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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Yeah, thought it was a sac fly off the bat but then it just kept going.
  2. sveumrules
    SMOOTH 🎸🎸
  3. sveumrules
    Edwin Jimenez dealing and with efficiency, six scoreless with 2 H | 1 BB | 3 K on only 56 pitches. Wilken singled to start the bottom of six, now 2-2 with a walk.
  4. sveumrules
    The hit rate for international prospects is extremely small because developing foreign teenagers is a long, hard process. That Stearns and company have Uribe already contributing with Chourio and Quero not that far off, after taking over an organization with such a dismal track record on the international front, could be interpreted as signs of progress. Or maybe not, who knows, I don’t pretend to know the future with any degree of certainty. What fun would that be? I do know that his name is Kevin Ereu though, and he’s the same age as a high school junior so writing him off as some kind of bust just because he didn’t immediately hit the ground running in the DSL is probably a little pre-mature, even if the odds are overwhelmingly stacked against him (or any other million dollar international teenager) ever becoming an MLB star.
  5. sveumrules
    Which college/HS did Abner Uribe go to? Quero is looking like a pretty nice outlier so far too, up to #34 on the MLB Top 100. Stearns & company overhauled the international department some years ago, and we’re now starting to see the fruits of those labors. Results from past regimes are of minimal relevance at this point.
  6. sveumrules
    Yeah. Any talk of relocation at this point is just a negotiating tactic to garner headlines and play on casual fan emotion. The Rays stadium lease is up three years before ours, so it’s a lot more pertinent for a franchise like them who have way worse stadium and fan support situations, and even then they are still considered unlikely to relocate at this point.
  7. sveumrules
    MLBTR article had these quotes which seem to communicate Mark A’s position… The Brewers want “Major League Baseball to remain in Wisconsin for the next generation and beyond,” says Rick Schlesinger, president of business operations for the team. Manfred said in May that he thinks “the Brewers are interested in a long-term relationship and an extension of the lease that’ll keep them here.”
  8. sveumrules
    There have essentially been eight different eras in those fifty plus years… 1970-77 | 550-738 .427 (The Expansion Years) 1978-83 | 518-400 .564 (Molitor Yount Glory Years) 1984-86 | 215-268 .445 (Molitor Yount Hangover Years) 1987-92 | 508-464 .523 (Molitor Yount Twilight Years) 1993-06 | 981-1,219 .446 (Fourteen Years In The Wilderness) 2007-11 | 426-384 .526 (Braun Fielder Years) 2012-16 | 380-430 .469 (Late Melvin Early Stearns Years) 2017-23 | 545-444 .551 (Stearns/Arnold Competitive Years) This window has objectively been their best shot at a WS in 40 years. Will it pay off this year, or next, or sometime after that? Probably not, the odds will always be stacked against the Brewers winning a WS. But this window (even if it never pays off in a WS) has already been the second best stretch in franchise history, so I’ll keep enjoying it as long as it lasts because the alternative is irrelevance.
  9. sveumrules
    rWAR is the best metric to measure starting pitching because it is essentially just runs allowed and innings pitched converted to WAR. You want your starters to throw as many innings and allow as few runs as possible. WPA is better than WAR for relievers because it accounts for leverage and context. I separated defense and hitting for the position player group instead of just using WAR because there has frequently been a stark difference between our position players hitting and fielding abilities. I prefer wRC+ to runs scored for offense because it takes park and league run scoring environment into account. Which metrics support your position?
  10. sveumrules
    This year they are at… RP: +6.79 WPA (1st) Def; +47 DRS (2nd) SP: 9.1 rWAR (10th) Hit: 89 wRC+ (25th) Last year it was… Def: +53 DRS (7th) Hit: 104 wRC+ (11th) SP: 13.0 rWAR (14th) RP: +1.68 WPA (16th) In 2021 it was… SP: 22.3 rWAR (2nd) RP: +5.90 WPA (5th) Def: +61 DRS (5th) Hit: 98 wRC+ (19th) 2019 breakdown… RP: +5.22 WPA (6th) Hit: 102 wRC+ (12th) Def: +26 DRS (13th) SP: 9.9 rWAR (16th) and 2018… Def: +121 DRS (2nd) RP: +5.65 WPA (6th) Hit: 105 wRC+ (10th) SP: 11.2 rWAR (15th)
  11. sveumrules
    The Brewers haven’t had much pitching this year. As a staff they have a 23.1 K% (14th), an 8.3 BB% (14th) and a 1.29 HR/9 (24th). Put it all together and their 4.39 FIP ranks 21st. But add in the position player’s defense (+47 DRS | 2nd), and suddenly the staff’s ERA is a more respectable, but still not good, 4.06 (13th). The only thing holding up the pitching staff has been Burnes and the mismanaged bullpen that has posted an MLB best +6.79 WPA.
