sveumrules

Obviously defensive metrics are hinky in the first place, but Outs Above Average is incompatible with my eyes. Since 2021 the Brewers are at +112 DRS (2nd) and +60.5 UZR (2nd), but OAA has them dead nuts even at zero (16th). OAA also has the Tigers at dead nuts even zero despite them being 125+ runs worse than the Brewers by both DRS (-28) and UZR (-65.4). Based on how much the Brewers front office have prioritized defense over the years since Stearns & company arrived, I’m guessing their internal metrics align more closely with DRS.

Since 2021 Nola has a 3.28 FIP, which is 14th among 85 pitchers with at least 300 IP. He pitch good. Among those same 85 pitchers, his 4.01 ERA ranks 54th. The 0.73 discrepancy between his FIP and ERA is the largest wrong way difference in the sample. The Phillies have posted -101 DRS since 2021, 2nd worst in MLB. I think we all know that defense matters, and is important, but Nola might be the most blatant example how vital it is, even for a really good pitcher. The Brewers +112 DRS is second best in MLB since 2021. Over that same time their 0.22 right way difference between their 3.96 FIP and 3.74 ERA is 4th best in MLB, tied with TB and bettered only by HOU, NYY and LAD. Pretty heady company.

Here are our top ten players by number of PAs with their wRC+ at the ASB last year… Yelich (108 wRC+), Tellez (110 wRC+), Cutch (98 wRC+), Adames (114 wRC+), Wong (97 wRC+), Urias (99 wRC+), Jace (113 wRC+), Renfroe (113 wRC+), Taylor (94 wRC+) and Omar (95 wRC+) Ten guys at or around league average. Hard to make meaningful gains there. Here are our top ten players this year by number of PAs with their ASB wRC+… Yelich (128 wRC+), Adames (91 wRC+), Anderson (90 wRC+), Wiemer (88 wRC+), Contreras (112 wRC+), Rowdy (79 wRC+), Miller (98 wRC+), Turang (55 wRC+), Winker (69 wRC+), Caratini (105 wRC+). There are a three easy spots to upgrade there compared to last year.

He threw 78 IP last year. Would guess they are shooting for around 100-110 this year. Currently at 51 IP this year with the Futures Game.

We have not picked anyone up because zero trades have been consummated across MLB to this point. Rarely see much action two weeks out from the deadline.

I think part of the reason he hasn’t even gotten the call to AAA is just the depth of 3B on the Nashville roster. Urias, Devanney, Toro, Dorrian, Alvarez before opting out. Think Brosseau is still down there too? Plus there isn’t really an obvious guy at Wisco deserving of the bump up to take his spot. I’d love it if they cut bait with Winker and gave just about anyone in the system the DH PAs instead, but think they’ll just ride things out to the deadline at this point before shaking things up.

Looks like Misio threw 78 IP last year between JC and Carolina. He’s at 51 IP this year if you count the Futures Game. Say 6-7 starts at AA is another 30-ish IP. Depending how that goes it could line him up for a late August call up with prolly 25 IP or so left before they’d want to shut him down for the season. Agree it’s a long shot between the pitchers we should have coming back and the deadline approaching, but throwing those last couple dozen IP of the season from the MLB bullpen could end up being better for his development than throwing them in the AA rotation.

In the 34 games since making this post the Brewers have posted a 94 wRC+ and 4.44 R/G, so the offense has been improving. Hopefully a couple two tree trade deadline acquisitions and get that arrow pointing up at an even steeper angle.

Tellez: 69 K / 288 PA = 24.0 K% Adames: 89 K / 362 PA = 24.6 K% Turang: 55 K / 230 PA = 23.9 K% Wiemer: 87 K / 313 PA = 27.8 K%

They’ll need to get the bats heated up again to have any hope with Greene/Lodolo injured currently and Abbott regressing to the mean as he approaches his previous professional high in IP. As for CES, maybe he starts out sizzling before going ice cold like EDLC… Elly De La Cruz first 71 PA: 179 wRC+ (26.8 K%) last 76 PA: 48 wRC+ (32.9 K%) …or maybe he starts out hot and mostly keeps it up like MM… Matt McLain first 124 PA: 133 wRC+ (26.6 K%) last 123 PA: 125 wRC+ (30.1 K%) …or maybe he even starts out slow before picking it up like fellow bat first/only prospect & Twins trade mate SS… Spencer Steer 2022: 108 PA | 76 wRC+ 2023: 386 PA | 120 wRC+

Rockies made zero trades last deadline and only one minor move at each of the 2021 and 2019 deadlines. Cron has hit decent since returning from injury, but it’s only 50 PAs of 113 wRC+ versus 148 PAs of 72 wRC+ before the injury. Add it all up and he’s at 84 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR on the year.

