getting on base and stealing bags.Juan Baez Just keeps on hitting (and getting caught stealing bags)Craig Yoho YO-HO!! YO-HO!! YO-HO!!
  7. sveumrules
    Drew Smyly with three perfect rehab innings against the TRats. Mark Manredi was cruising through two before running into trouble and surrendering three runs in the third. With Smyly lifted Jadher Areinamo and Gregory Barrios have notched back to back one out singles here top of four, but a Luke Adams 6-4-3 ends things just like that.
  8. sveumrules
    What are you trying to make those numbers do?
  9. sveumrules
    93 and 118 career PAs are already tiny samples. If you want to get minuscule and look at 2024 only it’s… Turang (20 PA) 235/350/294 (94 wRC+) Monasterio (13 PA) 182/308/455 (118 wRC+)
  10. sveumrules
    Turang career vs LHP (93 PA) 198/293/210 (48 wRC+) Monasterio career vs LHP (106 PA) 278/377/400 (118 wRC+) Brice isn't going to play every inning of every game, so best to give him an occasional rest when there is a lefty on the mound.
  11. sveumrules
    Weird series of moves. Would rather see Wiemer play everyday in AAA and give whatever sporadic 5th OF ABs happen to come up to Roller. No issue with the Vieira DFA, but kinda surprised at Blalock getting the aggressive promotion. Will be interesting to see how his usage shakes out. Last pitched 05/15 in Biloxi so should be ready to go for multi inning bullpen stints or maybe they'll start him on Wednesday to push Freddy back to the Red Sox series and get a couple extra days rest.
  12. sveumrules
    Pretty rare for deals of any consequence to go down in May, June or July until the last week or so before the deadline. The Adames trade was May 21st back in 2021 but there were kind of extenuating circumstances there with Wander Franco waiting in the wings to take over SS. I'd love it if Arnold could pull an out of the blue early blockbuster for a SP, but I'm definitely not counting on it. As it stands, I think Bob Gas (11 IP | 1 ER so far) is going to be the big addition to the rotation for May and beyond.
  13. sveumrules
    By dealing prospects at the deadline?
  14. sveumrules
    First 12 Games with Yelich 135 wRC+ | 6.33 R/G Next 23 Games w/o Yelich 102 wRC+ | 4.22 R/G Last 11 Games with Yelich 132 wRC+ | 5.64 R/G Last year's Braves came in at 125 wRC+ and 5.85 R/G, so I would still expect some regression from the numbers the Brewers have posted over the 23 games with Yelich active, but even during the 23 games he was out of the lineup they still performed at essentially a league average level so I would estimate the floor for this team as being considerably higher than the 92 wRC+ they posted last year. Even if they hit to a 100 wRC+ the rest of the way out from here, the +37.0 batting runs they have already banked this season entering today would represent about a ten win improvement over the -61.2 batting runs they posted last year.
  15. sveumrules
    On the one hand - Yeli has missed half the season so far, Mitchell has missed the whole season, Chourio/Sal/Perkins have struggled with the bats, Wiemer regressed and got hurt, Jake Bauers has played nine games in the OF - sounds pretty dire on the surface. On the other hand - their 105 wRC+ as a group is 9th in MLB among OF, their +2.9 BsR is 3rd and their +2 OAA is tied for 8th - add it all up and the Brewers 2.2 OF WAR comes in 9th despite issues with health and/or productivity at the plate pretty much across the board. My guess right now would be that Perkins gets optioned when Mitchell is ready to come back so the Brewers can maintain their depth as odds are Blake will be needed subsequently for some reason or another. If Garrett stays healthy through the end of the season and/or Sal & Jackson show progress at the plate I could see an OF (likely Perkins) moved in the offseason, but things are probably still too tenuous currently to make a deal in season.
  16. sveumrules
    Ortiz 2024: 1.4 WAR Burnes 2024: 1.6 rWAR
  17. sveumrules
    Small sample of only 20 PA, but in the six games since Jackson’s reset he has hit 278/350/444 (129 wRC+) with a 10.0 BB% and 20.0 K%.
  18. sveumrules
    We should note that the relief corps has done a solid job this season (an ERA of 3.77), which is 13th in the majors. But that’s not exactly lights out like in 2023, While the raw ERA isn’t overly impressive, Brewers relievers are currently 3rd in MLB at +3.73 WPA and second in MLB with 2.5 rWAR. Their 49 “shutdown” appearances are tied for 6th most while their 18 “meltdown” appearances are 3rd fewest. Or for more of an old school flair, their 17 Wins are most in MLB while their 5 Losses are tied for 2nd fewest. All five of Hudson (17 ERA- | 59 FIP- | +1.56 WPA), Megill (38 ERA- | 71 FIP- | +1.09 WPA), Milner (41 ERA- | 88 FIP- | +0.71 WPA), Koenig (77 ERA- | 106 FIP- | 0.44 WPA) and Peguero (77 ERA- | 56 FIP- | +0.43 WPA) have been effective in terms of run prevention, peripherals and leverage. Payamps has been unscored on in 13 of his 16 appearances. The three clunkers tanked his rate stats (126 ERA- | 106 FIP-), but he’s still been a slight positive contextually at +0.12 WPA. White and Vieira are nothing special but both are fine to mop up low leverage innings as needed. I’d leave Misio in the Biloxi rotation for now to stack innings and hope he makes some gains with his command before a possible August or September call up.
  19. sveumrules
    People keep saying this, but it hasn’t happened yet. I think a more likely scenario is that Bauer does not pitch in MLB this year (or maybe ever again) because he is blacklisted and none of the 30 teams will want to be the one to break ranks.
  20. sveumrules
    No doubt Chourio and Gasser (& Ortiz) graduating will be a hit in the rankings, but I think Misio, Quero, Black, Wilken is still a pretty strong top 4. Boeve (198 wRC+) is probably the closest thing to a breakout hitter but it feels like all of Di Turi (182 wRC+), Adams (142 wRC+), Bitonti (132 wRC+), Barrios (128 wRC+), Guilarte (120 wRC+), Yophery (119 wRC+), Pratt (118 wRC+), O’Rae (117 wRC+), Baez (110 wRC+) and Lara (96 wRC+) have at least held their own to varying degrees among guys that have gotten some recent attention. Then there’s Clarke (159 wRC+), Carlos Rodriguez OF (148 wRC+), EMJ (145 wRC+), Hicklen (139 wRC+), Yhoswar (127 wRC+), Collins (122 wRC+), Eduarqui (122 wRC+) and Kay-Lan (121 wRC+) who have their various warts but have at least come out of the gates performing strong. I’d say the only real “dud” so far this year is EBJ, but injuries have definitely been a factor there.
  21. sveumrules
    Yo soy Osbriel Mogollon
  22. sveumrules
    Jadher Areinamo’s pre-swing histrionics make Joey Wiemer look like Paul Molitor.
  23. sveumrules
    This might not be a popular comp, but my immediate first impression upon watching Yujanyer Herrera (as a Venezuelan thicc-boi wearing #38) is something akin to Carlos Zambrano.
  24. sveumrules
    Red Sox are currently sitting at .500, 4th in the ALE, with eleven teams ahead of them by FanGraphs playoff odds. Not really well positioned to be aggressive buyers.
  25. sveumrules
    Looking at the schedule the only real advantageous opportunities to "call him up" and serve his suspension before September would maybe be around the All Star Game (three days shorthanded on either side with a big rest in between) or there is a quick stretch with two off days on August 1st and 5th so you could call him up and only be shorthanded for four games in six days.
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