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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    I'm seeing $7M guaranteed ($12M if the rarely exercised mutual option is picked up) for Junis, versus $5M for Houser this year, so only a couple million more in the most likely scenario. The dreaded projections on FanGraphs depth charts have Houser down for 128 IP of 4.56 ERA / 4.70 FIP shaking out to 1.0 WAR versus 125 IP of 4.34 ERA / 4.33 FIP for Junis shaking out to 1.7 WAR. I'm guessing the Brewers internal projections spit out something similar and they also feel like there is still meat on the developmental bone for Junis, whereas they've done all they can do with Houser and he is who he is at this point. Plus they get a prospect they liked too.
  2. sveumrules
    $350M+ seems like a pretty rich assumption. Trout extended for 10/360 in March 2019. Harper got 13/330 as a free agent in March 2019. Betts extended for 12/365 from the Dodgers in July 2020 after they traded for him with one year before FA. Tatis Jr extended for 14/340 in February 2021, but he was also two years younger than Belli and a SS at the time. Lindor extended for 10/341 from the Mets in March 2021 after they traded for him with one year before FA. Judge needed to hit FA to get 9/360 and that was three years later in 2022. If $350M+ four years out from FA were the parameters after only one MVP calibre season in 2019, I can see why the Dodgers never went for an extension.
  3. sveumrules
    Monasterio certainly exceeded expectations by providing anything at all last year, but an 87 wRC+ | 0.4 WAR | +0.06 WPA performance is setting the bar pretty low for incredible.
  4. sveumrules
    Con: got crushed last year. His 6.56 ERA was actually kinda shiny compared to his 7.49 xERA and 7.41 FIP. Con: Among 410 pitchers with at least 40 IP last year, his 3.09 HR9 ranked 410th. Con: His pitch characteristics were already marginal when he was having success (Stuff+ of 94 on his fastball and 102 on his slider in 2021-22) but they regressed big time in 2023 to 79 on the fastball and 89 on the slider.
  5. sveumrules
    He’s never known he was going to manage an MLB club heading into spring training, so I guess he’s never been in this specific position, but he did manage the Padres for 96 games back in 2015. He was also a head coach at Norte Dame and ASU for over 20 years. There will no doubt be some degree of a learning curve, but it shouldn’t be too steep given his past histories in the dugout and working collaboratively with this front office group for almost a decade now.
  6. sveumrules
    Team Remaining Free Agents (with FanGraphs Depth Charts Projected WAR) C: Pina (0.5) Zunino (0.3) IF: Belt (0.9) Solano (0.7) Andrus (0.6) Crawford (0.9) Mondesi (0.7) Chapman (3.4) OF: Bellinger (2.8) Taylor (1.2) Duvall (0.9) Pham (0.9) DH: JDM (0.6) SP: Snell (3.3) Montgomery (3.2) Clevinger (1.5) German (1.4) Lorenzen (1.3) Greinke (1.0) LR/MR: Syndegaard (0.7) Cueto (0.5) Lauer (0.5) Rucinski (0.4) SU: Martin (0.2) Bass (0.2) CL: Stanek (0.3) Had to cheat a little in the bullpen with only three FA relievers projected for even 0.2 WAR, but if I added this all up right it comes out to 14.4 WAR on offense and 14.5 WAR of pitching. That 28.9 projected WAR is better than four teams - COL (18.3), WAS (21.5), CWS (23.7), OAK (24.8) - and just behind a fifth, KCR (29.3). Assuming say $100M for the Boras four, plus some one year $5M type deals for like a half dozen of the other guys and then $1M each for the rest comes out around $150M in payroll which looking at Cots would rank 15th in MLB, just ahead of the Rockies in a somewhat hilarious bit of kismet.
  7. sveumrules
    Brewers comp that always pops into my head for Sal is something along the lines of Nori Aoki with better defense.
  8. sveumrules
    Pirates extend Keller for 5/77, buying out three free agent years. Here’s how he has fared over the last two seasons among 119 pitchers with at least 200 IP… 353 IP (19th) | 95 ERA- (62nd) | 92 FIP- (43rd) | 103 K%+ (51st) | 90 BB%+ (70th) | 84 HR9+ (28th) | 107 GB%+ (33rd) | 111 LD%+ (105th) | 4.8 rWAR (52nd) | 5.3 fWAR (37th) So his best attributes look like quantity and getting a nice amount of grounders allowing him to limit HRs, with the trade off being middling K/BB rates and a scary line drive percentage. All in all probably a good deal for the Pirates, but also not someone you really want being more than a #3 guy in a playoff calibre rotation.