The negative dWAR is just the positional adjustment for playing DH. I can kinda see the logic for hand waving it away in Ohtani’s singular case since he’d probably be a gold glove RF if he didn’t have to DH in order to stay healthy enough to pitch every six days.

It’s fun hyperbole, but the Angels don’t have the capacity to absorb an entire farm system nor do the Brewers have the capacity to surrender one. The most recent similar trade was probably when the Dodgers traded for two months of Max Scherzer and eight months of Trea Turner in exchange for Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray who were both ranked around Top 50-75 entering 2021. Obviously Ohtani is a unique case, but considering he comes with six fewer months of team control than that package (and doesn’t play SS everyday), I’m not sure he will garner a significantly greater return if the Angels do decide to deal him.

March 30th availability is nowhere near comparable to trade deadline value. On March 30th, teams have ideas about how competitive they’ll be but no proof yet. Rosters are mostly set so you can slip some heavily flawed guys like Hiura or one of how so ever many fungible relief arms through without losing them. If you’ve been optioned multiple times, teams have gotten a pretty good look at you. You probably haven’t fulfilled some element of whatever promise got you forty manned in the first place. Guys like Frelick, Black, Gasser, Rodriguez still have far more perceived upside than back of the 40 man churn. Maybe they’ll never live up to it, but teams will give up more value for younger players with higher perceived upside and additional years of control than they will give up for older guys who already have middling MLB track records and ticking service clock.

Division Odds after going 5-1 in those six games vs Reds… FanGraphs MIL: 72.0% CIN: 16.2% Baseball Prospectus MIL: 77.2% CIN: 11.9%

FanGraphs uses a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS projections for each player along with manually curated depth charts for future playing time. This is what they have for the Brewers currently, for instance. From there you can click around and see other teams. This Jeff Sullivan article from before he got hired by the Rays does a good job of looking at how projections compare to actual standings and Pythagorean standings when it comes to predicting the second half. The whole thing is worth a read, but the TL/DR version is… If you want to know what’s going to happen in the second half, you need to understand it’s impossible to predict. But if you want to give yourself even a chance, you should place by far the most weight on the updated team projections. I know it’s tempting to believe in a team’s actual to-date results, but they don’t mean quite as much as you’d presume. The projections are able to keep a cooler head.

Enniel Cortez definitely putting up some pretty serious numbers so far. Think I’d have to put him at the top of my DSL pitcher intrigue list at the moment but plenty of contenders with Aneuris Rodriguez, Bryan Rivera, Eric Prado, Melvin Hernandez and Anthony Flores in the mix.

AL WEST HOUSTON ASTROS (Totals: 8 at 23.5 WAR) 2016: Jake Rogers (1.2) 2017: Chas McCormick (5.1), Josh Rojas (3.2), Jake Meyers (2.9), Corey Julks (1.0) 2018: Jeremy Pena (6.9), JP France (1.3) 2019: Hunter Brown (1.9) Notes: Traded Rogers to Tigers for Verlander. Traded Rojas to the Diamondbacks for Greinke. SEATTLE MARINERS (Totals: 6 at 19.8 WAR) 2016: Kyle Lewis (2.1) 2017: JP Sears (2.9) 2018: Logan Gilbert (5.5), Cal Raleigh (4.2), Penn Murfee (1.4) 2019: George Kirby (3.7) Notes: Drafted Adley Rutschman (7.4 WAR with Orioles but he did not sign). Traded Sears to Yankees for Nick Rumbelow (-0.4 WAR with Mariners) LOS ANGELES ANGELS (Totals: 5 at 14.2 WAR) 2016: Brandon Marsh (3.9) 2017: Griffin Canning (3.1) 2018: Kyle Bradish (2.3) 2020: Reid Detmers (3.0) 2022: Zach Neto (1.9) Notes: Traded Marsh to Phillies for Logan O'Hoppe (0.5 WAR with Angels). Traded Bradish to Orioles for Dylan Bundy (1.4 WAR with Angels) OAKLAND ATHLETICS (Totals: 2 at 12.7 WAR) 2016 Sean Murphy (11.6), AJ Puk (1.1) Notes: Traded Puk to Marlins for JJ Bleday (0.4 WAR with Athletics). Drafted Garrett Mitchell (1.5 WAR with Brewers but he did not sign). TEXAS RANGERS (Totals: 1 at 2.8 WAR) 2019: Josh Jung (2.8) Notes: One guy and two point eight WAR more than the Pirates.

