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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Except the Brewers don’t view the DH that way. They’ve primarily used bat first/only players in the role. Of the 1,082 DH PAs since last year the distribution is Cutch (360), Yelich (190), Winker (169), Hiura (96), Tellez (78), Contreras (43), Renfroe (29), Voit (26), Ruf (24) is everyone with at least 20 DH PA since last year.
  2. sveumrules
    Yup. That, with a little of Moreno’s insistence on being obstinate mixed in.
  3. sveumrules
    I agree in theory, but it isn’t so easy in practice. Toro is on the 40 man, Devanney and Dorrian are minor league FAs the Brewers would likely prefer to retain given their emphasis on maintaining organizational depth. Black is still a work in progress in the field too. Easier to give him reps as the everyday 3B in Biloxi than juggling things around in Nashville.
  4. sveumrules
    Here are our top ten players by number of PAs with their wRC+ at the ASB last year… Yelich (108 wRC+), Tellez (110 wRC+), Cutch (98 wRC+), Adames (114 wRC+), Wong (97 wRC+), Urias (99 wRC+), Jace (113 wRC+), Renfroe (113 wRC+), Taylor (94 wRC+) and Omar (95 wRC+) Ten guys at or around league average. Hard to make meaningful gains there. Here are our top ten players this year by number of PAs with their ASB wRC+… Yelich (128 wRC+), Adames (91 wRC+), Anderson (90 wRC+), Wiemer (88 wRC+), Contreras (112 wRC+), Rowdy (79 wRC+), Miller (98 wRC+), Turang (55 wRC+), Winker (69 wRC+), Caratini (105 wRC+). There are a three easy spots to upgrade there compared to last year.
  5. sveumrules
    He threw 78 IP last year. Would guess they are shooting for around 100-110 this year. Currently at 51 IP this year with the Futures Game.
  6. sveumrules
    We have not picked anyone up because zero trades have been consummated across MLB to this point. Rarely see much action two weeks out from the deadline.
  7. sveumrules
    I think part of the reason he hasn’t even gotten the call to AAA is just the depth of 3B on the Nashville roster. Urias, Devanney, Toro, Dorrian, Alvarez before opting out. Think Brosseau is still down there too? Plus there isn’t really an obvious guy at Wisco deserving of the bump up to take his spot. I’d love it if they cut bait with Winker and gave just about anyone in the system the DH PAs instead, but think they’ll just ride things out to the deadline at this point before shaking things up.
  8. sveumrules
    Looks like Misio threw 78 IP last year between JC and Carolina. He’s at 51 IP this year if you count the Futures Game. Say 6-7 starts at AA is another 30-ish IP. Depending how that goes it could line him up for a late August call up with prolly 25 IP or so left before they’d want to shut him down for the season. Agree it’s a long shot between the pitchers we should have coming back and the deadline approaching, but throwing those last couple dozen IP of the season from the MLB bullpen could end up being better for his development than throwing them in the AA rotation.
  9. sveumrules
    Tellez: 69 K / 288 PA = 24.0 K% Adames: 89 K / 362 PA = 24.6 K% Turang: 55 K / 230 PA = 23.9 K% Wiemer: 87 K / 313 PA = 27.8 K%
  10. sveumrules
    They’ll need to get the bats heated up again to have any hope with Greene/Lodolo injured currently and Abbott regressing to the mean as he approaches his previous professional high in IP. As for CES, maybe he starts out sizzling before going ice cold like EDLC… Elly De La Cruz first 71 PA: 179 wRC+ (26.8 K%) last 76 PA: 48 wRC+ (32.9 K%) …or maybe he starts out hot and mostly keeps it up like MM… Matt McLain first 124 PA: 133 wRC+ (26.6 K%) last 123 PA: 125 wRC+ (30.1 K%) …or maybe he even starts out slow before picking it up like fellow bat first/only prospect & Twins trade mate SS… Spencer Steer 2022: 108 PA | 76 wRC+ 2023: 386 PA | 120 wRC+
  11. sveumrules
    Rockies made zero trades last deadline and only one minor move at each of the 2021 and 2019 deadlines. Cron has hit decent since returning from injury, but it’s only 50 PAs of 113 wRC+ versus 148 PAs of 72 wRC+ before the injury. Add it all up and he’s at 84 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR on the year.
  12. sveumrules
    The negative dWAR is just the positional adjustment for playing DH. I can kinda see the logic for hand waving it away in Ohtani’s singular case since he’d probably be a gold glove RF if he didn’t have to DH in order to stay healthy enough to pitch every six days.
  13. sveumrules
    It’s fun hyperbole, but the Angels don’t have the capacity to absorb an entire farm system nor do the Brewers have the capacity to surrender one. The most recent similar trade was probably when the Dodgers traded for two months of Max Scherzer and eight months of Trea Turner in exchange for Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray who were both ranked around Top 50-75 entering 2021. Obviously Ohtani is a unique case, but considering he comes with six fewer months of team control than that package (and doesn’t play SS everyday), I’m not sure he will garner a significantly greater return if the Angels do decide to deal him.
