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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Anderson’s OPS was at .766 over 210 PA thru May 31st. He then put up a .568 OPS over his next 124 PA before going on the IL and has followed that up with a .441 OPS in a scant 21 PA since returning. He stopped hitting and Monasterio took advantage of the opportunity.
  2. sveumrules
    2019 team was missing Yelich and needed to beat a superior Nats team on the road to even get into the NLDS, FanGraphs had them with 0.9% WS Odds before almost stealing that wild card game from the eventual Champs. Either way, even with this offense, we’ve been watching at worst something like the 6th/7th best team in the franchise’s 50+ year history. I’ve enjoyed the ride and look forward to the currently unknown details of exactly how it ends, even with the overwhelming likelihood that’s it’s just another 2023 NL Central Champs or 2023 Wild Card banner painted on the stadium wall.
  3. sveumrules
    Right, I addressed that twice. “one of the weakest offenses among playoff hopefuls” and “the odds are overwhelming that the Brewers offense will likely keep them out of the World Series”. For most of your life only two teams in each league made the playoffs to begin with, so that’s irrelevant to the current format. Last year the #6 seed, a team that won one more regular season than the Brewers, represented the NL in the WS. In 2021 the Braves had the 5th most wins in the NL as the #3 seed, in 2019 the Nationals were a #4 seed with the 3rd most wins in the NL. Recent history tells us the being something like the 4th best team in the league’s playoff field doesn’t preclude a club from bucking the odds that are stacked against them.
  4. sveumrules
    The current World Series Odds for NL teams at FanGraphs are... ATL (30.4%) LAD (12.2%) PHI (5.7%) MIL (4.3%) CHI (2.2%) ARI (1.2%) SFG (1.1%) MIA (0.8%) The combination of the Brewers having one of the weakest offenses among playoff hopefuls, but also one of the best run prevention units makes them something like the 4th best team in the NL at the moment in the eyes of the computers. On today's date in 2022 the Phillies had 4% World Series odds. On today's date in 2021 the Braves had 6.7% World Series odds. On today's date in 2019 the Nationals were at 5.6% playoff odds. The Dodgers were the NL World Series favorites on today's date in each of the last three full seasons (17.3% on 9/11/2019 and 20.0% on 9/11/2021 and 17.6% on 9/11/2022) and didn't make it out of the NL in any of those seasons. The computers think this year's Braves are currently much better positioned than the Dodgers were in any of those three most recent full seasons, so maybe they break the streak of NL underdogs this year. But yes, the odds are overwhelming that the Brewers offense will likely keep them out of the World Series, just like ten of the other playoff teams will fall short of the WS for some reason or another. Whichever way it shakes out, it beats being one of the 18 teams with 0.0% World Series odds after game 162.
  5. sveumrules
    Sure, they’ve lost some games recently, but even after today only five teams in MLB have fewer bullpen losses than the Brewers. Their +7.76 Win Probability Added was tops in MLB entering today. Of course Williams (+3.15 WPA) is the head of the dragon, but Payamps (+3.03), Wilson (+1.20), Milner (+1.16), Peguero (+0.96), Uribe (+0.63) and Megill (+0.26) have all made positive contributions out of the pen. Thats seven guys the Brewers either developed as prospects (Williams, Uribe) or from nondescript-ness (Payamps, Wilson, Milner, Peguero, Megill) into positive contributors to what has been one of MLBs top bullpens all season long. Rea also kept us in some games as an unheralded pickup and they even eked out a half dozen quality starts from a washed Teheran. Even a vet like Miley re-discovered his success here to begin with and is putting up another quality season in his return.
  6. sveumrules
    QUAY DAY
  7. sveumrules
    The pitching has benefited greatly - 3.94 ERA vs 4.32 FIP - due to the Brewers defense, +50 DRS (2nd). Those “terrible” hitters have been closer to average for most of the season while providing elite glove work. It’s a symbiotic relationship.
  8. sveumrules
    Because the season as a whole numbers are dragged down by a bunch of players who are no longer receiving plate appearances. Since June 16, so almost three months now, the Brewers have been running a 94 wRC+ while going 45-29 over that stretch. No great shakes, but also a large improvement over the 78 wRC+ they posted from 0420 to 0615 after the 14-5 start (where they posted a 102 wRC+).
  9. sveumrules
    Welcome to the board, perfect game thread to join in on!!
  10. sveumrules
    Andrews strands both runners to keep the score 10-7 Nashville heading to bottom of the eighth.
  11. sveumrules
    Fernando having Abad outing top of eight. Six up, none down. Grand slam followed by a single and walk and now Clayton Andrews is on to try to shut things down still no outs.
  12. sveumrules
    Zamora walk (pick off error), Rodriguez walk and a Murray triple plates two more for the Shuckers top of second. And Isaac Collins adds a sac fly to increase the lead to 4-0.
  13. sveumrules
    Lead off bomb from Isaac Collins has Biloxi on the board right off the bat.
  14. sveumrules
    VanMeter? More like VanCountryMile.
  15. sveumrules
    Wiemer couldn’t have done that if he was in Nashville.
  16. sveumrules
    Nice bounce back inning for Julio in the fourth as he goes one two three via ground, strike and line outs.
  17. sveumrules
    And Cam gets the job done, two RBI single to tie things up. Still only one out with Dorrian due up next.
  18. sveumrules
    Teheran had a pretty uneventful first couple innings, a walk and a passed ball was it. Third inning has gone BB, 1B, HBP (ground out) 1B, 1B (OF assist) (ground out) and Nashville trails 3-0 bottom of three. Roller and Toro have each walked as Black steps to the plate one down. And Tyler doubles home the first Nashville run. Now 2nd/3rd with Devanney digging in.
  19. sveumrules
    Wisco holds on for the 8-5 victory with Miguel Guerrero (2.1 IP) and Nick Merkel (1.0 IP) closing it out with scoreless appearances, each striking out a pair and allowing one hit. Carolina fulfilling the third leg of the old “sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains” adage.
  20. sveumrules
    Feed was a little low from Adames, but looked to me like Turang was trying to be a little too quick and never got a firm grip on the throw to first.
  21. sveumrules
    Top three Rattlers in the order are 0-9, three walks though. Bottom six providing the Timber at 10-15 with three walks and seven of the eight runs scored/batted in.
  22. sveumrules
    That would be 11 days since Nightengale said “within a week”…another case for the Nightengaled Files
  23. sveumrules
    & they got almost nine WAR for that $210M, so only like $24M per win.
  24. sveumrules
    Pretty crazy that the Cubs were hot (13-5 in their last 18) coming into their series against the cold DBacks (3-7 in their last 10), yet Chicago’s still lost the first three games scoring a total of four runs. It’s almost enough to make me believe baseball is gonna baseball and trying to extrapolate small samples of hotness or coldness is of limited utility since the switch can flip at any time with little forewarning.
  25. sveumrules
    I was responding to your statement that Counsell hasn’t made a good decision in awhile. Thats why I asked how long is awhile and then provided the teams record over the last couple months where they’ve been among the half dozen best teams in MLB.
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