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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    MiLB career numbers… Hiura (1,608 PA) 8.8 BB% | 23.6 K% Adames (2,681 PA) 12.5 BB% | 22.9 K% Urias (2,571 PA) 10.8 BB% | 13.5 K% Brinson (3,194 PA) 8.2 BB% | 26.2 K% Black (955 PA) 16.6 BB% | 18.3 K% Black has a way more patient approach at the plate than all those guys and has made more contact than all but Urias throughout their respective minor league careers. Their batting mechanics might share some similarities but it’s a whole different plate approach.
  2. sveumrules
    No doubt TT has more pop, but Perkins walks more with a 13.7 BB% last year compared to a 3.3 BB% for Taylor. That's how Blake ended up with a .326 OBP compared to only a .267 OBP for Tyrone.
  3. sveumrules
    His name is Blake Perkins. Last year, he posted 1.2 WAR in 168 PAs. Tyrone Taylor came in at 0.8 WAR in 243 PAs,
  4. sveumrules
    Who is the 4th OF if Perkins is sent down?
  5. sveumrules
    Ortiz has a 327/383/521 (128 wRC+) batting line over 504 PA in AAA, I don’t think he has anything left to prove there. Only way to find out if he can hit MLB pitching is to give him consistent PAs at the big league level.
  6. sveumrules
    Order since the last Freddy start has been… Fri 3/22: Peralta Sat 3/23: Miley 2 IP (Ross 5 IP) Sun 3/24: Hall Mon 3/25: Rea Tue 3/26: Ashby (listed as the probable on MLB) Obviously Hogg knows more than me, but looks like Rea would be lined up for the HO currently. Also plenty of room to move guys around with the early season off days FRI & MON. Could even throw Freddy on four days rest for the HO if they’re feeling really saucy. Something to keep an eye on too is Junis hasn’t pitched since 3/16 with his outing skipped last Friday on account of a sore shoulder. Could be an IL candidate to open the season if he doesn’t get in the last ST game tomorrow.
  7. sveumrules
    Played 68 games in the minors plus 28 games in MLB for a total of 96 games in 2022. But yeah, only 187 games in three full seasons since being drafted is a lot of lost development time.
  8. sveumrules
    186-107 (.635 W%) record, two B10 regular season championships, and six out of eight NCAA tourneys made seems like an above average résumé to me. I’m not saying Gard is some irreplaceable coaching savant, but there is a lot more room for downward mobility than there is for upward mobility from the Badgers current position as a consistent B10 contender and regular tournament team.
  9. sveumrules
    Looks like the Brewers front office isn’t the only one who prefers Winker over Hiura as Jesse has made the Nationals roster after hitting 324/479/459 this spring.
  10. sveumrules
    Last year’s rotation was only Top Ten on account of the defense behind them with their 11.2 FIP based WAR ranking 12th. Throw in the +68 DRS from the fielders and the rotation’s 15.8 runs allowed based WAR came in 4th. 2022 rotation wasn’t Top Ten in anything. Even with 77 GS from Corbin, Woody and Freddy they still finished 13th in both fWAR (11.4) and rWAR (12.0). 2021 was the only full season during the Brewers recent run of success where they had a legit dominant rotation with their 20.2 fWAR and 22.3 rWAR both ranking 2nd. 2018 and 2019 rotations were both 20th by fWAR (8.3 and 8.5 respectively), but middle of the pack by rWAR at 11.2 (15th) and 9.9 (16th). I don’t doubt the rotation will take a step back from last year’s results, but their peripherals weren’t that great to begin with and the defense that put them over the top is still here so it should be mitigated somewhat. I’d guess the 2024 rotation ends up more middle of the pack like the 2018/19 versions. If they do drop all the way to the Bottom Ten it will be their first time finishing that low since 2016.
  11. sveumrules
    JD Martinez to the Mets for $12M. MLBTR reports the breakdown as $4.5M this year then $1.5M each year from 2034-38.
  12. sveumrules
    Only a 23.5 K% for Keston this spring too, which is more in line with his AAA strikeout rates from the last couple years. Hopefully he rakes in Toledo and gets an MLB shot somewhere this year.
  13. sveumrules
    Looks like that was January 11th according to Cot's.
