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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Carolina currently up 3-2 bottom of seven. Will Rudy with another blazer at 5 IP | 0 R | 5 H | 2 BB | 7 K. Luke Adams, Jheremy Vargas and Gregory Barrios have all doubled. Jesus Parra replaced Adams top of 7th at 3B. Looks like Luke got caught stealing in the bottom of the 5th, so maybe something happened there?
  2. sveumrules
    No doubt, Corey Ray was a bust. At the same time here are the 1st rounders drafted after him to put up even five WAR so far, #8 Cal Quantrill (7.4 WAR), #20 Gavin Lux (5.2), #32 Will Smith (12.1 WAR) and #33 Dylan Carlson (5.0 WAR). None of the four players drafted ahead of him have even cracked 5.0 WAR yet, looks like lotsa GMs drafted bust in the first round of 2016. Is Keston Hiura a bust? Many were clamoring for him as our best hitter last year. His paltry 1.5 WAR is the best of any 1st round hitter drafted 9th or later. The only 1st rounder to crack five WAR from 2017 was #31 Drew Rasmussen, who didn't sign with the Rays. Brice Turang just made MLB from the 2018 draft, prolly a little early to declare him a bust. Here are the first rounders drafted after him to top 5.0 WAR so far, #24 Nico Hoerner (8.4 WAR) and #31 Shane McLanahan (7.7 WAR) Sure, Small looks like a bust so far. At the same time only two 1st rounders drafted after him have even cracked one WAR, #30 Anthony Volpe (1.2 WAR) and #34 Drey Jameson (1.6 WAR). Mitchell's 1.6 WAR is already tied for 2nd in the 2020 draft class, hard to call that a bust. Frelick and Brown Jr are still traversing the minors. Again, a little early to declare either of them busts to this point.
  3. sveumrules
    Thought both the Maldy & Julks bombs looked like circa 2019 cutters that didn’t cut.
  4. sveumrules
    Did they though? FanGraphs currently has the Brewers roster projected for 85 wins with 62.9% playoff odds. On May 22nd last year they had the Phillies roster projected for 84 wins with 37.3% playoff odds. On May 22nd of 2021 they had the Braves roster projected for 83 wins with 35.5% playoff odds. On May 22nd of 2019 they had the Nationals roster projected for 82 wins with 27.7% playoff odds.
  5. sveumrules
    On May 22nd last year the Phillies were 19-22. They went to the World Series. On May 22nd of 2021 the Braves were 22-24. They went to the World Series. On May 22nd of 2019 the Nationals were 19-30. They went to the World Series. It might be a little early to start making definitive statements about who is or isn't a championship contender.
  6. sveumrules
    Woodruff is injured and will likely only have around a month to show that he is healthy before the deadline. Unless he comes back from injury guns blazing, I can't imagine too many teams willing to pony up what Brewers fans would consider fair value in return. Burnes (63 ERA- | 58 FIP- from 2020-22 vs 80 ERA- | 94 FIP- so far this year) and Adames (120 wRC+ from 2021-22 vs 87 wRC+ so far this year) are underperforming their recent norms, so they likely would not return a massive haul if they keep playing like they have so far this year. Best bet is probably to hope they rebound/get healthy over the course of the season, put up some impressive playoff performances and look to deal in the offseason when they've hopefully recovered some value. Pretty crazy that the three most valuable assets on the team have all underperformed or been hurt to this point and we are still in first place though.
  7. sveumrules
    Good breakdown. Here are the positional wRC+ marks and WAR totals with league ranks via FanGraphs... Ca: 109 wRC+ (7th) 1.5 WAR (3rd) 1B: 110 wRC+ (14th) 0.1 WAR (18th) 2B: 91 wRC+ (17th) 0.7 WAR (12th) 3B: 114 wRC+ (9th) 0.7 WAR (14th) SS: 85 wRC+ (19th) 0.7 WAR (14th) LF: 110 wRC+ (9th) 1.3 WAR (4th) CF: 87 wRC+ (21st) 0.7 WAR (19th) RF: 52 wRC+ (28th) 0.0 WAR (24th) DH: 78 wRC+ (27th) -0.6 WAR (27th) The only spots that are killing us relative to preseason expectations are SS, RF and DH. At SS, Willy just needs to play better if he wants that payday. In RF, I don't think Tyrone is going to keep up a 16 wRC+ for the whole season so we should see improvement there. DH is the easiest to fill (in theory) but losing Hiura as an insurance policy hurts. Pretty much comes down to Adames, Winker and Taylor need to hit better until Urias, maybe Frelick, maybe even Black, plus whoever we pick up at the deadline can provide reinforcements.
