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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Does "someone please edit clancy's articles for illogical non-sequiturs and tenuous-at-best connections" count as constructive criticism? Jimmy Nelson getting a fluke injury on the bases has nothing to do with Jackson Chourio, Hiura's development path was on a completely different track than Jackson's as a twenty year old college draftee vs a teenage international signee.
  2. sveumrules
    Whither Cooper Hummel?
  3. sveumrules
    I bet they’d love to recoup some value on that deal. Gave up CJ Abrams (2.1 WAR this year), MacKenzie Gore (1.8 WAR) and James Wood (Top 5 prospect in MLB), plus Robert Hassell (Top 40ish at time of trade, struggling this year) and Jarlin Susana (19 yo pitcher with 3.90 ERA / 4.26 FIP in Carolina League). And so far the Padres got a trip to the NLCS out of it, and barring a miraculous run over the last two months a lost season. I would guess no one blows them away at the deadline and they instead extend Soto over the offseason plus sign Ohtani too (why not?) for a combined billion dollars.
  4. sveumrules
    When Keston Hiura was 19 he had an 18.1 K% for UC-Irvine in the Big West conference. Chourio has a 19.6 K% as a 19 year old for Biloxi in the AA Southern League against players 4.7 years his senior.
  5. sveumrules
    FanGraphs has updated their team lists to include draftees with Pratt (#5), Knoth (#6) and Wilken (#11) all slotting into the 45 FV tier. Bitonti (#19) and Boeve (#29) landed in the 40 FV tier.
  6. sveumrules
    Brewers 2B have a 67 wRC+ (27th) and 0.3 WAR (22nd) this year. Second base is definitely a need.
  7. sveumrules
    Winker’s $8.25M is the 5th highest salary on the team this year. Cutch’s $8.5M was the 4th highest salary on the team last year. They’ve spent big (by Brewers standards) on DH, it just hasn’t worked.
  8. sveumrules
    No thanks on McMahon, he just doesn’t hit enough for this team’s needs, a career high 98 wRC+ so far this year and a 90 wRC+ over 2,550 career PAs.
  9. sveumrules
    Mejia & Megill are the only up/down relievers on the roster right now and Justin Wilson will be taking one of those spots once his rehab assignment is up in a couple days. Somebody(s) from the rotation will have to go back to the bullpen when Woodruff and Miley are back. Sounds like Ashby is on track to return at some point in a relief role too. Would hope any relief addition is for a smaller price than Gasser or Rodriguez, especially after Reese Olson for Daniel Norris last deadline.
  10. sveumrules
    With Winker at a 66 wRC+ and Rowdy at 79, even a couple league average bats would be game changers for this offense. My guess is they try to acquire a couple of those kinda guys at the deadline and then use Hiura, Urias, Toro (if they aren’t part of those trades) or maybe even Black/Chourio (if they remain ridiculously hot) to possibly supplement the offense over the last two months.
  11. sveumrules
    Renfroe is at 101 wRC+ and 1.0 WAR so far. That'd be a boost over what we've gotten from RF, but he'll need to get pretty hot to match last year's 124 wRC+ and 2.5 WAR. Given the depth of OF in the system, I'd rather have Peguero 38 IP | 65 ERA- | 75 FIP- | +1.88 WPA at the minimum with the additional years of team control. Wong is at -1.2 WAR and a 33 wRC+, he's been even worse than Winker (66 wRC+, -0.8 WAR).
  12. sveumrules
    McMahon is projected for something like a defense heavy 11 WAR over the next four seasons with $56M owed over that time, so I’d say he has slightly positive trade value. Problem is he’s got a career best 101 wRC+ so far this year. Coming into the year he had an 89 wRC+ in 2,151 career PAs. Teams typically want more offense than that out of 3B no matter how good the glove is. About that glove. Coors also inflates the defensive metrics of good infielders because the Rockies target ground ball pitchers and Coors has more balls in play that any other stadium. McMahon is at something like +15 DRS | +10 OAA per full season since 2020. If teams think he is more of a +5-10 fielder than a +10-15 fielder that shaves two to four wins of that 11 WAR four year projection too.
  13. sveumrules
    Moore definitely has the edge as far as age relative to league, but average age is 1.5 years older between the Southern & Midwest leagues and Zamora missed some time as a 2020 draftee and then with injury after only 24 G last year so that eats into some of the raw age difference. I guess for me if two guys are around the same FV tier, and neither is an offensive juggernaut, give me the AA SS over the A+ 2B.
  14. sveumrules
    The one guy on the list I’m not seeing it for is Robert Moore. Not incredibly young for his level (-1.2 years), bad SB vs CS (14 to 10), only a 105 wRC+. Probably more of a 2B than SS. Guess the plate discipline is okay at 10.3 BB% to 16.8 K%? I had Zamora over him because even with his struggles he’s still more viable at SS, and also performing better (113 wRC+, 13 SB vs 3 CS) at a higher level. Also had Dylan O’Rae and Filippo Di Turi over Moore at the end of the list because even with their limitations and higher volatility as guys still in complex ball there is at least a little more to dream on there.
