sveumrules

Is Eloy really a star though? There are 177 players with at least 1,500 PA since 2019. He comes in at 123 wRC+ (44th), -39.2 DEF (151st) and 5.8 WAR (129th).

Yeah, Devin Williams +11.20 WPA since 2020 is best among all pitchers, starters or relievers. His 7.2 rWAR and 6.0 fWAR are first among all relievers. His 178 K%+ is 3rd. He has faced 725 batters as a high leverage reliever used only in specific circumstances. Eloy, a supposed everyday player, has 1,081 PAs over that same stretch. Ohtani, JDM, Cruz, Giancarlo, Yordan, Ozuna, Vogelbach, Soler, Harper and Turner all have more DH PAs with an equal or better wRC+ as Eloy since 2020. Devin will also make considerably less than $48M over the next three years.

Is the DH penalty overly punitive? Maybe. But the one year Eloy played OF regularly he put up -10 DRS and -12 OAA in 957 innings. Playing DH is likely giving him a WAR boost because it theoretically keeps him healthier and for sure keeps his brutal glove out of the field.

Probably a couple things going on here. Its a small sample, so lotsa noise from the outset, though the plus stats are supposed to stabilize pretty quickly relative to other stats. But I think it’s mostly a case of measuring different things. xERA essentially just converts xwOBA to an ERA scale so it is measuring K/BB/HR rates together with StatCast batted ball results. The various plus numbers are only telling us about the raw pitch characteristics, I don’t believe they take actual results into account. What they tell me all together is AJSS hasn't had the best stuff or command in his 16 IP this year, but he has been inducing weak contact.

BTV lists him at -0.6, so essentially even value. Sure he has seasons of 138 and 144 wRC+, but those were only over 226 PAs and 327 PAs due to pandemic and injury. His career high in WAR is 1.7 because he has no defensive value and can’t stay healthy, has only topped 500 PAs once five years ago. If he had a bunch of seasons with 500 PA and a 140 wRC+, he’d be incredibly valuable, but he has yet to do both at the same time, or even crack 2.0 WAR in a season yet. Something like Jarvis or Moore would be the highest I would go on the BF Top 20.

Could still catch the Dodgers for that #2 seed (3 games back currently) and skip the first round completely. Or get the Reds in the first round, who we’ve owned this year. No doubt this team is a longshot to do much of anything in the playoffs, but it’s all just so random that it’s hard for me to say anyone is incapable of anything.

Whoops, bolded wrong team. So 4-3 for the underdogs over the last seven WS.

The first paragraph pretty perfectly encapsulates how much randomness is truly at play over any three game series. Sure, the better team wins the series more often than not, but not always. Over fifty some series a year, even the very best team will inevitably lose some, even to bad teams. The playoffs are a little different with a gauntlet of slightly longer five and seven game series, but how often does the “favorite” actually make it through? FanGraphs historical Playoff Odds go back to 2014, let’s check it and see with WS Odds at the start of the playoffs in the parentheses… 2014 Faves: DET (18.6%) WAS (19.5%) Actual: KCR (4.9%) SFG (3.2%) 2015 Faves: TOR (13.6%) LAD (22.9%) Actual: KCR (11.0%) NYM (9.2%) 2016 Faves: BOS (18.1%) CHC (18.7%) Actual: CLE (8.8%) CHC (18.7%) 2017 Faves: CLE (22.1%) LAD (16.6%) Actual: HOU (15.1%) LAD (16.6%) 2018 Faves: HOU (24.0%) LAD (21.0%) Actual: BOS (15.4%) LAD (21.0%) 2019 Faves: HOU (35.2%) LAD (16.7%) Actual: HOU (35.2%) WAS (7.6%) 2020 Faves: NYY (8.1%) LAD (20.0%) Actual: TBR (5.6%) LAD (20.0%) 2021 Faves: HOU (15.5%) LAD (16.9%) Actual: HOU (15.5%) ATL (9.6%) 2022 Faves: HOU (17.2%) ATL (16.9%) Actual: HOU (17.2%) PHI (5.9%) Being the best team certainly helps but didn’t mean anything in 2014-15. Over the last seven WS the Cubs Dynasty once and the Dodgers/Astros thrice each have made the WS as favorites, but the other seven WS entrants over that stretch came from the field. The underdogs have gone 4-3 in those most recent seven WS with the 2016 Cubs, 2020 Dodgers and 2022 Astros the only “favorites” to win it all.

Are they likely to have a similar price in trade though? Rooker is cheaper, younger and has way more team control remaining, with better numbers in 2023 on top of it all. I’m not saying they are infallible, but BTV has Rooker at +10.8 and Canha at -0.8 in median value.