  8. sveumrules
    Yup, 27th in FIP based WAR, but 11th in runs allowed based WAR, mostly on account of that defense and a strand rate that is 3rd best in MLB. Same story with the position players, 22nd in wRC+, 23rd in R/G, but 14th in WAR on account of the defense.
  9. sveumrules
    Maybe they have ridden them too hard, maybe they haven't. Payamps has thrown back to back days three times, Peguero once, Wilson nonce. Either way, that doesn't change the fact that to this point they have been found gems and have played a major role in keeping an otherwise mediocre team (outside of their defense) atop the division.
  10. sveumrules
    Brewers relievers are currently second in MLB with +3.18 Win Probability Added. No name newcomers Payamps (54 ERA- | 83 FIP- | +1.15 WPA), Wilson (67 ERA- | 81 FIP- | +0.44 WPA) and Peguero (33 ERA- | 89 FIP- | +0.32 WPA) have been a big part of that success which is keeping the team afloat along with their defense (+25 DRS | 2nd).
  11. sveumrules
    Are they even underperforming expectations though? Coming into the season they were almost unanimously picked as the 7th best team in the NL. NYM, SDP, PHI, LAD, ATL and STL all made the postseason in 2022 and entered the season with payroll advantages between $55M and $110M over the Brewers. That’s an extra two to four superstars per team. At this point they have the 3rd/4th highest playoff odds in the NL, so even with their recent underwhelming play they’ve still gained ground from before the season started. Anyone who thought they were a true talent .737 W% team after starting 14-5 or who now thinks they are a true talent level .407 W% team after going 11-16 since is probably overreacting to a small sample. Entering the season they were projected at 86 wins by FanGraphs and 87 wins by 538. They are currently on pace for 88 wins. Barring miraculous circumstances, this was never a team who was going to jump out in front of the field and run away with things before 30% of the season was even complete. What we have experienced to this point is exactly what we knew we were in for before the season started, a flawed team that would have ups and downs throughout the 162 game marathon and hopefully when it all shakes out at the end will be a little less flawed than nine other NL teams.
  12. sveumrules
    If we’re ranking the affiliates by box score excitement I’d go… 01 Biloxi: Quero, Black, Rodriguez, Jarvis and Zamora all putting up strong seasons. Chourio holding his own with an aggressive placement. Meeker, Baker and Chirino off to solid starts in the pen. Noah Campbell making a case for more consideration. 02 Carolina: Guilarte, Lara and Adams all performing well as teenagers on the position player side. Misiorowski the headliner, but guys like Vallecillo, Aquino, Rudy, Shears have shown varying degrees of intrigue on the pitching side too. 03 Wisconsin: Wood just promoted & Brown Jr heating up about it on the offense side. Recently promoted Jimenez not missing a beat with Lazar, Woessner, Brady and Jordan also showing some promise on the mound. 04 Nashville: Probably the most disappointing between Sal’s injury, Gasser’s control problems and now Hiura’s injury, but Eddy Alvarez is a fun story I guess? Pitching is thin on SP but offers a plethora of relief options though with Andrews, Small, Thompson, Vieira and Miller leading candidates to cycle through the last couple bullpen spots over the course of the season.
  13. sveumrules
    Only shot 11/34 from three as a team and Jimmy was only 6/19 from the field. Got out-rebounded 63-39 including 22-6 on the offensive glass.
  14. sveumrules
    It’s not just the NL Central. The Mets broke all the payroll records this offseason. The World Series was a foregone conclusion, just a matter of if they’d sweep the AL team or let them win one game out of pity. They are currently 24-23. The Padres broke all the runner up payroll records this offseason. Stacked lineup with Bogaerts, Machado, Soto, Tatis Jr, etc. They are 21-26 and have scored fewer runs than the Brewers. Phillies actually went to the WS last year then they went out and spent $300M on Trea Turner just to rub it in. They have outscored us by a half dozen runs at least, but are still only 22-24. Meanwhile, the Dodgers were supposed to maybe finally take a step back this year since they trimmed payroll by their normal standards, but instead they are the class of the NL with the Braves. The only two teams that have played like “legit contenders” whatever that means. The last three full season WS entrants from the NL were a 6th seed, a team with the 5th most RS wins and a Wild Card. If recent history is any indication, it’s the Braves and Dodgers who should be sweating because odds are one of the other four eventual NL playoff teams will end up in the WS over them.
  15. sveumrules
    Should also be noted that Carolina has the youngest position players in their league with an average age of 19.8 vs 20.7 league average vs 22.5 for the oldest team in the league. Same goes for Biloxi position players with an average age of 22.5 vs 23.8 league average vs 25.1 for the oldest team in the league.