AL EAST TORONTO BLUE JAYS (Totals: 6 at 34.1 WAR) 2016: Bo Bichette (16.3), Cavan Biggio (5.7), Zach Jackson (1.5) 2017: Ryan Noda (1.6), Riley Adams (1.0) 2019: Alex Manoah (8.0) Notes: Lost Jackson in Rule 5 to Athletics. Traded Noda to Dodgers for Ross Stripling (3.8 WAR with Blue Jays). Traded Adams to Nationals for Brad Hand (0.3 WAR with Blue Jays) TAMPA BAY RAYS (Totals: 6 at 32.4 WAR) 2016: Nathaniel Lowe (8.6), Jake Fraley (2.6), Josh Lowe (2.0) 2017: Taylor Walls (6.3) 2018: Shane McClanahan (8.8), Joe Ryan (4.4) Notes: Traded N. Lowe to Rangers for trio of teenagers. Traded Fraley to Mariners for Zunino (2.6 WAR with Rays). Drafted Hayden Wesneski (1.1 WAR with Cubs but he did not sign). Drafted Drew Rasmussen, did not sign due to injury, traded for him later. Traded Ryan for Nelson Cruz (0.4 WAR with Rays). BALTIMORE ORIOLES (Totals: 3 at 19.2 WAR) 2016: Austin Hays (8.8) 2019: Adley Rutschman (7.4), Gunnar Henderson (3.3) Notes: Three big hits, more on the way. Drafted Logan Allen (1.0 WAR with Guardians but he did not sign). NEW YORK YANKEES (Totals: 6 at 13.5 WAR) 2016: Taylor Widener (1.1) 2017: Garrett Whitlock (5.0), Trevor Stephan (2.6), Ron Marinaccio (1.6) 2019: Anthony Volpe (2.1), Hayden Wesneski (1.1) Notes: Widener dealt in three team deal for Brandon Drury (-0.3 WAR with Yankees). Lost Whitlock/Stephan in Rule 5 to Red Sox/Guardians. Drafted Andrew Abbott (2.0 WAR with Red but he did not sign). Traded Wesneski for Scott Effross (0.4 WAR with Yankees). BOSTON RED SOX (Totals: 3 at 11.5 WAR) 2016: Santiago Espinal (5.1) 2017: Tanner Houck (5.2) 2018: Jarren Duran (1.2) Notes: Traded Espinal to Blue Jays for WSMVP Steve Pearce. Drafted Trevor Stephan (2.6 WAR with Guardians but he did not sign).

AL CENTRAL CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (Totals: 12 at 45.0 WAR) 2016: Shane Bieber (17.0), Aaron Civale (4.6), Zach Plesac (3.6), Nolan Jones (1.4) 2017: James Karinchak (3.0), Eli Morgan (1.3), Kyle Nelson (1.1) 2018: Steve Kwan (7.2), Nick Sandlin (2.1) 2019: Will Brennan (1.5) 2020: Logan Allen (1.0) 2021: Tanner Bibee (1.2) Notes: Drafted Spencer Steer (1.6 WAR with Reds) and Spencer Strider (5.8 WAR with Braves), but they did not sign. KANSAS CITY ROYALS (Totals: 8 at 20.7 WAR) 2016: Nicky Lopez (5.2), Anthony Bender (1.7) 2018: Brady Singer (5.6), Kris Bubic (1.7), Kyle Isbel (1.4), Daniel Lynch (1.1) 2019: Bobby Witt (2.4), Vinnie Pasquantino (1.6) Notes: They've graduated some dudes, but haven't really made any notable trades or signings to augment things. Maybe the most on-an-island organization out there after the Rockies. MINNESOTA TWINS (Totals: 7 at 20.0 WAR) 2016: Tyler Wells (4.3), Akil Baddoo (2.6) 2017: Bailey Ober (5.1), Royce Lewis (1.1) 2018: Ryan Jeffers (3.4), Trevor Larnach (1.9) 2019: Spencer Steer (1.6) Notes: Traded Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to Reds for Tyler Mahle (0.5 WAR with Twins). Drafted Patrick Bailey (1.5 WAR with Giants but he did not sign). Lost Wells/Baddoo in Rule 5 to Orioles/Tigers. DETROIT TIGERS (Totals: 6 at 15.0 WAR) 2016: John Schreiber (3.1), Matt Manning (1.1) 2018: Tarik Skubal (3.5), Casey Mize (2.8) 2019: Riley Greene (3.4), Kerry Carpenter (1.1) Notes: Schreiber got 6K, Manning got 4M. Schreiber claimed on waivers by Red Sox. Drafted Keegan Thompson (2.2 WAR with Cubs but he did not sign). CHICAGO WHITE SOX (Totals: 5 at 8.9 WAR) 2016: Alex Call (1.4) 2017: Jake Burger (1.1) 2018: Nick Madrigal (3.3), Codi Heuer (1.4) 2020: Garrett Crochet (1.7) Notes: Traded Madrigal and Heuer for Craig Kimbrel (0.0 WAR with White Sox).

