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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Hiura has been HBP in 3.2% of his MLB plate appearances, compared to 1.5% of his AAA plate appearance this year before injury, and 7.9% of his AAA plate appearances since returning from injury. It would be unreasonable to expect him to maintain that 7.9% HBP rate if called up to the majors considering he has never really approached it previously.
  2. sveumrules
    Quote the numbers to no end, but 175 PA vs RHP and 96 PA as DH are miniscule samples with minimal predictive value. Over 321 PA vs RHP from 2020-21 Keston had an 82 wRC+ vs RHP. Getting back to the present, Keston simply hasn't been the same hitter at AAA pre and post injury this year... thru 5/12: 134 PA of 331/396/678 (154 wRC+) since 6/16: 127 PA of 282/409/408 (114 wRC+) He has lost a good deal of pop since the injury and his OBP is partly propped up by 10 HBP in those 127 PA.
  3. sveumrules
    McMahon is a perfectly cromulent player, but he is literally the embodiment of the kind of player OP was railing against in his OR.
  4. sveumrules
    Whither Cooper Hummel?
  5. sveumrules
    You mean the guy with a 91 wRC+ and +48 DRS for his career? He provides all his value via run prevention and is a below average hitter for 3B, even with his career best 101 wRC+ so far this year.
  6. sveumrules
    I bet they’d love to recoup some value on that deal. Gave up CJ Abrams (2.1 WAR this year), MacKenzie Gore (1.8 WAR) and James Wood (Top 5 prospect in MLB), plus Robert Hassell (Top 40ish at time of trade, struggling this year) and Jarlin Susana (19 yo pitcher with 3.90 ERA / 4.26 FIP in Carolina League). And so far the Padres got a trip to the NLCS out of it, and barring a miraculous run over the last two months a lost season. I would guess no one blows them away at the deadline and they instead extend Soto over the offseason plus sign Ohtani too (why not?) for a combined billion dollars.
  7. sveumrules
    If the Angles have gotten more out of their first round picks over the last ten years than the Brewers have, and we know for sure they have spent hundreds upon hundreds of millions more dollars on payroll than Milwaukee has over that same decade, how come the Angles have only gone 717-740 (16th) since 2014 while the Brewers have gone 761-699 (9th)?
  8. sveumrules
    Plus Houser when Woodruff/Miley are ready to return to the rotation.
  9. sveumrules
    The Brewers have gotten -1.7 WAR from 1B this year, worst in MLB. If they had gotten Santana's 1.0 WAR instead, their division lead would likely be a couple two tree game bigger. That's pretty impactful.
  10. sveumrules
    Best Wisconsin sports guitarist since (Steve) Vai Sikahema.
  11. sveumrules
    When Keston Hiura was 19 he had an 18.1 K% for UC-Irvine in the Big West conference. Chourio has a 19.6 K% as a 19 year old for Biloxi in the AA Southern League against players 4.7 years his senior.
  12. sveumrules
    Since 2019, Giolito is 9th in MLB in innings pitched (710), with a 90 ERA- and 87 FIP-. His 14.6 fWAR ranks 13th among 144 qualified starters over that stretch with his 13.9 rWAR coming in 20th. A good reminder that instead of becoming thee very best pitcher in baseball, sometimes top prospects “only” end up a Top 20 pitcher in MLB for a five season stretch, receiving Cy Young votes in three of those years.
  13. sveumrules
    I highly doubt the Cardinals would trade Arenado/Goldy to a division rival and vice versa, so your premise is faulty to begin with. If they did and the Brewers won the WS it might be an overpay or it might not. What if the Cardinals subsequently won two World Series with Chourio/Misio? Or for a tangible example that actually happened, what if the Brewers traded for Greinke to move the needle only to never make the World Series while the Royals won one and lost one with Cain, Escobar, and the guys they got for Odorizzi?
  14. sveumrules
    If the expectation is "overpay so much you make someone trade a player they had no intention of dealing in the first place"...then yeah, I don't think the Brewers will be doing that.
  15. sveumrules
    Which All Star bat would you target and which prospects would you be willing to surrender to facilitate the deal?
  16. sveumrules
    It's ridiculous to approach things responsibly? What kind of big time thinking move would you prefer to see them make?
  17. sveumrules
    Right, but they thought he was worth the gamble in spring. Now that the money is spent their best options to extract maximum value are via trade at the rapidly approaching deadline, or if no MLB team is hot to acquire him they can keep him through the end of the year as post-deadline depth since August waiver wire pickups don't exist anymore.
  18. sveumrules
    After the way this draft played out - and with Woodruff hurt, Adames underperforming and Burnes out of our price range - I'm more and more tempted to let them all play out the string in 2024, offer them each the QO, and then let Tod Johnson and company have fun in 2025 with all the extra picks and bonus pool cash.
  19. sveumrules
    Not Logical Comparing a hopeful DH to an everyday SS Black has a 156 wRC+ with superior plate discipline and base running numbers, so Hiura doesn't have the best stats in the system either.
  20. sveumrules
    Brantley was the last player named, but that slot was never for a throw in. The PTBNL was always going to be the 2nd best player in the deal. Believe it was reportedly between Lucroy, Brantley and Taylor Green depending on how certain conditions of the trade played out.
  21. sveumrules
    Toro: can be optioned back to AAA, okay-ish fielder, doesn’t K at a ridiculous rate. Hiura: out of options, can’t field, Ks at ridiculous rate. That’s the logic.
  22. sveumrules
    1B options are pretty uninspiring - Moose Reunion? (102 wRC+), Carlos Santana (98 wRC+), CJ Cron (92 wRC+, day to day due to his back), Dom Smith (91 wRC+). Even though he hasn’t played a ton of 1B (87 innings this year, 97 innings in 2019, 537 innings in 2015) I’d be fine rolling the dice on Canha over the above names. Getting one of Tommy Pham (129 wRC+, but day to day with a groin), Randal Grichuk (117 wRC+) or even Teoscar Hernandez (96 wRC+ but StatCast says there’s a lot of bad luck in there) for DH would be my first focus though. Don’t think Ohtani gets dealt, but if he does and it’s to TOR they have Vlad Jr and Brandon Belt (125 wRC+) at first/DH currently. Could swoop up Belt in that scenario. If LAA sells, Brandon Drury (122 wRC+) would be another good option, though it looks like he is currently rehabbing a shoulder.
  23. sveumrules
    FanGraphs has updated their team lists to include draftees with Pratt (#5), Knoth (#6) and Wilken (#11) all slotting into the 45 FV tier. Bitonti (#19) and Boeve (#29) landed in the 40 FV tier.
  24. sveumrules
    It would be really exciting for fans of intentional walks.
  25. sveumrules
    Devanney’s 136 wRC+ last year was in 56 PA, Jones posted his across 236 PA this year so over 4x the sample size. I agree that Jahmai isn’t long for the roster, but think he will be losing his spot to a deadline acquisition with some kind of MLB track record.
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