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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Burnes couldn't replicate it either. 20/21: 226 IP | 55 ERA- | 40 FIP- | 9.7 rWAR | 9.9 fWAR 2022: 202 IP | 73 ERA- | 79 FIP- | 5.3 rWAR | 4.6 fWAR
  2. sveumrules
    The numbers jump around considerably year to year because every season sees a different array of players with a different array of results. The ball changing year to year (and even within any given year) plays a large roll too. League average OPS has jumped around pretty considerably over the same time frame from 711 (in 2014) to 733 to 750 to 762 to 740 to 769 to 739 to 706 (in 2022), so components thereof doing the same, especially when isolated to a tiny sample of only 81 games at one stadium isn't really that out of the ordinary. This is the methodology quoted on the StatCast page... "Statcast park effects show the observed effect of each displayed stat based on the events in the selected park. Each number is set so that “100” is average for that metric, and the park-specific number is generated by looking at each batter and pitcher, controlled by handedness, and comparing the frequency of that metric in the selected park compared to the performance of those players in other parks." Here is the full array of single season data for AmFam going back to 2002. If you click over to "Three Year Rolling: Yes" it smooths out the results considerably as they encompass more data.
  3. sveumrules
    Something to keep in mind about batting average is that AmFam is one of the hardest stadiums to hit singles in, last playing above average for singles in 2014. Here are AmFam’s individual season StatCast Park Factors for singles… 2022: 87 (30th) 2021: 97 (20th) 2019: 91 (29th) 2018: 95 (23rd) 2017: 98 (18th) 2016: 91 (28th) 2015: 94 (23rd) 2014: 102 (8th) Meanwhile, here are individual season HR ratings at AmFam over that same time frame… 2022: 117 (9th) 2021: 103 (12th) 2019: 105 (11th) 2018: 108 (11th) 2017: 109 (11th) 2016: 113 (10th) 2015: 134 (2nd) 2014: 119 (6th) I like that the FO has appeared to trend increasingly towards more contact oriented hitters recently, but it might end up being a suboptimal strategy at AmFam.
  4. sveumrules
    By career numbers. Burnes isn’t a slam dunk over even Woodruff right now… Sheets: 1428 IP | 87 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 26.7 rWAR | 31.9 fWAR Higuera: 1380 IP | 86 ERA- | 85 FIP- | 27.4 rWAR | 26.7 fWAR Burnes: 515 IP | 76 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 12.8 rWAR | 14.3 fWAR Woody: 613 IP | 75 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 16.3 rWAR | 14.6 fWAR On a per inning basis, sure Corbin is the best, but his quantity is just too far behind Sheets/Higuera for me to put him in the #1 spot. Even by peak season I’m not sure he comes out ahead of Higuera or Sheets… 86 Higuera: 248 IP | 66 ERA- | 83 FIP- | 7.9 rWAR | 5.1 fWAR 04 Sheets: 237 IP | 62 ERA- | 59 FIP- | 7.0 rWAR | 8.0 fWAR 21 Burnes: 167 IP | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- | 6.3 rWAR | 7.5 fWAR
  5. sveumrules
    87-88 win projection feel about right to me. More goes right than wrong, that’s mid-90’s in wins and a good bet to win the division or a WC. More goes wrong than right, they’ll likely end up closer to .500 & maybe even sell at the deadline. Pretty much gonna come down to health of key players, how the various rookies perform and how the bullpen shakes out after Devin.
  6. sveumrules
    Raw OPS does not adjust for park factors. It is harder to hit in Seattle than it is in Milwaukee, that is why Winker comes out ahead of Cutch in both OPS+ and wRC+ despite Andrew having a .012 edge in raw OPS. The main reason McCutchen has the edge in WAR is because he posted +4 fielding runs in his limited OF time, 434 innings. The Mariners for some reason decided to play Winker in the field for 972 innings last year where he posted -16 fielding runs. Assuming the Brewers play Winker minimally on the grass it will be a notable boost to his WAR.
  7. sveumrules
    They’ve definitely lost a quantity of relievers, but what about their quality? Suter (66 IP | 93 ERA- | +0.38 WPA) Bxbrgr (64 IP | 73 ERA- | +1.04 WPA) Gott (45 IP | 102 ERA- | -0.65 WPA) Hader (34 IP | 105 ERA- | +0.76 WPA) Gustave (28 IP | 95 ERA- | -0.29 WPA) Perdomo (23 IP | 94 ERA- | +0.37 WPA) Rogers (23 IP | 135 ERA- | -1.02 WPA) Kelley (23 IP | 150 ERA- | -0.57 WPA) Thats 308 IP that (outside of Boxberger) was mediocre to bad with a net Win Probability Added of essentially zero.
  8. sveumrules
    Brewers ended up 10th in runs scored (725) last year. Padres (705 | 13th), Guardians (698 | 15th), Mariners (690 | 18th) and Rays (666 | 21st) all made the playoffs scoring fewer runs. Even the vaunted Phillies with big money bats like Harper, Schwarber, Castellanos and JTR only scored 22 more runs (747 | 8th) than the Brewers last year. The Brewers offense may have been regularly consistent and often anemic, but multiple teams made the playoffs with offenses that were more irregular and anemic. All twelve playoff teams surrendered fewer than the Brewers 688 R (16th).
  9. sveumrules
    Obviously just a one year sample, but the Brewers went 42-34 against the NLC last year at 9-10 (STL, CHC), 11-8 (PIT) and 13-6 (CIN). Beat up on the PIT and CHC like they should have and there are the two wins that would have gotten them into the playoffs instead of PHI. Giants went 33-43 against the NLW at 4-15 (LAD), 6-13 (SDP), 9-10 (ARI) and 14-5 (COL). Only playing 52 games each instead of 76 against those respective slates of opponents will have an impact.