NL WEST LOS ANGELES DODGERS (Totals: 8 at 39.5 WAR) 2016: Will Smith (13.6), Tony Gonsolin (9.2), Gavin Lux (5.2), Dustin May (3.7), Dean Kremer (2.9), Luke Raley (1.7), Devin Smeltzer (1.1) 2017: Connor Wong (2.1) Notes: Also drafted Bailey Ober (5.1 WAR with Twins) and Graham Ashcraft (1.1 WAR with Reds) in 2016 but they did not sign. Kind of crazy the extent to which they murdered the draft in 2016 but pretty much crickets since. SAN DIEGO PADRES (Totals: 9 at 27.4 WAR) 2016: Cal Quantrill (5.8), David Bednar (4.8), Eric Lauer (3.8), Jack Suwinski (3.6), Joey Lucchesi (3.0) 2017: MacKenzie Gore (1.9) 2018: Steve Wilson (1.7), Dylan Coleman (1.4) 2019: CJ Abrams (1.4) Notes: Trade Central - Quantrill to Guardians, Bednar/Suwinski to Pirates, Lauer to Brewers, Gore/Abrams to Nationals, Coleman to Royals. Only Lucchesi on the list put up the majority of his value with the Padres. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (Totals: 8 at 25.2 WAR) 2017: Daulton Varsho (8.6), Jose Caballero (1.4) 2018: Jake McCarthy (3.2), Alek Thomas (2.2), Tyler Horton (1.7) 2019: Corbin Carroll (5.0), Drey Jameson (2.0), Tommy Henry (1.1) Notes: Drafted Tarik Skubal (3.5 WAR with Tigers) and Matt McLain (2.0 WAR with Reds), but they did not sign. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (Totals: 3 at 17.3 WAR) 2016: Bryan Reynolds (14.6) 2018: David Villar (1.2) 2020: Patrick Bailey (1.5) Notes: Reynolds traded to Pirates for Andrew McCutchen (1.6 WAR with Giants) COLORADO ROCKIES (Totals: 3 at 4.5 WAR) 2016: Bryan Baker (1.6) 2017: Lucas Gilbreath (1.5) 2018: Jake Bird (1.4) Notes: Three guys and four point five WAR more than the Pirates.

NL EAST ATLANTA BRAVES (Totals: 5 at 22.3 WAR) 2016: Ian Anderson (3.6) 2017: Kyle Wright (2.7) 2019: Michael Harris II (6.5) 2020: Spencer Strider (5.8), Bryce Elder (3.7) Notes: Drafted Reid Detmers (3.0 WAR with Angels but he did not sign) NEW YORK METS (Totals: 3 at 18.9 WAR) 2016: Pete Alonso (15.8), Justin Dunn (1.5) 2017: David Peterson (1.6) Notes: Drafted George Kirby (3.7 WAR with Mariners but he did not sign) MIAMI MARLINS (Totals: 5 at 12.3 WAR) 2016: Michael King (3.8), Braxton Garrett (3.0) 2017: Trevor Rogers (2.9) 2018: Nick Fortes (1.4), Alex Vesia (1.2) Notes: Michael King traded to Yankees for Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith (7.2 combined WAR for Marlins) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Totals: 4 at 10.4 WAR) 2016: Cole Irvin (3.0) 2017: Connor Brogdon (2.4), Adam Haseley (1.4) 2019: Bryson Stott (3.6) Notes: Brogdon got a 5K bonus, Haseley got a 5M bonus. Sold Irvin to the Athletics for cash. WASHINGTON NATIONALS (Totals: 3 at 9.1 WAR) 2016: Jesus Luzardo (4.5), Dane Dunning (3.6) 2017: Jake Cousins (1.0) Notes: Dunning traded with Lucas Giolito to White Sox for Adam Eaton. Luzardo traded with Blake Treinen to the Athletics for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. Cousins signed with Brewers as minor league FA.

