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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Pretty much what I was going to say. Can't see a case putting him any higher than Henderson. Only guy in the 17-20 range I'd maybe consider over Dunn is O'Rae just because I love his skillset so much, but don't think he's ever going to develop any meaningful power whereas Dunn has already flashed some at AA. -
Brewers trade with Phillies. Acquire Oliver Dunn
sveumrules replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Old for the level, sure, but Dunn just put up a 148 wRC+ at AA. I doubt Moore or Mendez ever come close to that kind production. -
Maybe @Brock Beauchamp has stuff that old archived somewhere? Searched posts with Counsell in the title and looks like the oldest hit was April 2021.
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Yup. Contreras (5.4 WAR), Miley (3.4 rWAR), Payamps (+3.01 WPA), Peguero (+1.42 WPA), Wilson (+1.32 WPA), Rea (1.3 rWAR), Perkins (1.2 WAR), Canha (1.0 WAR) Miller (0.9 WAR), Teheran (0.8 rWAR), Santana (0.7 WAR) and even Anderson (0.5 WAR) all came out in the positive to the tune of about 20 wins versus Winker (-0.8 WAR), Voit (-0.4 WAR), Singleton (-0.4 WAR), Tapia (-0.3 WAR) costing only a couple wins on the negative side. Even stretch run IGT whipping boy Chafin ended up with a dead nuts even zero point zero WPA on the season. What will offseason two yield? I don’t know, but there are many viable possibilities all across the buy sell spectrum and I’m excited to see how it all plays out over the next few months. Jackson Chourio is hitting 391/472/565 in winter league, that means way more than anything happening in this thread.
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Nobody quit anything. Neither Stearns nor Counsell were beholden to Milwaukee. Did Sabathia or Fielder quit when they signed elsewhere as highly regarded free agents?
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Just like Mendoza with the Mets, Espada with the Astros, Vogt with Cleveland. For all his altruism, Counsell’s record deal doesn’t seem to have had much impact on the managerial market yet.
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Would have preferred a young unknown first timer from outside the organization, but still better than a Shildt, Mattingly or Ross type so shrug emoji. The organization obviously has a better idea about Murphy’s capabilities than I do, so guess I’ll hope they got it right. The player moves they end up making the rest of the winter are going to have a way bigger impact on how 2024 plays out than this hire (whoever it was) anyway.
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Ouch. Hopefully means more minutes for Andre Jackson Jr,
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That’s Sveumer’s senior picture stolen from the internet. My earliest Brewers specific memory is pulling an Earnie Riles from my first ever pack of 1986 Topps baseball cards.
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I’m not old enough to remember those teams first hand, but it’s pretty tight by raw winning percentage. 1978-83: 518-400 (.564 W%) 2018-23: 487-384 (.559 W%) 1978-83 played the same 12 teams for all 918 of those games with a much tighter payroll spread league wide. Didn’t the whole collusion scandal go on during this time? 2018-23 played much more varied competition while facing a greater payroll disparity. They definitely got to those very similar winning percentages in drastically different ways. 1978-83 pitchers posted a 101 ERA- (14th) and 104 FIP- (21st) compared to a 91 ERA- (5th) and 95 FIP- (5th) for 2018-23. On the position player side 1978-83 came in at 114 wRC+ (1st) and -57.7 DEF (16th) compared to a 99 wRC+ (16th) and +107.5 DEF (1st) for 2018-23.
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So last played 3B at AA in 2019 with zero innings anywhere other than 2B since. Some adventurous team might be willing to try India at 3B after a five year, two level layoff at the position but I highly doubt it would be the Brewers giving up assets to roll those dice.
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No thanks on India. Among 27 second basemen with at least 1,500 innings since 2021 he is 26th in DRS (-21) and 27th in OAA (-23). That puts him in the bucket where he pretty much has to hit for a 120 wRC+ to have any value. He’s at 960 PA of 98 wRC+ shaking out to 1.7 WAR since his ROY campaign.
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He had 34.2% and 26.9% K rates over just under 60 IP each at A+/AA with TBR in 2021. For whatever reason (injury, wasn’t ready for AAA yet) that bottomed out to 14.1% over 60 IP at AAA with CLE in 2022. This year he bounced back to a 28.7% K rate over 137 IP at AA.
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That was my first thought, but we only got four guys for Hader, not six…so a 1/3 dozed nobodies?