  16. sveumrules
    They acquired Contreras who had a 162 wRC+ vs LHP from 2021-22, 10th best in MLB. He’s at a 149 wRC+ vs LHP so far this year. What they lost from Renfroe (+5.7 wRAA vs LHP in 2022) and Cutch (+1.2) was more than offset by jettisoning the PAs vs LHP that were given to Wong (-6.9 wRAA), Cain (-6.6), Hiura (-2.9) and Omar (-1.1) in 2022. Two of our better hitters vs LHP the last two seasons, Urias (114 wRC+) and Taylor (111 wRC+), have been hurt and missed most of the season to this point. Even a guy like Anderson put up a respectable 107 wRC+ vs LHP back when he was healthy and productive in 2018-20. Wiemer has a higher OPS vs LHP for his minor league career and has posted a 157 wRC+ vs LHP so far this year. There is no arguing the Brewers have been brutal vs LHP to start the season, but it’s not the result of doing nothing.
  17. sveumrules
    Last night was the Brewers 4th loss on the season when scoring at least four runs, now 20-4 in 24 such games. Obviously that leaves them 4-17 in the 21 games they’ve scored three runs or fewer. For as ugly as it’s been, going 2W 4L on this road trip was always the likeliest outcome so a win today can still salvage that at least.
  18. sveumrules
    Fun fact I just found out, if one types “Misio” in the player search at BRef and hit enter it takes them straight to Jacob’s page. Don’t find the Law blurb overly concerning. Feel like the delivery and potential additional injury/reliever risk that comes along with it was why he was still available at #63 with some of the best raw stuff in the draft. I’ve always had him with that Peralta, Ashby, Drew Rasmussen kind of profile where if they do make it up the ladder to MLB as a starter it will be more of a 20-25 GS | 5-6 inning guy vs say that much rarer 25-30+ GS | 6-7 inning guy.
  19. sveumrules
    Doesn’t include tonight’s game, but he was at 333/444/444 (162 wRC+) with 8 BB | 7 K and 8 SB/1 CS over his last 54 PA since he missed that week’s worth of games at the end of April/beginning of May.
  20. sveumrules
    Yeah. They went 74-88 in 2013. Their big offseason moves were signing Garza, trading Aoki for Will Smith and hoping for a return to MVP form for Braun coming off suspension/injury. Those aren’t the kind of moves that move the needle a dozen plus wins.
  21. sveumrules
    I dunno, they were 15th in runs scored (650) and 17th in runs allowed (657) so pythag thought they were lucky to even go 82-80. Position players came in at a 102 wRC+ (11th) and 22.0 WAR (9th), so they were pretty solid. Pitchers came in at 11.9 rWAR and 10.9 fWAR (both 22nd) though. Out of all the Melvin teams it might have been the most Melviny.
  22. sveumrules
    Yeah, the Brewers came up seven wins short of the playoffs in 2014. Sure, Wei-Chung may have cost them a couple two tree wins between his poor performance and the residual effects of being a pitcher short for the three months he was on the 25 man roster, but he didn't set them back over a half dozen wins.
  23. sveumrules
    Yeah, Miller also hit waaay better than Hernan throughout their minor league careers which I think gives him a little more upside with the bat even if the MLB results haven't quite been there yet... Miller Age 21 (A-): 216 PA | 135 wRC+ Age 21 (A): 114 PA | 145 wRC+ Age 22 (AA): 560 PA | 121 wRC+ Age 24 (AAA): 206 PA | 132 wRC+ Hernan Age 21 (A+): 475 PA | 79 wRC+ Age 22 (AA): 384 PA | 105 wRC+ Age 22 (AAA): 74 PA | 101 wRC+ Age 23 (AAA): 596 PA | 102 wRC+
  24. sveumrules
    2B have a 98 wRC+ so far. Turang is at 75 in 115 PA, but Miller brings it up with a 162 mark in 41 PA. CF are at a 97 wRC+ so far. Obviously Mitchell (107 in 60 PA) is done, but Wiemer has posted a 92 wRC+ in his 92 PA as a CF. Obviously DH has been bad (82 wRC+), but the real killer has been RF with an MLB worst 36 wRC+ so far. Small samples abound, but Wiemer (37 wRC+ in 42 PA), Anderson (44 wRC+ in 65 PA in RF vs 165 wRC+ in 88 PA at 3B), Taylor (11 wRC+ in 43 PA) and Blake Perkins (-16 wRC+ in 8 PA) have all hit like pitchers instead of RFers.
  25. sveumrules
    Patrick Dorrian saves Nashville from getting no hit as they fall 4-0. Tyson Miller threw three scoreless frames with 1 H | 2 BB | 3 K while Thyago Vieira had 3 K over 1.2 scoreless IP.
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