  9. sveumrules
    Hope you are right. His seasonal totals for professional PAs so far are 268 (2021), 357 (2022) and 108 (2023) so cracking 400 would represent a new career high.
  10. sveumrules
    Main issue with Mitchell is he just can't be counted on to stay on the field. 29 of 54 games at Wisco and 35 of 66 games at Biloxi in 2021. 44 of 99 games at Biloxi in 2022 before finishing out mostly healthy over the last couple months at AAA/MLB. 19 of 162 games at Milwaukee in 2023 with 8 games in Nashville. All told, in three full professional seasons, Mitchell has played 187 games and taken 732 plate appearances, a little over one season of playing time.
  11. sveumrules
    I agree the bullpen is unlikely to match their WPA from last year, but I think the idea is that hopefully improved offense will give the bullpen a little more breathing room and less win probability they’ll be responsible for adding themselves. Last years 92 wRC+ shook out to -61.4 batting runs and -5.09 WPA, so getting back to average would be something like five to six wins up depending how that hypothetical additional offense is spread out across the leverage spectrum. If the bullpen regresses from +11.73 WPA down to something like 2018 (+5.65), 2019 (+5.22) or 2021 (+5.90) levels that’s around six wins down. Starting pitchers came in at 15.8 rWAR last year, if they regress down to 2019 (9.8) or 2018 (11.2) levels that’s another five to six wins down. Obviously that’s a lot of assumptions and back of the envelope math, but this feels like around an 86 to 88 wins or so kind of team to me.
  12. sveumrules
    The players union is pretty strongly against any sort of deadline in FA… “We actually made proposals to that effect to the MLBPA. They were not warmly received,” -Manfred I don’t have a problem with things as currently constituted. The game of baseball is long and drawn out with regular periods of inactivity, winter is long and drawn out with regular periods of inactivity. Free agency being long and drawn out with regular periods of inactivity flows harmoniously with the natural order of things.
  13. sveumrules
    I’m not sure what “(tier 1) prospect” is supposed to mean, but by my definition the only tier 1 prospect in the Padres system would be Salas. I’d say Merrill is a clear tier below Salas and easily a tier above everyone else. If one wanted to put De Vries in this tier too I could see it on upside, but he’s still so far away. Third tier for me would be the pitchers - Snelling, Lesko, Iriarte and Thorpe. This would be the most aggressive placement I could see giving to Zavala but considering the hit tool and corner OF risk, I’d have him as a tier four prospect at best, or not nearly enough to get Frelick by himself.
  14. sveumrules
    Burst on the scene back in 2018 as a 5’6” 17th round pick going 6-1 with a 2.18 ERA over 33 IP (mostly at Wisco when it was still low A) with a pretty ridiculous 54 Ks to only 7 BBs. Farm system was pretty weak back then so I believe he got some back end Top 20 love. Followed that up with a decent 2019 on the mound, 59 IP of 3.19 ERA split between A+/AA with 77 K and 25 BB. Also played 16 games in CF batting 333/391/381 over 69 PA with a nice 7 K vs 6 BB split. Then the pandemic happened, he got hurt and essentially lost all of 2020, 2021 and 2022. Bounced back nicely last year at Nashville with 57 IP of 2.53 ERA and 74 K vs 31 BB, but got crushed in his tiny MLB sample - 3 HR in 3 IP. Looking at the International League leaderboard minimum 50 IP last year that 2.53 ERA was good for 2nd lowest with Thomas Pannone (2.70) and Ethan Small (3.18) also cracking the Top 10 out of the Nashville pen. Andrews 31.1 K% came in 6th and his 16.1% swinging strike rate came in 4th.
  15. sveumrules
    Tigers fans are going on a decade of sad days now, last making the postseason in 2014. Since then they have one winning season (86-76 in 2016), and their 579-722 overall record is dead last in MLB. Torkelson has -14 DRS and -8 OAA so far in his brief career at 1B, playing Hiura (-16 DRS and -12 OAA career at 2B) next to him would be brutal. Throw in that Detroit 3B posted an MLB worst -22 DRS and -18 OAA last year and that’d be an almost 2007 Brewers level disregard for infield defense.
  16. sveumrules
    Over the last two seasons since changing his repertoire Junis has a 4.18 ERA and 3.69 FIP covering 198 IP. Considering FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than actual ERA is they are projecting Junis for a healthy bit of regression already.
