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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Depending how the season plays out, I’ll probably have him at the end of the Top 20 with Logan Henderson. T2: Misio T10: Gasser/Rodriguez/Knoth T20: Henderson/Blalock
  2. sveumrules
    Maybe Mark A can get Cohen to pay the AmFam maintenance bill in exchange for letting Arnold out of his contract?
  3. sveumrules
    Santana is about $2.4M remaining, Mets picked up his salary minus the min but Brewers are on the hook for Canha’s $2M buyout, Chafin is another $2.5M at about $1.8M left in salary plus a 725K buyout. Sending out Urias saved about $1.6M.
  4. sveumrules
    6.4 on BRef, 4.4 on FanGraphs for 2021-22. Looks like the main difference is defense, BR has him at +13 fielding/position adjustment for those two years versus -5.9 at FG, mostly driven by OAA hating his innings at SS (-11).
  5. sveumrules
    Think that’s definitely part of it. Change of scenery for Luis, get a talented arm back, offset some of the salary they acquired.
  6. sveumrules
    Except their level of performance has been changing, rising and falling throughout the season… First 19 games (14-5): 103 wRC+ Next 49 games (20-29) 79 wRC+ Last 39 games (23-16) 92 wRC+ The arrow has been pointing up since they bottomed out after what was a perfectly cromulent start to the season. How will the offense fare over the final 55 games? I don’t know. If they revert to hitting around a 79 wRC+, they’re cooked. If they revert to hitting around a 103 wRC+, that would help considerably. If they stick around the 92 wRC+ they’ve been posting the last six weeks, it’ll probably be a dog fight down to the wire.
  7. sveumrules
    True. But if those players were made available for negotiation (believe Arenado would only waive his NTC for LAD), the Brewers weren’t the only team unwilling to meet the ask.
  8. sveumrules
    There’s no need for hypotheticals. Kiké Hernandez, Amed Rosario, Carlos Santana, Nicky Lopez, CJ Cron, Randall Grichuk, Mark Canha, Jeimer Candelario AJ Pollock and Mark Matthias, that is the reality we are dealing with to this point.
  9. sveumrules
    How many better position players have been traded so far? There is no Soto on the market this year.
  10. sveumrules
    FanGraphs currently has the Braves at 25% World Series Odds compared to 3% for the Brewers. No combination of deadline moves could gain the Brewers 5% in WS odds, much less 22%.
  11. sveumrules
    The Brewers have won the 6th most games in MLB since 2018, imagine what they could do if they only tried.
  12. sveumrules
    Because the Rays are the best run small market in baseball, instead of only 2nd or 3rd best like the Brewers. If the Cubs were actually playing chess to our checkers (they aren’t) and have a $65M edge on payroll (they do) they wouldn’t be looking up at us in the standings again (they are).
  13. sveumrules
    Wins and payroll are “analytics” now? I thought that was about as old school as it gets. The Brewers have gotten league worst production at 1B/DH so far this year and have made two moves in an attempt to upgrade production at those spots. Sorry they didn’t trade for your preferred dice roll.
  14. sveumrules
    If the Cubs are playing chess why are they looking up at us in the standings (again) despite a $65M edge in OD payroll?
  15. sveumrules
    CC in 2008 = Adames in 2021 Yelich in 2018 >> Greinke in 2012 Which Melvin moves are you pining for? The Suppan, Lohse, Garza signings?
  16. sveumrules
    Chourio is a consensus Top 5 prospect as a teenager on fire in AA. Frelick is a nice prospect no doubt (peak pre-season rank of #30) but he is at least one FV grade if not two behind Chourio, mostly on account of middling power projection and already being four years older. They aren’t an either/or comparison.
  17. sveumrules
    Kim signed as an MLB free agent (not amateur) so my understanding is he will become a free agent again once that option is declined. Even if he did have 3.5 years of control remaining, he doesn’t have a long enough track record of top shelf offense for me to consider him in a blockbuster Chourio/Misio package. If the Brewers were to deal those two (I don’t believe they would), I’d hope it’s for someone like Luis Robert or Jose Ramirez.
  18. sveumrules
    Yeah, Eloy would be the best option from a performance standpoint, but will also likely cost the most to acquire. I’d probably have Canha third behind Pham or Teoscar of the remaining DH options, and would be fine with any of them really given how bad our DHs have been this year.
  19. sveumrules
    Yeah, they’re just two different profiles. Rooker is more boom or bust, both in terms of track record and plate discipline profile. I wouldn’t be surprised if he put up a 70 wRC+, a 130 wRC+ or anything in between over the next two months. Canha is who he is at this point, a guy with a good idea what he’s doing at the plate, but not quite enough pop for a corner. Maybe he gets hot and puts up a 115 wRC+ for two months, but I also wouldn’t expect him to drop much below 90 either. Its basically Hiura vs Cutch from last year. I guess for me it seems like Canha would cost less to acquire just because he’s a rental, more expensive and has limited ceiling. Rooker has way more questions about his future performance, but also more potential upside at a lower cost, which is why I think the A’s would want at least one interesting prospect for him.
  20. sveumrules
    Could still catch the Dodgers for that #2 seed (3 games back currently) and skip the first round completely. Or get the Reds in the first round, who we’ve owned this year. No doubt this team is a longshot to do much of anything in the playoffs, but it’s all just so random that it’s hard for me to say anyone is incapable of anything.
  21. sveumrules
    Are they likely to have a similar price in trade though? Rooker is cheaper, younger and has way more team control remaining, with better numbers in 2023 on top of it all. I’m not saying they are infallible, but BTV has Rooker at +10.8 and Canha at -0.8 in median value.
  22. sveumrules
    According to MLBTR, Mets are also sending around $35M to TEX in the deal. Scherzer waived his NTC to facilitate the deal. Mets get Acuña the younger, currently sporting a 121 wRC+ with 42 SB | 5 CS as a 21 year old in AA.
  23. sveumrules
    Yeah, think it will definitely be fluid between the four 2B/3B options, plus Anderson when he comes back too. And maybe even Turang in the mix again come September for defense/speed. Riding the hot hand, trying to play matchups. Toro being the only switch hitter among a bunch of righty options could play in his favor too.
  24. sveumrules
    Good summary, I’ve been trying to put together something like this, but there are just so many moving pieces. My best guess at the position player group post-deadline is… Ca: Contreras, Caratini 1B: Santana 2B/3B: Urias/Monasterio SS: Adames LF: Yelich CF: Wiemer RF: Frelick DH: TRADE Bench: three of Miller, Perkins, Taylor, Toro
  25. sveumrules
    Put me in the camp that none of the bats moved at the deadline will be both good enough and have enough team control remaining to require anyone in our top nine or so prospects. Even Lara and EBJ at 10/11 would be a tough pill to swallow for the kind of bats I believe are likely to be dealt. If anybody from the current BF Top 20 gets moved I’d hope it’s Moore or Jarvis, they’re probably the highest ranked position player and pitcher I’d be willing to give up personally. My guess is Black and Chourio get promoted to AAA after the deadline lining them up to start impacting the MLB club sometime in 2024.
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