  10. sveumrules
    One possibility is maybe the evened out schedule? Brewers will have fewer games against the Reds, Pirates and to a lesser extent Cubs. Giants will have fewer games against the Padres and Dodgers.
  11. sveumrules
    The last time a league's playoff field repeated was the AL in 1998/99 when NYY, BOS, CLE and TEX took all four postseason spots in consecutive years. Even during the post-Expansion/pre-Wild Card era (1969-93) there were only five repeat league playoff fields and that was when you only needed two teams to achieve it. I'm not a mathmetologist, but the odds of all six of ATL, NYM, PHI, STL, LAD and SDP repeating as NL playoffs teams next year is probably quite a bit smaller than what it looks like on the surface or feels like in one's gut.
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, ended up 11th in wRC+, 10th in runs scored and 8th in position player WAR last year. Mariners, Guardians, Phillies, Padres and Rays all made the playoffs with lower position player WAR. Brewers pitchers ended up 14th in rWAR. Only Toronto made the postseason with lower rWAR from their pitchers. The offense was much closer to playoff calibre than the pitching was in 2022. So in a macro sense, to improve on 2022 this year we’ll need the pitching to bounce back closer to 2021 levels and hope the offense can hold serve or maybe improve slightly. Outgoing players (Renfroe, Wong, Omar, Cain, Jace, Cutch) accounted for about 8 WAR so we’ll need Winker, Contreras, Anderson and the various rookies to make that up. Something else I found kind of interesting was that Cain (-12.4), Omar (-10.0), Jace (-1.5) and Cutch (-1.2) combined for -25.1 batting runs in their 1,360 PAs, essentially canceling out the good that Renfroe (+14.5) and Wong (+9.6) provided in their 1,019 PAs.
  13. sveumrules
    That doesn’t mean they weren’t trying. The 2017 Giants won 67 games with the 5th highest OD payroll. In 2018 it was 73 wins on the 2nd highest OD payroll. In 2019 it was 77 wins on the 6th highest OD payroll. Looks to me like they were trying and failing. The Angels have had seven straight losing seasons with a Top 10 payroll, have they not been trying either? Were the Mets ($195M | 77 W) or Padres ($174M | 79 W) in 2021 or Red Sox ($206M | 78 W) in 2022 not trying because they finished under .500?
  14. sveumrules
    The Giants won an MLB best 107 games in 2021 and ran the 12th highest OD payroll for 2022 at $155M. They weren’t trying to compete?
  15. sveumrules
    Right, after making it through 2021 with a carefully managed workload, they took the kid gloves off for Corbin in 2022. Peralta has yet to make it through a full season, so he will continue to be on a carefully managed work load in an attempt to do so.
  16. sveumrules
    28 GS | 2594 pitches in 2021 = 92.6 pitches per start. Went over 100 in six total starts, three of which were in September. 33 GS | 3274 pitches in 2022 = 99.2 pitches per start. Was at 32 GS | 3234 pitches for 101 pitches per start before his last outing of 3 IP | 40 pitches to close the season. Threw 100 pitches or more 20 times.
  17. sveumrules
    The Brewers managed Burnes workload in 2021.
  18. sveumrules
    I went through the schedule a bit ago & with where the days off fall it looks like there’d be about 20 games that would require a sixth starter. Could line it up as a modified six man rotation hoping for something like (33 GS) Burnes & Woody (25 GS) Freddy, Lauer & Miley, which leaves 21 games for some combo of Houser/Ashby. Having Adrian/Aaron in the bullpen stretched out for multi inning work/spot starts would also add some nice depth to the relief corps.
  19. sveumrules
    That 7.4 BB% really kills him, though I included HBP too & he gets drilled a lot (34 HBP ranks 19th since 2019) so that bumped his TTO% up a bit.
  20. sveumrules
    Chris definitely gets a spot on the Brewers All Time Three True Outcomes Team... Ca: Grandal (44.5 TTO%) 1B: Carter (51.6 TTO%) 2B: Hiura (51.3 TTO%) 3B: Branyan (52.3 TTO%) SS: Hernandez (42.0 TTO%) LF: Thames (50.2 TTO%) CF: Gorman (42.5 TTO%) RF: Deer (48.5 TTO%) DH: Domingo (54.4 TTO%)
  21. sveumrules
    If there were some kind of shenanigans going on how come only Yelich saw his production skyrocket?
  22. sveumrules
    Yeah, that 510 PA with a 44 OPS+ In 1973 is about as low as it gets, but it was before my time. Schoop & Yuni are way more visceral for me.
  23. sveumrules
    Ca: Estrada 1B: Stubbs 2B: Schoop 3B: Helms SS: Yuni LF: Leonard CF: JBJ RF: Hammonds DH: Newfield UT: Sogard SP: Soup pitched great! CL: Gagne RP: Machado
  24. sveumrules
    Never used any of them myself, but Paulie’s, Mo’s in Tosa or Brewski’s look like they would be the easiest options coming down on 41.
  25. sveumrules
    No doubt deserves to be in the convo for the #5 spot with 2.8 rWAR | 1.4 fWAR | +2.12 WPA as a reliever. Just not sure I’d put him over Chad Fox (2.4 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | +3.96 WPA) or Bill Castro (6.5 rWAR | 2.5 fWAR plus almost 20 years as the bullpen coach). Even someone like Boxberger had similar impact (2.4 rWAR | 1.5 fWAR | +2.45 WPA) in 75 fewer IP because all his appearances were high leverage.
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