  14. sveumrules
    March 30th availability is nowhere near comparable to trade deadline value. On March 30th, teams have ideas about how competitive they’ll be but no proof yet. Rosters are mostly set so you can slip some heavily flawed guys like Hiura or one of how so ever many fungible relief arms through without losing them. If you’ve been optioned multiple times, teams have gotten a pretty good look at you. You probably haven’t fulfilled some element of whatever promise got you forty manned in the first place. Guys like Frelick, Black, Gasser, Rodriguez still have far more perceived upside than back of the 40 man churn. Maybe they’ll never live up to it, but teams will give up more value for younger players with higher perceived upside and additional years of control than they will give up for older guys who already have middling MLB track records and ticking service clock.
  15. sveumrules
    Division Odds after going 5-1 in those six games vs Reds… FanGraphs MIL: 72.0% CIN: 16.2% Baseball Prospectus MIL: 77.2% CIN: 11.9%
  16. sveumrules
    FanGraphs uses a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS projections for each player along with manually curated depth charts for future playing time. This is what they have for the Brewers currently, for instance. From there you can click around and see other teams. This Jeff Sullivan article from before he got hired by the Rays does a good job of looking at how projections compare to actual standings and Pythagorean standings when it comes to predicting the second half. The whole thing is worth a read, but the TL/DR version is… If you want to know what’s going to happen in the second half, you need to understand it’s impossible to predict. But if you want to give yourself even a chance, you should place by far the most weight on the updated team projections. I know it’s tempting to believe in a team’s actual to-date results, but they don’t mean quite as much as you’d presume. The projections are able to keep a cooler head.
  17. sveumrules
    Enniel Cortez definitely putting up some pretty serious numbers so far. Think I’d have to put him at the top of my DSL pitcher intrigue list at the moment but plenty of contenders with Aneuris Rodriguez, Bryan Rivera, Eric Prado, Melvin Hernandez and Anthony Flores in the mix.
  18. sveumrules
    Winker and Voit were duds (-1.1 combined WAR), but Contreras, Miller and Anderson (4.4 combined WAR) on offense, Miley, Rea and Teheran (3.8 combined rWAR) in the rotation and Payamps, Peguero and Wilson (+4.89 combined WPA) in the bullpen is around thirteen wins from nine mostly low key Arnold acquisitions. The main reason the team hasn’t run away with the NLC are holdovers like Burnes, Peralta, Lauer, Adames, Tellez, Taylor and Urias underperforming to varying degrees. Hard for me to blame Arnold for that.
  19. sveumrules
    Bummer, didn’t even notice the header on their page. Guess it should have been obvious when they still had the Cubs at 21% for the Division
  20. sveumrules
    Short athletic righty with a big curveball, sounds kinda like high school Sonny Gray.
  21. sveumrules
    FanGraphs scouting report… Knoth has a lightning-fast arm that was only producing low-90s velocity throughout his showcase summer, but his drop-and-drive style delivery was incredibly athletic, his fastball was seasoned by riding life, and he was snapping off the best curveball in the class. Knoth's breaking ball is the Grim Reaper, an absolute yakker in the 78-80 mph range with huge downward break. He experienced a velocity boost in the spring of 2023 and moved from the early second round of the FanGraphs draft board into the first. Knoth doesn't have prototypical starter's size but he's a superlative on-mound athlete with mechanics that are as repeatable as they are electric. You can go nuts projecting on his changeup and a second breaking ball because of his arm speed and proclivity for spin. This is also a cold weather prospect who will still be 17 on draft day. Knoth's mix already looks like that of a premium reliever and he may just be scratching the surface of his ability.
  22. sveumrules
    College vs high school so they’d be on different development tracks, plus with the bust rates of picks in general it’d give them two shots at getting a 3B out of the draft. Especially if they view Miller as more of a mid 1st round talent that slipped due to injury.
  23. sveumrules
    Haha thought the same thing, here comes 300/30/100 for a decade.
  24. sveumrules
    FanGraphs scouting report… Wilken has plus-plus present raw power and has hit several balls harder than 115 mph during his career at Wake, and he generates that power with a comically simple swing. He's an extremely patient hitter who rarely chases, and most of Wilken's whiffs come against sliders that finish in the strike zone but that he simply can't reach. Overall his contact ability is a tad shy of average right now, and will probably trend down as he climbs the minors. But Wilken's selectivity and the lift in his swing help ensure that he'll get to all of his power in games, and his on-base skills help his offensive profile float enough that he could be an everyday third baseman. Wilken has big raw arm strength but his size and stiffness aren't a clean fit at third base in the big leagues, where he's measured against the Matt Chapmans and Nolan Arenados of the world. He'll need to work to stay as agile and mobile as possible to avoid a shift to first.
  25. sveumrules
    Longenhagen chat makes Waldrep sound more likely
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