sveumrules

From 2017-22 it pretty much was, they had a 104 ERA- (23rd), 11.0 rWAR (22nd) and +7.42 WPA (18th) over that stretch. Last year the Reds young bats got most of the credit, but their bullpen was pretty clutch at 89 ERA- (11th), 7.9 rWAR (3rd) and +8.94 WPA (2nd). The two big guns were Alexis Diaz (67 ERA- | 1.5 rWAR | +4.37 WPA) and Lucas Sims (67 ERA- | 1.8 rWAR | +3.20 WPA) but they’ve both struggled this year with Diaz at a 136 ERA- | -0.33 WPA and Sims at a 104 ERA- | +0.04 WPA so far.

Osbriel works around a pair of walks to put up a zero in the sixth with another K.

ACL Crew picked up a pair of runs in the first via Antony Gomez double, Eric Bitonti walk, Gery Holguin walk, Luiyin Alastre RBI fielder’s choice, and a Johan Barrios bases loaded walk. Eric Prado allowed a pair of runs over four frames with 3 H | 2 BB | 2 K before Osbriel Mogollon put up a scoreless fifth (1 K) working around 2 H and 1 BB. Crew is rallying top of six with Johan Barrios ROE, Luis Lameda single, Ramon Moreno walk, Antony Gomez walk and Eric Bitonti walk netting them another pair of runs. Fillipo Di Turi offered a brief respite with a rare strikeout before a Gery Holguin fielder’s choice netted one more run. Now 5-2 heading to bottom of six with Mogollon still on the mound.

Fun to think about. Guess it all depends around where one wants to draw that arbitrary line. Sorting by ISO+ (isolated slugging adjusted for ballpark/league run environment) on the all time Brewers right handed hitter leaderboard (min. 500 PA) it looks like the homegrown guys at least 20% above average are… Gorman Thomas (180 ISO+), Khris Davis (170 ISO+), Ryan Braun (150 ISO+), Greg Vaughn (149 ISO+), Corey Hart (138 ISO+), Sixto Lezcano (138 ISO+), Tyrone Taylor (130 ISO+), Bill Schroeder (130 ISO+), Joey Meyer (128 ISO+), John Jaha (125 ISO+) and Keston Hiura (124 ISO+). Guys like Bill Hall (118 ISO+) and Rickie Weeks (115 ISO+) come in just below that threshold and were definitely power hitters for their positions, though maybe a little more borderline in an absolute sense.

An intriguing long term play for sure, but just too many guys healthy and performing for him to warrant Top 20 consideration for me right now. Houser (-1.1 rWAR) has been brutal to start the year and Taylor (81 wRC+, -0.1 WAR) has been replacement level, so Coleman won't have a very high bar to clear for the Brewers to win the trade as it stands currently.

With a big four gamer against the Cubs incoming and the season about a third of the way played, now seems like as good a time as any to take stock of the division... MIL: 30-22 | WinDiv: 49.7% (FG) | 36.6% (BPro) Started (9-3) 135 wRC+ (2nd) | SP: 1.4 rWAR (6th) | RP: +0.39 WPA (9th) Since (21-19) 109 wRC+ (7th) | SP: 2.1 rWAR (21st) | RP: +4.00 WPA (1st) Summary: Offense has predictably cooled from their unsustainable early pace, though they have still been healthily above average the last 40 games despite missing Yelich & Hoskins for chunks of that time. Starting pitching over the last 40 has probably been closer to what most envisioned coming into the season. Bullpen has been nails all year, but especially over the last 40 where they have ensured the Brewers won most of the games they should have. CHI: 27-26 | WinDiv: 24.1% (FG) | 37.7% (BPro) Started (17-9) 112 wRC+ (6th) | SP: 2.7 rWAR (8th) | RP: +1.32 WPA (7th) Since (10-17) 80 wRC+ (27th) | SP: 3.3 rWAR (7th) | RP: -0.59 WPA (26th) Summary: Offense and bullpen have collapsed of late, starting pitching has been steady all year. STL: 25-26 | WinDiv: 17.4% (FG) | 21.0% (BPro) Started (15-24) 85 wRC+ (25th) | SP: 1.2 rWAR (25th) | RP: +0.24 WPA (20th) Since (10-2) 135 wRC+ (2nd) | SP: 0.2 rWAR (28th) | RP: +1.57 WPA (4th) Summary: Pretty abysmal across the board to start the year, but the offense and bullpen have gone berserk over their recent hot stretch. Rotation has been even worse than ours all year long despite the Cardinals offseason investment. PIT: 25-29 | WinDiv: 4.2% (FG) | 1.8% (BPro) Started (9-2) 120 wRC+ (7th) | SP: 1.0 rWAR (13th) | RP: +2.06 WPA (2nd) Since (16-27) 79 wRC+ (27th) | SP: 5.0 rWAR (8th) | RP: -2.32 WPA (30th) Summary: Offense and bullpen have been mirror images from the hot start compared to since then, rotation was already solid then got the Skenes boost. CIN: 23-30 | WinDiv: 4.6% (FG) | 2.9% (BPro) Started (14-10) 98 wRC+ (16th) | SP: 1.9 rWAR (13th) | +1.33 WPA (7th) Since (9-20) 75 wRC+ (30th) | SP: 3.1 rWAR (11th) | RP: -0.19 WPA (23rd) Summary: Starting pitching has been steady all year, but offense went from average to adios and bullpen has bombed simultaneously.

