sveumrules

BRef has phonetic pronunciations on some player pages, but nothing for Boeve. Maybe because he’s still in the minors? There was a Joe Boever that played in MLB from 1985-96, and BRef has that pronounced BAY-ver. Based on that, I would guess Boeve rhymes with forgave or could be substituted in Sonny & Cher’s hit “I’ve Got You Boeve”.

Those are two rather large assumptions stated as future certainties. The lowest attendance in MP/AmFam history was 1.7M back in 2003, 21K per game twenty years ago. With a capacity of 41,900 attendance would essentially have to slice that 2003 number in half to to 10.5K per game to hit 3/4 empty. The only two games under 20K this year were the Tuesday/Wednesday after Opening Day. I’ll take the over.

Entering today it’s the Phillies at 137 wRC+. Brewers hit 309/385/382 (114 wRC+).

During their draft summers... Brown hit 308/471/539 (17 PA) in the ACL Boeve hit 500/556/1000 (36 PA) in the ACL Brown hit 262/370/441 (100 PA) at CAR Boeve hit 250/333/333 (84 PA) at WIS Boeve hasn't had a crack at his first full season yet, but Brown hit... Slow Start A+: 12 G | 54 PA | 102/185/102 Figured It Out A+: 36 G | 162 PA | 326/426/437 INJURED Return from Injury/Promoted to AA A+/AA: 20 G | 79 PA | 235/329/309 Currently in Fall League AZL: 8 G | 35 PA | 314/400/457 So we've seen Brown hit for 17 PA in the ACL, 100 PA at CAR, 162 PA at WIS and now 35 PA in the AZL versus only seeing Boeve hit for 36 PA in the ACL. I hope that Boeve turns out like Black too, but that's putting a lot of faith into those 36 PAs as a man among boys on the complex. Brown has a performance record well beyond that level already while being worlds better on the bases and in the field.

Because Hiura was also injured from May 13th until June 16th. Winker didn’t hit the IL until May 27th. Ruf got hurt June 2nd. When Hiura did return he didn’t have the same pop with only 114 wRC+ from June 16 through July 31 compared to a 157 wRC+ before getting hurt. By the time Rowdy went on the IL they had already traded for Santana and Canha to fill 1B/DH down the stretch.

MLBTR projected $11.6M, would guess he signs something like 2/25. $5M this year to rehab, and then $20M (right around the same as the QO) for 2025.

I think all he's saying is that the Brewers (5 runs in 2 games), scored more runs per game this postseason than the Dodgers (6 runs in 3 games) or Braves (8 runs in 4 games). Nowhere did he say he was content with anything. I think it makes plenty of sense to post the comment. It is another data point to show how truly random outcomes can occur over such small samples even to the very best teams in the game. Context is important. If anyone said coming into the postseason that the Brewers offense would score more runs per game than the Braves or Dodgers they would have been openly mocked, and rightly so. But it still happened anyway...because the postseason is largely random.

I don't think he's a surefire no doubt MLB shortstop at this point, but after what he showed this year (when healthy) I think the odds are better now that he sticks at SS than they were when he was originally drafted. If not, he should be easily plus at 2B.

Tight voting definitely captures the thin margins separating the three top candidates. I probably would have voted for Williams #1 since he was the most consistent all year finishing up with +4.09 WPA and 2.9 rWAR as the top dog in what ended up being the best bullpen in MLB by both WPA (+11.73) and rWAR (8.6). On strict performance I probably would have had Burnes #2 because while the peripherals were similar (matching 87 FIP- marks for both Corbin & Freddy), Burnes did throw those extra 28 innings with better run prevention. Freddy would be #3 for me, but I can see how he came out on top since his performance exceeded expectations whereas Devin more or less met expectations and Corbin probably ended up short of where most hoped he would.