  17. sveumrules
    There are 853 pitchers listed on the FanGraphs depth charts. 128 of them have a projection below a 3.90 ERA. 139 of them have a projection above a 4.80 ERA. They are projecting 68.7% of pitchers between that range, well short of 90%. So...nope.
  18. sveumrules
    Padres are trying to cut salary, so them giving up prospects to pay Adames $12.25M to play 2B (when his best attribute is SS defense) is probably unlikely at this point. Putting a gold glove calibre 3B at DH also puts a huge dent in Machado's value. Can't imagine Willy would be too happy about moving off SS before hitting free agency either.
  19. sveumrules
    As Dame goes, the Bucks go... 20-2 when he shoots 45% from the field, 15-14 when he doesn't. 24-3 when he scores 25 points, 11-13 when he doesn't. 0-5 when he hasn't played. I'll give him a first half pass between getting divorced and going from being thee guy to having to be more of a 1B, but increased consistency from him down the stretch and into the playoffs would be the most impactful change.
  20. sveumrules
    The Brewers are already projected to have a decent rotation. If all the things you outlined fall into place they'll easily be a Top 10 rotation. Last year the rotation itself wasn't any great shakes with their 11.2 FIP based WAR coming in at 13th. Once the defense entered the equation though (+68 DRS | 2nd), the rotation came out at 15.8 runs allowed based WAR, 4th. The Brewers top notch defense (+249 DRS | 3rd from 2017-23) and demonstrated ability to coax more out of pitchers than their name or past performance might imply (3.88 ERA vs 4.08 FIP from 2017-23) has been a huge part of their success over the last seven seasons.
  21. sveumrules
    Projections certainly aren't gospel, the average error bars around team win projections are normally something like plus or minus 8 wins per season, for individual players the average error bars are around 10 to 12 points of OPS+ or ERA+ in either direction. Even with those error bars, they are exponentially better at projecting future outcomes than any single human brain can muster. The Brewers have also beaten their projections more consistently than any other team over the last seven full seasons at a total of +58 wins, so it's safe to assume whatever internal projections they use are better than the publicly available ones.
  22. sveumrules
    Thorpe and Iriarte would feel a little light to me. Sub one of them out for one of Snelling or Dylan Lesko and I think that's a lot closer to what I'd be looking for.
  23. sveumrules
    184,110 PAs in 2023 at a .320 league average OBP maths out to 125,195 outs. 41,844 Ks / 125,295 outs = 33.4% of outs were Ks. That leaves 66.6% of outs that were registered by fielders, just shy of twice as many or still the overwhelming majority. One of the main reasons the Brewers have given up the 3rd fewest hits in MLB going back all the way to 2017 (four years before Burnes, Woody and Peralta put it all together in 2021) is because they have consistently been among the best teams (+249 DRS | 3rd) at turning batted balls into outs instead of hits.
  24. sveumrules
    I think so, yes. Hoskins has been far more consistent than Soler throughout their careers. Rhys has five seasons between 2.0 and 2.4 WAR. Soler has one season at 3.7 WAR back in 2019 with the juiced ball, a 1.9 WAR season last year and that's it. His third best season was 0.7 WAR as a rookie back in 2014. 2021 RH: 443 PA | 127 wRC+ | 2.0 WAR JS: 602 PA | 100 wRC+ | -0.3 WAR 2022 RH: 672 PA | 122 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR JS: 306 PA | 95 wRC+ | 0.5 WAR Soler's 2023 (126 wRC+ | 1.9 WAR) actually came in a little lower overall than Hoskins 2022 (122 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR). Career RH: 2877 PA | 126 wRC+ | 11.6 WAR (2.4 WAR / 600 PA) JS: 3472 PA | 112 wRC+ | 7.4 WAR (1.3 WAR / 600 PA)
  25. sveumrules
    Rosario was re-signed that offseason for 2/18, so they had no problem bringing him back after his postseason success. Maybe they preferred him to Soler because he was cheaper and could still play the field even though he doesn't have nearly the same power potential. They gave Ozuna 4/65 covering 2021-24, so far they've gotten 74 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR (2021), then 89 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR (2022) before he finally paid it off this last year with a 139 wRC+ and 3.3 WAR. So for the first three years and $46M of the Ozuna deal they got a total of 2.5 WAR and one productive season. Therein lies the danger of paying big money for multiple years of a bat only DH who doesn't provide value anywhere else.
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