Well, whoever is in charge of picking airport codes then. I’ll refrain from making any landing strip jokes.

Dunno who’s in charge of picking the three letter MiLB acronyms but I feel like maybe CHR would have been a better choice than CLT for Charlotte.

Brewers had 36 games vs RH starters before Dunn was sent down. Ortiz started at 3B for 20 of those games. I agree that Dunn was playing too much, but it was never a straight platoon.

Brewers 3.5 game lead in the NLC is their largest margin of the season so far.

Yeah, there is definitely some grey area there, and also with the Manfred Man. I always thought assigning all the earned runs to the pitcher who put the runners on base was overly simplistic, but them’s the rules. Seems more equitable to charge De Los Santos with 1.25 ER for allowing the runners to reach 3rd (0.75 runs) and 2nd (0.50 runs) in the first place and then the other 0.75 ER to Nova for allowing them to score.

Yeah, best bet is the ASB, short handed for two days on either side. Also have off days Aug 1st and 5th, so could call him up July 31st which would be one day short handed (off day) three days short handed (off day). After that it’s probably expanded rosters in September.

Agreed on Guilarte, though believe Barrios was #21 so probably just a few points separating them. For me Barrios was an easy call over Guilarte since the org thought he deserved the higher placement & was performing better at the time of voting - still is with Guilarte at 101 wRC+ and a concerning 28.9 K% versus Barrios at 119 wRC+ and an encouraging 10.0 K% entering tonight. Depending on when the next voting is there could be a lot of competition for just one spot opening naturally with Gasser the only pending graduate. If it’s after the deadline that could potentially open some spots up too. I had my “top younger guys tier” at #7 through #10 with Yophery, Lara, Pratt, Knoth. Would probably slot Fillipo between Lara and Pratt if we re-voted today.

You get a Zero…and you get a Zero…and you get a Zero…but not everyone gets a Zero, that’s what makes the Zero Club so exclusive. Jose Nova (ACL) 1.1 IP | 0 H | 0 BB | 1 K Aidan Maldonado (A) 2.1 IP | 2 H | 2 BB | 4 K Bayden Root (A) 1.0 IP | 0 H | 0 BB | 1 K Aaron Rund (A+) 2.0 IP | 2 H | 2 BB | 1 K Craig Yoho (A+) 1.0 IP | 0 H | 1 BB | 2 K Yerlin Rodriguez (A+) 1.0 IP | 0 H | 0 BB | 1 K Russell Smith (AA) 3.0 IP | 0 H | 3 BB | 1 K Justin Yeager (AA) 1.0 IP | 3 H | 0 BB | 2 K James Meeker (AAA) 1.1 IP | 1 H | 1 BB | 2 K Abner Uribe (AAA) 1.1 IP | 1 H | 1 BB | 0 K

Cardinals staying hot as they’ve scored four runs here bottom of eight to take a 7-4 lead over the Cubs.

Yorman Galindez strong through four scoreless with 2 H | 2 BB | 6 K on 78 pitches. See if he gets one more inning with a 4-0 lead and the 8-9-1 hitters due up in the fifth.

Please step away from the velvet rope, admittance for Zero Club members only… Hayden Robinson (ACL) 3.0 IP | 2 H | 2 BB | 3 K Isaiah Jackson (ACL) 1.0 IP | 0 H | 3 BB | 2 K Jeferson Figueroa (A) 3.0 IP | 1 H | 0 BB | 7 K Stiven Cruz (A+) 1.0 IP | 0 H | 1 BB | 0 K Nick Merkel (AA) 2.2 IP | 0 H | 1 BB | 1 K Taylor Clarke (AAA) 2.0 IP | 1 H | 0 BB | 1 K Kevin Herget (AAA) 1.0 IP | 0 H | 0 BB | 1 K

They flashed up on the screen that the Red Sox team ERA of 2.69 was the lowest in franchise history through 50 games. Kutter Crawford was rocking an even shinier 2.17 ERA on his own personal ledger entering the game. Then they flashed up on the screen that the six earned runs the Brewers got off Crawford were the most allowed by a Red Sox starting pitcher all season.