Can’t quibble too much considering I forgot to vote and it’s only a couple two tree spots, but I’d have a hard time putting EBJ any lower than 8th. Nothing against the guys immediately ahead of him, but Boeve is going to have to hit & hit well considering the limitations of the rest of his profile. His bat might have a higher floor than EBJ’s, but the rest of the profile just doesn’t compare. Pratt is going to be two whole levels behind EBJ to open 2024 and there is just so much volatility with teenage prospects it’s hard for me to put him ahead of EBJ, who has a more stable profile with success already at A+. Lara has the best case with his success as an 18 year old legit CF in A ball already, but I’d still give the slight edge to EBJ since he’s a little farther up ladder and has better physicality with Lara not really having a frame that projects huge growth in that department.

Yeah, for as seemingly extra random as this postseason has been, the odds are favoring a rematch of last Fall Classic with HOU (33.8% WS odds at FanGraphs) and PHI (32.0%) favored over TEX (17.7%) and ARI (16.5%) entering the LCS. At the same time, a rematch of last year would be a pretty extra random outcome in and of itself since the same two teams haven’t met in consecutive World Series since 1977/78.

Kevin Pillar, Eddie Rosario and Vaughn Grissom make the last three outs for the Braves historically great offense.

Yelich came in at 4.1 fWAR in 2023. Throw some quick and dirty age curve on there and let’s say he comes in at 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, 1.0 and that’s about 12 WAR projected over the 5/$136.5M he has left at this point. At around $10M per WAR (average 2023 rate of production for players in his salary range) the raw negative value on his deal would be under $20M with a 12 WAR projection. BTV says negative 40 million, so not too far off, nudge the projection or the dollar/WAR some in whatever direction and you are essentially there. They probably give his trade value a negative hit for the NTC too. This is probably the closest Yelich’s deal has been to the break even point since he signed it, but I still think the obstacles are a few too many for there to be a realistic chance of him getting dealt this winter.

He was pinch hitting for Miguel Rojas, 69 wRC+ this year (52 wRC+ vs RHP). Wong stunk most of the season, but at least put up a 130 wRC+ in his 34 PA once joining the Dodgers, and had the platoon advantage for the AB since ARI had just brought in the righty. ZiPS (94 to 79) and Steamer (94 to 86) both favor Wong by wRC+ projection at this point, so Roberts was trying to get his team a marginal edge there. But yeah, even at $240M the Dodgers have to rely on some sketchy options at the back end after the top six, seven guys.

They mentioned during the game that the Braves scoreless streak to open the postseason was the longest for a 100 Win team since the 1986 Mets…things turned out okay for them.

This was his pre-season report from FanGraphs, where they gave him a 35+ FV… The soft-tossing Seminaris, acquired from the Angels as part of the Hunter Renfroe trade, had a 2022 spike in walks after he was promoted to Double-A, which is totally uncharacteristic of what has historically been a command-first profile. The underlying pitch data suggests he’s still throwing plenty of strikes, so expect him to rebound in this area going forward. None of his repertoire is plus, but he mixes a ton of different pitches: 58% fastballs (a mix of four- and two-seamers), then 14% each slider, changeup, and curveball. The changeup has been evaluated as plus here in the past but it played more like an average pitch in 2022. He’s trending more like a sixth-to-eighth starter or bulk reliever, and will act as viable upper-level depth without occupying a 40-man spot in 2023.

This seems like another case where people might be attributing way too much meaning to a tiny sample of playoff games. Historically, playoff teams with 4 or more days rest are 24-11 when facing a team with 2 or fewer days rest. From 2015 through last year teams with 4 or more days rest had a 15 game winning streak when facing teams with 2 or fewer days rest.

Counting Game 163 the Brewers were 7-3 in their first ten postseason games back in 2018. Obviously the predictive power of that ten game sample has turned out to be nil. I’d likewise hope this most recent ten game sample (spread out over five years) has minimal influence over potential future playoff results. At the same time, in a macro sense we are pretty close organizationally to the Twins within the economics & geography of MLB, and they lost 18 straight playoff games over almost 20 years before starting off this particular postseason 3-1.

Age (33) and injury concerns (career high is 359 PA in a season) will probably limit his deal, but he can definitely rake with a 138 wRC+ over 344 PA this year and a 130 wRC+ over 1,242 PA going back to 2019. Maybe he gets something like 2 years for $25M? MLBTR article about him today noted he only caught 25 games over the last four months after returning from injury, but he could be primary DH/backup C to open the season then slide into more of a DH only role once Quero is ready. Only has 51 career MLB innings at 1B, but would imagine he’d be fine out there once a week or so if needed.