  15. sveumrules
    You are conflating external evaluations with fan opinion. Of course fans were upset to lose Kelly, he is a talented arm with potential they'd been following for years through the minors. But there is a big difference between being a relief prospect who gets traded because his 40 man deadline is coming up and the team doesn't think he is worth the spot yet (Kelly's situation) and a CF prospect who has been ranked among the very best prospects in the game (Chourio's situation).
  16. sveumrules
    Renfroe is getting paid 12 million (through arbitration, not as a free agent) because he has put up 2.4 WAR and 2.7 WAR the last two full seasons. That's the type of production the Angels were hoping to trade for. Joc Pederson got 19 million on the QO because he posted a 145 OPS+ last year. The Giants were paying for something hopefully closer to that than 114 OPS+ he has delivered so far this year. Why didn't you mention Kevin Kiermaier (2.9 WAR for $9M) or Jeimer Candelario (2.9 WAR for $5M) on the other end of the spectrum who both actually signed one year FA deals?
  17. sveumrules
    This is pretty much where I'm at. My only real hope for the season is for Love to make it through mostly unscathed. Beyond that I'm just excited to see something "new", whatever that may be,
  18. sveumrules
    Offense has been coming around a little lately... First 19 Games (14-5): 103 wRC+ Next 49 Games (20-29): 79 wRC+ Last 29 Games (20-9): 92 wRC+ That 92 wRC+ doesn't include today's game, but it does go to show with even something resembling an average offense like we had to start the year and have been getting closer to approximating over the last month of so this is a very dangerous team.
  19. sveumrules
    2021 Starters Burnes (6.3 rWAR) Woodruff (6.3 rWAR) Peralta (4.5 rWAR) Lauer (2.8 rWAR) Houser (2.5 rWAR) 2022 Starters Burnes (5.3 rWAR) Woodruff (3.9 rWAR) Peralta (2.0 rWAR) Lauer (2.6 rWAR) Houser (-0.4 rWAR) It truly was a once in a generation starting pitching staff, because they dropped off from 22.4 rWAR in 2021 down to 13.4 rWAR in 2022. Those nine lost wins were a much bigger blow to the Brewers playoff hopes than trading Hader, who had been blowing up for two months before the deadline and didn’t find it again for another month after.
  20. sveumrules
    Looks like @Jim French Stepstool and @Playing Catch joined you putting him at the end of the top ten and there were a couple elevens too. The plate discipline (63 BB vs 71 K in 322 career PA) and wheels (33 SB vs 8 CS career) are shades of Tyler Black in a larger body. Obviously still young for his league and the 142 wRC+ is excellent, but the thing holding him back for me personally are the inconsistent batted ball results this year. I ended up putting him at #18, but I’ve got everyone from #12 onward in pretty much the same tier so I can see the case for having him higher.
  21. sveumrules
    So Tiers Something Like This... 01 Jackson Chourio Score: 835 02 Jeferson Quero Score: 773 03 Jacob Misiorowski Score: 744 04 Sal Frelick Score: 706 05 Tyler Black Score: 677 06 Robert Gasser Score: 526 07 Brock Wilken Score: 497 08 Abner Uribe Score: 478 09 Carlos F Rodriguez Score: 453 10 Luis Lara Score: 422 11 Eric Brown Jr Score: 391 12 Cooper Pratt Score: 360 13 Josh Knoth Score: 350 14 Eric Bitonti Score: 200 15 Mike Boeve Score: 194 16 Robert Moore Score: 173 17 Daniel Guilarte Score: 153 18 Luke Adams Score: 134 19 Justin Jarvis Score: 132 20 Yophery Rodriguez Score: 113
  22. sveumrules
    Jackson ChourioJacob MisiorowskiJeferson QueroTyler BlackSal FrelickRobert GasserCarlos F RodriguezAbner UribeLuis LaraBrock WilkenEric Brown JrDaniel GuilarteYophery RodriguezJosh KnothJustin JarvisLogan HendersonFreddy ZamoraLuke AdamsDylan O'RaeFilippo Di Turi
  23. sveumrules
    2017-19 (Jesus/Thames era) Brewers 1B posted a 123 wRC+ (8th) and 9.4 WAR (7th).
  24. sveumrules
    Cutch started 49 games in the OF last year, not even a third much less half and it was only that many because Cain was out of shape and quit. His 360 PAs at DH made him the 9th most regular DH in all of MLB for 2022.
  25. sveumrules
    Wander Franco (best player on best team in AL) is currently +3500 for AL MVP at Poto. *this post for informational purposes only sveumrules has no affiliation with any gambling services
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