  14. sveumrules
    Going to need a larger sample from everybody, but so far the various metrics have been least impressed by Mitchell... Wiemer (1,026 innings) +5 DRS | +6.6 UZR | +8 OAA Frelick (446 innings) +6 DRS | +4.5 UZR | +7 OAA Perkins (400 innings) +11 DRS | +7.9 UZR | +7 OAA Mitchell (332 innings) +4 DRS | +2.2 UZR | +2 OAA
  15. sveumrules
    Obviously pitcher wins are like a novelty stat at this point, but Snell has 35 Ws in his two CY campaigns and 36 Ws combined in his other six seasons. Does a pretty good job summing up how inconsistent he has been year over year. 2018 (180 IP) 46 ERA- | 72 FIP- | 143 K%+ | 110 BB%+ | 65 HR9+ | 82 BABIP+ 2019-22 (413 IP) 95 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 139 K%+ | 119 BB%+ | 87 HR9+ | 106 BABIP+ 2023 (180 IP) 54 ERA- | 80 FIP- | 142 K%+ | 154 BB%+ | 61 HR9+ | 86 BABIP+ Pretty incredible how consistent his league adjusted K rate has remained over his two CY seasons and the four in between. Walk rate really went crazy this last year though. He’s a safe bet to be about 20% better than average by FIP, but yeah, the two CY seasons essentially came down to getting crazy BABIP/HR luck compared to the four intervening years where his lack of command resulted in higher than average BABIPs and an ERA that didn’t live up to his K and HR rates. Good new is SF is one of the best pitchers parks out there, though the Giants haven’t been able to leverage it into actual run prevention recently with a 3.94 ERA vs a 3,67 FIP the last two seasons, the 5th largest wrong way difference over that stretch with their -79 DRS (28th) likely playing a part.
  16. sveumrules
    Carter was an early 2nd (#32) after putting up 15.4 PPG / 4.8 RPG / 5.2 APG / 2.8 SPG on 430/391/821 shooting splits over his junior/senior seasons, both of which saw West Virginia advance to the Sweet 16 before losing to a pair of #1 seeds. Hepburn doesn’t have quite that level of production at 10.6 PPG / 3.1 RPG / 3.3 APG / 1.8 SPG on 395/371/716 shooting splits over his last two years. I think he’d need a huge tournament run this year, or to come back for his senior season and take a leap in production to approach Carter’s draft position.
  17. sveumrules
    Looks like Middleton is expected to play Sunday. With three B2Bs over the final 15 games that should give him ten to twelve games to get back up to speed before the playoffs barring further setbacks. Currently half a game ahead of the Cavs at #3 and 3.5 up on the Knicks for the #4 seed. Staying at #2/#3 would delay any potential Celtics match up to the ECF. Boston looks like an unbeatable juggernaut, but if we can keep everybody healthy I still think the Bucks have the best chance of anybody in the East to slay that dragon.
  18. sveumrules
    Always fun to read too much into the first minor league spring training lineups but Eduardo Garcia, center fielder, is a new look.
  19. sveumrules
    Especially considering the downfall was already two months deep by the time Hader was dealt and Josh was also a pretty big contributing factor to said downfall... 04/07/22 to 05/30/22 Team: 32-18 Hader: 16.2 IP | 0.00 ERA 05/31/22 to 07/29/22 Team: 24-26 Hader: 17.1 IP | 8.31 ERA 07/30/22 to 10/05/22 Team: 30-32 Rogers (MIL): 23.0 IP | 5.48 ERA Hader (SDP): 16.0 IP | 7.31 ERA
  20. sveumrules
    Looks like Davis has cleared waivers. Since his $6.9M salary was awarded at a hearing and not agreed upon twixt both parties prior to, he is only guaranteed $1.11M from the Giants. Another reason its in guys best interests to come to an agreement with the club before going in front of the panel.
  21. sveumrules
    My guess is that the regular IF alignment to open the season will be Ortiz at 3B, Adames at SS, Turang at 2B and Rhys at 1B. Monasterio in for Turang vs LHP at 3B with Ortiz sliding to 2B. Black waiting in the wings at Nashville with Wilken a dark horse for later in the season. Still think Sal is mostly getting reps at 3B just to increase his versatility and open up different lineup combos. Maybe he ends up there like once a week which would shake out to a couple dozen games or so.
  22. sveumrules
    -38 DRS | -7 OAA in 2240 career innings at 3B and -9 DRS | -11 OAA over only 665 innings in LF. Dude is pretty brutal afield. His metrics are fine at 1B (0 DRS | +2 OAA) but it’s also only 287 innings spread over seven calendar years, so huge grain of salt required. He’s better than Bauers, no doubt, but also $5.5M more expensive and would require some kind of prospect going back to SF. Guess it comes down to how much room there is in the budget and who the Giants would want in return.
  23. sveumrules
    Yes, the Brewers appear OK with Wes Clarke being the #2 catcher for a single exhibition game where he might catch a couple innings. That’s a long way from them being OK with him catching 50-60 games that matter in a regular season.
  24. sveumrules
    Who could have ever predicted that a guy coming off an ACL, who looked like a doubtful SS (+1 DRS | -4 OAA in 502 innings, mostly in 2021) but a plus 2B (+16 DRS | +8 OAA in 1346 innings) before the injury, would then return from that injury and struggle at SS? Internet commenters. Only SS I’d be offering is Turang, wouldn’t bail them out with Adames unless they really overpaid.
  25. sveumrules
    Author must not be a fan of the projections either if they think the Nationals (64.6 projected wins at FG | 58.2 projected wins at BPro) belong in a tier with the Pirates (77.7 | 72.6) and Brewers (80.8 | 79.7). NL essentially has three tiers this year with ATL/LAD at the top, WAS/COL at the bottom and the other 11 teams more or less in the middle projected between 78-85 wins with the exception of PECOTA being low on the Pirates.
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