Pretty big odds shift with ARI and PHI winning the first games of their series. Fangraphs now has the NL teams World Series odds at 18.5% (ATL and PHI) then 9.1% for ARI and 9.0% for LAD.

How did I think wrong? I repeated your exact timeline. You said you expect it to happen, an expectation implies a much higher degree of certainty than mere speculation. I’m not offended in the least. Just a curious party on an internet message board.

MLB Trade Rumors dropped their projected arbitration salaries for 2024, with the dozen eligible Brewers coming in at… Brandon Woodruff: $11.6MM Willy Adames: $12.4MM Corbin Burnes: $15.1MM Adrian Houser: $5.6MM Rowdy Tellez: $5.9MM Eric Lauer: $5.2MM Hoby Milner: $1.7MM Devin Williams: $6.5MM Tyrone Taylor: $1.7MM Bryse Wilson: $1.3MM Joel Payamps: $1.7MM Abraham Toro: $1.3MM Would imagine that Rowdy, Lauer & Toro will be non-tendered at those numbers.

I thought your expectation for a sale was Spring 2025, maybe Feb 2024 at the earliest? Or has the timeline moved up now?

Hoskins is about as consistent as it gets. 127 wRC+ in 2021, 122 wRC+ in 2022, 126 wRC+ for his career. Brandon Belt was heavily platooned with 365 of his 404 PA coming vs RHP, but he posted a 138 wRC+ on the season. He was also primarily a DH (only 28 starts at 1B) and will be going into his age 36 season. Was paid $9.3M last year, so will probably want a raise on another one year deal. Scanning the wRC+ leaderboard for 2023 (minimum 250 PA) I see a Matt Wallner on the Twins with a 144 wRC+. What's the scoop on him @Brock Beauchamp? Looks like he has raked throughout his minor league career, but will never provide any defensive value and is likely a platoon only bat. Who knows what Colorado is ever doing, could try to pry Nolan Jones (135 wRC+ in 424 PA) loose. Rays love to deal and could probably stand to move one of Harold Ramirez (128 wRC+ in 434 PA), Luke Raley (130 wRC+ in 406 PA) or Josh Lowe (131 wRC+ in 501 PA). Ramirez and Raley don't really have any defensive value, but Lowe put up decent defensive numbers in RF this year. Luis Robert (128 wRC+ in 595 PA) could be the biggest name on the trade market, while Eloy ended up with only a 105 wRC+ over 489 PA so not sure he qualifies as a power bat at this point. If the Yankees want to shake it up maybe Gleyber Torres (123 wRC+ over 672 PA) could be had via trade? As far as the get a power prospect for Burnes route guys like Curtis Mead (TBR) or Coby Mayo (BAL) are probably a little too ambitious of asks. Maybe somebody like Colt Keith (DET) or Brady House (WAS) could be in play if the Tigers/Nationals want to try to kickstart the rebuild? Dodgers would probably part with Andy Pages, but he wouldn't be ready from the jump (if at all) in 2024.

Postseason field is set, so here are the World Series Odds for each team from FanGraphs & BPro... FG: ATL (28.6%) | HOU (16.8%) | LAD (12.9%) | TBR (7.1%) | PHI (6.8%) | BAL (5.2%) | MIL (5.0%) | TOR (5.0%) | MIN (4.5%) | TEX (3.8%) | ARI (2.8%) | MIA (1.4%) BPro: ATL (18.2%) | HOU (16.2%) | LAD (15.9%) | BAL (15.9%) | MIN (6.2%) | MIL (5.3%) | TBR (4.8%) | MIA (4.3%) | PHI (4.2%) | TOR (4.1%) | ARI (2.7%) | TEX (2.2%) Some interesting divergences between the two systems. Both have ATL favored, though FG has their odds 10.4% higher. FG seems to like the NL more in general with a 57.5% to 42.5% split, though most of that difference is accounted for by ATL. Other biggest split is BAL (5.2% vs 15.9%).