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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Mitchell before getting hurt. Wiemer. Hiura before getting figured out. Turang. Frelick, Black getting closer.
  2. sveumrules
    If they don’t think Joe Whitman will make it to #33, snagging him at #18 would probably open up money for later rounds
  3. sveumrules
    From 2012-16 Lucroy put up a 120 wRC+ and 55.8 batting runs, both of which were second only to Buster among catchers during that time. If Braun is the standard, he had 47 career WAR. Here are first round hitters drafted since 2006 to come close to or exceed that total… 2006: Longoria (drafted 3rd, MIL #16) 2007: Donaldson (drafted 48th, MIL took LaPorta #7) 2008: Buster (drafted 5th, MIL #16) 2009: Trout (drafted 25th, MIL #26) 2010: Machado/Harper (drafted 3/1, MIL #14) 2011: Lindor (drafted 8th, MIL #12) 2012: Correa (drafted 1st, MIL #28) 2013: Judge (drafted 32nd, MIL no 1st round pick) So only nine teams have drafted a Braun quality hitter in the first round since 2006 and eight of those were off the board before the Brewers picked.
  4. sveumrules
    Pretty crazy that with the current state of the farm whoever we pick at #18 likely won’t slot in higher than 9th/10th on the org list. There were plenty of years in the not too distant past where whoever we took with our first pick was pretty much guaranteed a top 3 spot on the org list.
  5. sveumrules
    Over at MLB Pipeline they’ve got us mocked for EBJ2 (Callis) or Hurston Waldrep (Mayo) for #18.
  6. sveumrules
    If a player provides no defensive value, the bat has to carry the whole profile. Recent “can’t miss” bat first picks like Alec Bohm (#3 overall in 2018, 1534 PA of 99 OPS+, 0.7 career WAR), Andrew Vaughn (#3 overall in 2019, 1392 PA of 103 OPS+, 0.5 career WAR) or Spencer Torkleson (#1 overall in 2020, 771 PA of 85 OPS+, -1.2 career WAR) are the highest profile recent examples of how big of an ask that is. Hiura was supposed to be the safest bat in his draft class (and hey, his 1.5 WAR is still the highest of any 2017 1st round hitter), but with no position to play and streaky offense it’s hard to stay in the lineup (or MLB) to get consistent playing time.
  7. sveumrules
    I’m honestly happy for Reds fans. They haven’t been to the playoffs after a full season since 2013, and that was a one & done Wild Card. Their only winning full season since then was going 83-79 for their “all-in” 2019. From 2014-22 only the Tigers and Marlins won fewer games in all of MLB. They’ve been bad for a long time, they should be stocked with young talent and starting to finally come out of it. Brewers fans have been living the high life by comparison, from 2017 through today they have won the 7th most games in MLB. But that 2018 NLCS was a long time ago, and the 2021 NLDS offense has returned for the 2023 regular season. Stearns & Hader are gone, Woody is hurt, Peralta, Burnes & Adames are underperforming to varying degrees, some think Counsell has one foot out the door. It’s definitely looking like twilight for this (still pretty young) old core, but Milwaukee is the kind of town where the fun really starts happening when the sun goes down, so maybe they can still brew up one last batch of Oktoberfest.
  8. sveumrules
    With the next six against the Reds, thought it might be interesting to see how the projections move around before & after. So here are current NL Central division odds… FanGraphs MIL: 48.8% CIN: 36.5% Five Thirty Eight MIL: 49% CIN: 20% Baseball Prospectus MIL: 59.4% CIN: 28.0%
  9. sveumrules
    Man, James Meeker just keeps putting up numbers. Since giving up 5 ER on June 3rd, he has made six appearances (the last three of them starts) throwing 19 IP with 22 K vs 2 BB and a 1.42 ERA. Gotta think he's Nashville bound sooner than later.
  10. sveumrules
    Yeah, by BaseRuns the Cubs should have our record and we should have theirs. Obviously there is a lot playing into each team over/under performing their indicators, but the biggest difference appears to be between the Brewers bullpen (+5.21 WPA, 1st) and the Cubs relievers (-2.21 WPA, 23rd).
  11. sveumrules
    With Woodruff, Ashby, Lauer, Uribe?, Gasser?, there is some intriguing depth of arms in house that could help post-deadline. Would definitely prefer to focus whatever resources on upgrade(s) to the offense.
  12. sveumrules
    Man, going from the good time vibes of the American Graffitis into American History X is a pretty stark contrast. Ed Norton is one of my favorite actors and that role is up there among his best. Also love Armageddon even though I’m not normally a huge action summer blockbuster fan. Just a stacked cast top to bottom. If you have Deep Impact you could break the alphabetical system and go for the “Asteroid Hurtling Towards Earth” double feature.
  13. sveumrules
    Yeah right now there are the Marlins (49 W), Phillies (44 W) and Dodgers, Giants, Reds & Brewers (all at 46 W) pretty bunched up together three four games apart in the standings. Automatic playoff teams like the Mets & Padres floundering, plus the various uncertainties of those six teams above definitely help the odds of the NL Central loser grabbing a Wild Card spot.
  14. sveumrules
    A combination of Bobby plus one of Pat/Grayson gets you to around $20M in salary. Some guards in that price range if they wanted to try and consolidate would be Collin Sexton, Norman Powell, Terry Rozier or Buddy Hield.
  15. sveumrules
    More information about "Matt Arnold Comments on Trade Deadline and Brewers Approach"
    Some deadline related quotes from Arnold today on MLB.com via Adam McCalvy… “Look, we want to be competitive here in 2023,” Arnold said. “We will be opportunistic to try and improve this team where we can, responsibly, I think we have a lot of good players here.” On the topic of maybe dealing Burnes or Adames… “We’re not looking to move any of those guys. They’re huge parts of our team right now… I mean, I’m sure we’ll get phone calls on these guys, because they’re very good. But that’s not something we’re considering.”