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Nice comeback after an ugly first quarter, but just ran out of steam there at the end. Gotta think they hold on if Dame was closing it out instead of gassed Giannis turning it over twice in a row down the stretch.
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Got a good chuckle out of this in Ben Clemens chat at FanGraphs today… Sanford: Where would you have ranked Craig Counsell’s managerial services in the top 50? Ben Clemens: Haha hmmmmmmm Ben Clemens: I think I’d rather add Counsell to my team than Wacha, so at least in the top 25
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Redd Vencher’s 2024 Payroll Blueprint
sveumrules replied to Redd Vencher's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Yeah, last two years Baez is at 75 wRC+ and 2.7 WAR over 1137 PAs. Adames is at 101 wRC+ and 8.1 WAR over 1255 PAs last two years. Willy in Tampa put up a 103 wRC+ and 5.7 WAR over 1254 PAs. Kind of uncanny how close those PAs and wRC+ are with improved defense accounting for the WAR difference. Outside of the 135 wRC+ he posted over 413 PA when we first acquired him he has been a little above average in aggregate over his other 2,500 career PAs. -
Royals had a couple middling seasons after their WS runs, but have won 338 games since 2018, fewest in MLB. Tigers at 355 are second worst. Until they turn out more than Bobby Witt, I'd have them down there with the Rockies and A's among the bottom three or four run franchises in the game currently. Brewers player development is on the entire other end of the spectrum.
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What is “a 1/2 dozed nobodies” even supposed to mean?
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Definitely a fun game last night. Pistons predictably went on a run after Giannis was tossed, then Dame came in down by eight points with like nine minutes left and just did his thing. Brook also came up huge at the end with a nice deep three - blocked shot combo for the dagger and knife twist. B2B with Indy tonight who are currently 2nd in pace and 1st in scoring on the young season with Tyrese Haliburton leading the way (& doing Oshkosh proud) at 23 PPG | 12 APG | 4 RPG on .627 TS% so far.
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Well put, I've pretty much emotionally dis-attached myself from sports entirely at this point. More out of logical necessity than anything else. Outside of the stretch run and playoff games, I get more emotionally charged watching the various iterations of MTV's The Challenge every week than I do the Packers, Bucks or Brewers. Following the minor leagues might be the biggest consistent thrill left for me in sports. Some of my favorite baseball moments this summer were watching Chourio ABs on GameDay on my phone, then sliding over to the game thread to post CHOO-CHOO-CHOURIO...OH-OH.
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I don’t think they necessarily need to do or not do anything specific. If they get good offers for Burnes, Adames, maybe even Williams, sure, deal them and try to do a quick reload or whatever one wants to call it. If teams are only offering up poo poo platters, keep them, add some pieces this winter, and try to compete again in 2024. Who knows, maybe with how things shook out with Counsell, Mark A gets aggressive this winter and we see another Yelich/Cain 2018 kind of offseason.
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Well said, that is the essentially the crux of the whole thing. Of the names mentioned by Rosenthal, my preference would be one of McCullough, Espada, or Snitker. Someone that hasn’t managed before from outside the organization. A fresh voice/approach as we transition to whatever the future holds. Of the other three I’d probably order it Weeks, Murphy, Mattingly. But ultimately I know enough to know I don’t really know anything about any of these guys so I’ll hope Arnold makes the right call, even if it doesn’t align with my personal feelings.
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How can you not be pedantic about baseball?
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Depends on where one draws the line of ace-hood. There are 112 pitchers with at least 200 IP over the last two seasons. Burnes ranks... 395 IP (7th) | 75 ERA- (13th) | 82 FIP- (24th) | 79 xFIP- (13th) | 125 K%+ (14th) | 87 BB9+ (63rd) | 88 HR9+ (40th) | 10.1 rWAR (5th) | 8.0 fWAR (12th) Compare that to 2021-22, where there were 114 pitchers with at least 200 IP and Burnes ranked... 369 IP (6th) | 66 ERA- (8th) | 60 FIP- (2nd) | 64 xFIP- (1st) | 143 K%+ (3rd) | 69 BB%+ (23rd) | 65 HR9+ (11th) | 11.6 rWAR (3rd) | 12.0 fWAR (1st) Looking at that I'd say he has gone from being an ace over 2021-22 to just a standard #1 starter from 2022-23.
