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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    The Phillies hit 275/373/565 vs ATL compared to 253/337/513 so far vs ARI. Did the Braves have no business being in the postseason either?
  2. sveumrules
    Agree on pretty much all counts, @Joseph Zarr. Outside of the obvious health caveats, this season is primarily going to boil down to how much ball dominance Giannis is willing to cede over to Dame. Point Giannis needs to be relegated to after grabbing a defensive board or when he is leading the 2nd unit while Dame isn’t on the floor.
  3. sveumrules
    Just watched Everything Everywhere All At Once for the first time.
  4. sveumrules
    Feels like Canha’s option decision could be an indicator as to which path the Brewers offseason is more likely to take. If they pick it up, that probably tilts the odds more towards keeping Burnes/Adames for next year versus declining the option likely tipping the scales more towards dealing Burnes/Adames (and maybe Williams too while they’re at it).
  5. sveumrules
    Don’t even have to squint to see the Sal Frelick comp for Luis. Guess the big differences would be switch hitter vs lefty, and then Lara being essentially three years ahead of Sal in terms of age relative to level assuming he opens next year in Wisco at age 19 vs Frelick opening there in 2022 at age 22. Even if Luis spends a whole year at each level, that would still have him in the MLB conversation around age 22.
  6. sveumrules
    Terry Stotts has resigned from his role on the Bucks coaching staff. Haven’t seen an official reason given, but has to be either health/family related, didn’t want to re-commit to the daily grind at age 65 after two years off, or some kind of butting of heads with coach Griff slash maybe lingering bad blood with Dame from their Portland days? Whatever the cause, it leaves a pretty big hole in the coaching staff on the precipice of the regular season. Guessing Prunty just gets promoted to lead assistant? Also saw D’Antoni currently has an advisor role with the Pelicans, maybe a lead assistant gig with a Championship contender could entice him away?
  7. sveumrules
    Looks like it's a split of 75% manager & coach voting with the other 25% coming via the Saber Defensive Index (which appears to be a mix of DRS and StatCast). Contreras had a great year behind the plate, especially in the framing department, but Moreno and Bailey were 1st/2nd in the NL for both DRS and Statcast throwing runs so it's not like they were slouches back there. JTR started 14 extra games and caught 128 more innings than even the 2nd most prolific NL catcher, and had Contreras by 22 starts and 200 innings. I have no problem with him getting the 3rd finalist spot on the quantity gap alone considering the attrition rate behind the dish.
  8. sveumrules
    2018 draft had high school hitters Turang, Joe Gray Jr. and Micah Bello as the first three picks. HSHs selected between then and the most recent draft were… 2019: Darrien Miller (9th round) 2020: none 2021: Roc Riggio (11th round, didn’t sign), Quinton Low (13th round, two way player), Jace Avina (14th round) 2022; Dylan O’Rae (4th round), Luke Adams (12th round) Definitely exciting for the Brewers to land both Pratt and Bitonti as we haven’t really had teenage infield power prospects of that calibre since I don’t even really know off the top my head, Brett Lawrie maybe?
  9. sveumrules
    BRef has phonetic pronunciations on some player pages, but nothing for Boeve. Maybe because he’s still in the minors? There was a Joe Boever that played in MLB from 1985-96, and BRef has that pronounced BAY-ver. Based on that, I would guess Boeve rhymes with forgave or could be substituted in Sonny & Cher’s hit “I’ve Got You Boeve”.
  10. sveumrules
    Those are two rather large assumptions stated as future certainties. The lowest attendance in MP/AmFam history was 1.7M back in 2003, 21K per game twenty years ago. With a capacity of 41,900 attendance would essentially have to slice that 2003 number in half to to 10.5K per game to hit 3/4 empty. The only two games under 20K this year were the Tuesday/Wednesday after Opening Day. I’ll take the over.
  11. sveumrules
    Entering today it’s the Phillies at 137 wRC+. Brewers hit 309/385/382 (114 wRC+).
  12. sveumrules
    During their draft summers... Brown hit 308/471/539 (17 PA) in the ACL Boeve hit 500/556/1000 (36 PA) in the ACL Brown hit 262/370/441 (100 PA) at CAR Boeve hit 250/333/333 (84 PA) at WIS Boeve hasn't had a crack at his first full season yet, but Brown hit... Slow Start A+: 12 G | 54 PA | 102/185/102 Figured It Out A+: 36 G | 162 PA | 326/426/437 INJURED Return from Injury/Promoted to AA A+/AA: 20 G | 79 PA | 235/329/309 Currently in Fall League AZL: 8 G | 35 PA | 314/400/457 So we've seen Brown hit for 17 PA in the ACL, 100 PA at CAR, 162 PA at WIS and now 35 PA in the AZL versus only seeing Boeve hit for 36 PA in the ACL. I hope that Boeve turns out like Black too, but that's putting a lot of faith into those 36 PAs as a man among boys on the complex. Brown has a performance record well beyond that level already while being worlds better on the bases and in the field.
  13. sveumrules
    Because Hiura was also injured from May 13th until June 16th. Winker didn’t hit the IL until May 27th. Ruf got hurt June 2nd. When Hiura did return he didn’t have the same pop with only 114 wRC+ from June 16 through July 31 compared to a 157 wRC+ before getting hurt. By the time Rowdy went on the IL they had already traded for Santana and Canha to fill 1B/DH down the stretch.