NL CENTRAL ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (Totals: 8 at 54.5 WAR) 2016: Tommy Edman (15.8), Zac Gallen (15.3), Dylan Carlson (5.9), Dakota Hudson (3.6) 2018: Brendan Donovan (5.8), Lars Nootbar (4.3), Nolan Gorman (2.2) 2019: Andre Pallante (1.6) Notes: Gallen traded with Sandy Alcantara (17.4 WAR with Marlins) for Marcell Ozuna (4.6 WAR with Cardinals) offsets the devil magic somewhat. MILWAUKEE BREWERS (Totals: 5 at 21.2 WAR) 2016: Corbin Burnes (10.9) 2017: Keston Hiura (1.5) 2018: Drew Rasmussen (6.0) 2020: Garrett Mitchell (1.5), Joey Wiemer (1.3) Notes: Rasmussen traded for Willy Adames (9.6 WAR with Brewers) CINCINNATI REDS (Totals: 8 at 19.9 WAR) 2017: Hunter Greene (3.9), Stuart Fairchild (1.1) 2018: Jonathan India (4.6), Josiah Gray (2.6) 2019: Nick Lodolo (2.8), Graham Ashcraft (1.1) 2021: Matt McLain (2.0), Andrew Abbott (2.0) Notes: Gray traded to Dodgers with Homer Bailey and Jeter Downs for Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer and cash. Dodgers subsequently traded Gray to the Nationals with Keibert Ruiz for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. CHICAGO CUBS (Totals: 4 at 13.4 WAR) 2017: Keegan Thompson (2.2), Alex Lange (1.1), Brandon Hughes (1.0) 2018: Nico Hoerner (9.1) Notes: Brewers drafting Turang in front of Hoerner is probably a bigger whiff to this point than drafting Corey Ray at #5 in 2016 considering none of the names in consideration for that pick have really amounted to much and even if we had shocked the draftniks and taken Ray's Louisville teammate Will Smith (13.6 WAR with Dodgers) there is no guarantee we would have gotten the same result that the Dodgers development juggernaut have gotten out of him. PITTSBURGH PIRATES (Totals: 0 at 0 WAR) Notes: Drafted Nick Lodolo (2.8 WAR with Reds but he did not sign)

Draft time of year again and Arnold's first one in the big chair got me thinking now would be a good time to look back at how recent Brewers drafts stacked up under Stearns. I know the draft is more the scouting director's domain, but it's easier to split up this way and convenient timing. Only twelve players total are represented from the 2020 to 2022 drafts (Mitchell & Wiemer among that dozen), so this is more realistically a look at the 2016-19 drafts four to seven years down the road. These things take time. My methodology was pretty straight forward. I went through every team's draft from 2016 to 2022 on BRef and noted any player with 1.0 WAR or more who signed with that team. In the notes section below I tried to also make mention of players traded or who went unsigned or were scooped up in the Rule 5, etc. To break things up I'll make separate posts below for each division, but here are some tidbits I thought were interesting... - Only 160 players drafted from 2016-22 have cracked 1.0 WAR in their careers so far. - Seven years out from the 2016 draft and only nine players have accrued ten WAR or more with Shane Bieber leading the way at 17.0 WAR. The highest drafted of those nine players was Will Smith at #32 with the other eight going between picks #59 and #196. - Six years out from the 2017 draft and the leader in the clubhouse is Daulton Varsho at 8.6 WAR. Only five other 2017 draftees have even cracked 5.0 WAR. - 2018 is looking a little better with Nico Hoerner (9.1 WAR) leading the way and another seven guys already at five or more WAR with another five or so on pace to top 5.0 WAR by season's end. - 2019 has four draftees over 5.0 WAR with Adley Rutschman topping the list at 7.4 WAR so far.

Last 10 years? Hardly anyone from the 2020-22 drafts have made MLB so that will skew the percentages for everyone. A large percentage of players that make MLB contribute negative WAR as replacement players, AAAA depth, cups of coffee, whatever you want to call it, so using % is also of limited utility. The Brewers might rank low by this methodology, but since 2017 they’ve won the 7th most games in MLB so they must be doing something right when it comes to drafting, developing and trading prospects for established players & vice versa. It certainly wasn’t via free agent spending. The Pirates are 6th on this list but they’ve won the 24th most games over the last ten years.