sveumrules

Megill/Cousins: -.221 WPA Wilson/Devin: +.272 WPA

Loved the Rea blurb. Considering he was ostensibly our 9th SP entering the season, that he’s pitched well enough (inspired enough run support) for the team to go 5-3 in his starts so far has to be considered a win overall.

Should’ve called him up from AAA two weeks ago!!1!1!!

26-4 in 30 games scoring at least four runs this year. 4-23 in 27 games scoring three or fewer runs this year. Four in the magic number,

Cool write up, reilly. I’ll always have a soft spot for Rickie because that draft with him and Delmon Young, plus the Fielder pick in 2002, were a big part of me getting back into the Brewers after leaving SE Wisco for a few years around the late 90s/early 2000s. Outside of the hit tool not panning out (94 AVG+ | 131 K%+) he did deliver with above average power for a 2B (115 ISO+), patience (122 BB%+) and speed (126 SB | +19.5 BSR). Unfortunately the glove was maybe even worse than advertised (-113 DRS | -45.8 UZR). All numbers career with Brewers. If we narrow it to his five year prime from 2007-11 he came in at a 117 wRC+ and 15.7 WAR which was good for 9th among 2B during that stretch even though he missed about 1.5 seasons to injury (only 2497 PA) during that stretch. All in all, I think the pick was a hit, especially with the hindsight of knowing Nick Markakis was the true prize.

Nashville North coming through.

After another nails performance last night, the Brewers bullpen increased their MLB best Win Probability Added to +4.47. Not bad for Devin and the Question Marks. After the Cards pen meltdown last night their bullpen is at -2.55 WPA (28th).

Appears as though Rudy maybe has some nice deception going on there too. What I think I’m seeing is his set up looks like he’s going to come at you with a fairly standard high 3/4 arm slot, but then his actual release is a slot lower? Not sure how much of that data is public on the minor league side, but looks like he gets pretty good extension too.

Well, I kinda cheated since that line includes his two HR game from 06/01, so “only” 300/383/478 (120 wRC+) for May proper. Good start towards June Hitter of the Month though!!

Shout out to Blake Perkins, who has been on a tear since returning to Nashville at 330/420/564 (146 wRC+) over 112 PA since May 2nd with 24 K | 16 BB.

I’d say Contreras, Miller, Anderson, Payamps, Wilson, Miley, Peguero, even Rea and Teheran (+7.1 combined WAR) have been way bigger hits than Winker and Voit (-1.1 combined WAR) have been misses. The main reason this team is middling so far is underperformance from Adames, Burnes, Peralta and Lauer plus injury to Woodruff with a dash of Taylor/Turang/Wiemer not hitting.

Significant trades this far before the deadline like Sabathia in 08 or Adames in 21 are pretty rare, who would you target? Going down the wRC+ leaderboard for non-contenders (min 100 PA) there is Brent Rooker (145) and Ryan Noda (143) from OAK, Jake Burger (145) and Luis Robert (123) from CHW, Zach McKinstry (138) from DET, Nick Pratto (133) and Sal Perez (123) from KCR, and Randal Grichuk (131) from COL. That’s pretty much it for guys over a 120 wRC+. Right now there is one guy on the team over performing, Owen Miller (135 wRC+). I would say Rowdy (120), Anderson (109), Contreras (108) and Yelich (105) are right around where they should be, so we’ve at least got 5/9ths of a lineup. The #1 thing that needs to happen is for Adames to come back and hit closer to the 120 wRC+ he posted from 2021-22 than his current 84 mark. If he doesn’t that’s probably a lose lose for both the NLC and trade deadline. Next up, Urias coming back and hitting around the 111 wRC+ he posted from 2021-22 would be a huge improvement over Turang currently at a 51 wRC+. Tyrone Taylor (104 wRC+ from 2021-22) is due for massive positive regression from his current 8 wRC+. From there it gets admittedly murkier. Frelick and Hiura coming back from injury could be two internal options for improvement coming up before the deadline. How crazy would it be if a “fixed” Hiura came back and gave us a boost similar to 2019, time being a flat circle and all that. Brewers full season position player wRC+ since 2018 has been at 105, 102, 98 and 104 last year. They have a recent history of being able to put together cromulent offenses. I don’t believe their current 87 wRC+ (which would tie 1997 for the worst Brewers offense ever) is representative of their true talent level with essentially four black holes in the lineup at the moment. Some combination of improvement from current players, plus both internal and external lineup additions over the remainder of the season should hopefully get that team wRC+ closer to where it’s been over the last half decade.

…but with his left arm though.

Justin King with two Ks in a 1-2-3 ninth for the TRats to drop his season ERA to 1.50 with 24 K | 9 BB over his 12 IP. Alex Hall, Terence Doston and Eric Brown Jr. due up bottom of nine trailing 3-2.

Nashville holds on with Thyago Vieira recording four of the final five outs via K with a hit and walk mixed in. Now up to 13.1 scoreless frames on the season with 19 K | 4 BB.

Some nice relief work in Carolina with Shane Smith going two scoreless, now at 37 K | 9 BB over 21.1 IP. Tanner Shears struck out a pair and walked one in a scoreless ninth to lower his ERA to 0.52 on the season with 30 K | 15 BB across his 17.1 IP. A solo HR back on May 7th remains his lone run surrendered.

Looking at his StatCast running numbers is not pretty. Steady decline from 28.0 ft/s (75th percentile) in 2018 down to 26.4 ft/s (29th percentile) in 2022. That’s like catcher/DH slow. For comparison, Joey Bart and Eloy Jimenez are at 26.3 ft/s so far this year.

Eric Brown Jr. singled to cash in Alex Hall’s double, Wisco trailing 2-1 bottom of three.

Was at 284/429/448 (149 wRC+) with 15 BB | 21 K over his last 84 PAs entering tonight.

It all started with an error. After retiring Jose Sibrian and Hedbert Perez to start the sixth inning, Luis Lara ROE’d, moved to second on a PB, scored on a Kay-Lan Nicasia single, Luke Adams walked, a balk moved them both up a base then a Jheremy Vargas single scored them both. Now Jadher Areinamo has walked with a Gregory Barrios single knocking another in. Now 11-4 Carolina with two on two out top of six.

Speaking of HRs, Blake Perkins has gone deep for the second time, Sounds now up 7-2 top of five.

Tristen Lutz and Ethan Murray home runs have the Shuckers on the board, 3-0 bottom of two.

Wisco also just underway trailing 2-0 top of two. TRats loaded the bases bottom of one on Robert Moore, Ben Metzinger and Joe Gray Jr. singles, but Eduardo Garcia couldn’t cash them in.

Biloxi just underway and still scoreless bottom of two. Chourio doubled and Quero singled in their first PAs while Christian Mejias has K’d three through his first two frames.

Nashville up 5-2 top of four as six consecutive singles from Blake Perkins, Luis Urias, Jon Singleton, Alex Jackson, Cam Devanney and Tyler Naquin plated four runs in the third.