  14. sveumrules
    MLBTR projected $11.6M, would guess he signs something like 2/25. $5M this year to rehab, and then $20M (right around the same as the QO) for 2025.
  15. sveumrules
    I think all he's saying is that the Brewers (5 runs in 2 games), scored more runs per game this postseason than the Dodgers (6 runs in 3 games) or Braves (8 runs in 4 games). Nowhere did he say he was content with anything. I think it makes plenty of sense to post the comment. It is another data point to show how truly random outcomes can occur over such small samples even to the very best teams in the game. Context is important. If anyone said coming into the postseason that the Brewers offense would score more runs per game than the Braves or Dodgers they would have been openly mocked, and rightly so. But it still happened anyway...because the postseason is largely random.
  16. sveumrules
    I don't think he's a surefire no doubt MLB shortstop at this point, but after what he showed this year (when healthy) I think the odds are better now that he sticks at SS than they were when he was originally drafted. If not, he should be easily plus at 2B.
  17. sveumrules
    Tight voting definitely captures the thin margins separating the three top candidates. I probably would have voted for Williams #1 since he was the most consistent all year finishing up with +4.09 WPA and 2.9 rWAR as the top dog in what ended up being the best bullpen in MLB by both WPA (+11.73) and rWAR (8.6). On strict performance I probably would have had Burnes #2 because while the peripherals were similar (matching 87 FIP- marks for both Corbin & Freddy), Burnes did throw those extra 28 innings with better run prevention. Freddy would be #3 for me, but I can see how he came out on top since his performance exceeded expectations whereas Devin more or less met expectations and Corbin probably ended up short of where most hoped he would.
  18. sveumrules
    Can’t quibble too much considering I forgot to vote and it’s only a couple two tree spots, but I’d have a hard time putting EBJ any lower than 8th. Nothing against the guys immediately ahead of him, but Boeve is going to have to hit & hit well considering the limitations of the rest of his profile. His bat might have a higher floor than EBJ’s, but the rest of the profile just doesn’t compare. Pratt is going to be two whole levels behind EBJ to open 2024 and there is just so much volatility with teenage prospects it’s hard for me to put him ahead of EBJ, who has a more stable profile with success already at A+. Lara has the best case with his success as an 18 year old legit CF in A ball already, but I’d still give the slight edge to EBJ since he’s a little farther up ladder and has better physicality with Lara not really having a frame that projects huge growth in that department.
  19. sveumrules
    Yeah, for as seemingly extra random as this postseason has been, the odds are favoring a rematch of last Fall Classic with HOU (33.8% WS odds at FanGraphs) and PHI (32.0%) favored over TEX (17.7%) and ARI (16.5%) entering the LCS. At the same time, a rematch of last year would be a pretty extra random outcome in and of itself since the same two teams haven’t met in consecutive World Series since 1977/78.
  20. sveumrules
    Kevin Pillar, Eddie Rosario and Vaughn Grissom make the last three outs for the Braves historically great offense.
  21. sveumrules
    Yelich came in at 4.1 fWAR in 2023. Throw some quick and dirty age curve on there and let’s say he comes in at 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, 1.0 and that’s about 12 WAR projected over the 5/$136.5M he has left at this point. At around $10M per WAR (average 2023 rate of production for players in his salary range) the raw negative value on his deal would be under $20M with a 12 WAR projection. BTV says negative 40 million, so not too far off, nudge the projection or the dollar/WAR some in whatever direction and you are essentially there. They probably give his trade value a negative hit for the NTC too. This is probably the closest Yelich’s deal has been to the break even point since he signed it, but I still think the obstacles are a few too many for there to be a realistic chance of him getting dealt this winter.
  22. sveumrules
    He was pinch hitting for Miguel Rojas, 69 wRC+ this year (52 wRC+ vs RHP). Wong stunk most of the season, but at least put up a 130 wRC+ in his 34 PA once joining the Dodgers, and had the platoon advantage for the AB since ARI had just brought in the righty. ZiPS (94 to 79) and Steamer (94 to 86) both favor Wong by wRC+ projection at this point, so Roberts was trying to get his team a marginal edge there. But yeah, even at $240M the Dodgers have to rely on some sketchy options at the back end after the top six, seven guys.
  23. sveumrules
    They mentioned during the game that the Braves scoreless streak to open the postseason was the longest for a 100 Win team since the 1986 Mets…things turned out okay for them.
  24. sveumrules
    This was his pre-season report from FanGraphs, where they gave him a 35+ FV… The soft-tossing Seminaris, acquired from the Angels as part of the Hunter Renfroe trade, had a 2022 spike in walks after he was promoted to Double-A, which is totally uncharacteristic of what has historically been a command-first profile. The underlying pitch data suggests he’s still throwing plenty of strikes, so expect him to rebound in this area going forward. None of his repertoire is plus, but he mixes a ton of different pitches: 58% fastballs (a mix of four- and two-seamers), then 14% each slider, changeup, and curveball. The changeup has been evaluated as plus here in the past but it played more like an average pitch in 2022. He’s trending more like a sixth-to-eighth starter or bulk reliever, and will act as viable upper-level depth without occupying a 40-man spot in 2023.
  25. sveumrules
    This seems like another case where people might be attributing way too much meaning to a tiny sample of playoff games. Historically, playoff teams with 4 or more days rest are 24-11 when facing a team with 2 or fewer days rest. From 2015 through last year teams with 4 or more days rest had a 15 game winning streak when facing teams with 2 or fewer days rest.
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