Among 156 International League pitchers with at least 20 IP, Enoli comes in at... 1.76 FIP (2nd to Paul Skenes) | 1.31 ERA (7th) | 41.5 K% (2nd to Paul Skenes) | 19.6 SwStr% (1st) | .153 Avg Against (5th) | 56.8 GB% (7th) | 8.1 LD% (1st)

This evening's members of the exclusive Zero Club... Anfernny Reyes (ACL) 3.0 IP | 2 H | 0 BB | 4 K (*one unearned run*) Dikember Sanchez (ACL) 1.0 IP | 0 H | 0 BB | 2 K Blake Whiting (A) 2.0 IP | 1 H | 0 BB | 1 K Bayden Root (A) 1.0 IP | 1 H | 1 BB | 1 K Bo Bowman (AA) 3.1 IP | 0 H | 0 BB | 3 K Sam Gardner (AA) 3.0 IP | 0 H | 1 BB | 3 K Harold Chirino (AAA) 1.0 IP | 0 H | 1 BB | 0 K Rob Zastryzny (AAA) 1.0 IP | 1 H | 0 BB | 1 K DL Hall (AAA) 1.0 IP | 0 H | 1 BB | 1 K Evan McKendry (AAA) 2.0 IP | 1 H | 1 BB | 1 K Janson Junk (AAA) 2.1 IP | 2 H | 2 BB | 2 K

Yeah, Payamps had one blowup outing on April 3rd (4 ER in 0.1 IP). His other 12 appearances over the first five weeks covered 11.1 IP scoreless. He then had two outings before and after coming off the bereavement list where he gave up 4 ER over 1.1 IP. Since then he has 3.1 perfect frames with 5 K / 0 BB. That the bullpen has managed a +3.86 Win Probability Added (2nd in MLB) without Devin, plus Payamps and Uribe struggling, is pretty remarkable considering those were three of their four high leverage arms to close last season along with Megill (who also has missed a couple weeks this year).

Haha, that was definitely my favorite nugget when comparing the numbers.

Brewers offense is currently tied with the Phillies for 4th in MLB with a 115 wRC+ so far this year. Their 4.98 R/G is currently 3rd in MLB. For more contextual numbers they are 4th in PAs with RISP so they are putting a lot of pressure on pitchers and have batted to a 141 wRC+ (2nd in MLB) in those RISP situations. Sure, it sucks they got shutout yesterday, but it’s been way more boom than bust up to this point. The best run of recent Brewers offense I could think of off the top of my head was the 2nd half of 2018 when Yelich went nuclear. Brewers position players posted a 114 wRC+ over those 65 games.

Bryce Harper has a .913 career OPS in MLB and .941 in the minors. Brice Turang has a .642 career OPS in MLB and .740 in the minors. Both are left handed hitters named Bryice, but the similarities pretty much end there.

Halfway to the All Star Break seems like a good time as any to see which teams have done the most (or the least) to improve their postseason chances through the first 30% or so of the season. Format is Team | preseason FanGraphs Playoff Odds | today FanGraphs Playoff Odds | difference. NATIONAL LEAGUE BIG GAINERS PHI: 54.6% | 98.5% | +43.9% MIL: 30.0% | 67.9% | +37.9% CHC: 41.3% | 62.4% | +21.1% ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE SDP: 41.6% | 53.3% | +11.7% LAD: 93.3% | 99.5% | +6.2% ATL: 98.3% | 98.7% | +0.4% WAS: 0.2% | 0.4% | +0.2% COL: 0.0% | 0.0% | +/- 0.0% PIT: 16.2% | 12.1% | -4.1% BIG FALLERS NYM: 29.9% | 17.0% | -12.9% SFG: 43.4% | 28.5% | -14.9% CIN: 23.1% | 8.0% | -15.1% ARI: 51.2% | 33.8% | -17.4% MIA: 28.8% | 0.3% | -28.5% STL: 48.2% | 19.6% | -28.6% AMERICAN LEAGUE BIG GAINERS KCR: 13.0% | 57.7% | +44.7% BAL: 52.8% | 87.8% | +35.0% CLE: 33.4% | 62.4% | +29.0% NYY: 72.0% | 96.4% | +26.4% ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE SEA: 60.1% | 67.6% | +7.5% CHW: 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5% OAK: 2.5% | 0.2% | -2.3% BOS: 22.9% | 19.3% | -3.6% MIN: 65.3% | 56.8% | -8.5% DET: 28.1% | 18.1% | -10.0% BIG FALLERS TEX: 37.9% | 23.6% | -14.3% LAA: 16.8% | 1.8% | -15.0% TBR: 59.6% | 37.9% | -21.7% TOR: 49.0% | 18.0% | -31.0% HOU: 85.9% | 52.5% | -33.4%