  12. sveumrules
    They added Santana/Canha to address black hole production from 1B/DH and Chafin for bullpen depth. That’s more than nothing. No realistic combination of moves could have gotten them to the Braves (current WS odds of 25.2% FG | 19.4% BPro) or even the Dodgers (15.4% FG | 16.3% BPro) level. Last year, when the Padres traded for Soto, Hader, Bell and Drury their WS odds went from 4.3% to 9.1%.
  13. sveumrules
    No “all in” bats were dealt this deadline. Even if one was available, this offense plus one “all in” bat is still like three or four “all in” bats behind Atlanta.
  14. sveumrules
    Biloxi falls 4-2. Isaac Collins (0-2, BBx2), Carlos Rodriguez (2-4) and Freddy Zamora (2-3, BB) all reached multiple times while Luis Amaya, James Meeker and Zach Vennaro combined for five frames of scoreless relief work with 3 H | 1 BB | 4 K.
  15. sveumrules
    ACL Brewers win 6-2 with Alexander Perez (2-5, SB), Eric Bitonti (2-4, 2B, BB) and Juan Baez (2-5, SBx2) leading the way on offense. Was a group effort on the pitching side with Gerson Calzadilla throwing a scoreless frame (1 K, 1 BB) to lower his season ERA to 0.98 with 36 K and 10 BB over 36.2 IP for the 20 year old Venezuelan. Recent signee KC Hunt also threw his second scoreless frame (1 K, 1 H) since coming aboard.
  16. sveumrules
    Patrick Dorrian with another tank (111.6 MPH, 443 feet) but Nashville trails 3-1 middle of six.
  17. sveumrules
    BEEFCAKE
  18. sveumrules
    The last four full seasons their OD payroll ranks have been 20th, 19th, 19th and 17th per Cots. From 2007 through 2015 Cots has them 15th, 15th, 17th, 17th, 17th, 13th, 19th, 16th and 20th on opening day. The only time they went cheap in the last 15+ years was 2016-18 when they ranked 30th, 30th and then 26th in their NLCS year. The current $154M number on Spotrac would be a franchise record, I believe. Mark A & partners have consistently outspent their market size by a pretty considerable margin. Whatever investments they’ve made on the international and amateur side have also paid, and continue to pay dividends.
  19. sveumrules
    Is it a problem? He has hired professionals to run his team who have done such a good job that Steve Cohen is preparing to shatter industry compensation records to lure them all away. Owner involvement isn’t always a good thing, Soup pitched great!!
  20. sveumrules
    Jay Jaffe had an article detailing their collapse a few days ago. Basically stopped hitting (106 wRC+ through June 30 vs an 82 wRC+ since) and bullpen blew up (+1.31 WPA through June 30 vs an MLB worst -2.84 WPA since).
  21. sveumrules
    46 PAs of late and close situations has next to zero predictive capabilities. It’s the definition of statistical noise. If Keston is so good late and close why did he have a 408 OPS in 31 late/close PAs in 2021 and a 523 OPS in 33 late/close PAs in 2020? There are 335 players who have come to bat with at least 500 RBI opportunities since 2019. Keston ranks 303rd with a 12.15 RBI percentage (lower than Lorenzo Cain or Ben Gamel), largely on account of his 36% career K rate. Unsurprisingly, other high K guys like Joey Gallo (37.7 K% vs 11.54 RBI%), Patrick Wisdom (37.4 K% vs 11.66 RBI%) and Mike Zunino (36.4 K% vs 12.32 RBI%) also fare poorly at driving in runners. If you want someone at bat to drive in a run with men on base, Keston would be one of the last guys you’d want up there.
  22. sveumrules
    Not a JS subscriber, but I believe these are the most recent CC quotes on the topic.
  23. sveumrules
    Pretty crazy that the defending World Series Champs, who gave Jose Abreu 3/58.5 in FA, have to pick up our scraps for 1B, all while trying to catch the Rangers for the division lead. It’s almost like there aren’t sixty guys out there who can just roll out of bed and put up a 110 wRC+ no big deal to play 1B/DH for every team.
  24. sveumrules
    You made it 23 hours.
  25. sveumrules
    Brewers are now 5-5 this year when surrendering six runs.
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