  16. sveumrules
    Some deadline related quotes from Arnold today on MLB.com via Adam McCalvy… “Look, we want to be competitive here in 2023,” Arnold said. “We will be opportunistic to try and improve this team where we can, responsibly, I think we have a lot of good players here.” On the topic of maybe dealing Burnes or Adames… “We’re not looking to move any of those guys. They’re huge parts of our team right now… I mean, I’m sure we’ll get phone calls on these guys, because they’re very good. But that’s not something we’re considering.” View full rumor
  17. sveumrules
    Gasser was walking the world to start the season but has reigned it in recently… First seven starts…38 IP | 47 K | 25 BB | 4.74 ERA Last six starts…36.1 IP | 40 K | 5 BB | 3.22 ERA
  18. sveumrules
    Looks like Freddy reverted back to a more traditional pitch mix for his start yesterday - 59 FB | 20 SL | 13 CU | 6 CH
  19. sveumrules
    Definitely going to be a pivotal offseason. Will Horst run back a team that won the most games in the NBA then laid an egg in the playoffs (but with a hurt Giannis and understandably distracted HC to a team on an epic heater they rode all the way to the finals) and hope changing the coaching staff and minor tweaks around the edges will suffice? Its the path of least resistance and would likely still have the Bucks among the top two tree teams in the East and top half dozen or so overall in terms of Championship odds for next year. Or do they get creative and try to package some combo of Pat, Bobby, Grayson for either more of a true PG or an athletic wing defender to join Jrue, Khris, Giannis, Brook in the starting five?
  20. sveumrules
    From my understanding the Bucks are capped out so their only options are to resign Middleton or to sign and trade him, otherwise they lose his salary slot.
  21. sveumrules
    Right, the Brewers can’t hit (87 wRC+ | 25th) while STL can (106 wRC+ | 11th). Now let’s do the rest of the team. Defense MIL: +34 DRS (3rd) STL: -22 DRS (27th) Starting Pitchers MIL: 5.9 rWAR (9th) STL: 2.6 rWAR (24th) Relief Pitchers MIL: +4.26 WPA (1st) STL: -2.76 WPA (27th)
  22. sveumrules
    He’s been working with the four pitch mix since 2021, so not sure if it was really the birth so much as maybe a tweaked version thereof. Here are his pitch percentages each of the last three years… FB: 53.1, 54.9, 53.3 SL: 26.4, 18.3, 20.8 CB: 10.9, 16.3, 14.0 CH: 9.7, 10.4, 11.9 Pretty consistent. Slider usage dropped off in 2022 in favor of more curves, while the change has been gradually thrown more. Here are the pitch values per 100 pitches over the last three years… FB: +1.40, +0.67, -0.21 SL: +1.14, +0.19, -0.86 CB: +2.43, +1.99, -0.35 CH: -0.90, +1.24, -0.61 Ouch. In 2021/22 he was positive on seven out of eight. This year all four pitches are getting negative results. Fastball, slider and curve all waaay down from 2021. I think the main thing is Freddy’s fastball losing effectiveness requires him to be more precise with his location, which has never been a strong suit. Here’s the resulting batted ball results over the last three years… BABIP: .230, .246, .286 HR/9: 0.87, 0.69, 1.65 Barrel%: 6.0, 3.5, 9,9 HardHit%: 27.7, 26.9, 31.6 Diminished stuff + poor command in the zone = nightmare batted ball profile.
  23. sveumrules
    Above is how the computers saw the division race back on May 8th. Five weeks later over 40% of the season is now in the books, and the Brewers are in the midst of their second six game losing streak of the season with current division leader Pittsburgh on tap. Here's how things have moved in the interim... BPro MIL: 85 W | 78% Div CHI: 77 W | 12% Div PIT: 75 W | 5% Div STL: 75 W | 4% Div CIN: 73 W | 2% Div 538 MIL: 82 W | 54% Div CHI: 77 W | 22% Div PIT: 76 W | 17% Div CIN: 76 W | 15% Div STL: 73 W | 8% Div FanGraphs MIL: 82 W | 47% Div PIT: 78 W | 18% Div CHI: 77 W | 15% Div STL: 77 W | 12% Div CIN: 76 W | 8% Div
  24. sveumrules
    Adames currently has a 78 wRC+, if he keeps not hitting like that I don’t think there will be a ton of demand. The Dodgers are the only contender who have gotten worse SS production than the Brewers to this point, so might be tough to get a bidding war going when SS isn’t a pressing need for the majority of contenders.
  25. sveumrules
    Greinke made a conscious decision to pitch to his FIP with Milwaukee, and specifically changed his approach to be more groundball heavy in an effort to limit home runs. Batted ball profiles… 2008-10 w/ KCR 100 LD%+ | 99 GB%+ | 101 FB%+ 2011-12 w/ MIL 108 LD%+ | 111 GB%+ | 81 FB%+ 2013-15 w/ LAD 103 LD%+ | 103 GB%+ | 93 FB%+ 2016-18 w/ARI 96 LD%+ | 103 GB%+ | 99 FB%+ His batted ball profile was much more evenly distributed both before and after his stint with Milwaukee. When you consider Brewers IF posted -29 DRS from 2011-12 vs +32 DRS for the OF, Greinke maybe outsmarted himself somewhat. He definitely had ace level peripherals with the Brewers, and was successful in his goal of putting up the best FIP he could, but it didn’t translate to ace level run prevention (in part because he was intentionally trying to induce grounders to a Yuni, Rickie, Prince infield) or IP totals (because he was running up his pitch counts trying to strike everybody out).
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