According to MLBTR, Mets are also sending around $35M to TEX in the deal. Scherzer waived his NTC to facilitate the deal. Mets get Acuña the younger, currently sporting a 121 wRC+ with 42 SB | 5 CS as a 21 year old in AA.

Timber Rattlers did win the suspended game as Tanner Shears walked two and struck out three in the top of the tenth. Bottom half saw Matthew Wood intentionally walked, but Joe Gray Junior’s grounder to SS only yielded an out at first. Hendry Mendez was then intentionally walked to load the bases before Eduardo Garcia’s dribbler to 3B scored Robert Moore for the walk off.

Lotsa big nights for Biloxi with Tristen Lutz (2-3, 2xHR, BB), Wes Clarke (2-4, HR), Chourio (2-5, 3B), Isaac Collins (2-4, SF), Zavier Warren (1-3, BB), Freddy Zamora (2-3, SF, SB) and Lamar Sparks (2-4, 2B) all spending lotsa time on or circling the bases as the Shuckers roll 9-4.

Joe Gray Jr. big three run bomb. Hendry Mendez, Ben Metzinger, Jheremy Vargas all went 2-4. Robert Moore (single, two walks), Matthew Wood (single, walk) each on base multiple times. But Karlos Morales (1.1 IP | 2 BB | 3 K) had the only scoreless line as Wisco falls 11-3.

Logan Henderson with a gem, 5 IP | 2 ER | 4 H | 1 BB | 8 K. Tyler Wehrle and Yerlin Rodriguez then combined for four scoreless and 2 H | 1 BB | 3 K. Luke Adams (who else?) with the big game at 2-2 with a double and two walks, while Gregory Barrios plated all three runs via a single and ROE as Carolina prevails 3-2.

You weren’t kidding on that Corniel line, 5 IP | 1 ER | 4 H | 0 BB | 8 K. Seems like if he can iron out his command (7.97 BB9), there’s some good stuff to work with at 10.62 K9 and a 51.0 GB% before tonight.

Yeah, think it will definitely be fluid between the four 2B/3B options, plus Anderson when he comes back too. And maybe even Turang in the mix again come September for defense/speed. Riding the hot hand, trying to play matchups. Toro being the only switch hitter among a bunch of righty options could play in his favor too.

Good summary, I’ve been trying to put together something like this, but there are just so many moving pieces. My best guess at the position player group post-deadline is… Ca: Contreras, Caratini 1B: Santana 2B/3B: Urias/Monasterio SS: Adames LF: Yelich CF: Wiemer RF: Frelick DH: TRADE Bench: three of Miller, Perkins, Taylor, Toro

Put me in the camp that none of the bats moved at the deadline will be both good enough and have enough team control remaining to require anyone in our top nine or so prospects. Even Lara and EBJ at 10/11 would be a tough pill to swallow for the kind of bats I believe are likely to be dealt. If anybody from the current BF Top 20 gets moved I’d hope it’s Moore or Jarvis, they’re probably the highest ranked position player and pitcher I’d be willing to give up personally. My guess is Black and Chourio get promoted to AAA after the deadline lining them up to start impacting the MLB club sometime in 2024.

Lauer with a scoreless frame 2 K | 1 BB. Juan Baez has homered to tie it up at 2-2 in the 4th.

Best thing for everyone except @Brock Beauchamp, Hiura is probably driving like 41.7% of all site traffic single handedly.

No, they signed him for $2.2M as a depth option for an as yet uncompleted season. He likely would have been called up when Winker got injured if he himself wasn't already injured at the time. He could be traded at the deadline, he could be called up after the deadline since August waiver trades don't exist anymore. Still plenty of time to get some ROI.

Does "someone please edit clancy's articles for illogical non-sequiturs and tenuous-at-best connections" count as constructive criticism? Jimmy Nelson getting a fluke injury on the bases has nothing to do with Jackson Chourio, Hiura's development path was on a completely different track than Jackson's as a twenty year old college draftee vs a teenage international signee.

If MLB teams thought Keston's 2022 MLB stats were indicative of his true talent level he wouldn't be in AAA to begin with. It appears that they put more stock in the repeatability of his 41.7% K rate than they do his 115 wRC+ propped up by an unsustainable .355 BABIP and 29.8% HR/FB rate.

Right, every player has ups and down throughout the season, but not every player gets hurt and then loses 270 points off their slugging when they return.

One of the primary problems with Hiura is all his sample sizes are small, because he can't field enough or make enough contact to stay in the lineup on a consistent basis. Quoting his full season AAA stats when he has clearly been two different players pre and post injury (lost 270 points of SLG) is just being willfully obtuse.